Energy Efficiency: Trends and Perspectives in the Southern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 21/December 2012

This paper has two objectives. First, it attempts to establish the potential of policies on energy efficiency and energy demand-side management in the southern Mediterranean region. Second, by examining past trends in energy intensity and trends up to 2030, it analyses the prospects and costs of such policies, compared with expected developments in the price of energy resources. Based on both analyses (MEDPRO WP4) and on prospects for growth (MEDPRO WP8), it seems that energy intensity in the Mediterranean should fall perceptibly by approximately 13% in the next 20 years. But given the programmed energy mix, this will not limit emissions of CO2, which are likely to increase by more than 90%. The paper first presents the rationale for demand-side management (DSM) policies. After a general discussion of concepts, it tackles the question of instruments and measures for implementing such policies, before posing the question of the cost-efficiency approach for monitoring the measures the authorities introduce. Secondly, the paper assesses energy consumption and energy efficiency in the countries of the southern Mediterranean and the ways in which their main economic sectors have changed in recent decades. The third section outlines the demand management measures introduced and, taking Tunisia and Egypt as examples, estimates the cost of such policies. The fourth and last section offers a forecast analysis of energy consumption in the Mediterranean up to 2030, highlighting probable trends in terms of final consumption, energy intensity, energy mix and emissions of CO2. The section concludes with estimates in terms of cost, comparing objectives for lower intensity, results in terms of resource savings and the types of costs this approach represents.

The Medical Advisory Committee of the President's Committee on Employment of the Handicapped presents alcoholism and substance abuse, trends and choices : a report of the proceedings of a panel discussion held at the annual meeting of the President's Committee on Employment of the Handicapped, May 4, 1983, Washington, D.C. /

Cover title: Alcoholism and substance abuse, trends and choices.

Trends and issues 89 : criminal and juvenile justice in Illinois : focus on drugs, AIDS, DUI.

"March 1989."--T.p. verso.

Implications of Recent Trends in Telecommunications on Modeling and Simulation for the Telecommunication Industry

With this paper we would like to trigger a discussion on future needs of modeling and simulation techniques and tools for the telecommunication industry. We claim that the telecommunication market has undergone severe changes that affect the need for and type of simulations in industrial research. We suggest some approaches how to address these new challenges. We believe that there is need for intensive research in the area.

Versenyképesség-történetek - Nemzetgazdasági versenyképességről szóló vélekedések összehasonlító elemzése = Narratives on Competitiveness – A Comparative Analysis of Perceptions and Concepts about National Competitiveness

The scope of the present study is twofold. First, through in-depth interviews, it aims to explore the perception and concepts of non-political leaders (Deputy State Secretaries and Heads of Department) of the Hungarian economic bureaucracy concerning the competitiveness of the Hungarian economy. Second, it compares the obtained results to the perception and concepts salient in the political and business sphere as well as in the methodology of the international competitiveness rankings. The analysis covers issues of competitiveness such as (1) problems of the competitiveness of Hungarian economy, (2) directions of good policy, (3) agents of competitiveness, (4) future of the Hungarian economy, (5) political obstacles of good policy.

An assessment of natural and human disturbance effects on Mexican ecosystems: current trends and research gaps

Mexico harbors more than 10% of the planet’s endemic species. However, the integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems is experiencing rapid transformation under the influence of a wide array of human and natural disturbances. In order to disentangle the effects of human and natural disturbance regimes at different spatial and temporal scales, we selected six terrestrial (temperate montane forests, montane cloud forests, tropical rain forests, tropical semi-deciduous forests, tropical dry forests, and deserts) and four aquatic (coral reefs, mangrove forests, kelp forests and saline lakes) ecosystems. We used semiquantitative statistical methods to assess (1) the most important agents of disturbance affecting the ecosystems, (2) the vulnerability of each ecosystem to anthropogenic and natural disturbance, and (3) the differences in ecosystem disturbance regimes and their resilience. Our analysis indicates a significant variation in ecological responses, recovery capacity, and resilience among ecosystems. The constant and widespread presence of human impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is reflected either in reduced area coverage for most systems, or reduced productivity and biodiversity, particularly in the case of fragile ecosystems (e.g., rain forests, coral reefs). In all cases, the interaction between historical human impacts and episodic high intensity natural disturbance (e.g., hurricanes, fires) has triggered a reduction in species diversity and induced significant changes in habitat distribution or species dominance. The lack of monitoring programs assessing before/after effects of major disturbances in Mexico is one of the major limitations to quantifying the commonalities and differences of disturbance effects on ecosystem properties.

Essays on Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles

This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

Time trends and predictors of mortality from ill-defined causes in old age: 9 year folllow-up of the Bambuí cohort study (Brazil)

The study objective was to examine differentials in time trends and predictors of deaths assigned to symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions in comparison with other ill-defined conditions (ill-defined cardiovascular diseases, cancer and injury) in a population-based cohort study. Of 1,606 baseline participants aged 60 years and over, 524 died during 9-year follow-up and were included in this study. Deaths coded to "symptoms" declined by 77% in the period from 1997-1999 to 2003-2005. Deaths coded to other ill-defined conditions remained unchanged. The calendar period 2003-2005 (RR = 0.25; 95%CI: 0.09-0.70) and in-hospital deaths (RR = 0.16; 95%CI: 0.08-0.34) were independently associated with "symptoms", but not with other ill-defined conditions. Baseline socio-demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were not predictors of these outcomes. International and national agencies have focused on the reduction of deaths assigned to "symptoms" to improve the registration of vital statistics, while other ill-defined conditions have received little attention. Our data provide evidence supporting the need to redress this situation.

Who fails to complete tuberculosis treatment? Temporal trends and risk factors for treatment interruption in a community-based directly observed therapy programme in a rural district of South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.

Percutaneous absorption of sunscreen agents from liquid paraffin: Self-association of octyl salicylate and effects on skin flux

This study provides an investigation of the availability of octyl salicylate (OS), a common sunscreen agent, from liquid paraffin and the effect of OS on skin permeability. A model membrane system to isolate the vehicle effect from membrane permeability has been developed. Partitioning of OS between liquid paraffin and aqueous receptor phases was conducted. Partition coefficients increased with increase in OS concentration. A range of OS concentrations in liquid paraffin was diffused across human epidermis and synthetic membranes into 4% bovine serum albumin in phosphate-buffered saline and 50% ethanol. Absorption profiles of OS obtained from silicone and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) membranes were similar to each other but higher than for the high-density polyethylene [HDPE (3 times)] membrane and human epidermis (15 times). The steady state fluxes and apparent permeability coefficients (K-p') obtained from the diffusion studies showed the same trends with all membranes, except for the HDPE membrane which showed greater increase in flux and K-p' at concentrations above 30%. IR spectra showed that several bands of OS were shifted with concentrations, and the molecular models further suggested that the main contribution to the self-association is from non-1,4 van der Waals interactions.

Systemic and Local Inflammation in Peritoneal Dialysis: Mechanisms, Biomarkers and Effects on Outcome

Thanks to the technological development in peritoneal dialysis (PD) during the last three decades, the most important problem nowadays for the nephrologists is the maintenance of the long-term function of the peritoneal membrane. Although PD may exert an early survival benefit as compared with hemodialysis (HD), long-term PD is often associated with histopathological alterations in the peritoneal membrane that are linked to peritoneal ultrafiltration deficit and increased mortality risk. These alterations are closely related to the presence of a chronic activated (local and systemic) inflammatory response. PD itself may have other factors associated that could further modulate the inflammatory response, such as the bioincompatibility of dialysis solutions, fluid overload and changes in the body composition. Understanding the pathophysiology of inflammation in PD is essential for the adoption of adequate strategies to improve both membrane and patient survival. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya: Main indicators, trends and limitations

Indicators of gender inequality, poverty and human development in Kenya are examined. Significant and rising incidence of absolute poverty occurs in Kenya and women are more likely to be in poverty than men. Female/male ratios in Kenyan decision-making institutions are highly skewed against women and they experience unfavourable enrolment ratios in primary, secondary and tertiary institutions. The share of income earned by women is much lower than men's share. General Kenyan indicators highlight declining GDP per capita, increased poverty rates especially for women, reduced life expectancy, a narrowing of the difference in female/male life expectancy rates, increased child mortality rates and an increase in the female child mortality rates. This deterioration results in an increased socio-economic burden on women, not adequately captured in the HPI, HDI, GDI and GEM. This paper advocates the use of household level gender disaggregated data because much gender inequality occurs in and emanates from the household level where culture plays a very important role in allocation of resources and decision-making. Because most human development indicators are aggregates or averages, they can be misleading. They need to be supplemented by distributional and disaggregated data as demonstrated in the Kenyan case. The importance is emphasised of studying coping mechanisms of household/families for dealing with economic hardship and other misfortunes, such AIDS.

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

Effect of storage time and conditions on the seed coat colour of Australian adzuki beans

Two varieties of adzuki beans (Vigna angularis), Bloodwood and Erimo, were stored at temperatures of 10, 20 or 30degreesC, and relative humidities (RH) 40 or 65%, and samples were analysed at 0, 1.5, 3 and 6 months. Storage at 30degreesC for > 1.5 months caused a significant decrease in the a(star) and b(star) colour values and darkening of the seed coat. Beans stored at 65% RH had lower L-star but higher a(star) and b(star) colour values than those stored at 40% RH. Bloodwood and Erimo samples showed similar trends in colour during storage. The best storage conditions for the preservation of the adzuki colour were 10degreesC and 65% RH. The Australian beans had lower L-star, a(star) and b(star) colour values than Japanese Erimo-shouzu beans and storage increased the difference.