Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

Distributed optimization in transportation and logistics networks

Many important problems in communication networks, transportation networks, and logistics networks are solved by the minimization of cost functions. In general, these can be complex optimization problems involving many variables. However, physicists noted that in a network, a node variable (such as the amount of resources of the nodes) is connected to a set of link variables (such as the flow connecting the node), and similarly each link variable is connected to a number of (usually two) node variables. This enables one to break the problem into local components, often arriving at distributive algorithms to solve the problems. Compared with centralized algorithms, distributed algorithms have the advantages of lower computational complexity, and lower communication overhead. Since they have a faster response to local changes of the environment, they are especially useful for networks with evolving conditions. This review will cover message-passing algorithms in applications such as resource allocation, transportation networks, facility location, traffic routing, and stability of power grids.

Transportation of Children in Ground Ambulances: Professionals' Knowledge and Safety Measures

Background: The transport of children in ground ambulances is a rarely studied topic worldwide. The ambulance vehicle is a unique and complex environment with particular challenges for the safe, correct and effective transportation of patients. Unlike the well developed and readily available guidelines on the safe transportation of a child in motor vehicles, there is a lack on consistent specifications for transporting children in ambulances. Nurses are called daily to transfer children to hospitals or other care centers, so safe transport practices should be a major concern. Purpose: to know which are the safety precautions and specific measures used in the transport of children in ground ambulances by nurses and firefighters and to identify what knowledge these professionals had about safe modes of children transportation in ground ambulances. Methods: In this context, an exploratory - descriptive study and quantitative analysis was conducted. A questionnaire was completed by 135 nurses and firefighters / ambulance crew based on 4 possible children transport scenarios proposed by the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) and covered 5 different children´s age groups (new born children, 1 to 12 months; 1 to 3 years old; 4 to 7 years old and 8 to 12 years old). Results: The main results showed a variety of safety measures used by the professionals and a significant difference between their actual mode of transportation and the mode they consider to be the ideal considering security goals. In addition, findings showed that achieved scores related to what ambulance crews do in the considered scenarios reflect mostly satisfactory levels of transportation rather than optimum levels of safety, according to NHTSA recommendations. Variables as gender, educational qualifications, occupational group and local where professionals work seem to influence the transport options. Female professionals and nurses from pediatric units appear to do a safer transportation of children in ground ambulances than other professionals. Conclusion: Several professionals refereed unawareness of the safest transportation options for children in ambulances and did not to know the existence of specific recommendations for this type of transportation. The dispersion of the results suggests the need for investment in professional training and further regulation for this type of transportation.

Transportation of Children In Ground Ambulances: Professionals' Knowledge and Safety Measures.

Summary The transport of children in ground ambulances is a rarely studied topic worldwide. The ambulance vehicle is a unique environment with particular challenges for the safe, correct and effective transportation of patients. Unlike the well developed and available guidelines on the transportation of children in motor vehicles, there is a lack on specifications for transporting children in ambulances. Nurses are called daily to transfer children to hospitals or other care centres, so safe transport practices should be a major concern. Methods An exploratory - descriptive study and quantitative analysis was conducted. The safety measures used by the professionals in the transportation of children in ambulances were analysed based on the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) recommendations. A questionnaire was applied to 135 nurses and firefighters/crew of Portuguese ambulances using 4 possible transport situations and covering 5 paediatric age groups. Results There are a variety of safety measures used by professionals and a significant difference between actual mode of transportation and the mode they consider to be the ideal. In addition, findings showed that scores related to what ambulance crews do in these scenarios reflect most satisfactory levels of transportation rather than the optimum levels, according to NHTSA recommendations. Variables as gender, educational qualifications, occupational group and local where professionals work seem to influence the transport options. Female professionals and pediatric nurses do a safer transportation of children in ambulances than other professionals. Conclusion The results suggest the need for investment in professional training and further regulation for this type of transportation.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

Variables Associated With The Performance Of Centers For Dental Specialties In Brazil.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Centers for Dental Specialties (CDS) in the country and associations with sociodemographic indicators of the municipalities, structural variables of services and primary health care organization in the years 2004-2009. The study used secondary data from procedures performed in the CDS to the specialties of periodontics, endodontics, surgery and primary care. Bivariate analysis by χ2 test was used to test the association between the dependent variable (performance of the CDS) with the independents. Then, Poisson regression analysis was performed. With regard to the overall achievement of targets, it was observed that the majority of CDS (69.25%) performance was considered poor/regular. The independent factors associated with poor/regular performance of CDS were: municipalities belonging to the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, with lower Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and reduced time to deployment. HDI and population density are important for the performance of the CDS in Brazil. Similarly, the peculiarities related to less populated areas as well as regional location and time of service implementation CDS should be taken into account in the planning of these services.

Sexual dysfunction in epilepsy: identifying the psychological variables

In order to evaluate the psychological variables that affect sexual dysfunction (SD) in epilepsy, where compared 60 epileptics (Group 1) with 60 healthy individuals (Group 2), through the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (Spielberger et al., 1970), Beck Depression Inventory (Beck, 1974) and Sexual Behavior Interview (Souza, 1995). Sexual dysfunction (SD), anxiety and depression were found more frequently in Group 1 than in Group 2 and were not related to sex. Variables such as the onset duration and frequency of seizures as well as the use to medication were not associated with SD. Temporal lobe epilepsy was related to SD (p = 0.035) but not to anxiety or depression. Anxiety and depression were related to SD in both groups. Perception in controlling the seizures was closely related to anxiety (p = 0) and depression (p = 0.009). We conclude that psychological factors play an important role in the alteration of sexual behavior in epileptics and that suitable attention must be given to the control of these variables.

Identification of family variables in parents' groups of children with epilepsy

OBJECTIVE: To verify the effectiveness of the support group in the identification of family variables linked to epilepsy. METHOD: Pre-test were applied to parents of 21 children with benign epilepsy of childhood recently diagnosed, from 5 to 15 years, who participated in the groups at HC/Unicamp. There was a presentation of an educational video, discussion and application of the post-test 1. After six months, the post-test 2 was applied. RESULTS: The beliefs were: fear of swallowing the tongue during the seizures (76.19%) and of a future mental disease (66.67%). Facing the epilepsy, fear and sadness appeared. 76.19% of the parents presented overprotection and 90.48%, expected a new seizure. In the post-test 1, the parents affirmed that the information offered had modified the beliefs. In the post-test 2, 80.95% didn't report great doubts about epilepsy and 90.48% considered their relationship with their children better. CONCLUSIONS: The demystification of beliefs supplied from the groups influenced the family positively, prevented behavior alterations and guaranteed effective care in the attendance to the child with epilepsy.

Confiabilidade da informação sobre hospitalizações por causas externas de um hospital público em São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brasil

OBJETIVO: Conhecer a qualidade dos dados de internação por causas externas em São José dos Campos, São Paulo. MÉTODO: Foram estudadas as internações pelo Sistema Único de Saúde por lesões decorrentes de causas externas no primeiro semestre de 2003, no Hospital Municipal, referência para o atendimento ao trauma no Município, por meio da comparação dos dados registrados no Sistema de Informações Hospitalares com os prontuários de 990 internações. A concordância das variáveis relativas à vítima, à internação e ao agravo foi avaliada pela taxa bruta de concordância e pelo coeficiente Kappa. As lesões e as causas externas foram codificadas segundo a 10ª revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, respectivamente, capítulos XIX e XX. RESULTADOS: A taxa de concordância bruta foi de boa qualidade para as variáveis relativas à vítima e à internação, variando de 89,0% a 99,2%. As lesões tiveram concordância ótima, exceto os traumatismos do pescoço (k=0,73), traumatismos múltiplos (k=0,67) e fraturas do tórax (k=0,49). As causas externas tiveram concordância ótima para acidentes de transporte (k=0,90) e quedas (k=0,83). A confiabilidade foi menor para agressões (k=0,50), causas indeterminadas (k=0,37), e complicações da assistência médica (k=0,03). Houve concordância ótima nos acidentes de transporte em pedestres, ciclistas e motociclistas. CONCLUSÃO: A maioria das variáveis de estudo teve boa qualidade no nível de agregação analisado. Algumas variáveis relativas à vítima e alguns tipos de causas externas necessitam de aperfeiçoamento da qualidade dos dados. O perfil da morbidade hospitalar encontrado confirmou os acidentes de transporte como importante causa externa de internação hospitalar no Município.

Influência do local de nascimento e do transporte sobre a morbimortalidade de recém-nascidos prematuros

OBJETIVO: Verificar a influência do local de nascimento e do transporte sobre a morbimortalidade de recém-nascidos prematuros na Região Sul do Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudo de coorte com recém-nascidos prematuros transferidos para a unidade de tratamento intensivo de referência (grupo transporte = 61), tendo sido acompanhados até a alta. Os dados sobre o atendimento no hospital de origem e transporte foram obtidos no momento da internação. Esse grupo foi comparado com neonatos da maternidade de referência, pareados por idade gestacional (grupo controle = 123), tendo como desfecho primário o óbito e desfechos secundários as alterações da glicemia, temperatura e saturação de oxigênio no momento da internação e a incidência de enterocolite necrosante, displasia broncopulmonar e sepses. Na associação entre as variáveis e o desfecho, foi utilizado o risco relativo. Foi adotado um nível de significância de α = 5% e β = 90%. RESULTADOS: A distância média percorrida foi de 91 km. A idade gestacional média foi de 34 semanas. Entre os recém-nascidos transferidos, 23% (n = 14) não tiveram atendimento pediátrico na sala de parto. No transporte, 33% dos recém-nascidos foram acompanhados por pediatra, e os equipamentos utilizados foram: incubadora (57%), bomba de infusão (13%), oxímetro (49%) e aparelho para aferição da glicemia (21%). O grupo transporte apresentou maior incidência de hiperglicemia, risco relativo (RR) = 3,2 (2,3-4,4), hipoglicemia, RR = 2,4 (1,4-4,0), hipertermia, RR = 2,5 (1,6-3,9), e hipoxemia, RR = 2,2 (1,6-3,0). Foram observados 18% de óbitos no grupo dos transferidos e 8,9% no grupo controle, RR = 2,0 (1,0-2,6). CONCLUSÕES: A pesquisa expõe deficiências no atendimento e transporte dos recém-nascidos, sendo necessária uma melhor organização do atendimento perinatal e do transporte na região nordeste do Rio Grande do Sul.

Distúrbios psíquicos menores e condições de trabalho em motoristas de caminhão

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de distúrbios psíquicos menores e identificar estressores associados entre motoristas de caminhão. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal conduzido com 460 motoristas de caminhão de uma transportadora de cargas das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil, em 2007. Os trabalhadores preencheram questionário com dados sociodemográficos, estilos de vida e condições de trabalho. As variáveis independentes foram condições de trabalho, incluindo estressores ocupacionais, satisfação e demanda-controle no trabalho. O desfecho avaliado foi a ocorrência de distúrbios psíquicos menores. Foram realizadas análises de regressão logística univariada e múltipla. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de distúrbios psíquicos menores foi de 6,1 por cento. Os estressores mais citados foram congestionamentos, controle de rastreamento e jornada extensa de trabalho. A alta demanda no trabalho, o baixo apoio social e a jornada extensa diária referidos pelos motoristas estiveram associados aos distúrbios psíquicos menores. CONCLUSÕES: O trabalho em jornadas extensas foi associado à ocorrência de distúrbios psíquicos menores, tanto na análise das condições gerais de trabalho quanto como fator referido como estressor pelos motoristas. A regulamentação da jornada de trabalho com limitação de horas de trabalho diário é, portanto, uma medida necessária para a redução da chance de desenvolvimento de distúrbios psíquicos menores em motoristas

Vidas arriscadas: uma reflexão sobre a relação entre o número de gestações e mortalidade materna

Este estudo teve por objetivo identificar o risco e os fatores associados à mortalidade materna de multigestas (cinco ou mais gestações). Descreve a tendência da Taxa de Fecundidade Total (TFT) e da Razão de Mortalidade Materna (RMM) de 1998 a 2004 no Paraná. Apresenta uma análise dos 822 óbitos maternos deste período, o cálculo da Razão de Mortalidade Materna Específica, o Risco Relativo, a freqüência e o Odds Ratio para algumas variáveis segundo número de gestações. Analisa também as causas e a evitabilidade dos óbitos maternos. Os resultados apontaram TFT baixa (1,8 filhos por mulher) e a RMM elevada (69,7/100.000 nascidos vivos) no Paraná em 2004. Um quarto dos 822 óbitos maternos (206) era de multigestas (cinco ou mais gestações), o risco relativo de morte materna foi seis vezes superior do que para as mulheres com até duas gestações, e os perfis sociodemográfico e o reprodutivo foram mais desfavoráveis para aquele grupo de mulheres. A baixa escolaridade, a idade igual ou acima de 30 anos e o pré-natal com menos de quatro consultas apresentaram associação com o maior número de gestações. A proporção de mortes por causas obstétricas indiretas, hemorragias e aborto, foi maior entre as multigestas, e cerca de 90% dos óbitos deste grupo foi considerado evitável. Concluiu-se que o monitoramento das multigestas com idade avançada e em desvantagem social, bem como ações efetivas de planejamento familiar, e serviços obstétricos qualificados para gestação de alto risco são medidas que podem contribuir para a redução da mortalidade materna

Analysis of the effects of conical indentation variables on the indentation response of elastic-plastic materials through factorial design of experiment

In this work, the effects of conical indentation variables on the load-depth indentation curves were analyzed using finite element modeling and dimensional analysis. A factorial design 2(6) was used with the aim of quantifying the effects of the mechanical properties of the indented material and of the indenter geometry. Analysis was based on the input variables Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta, E, and h(max). The dimensional variables E and h(max) were used such that each value of dimensionless Y/E was obtained with two different values of E and each value of dimensionless R/h(max) was obtained with two different h(max) values. A set of dimensionless functions was defined to analyze the effect of the input variables: Pi(1) = P(1)/Eh(2), Pi(2) = h(c)/h, Pi(3) = H/Y, Pi(4) = S/Eh(max), Pi(6) = h(max)/h(f) and Pi(7) = W(P)/W(T). These six functions were found to depend only on the dimensionless variables studied (Y/E, R/h(max), n, theta). Another dimension less function, Pi(5) = beta, was not well defined for most of the dimensionless variables and the only variable that provided a significant effect on beta was theta. However, beta showed a strong dependence on the fraction of the data selected to fit the unloading curve, which means that beta is especially Susceptible to the error in the Calculation of the initial unloading slope.

Depressive symptoms in old age: relations among sociodemographic and self-reported health variables

Background: Depression in old age is a complex multifactorial phenomenon that is influenced by several biopsychosocial variables. Depressive symptoms are associated with the presence of chronic diseases, with being female, with low education and low income levels, and with poor perceived health assessment. In impoverished areas, older adults may have more physical disability, as they may have less access to health services. Therefore, they may be more likely to report depressive symptoms. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional research was undertaken using data from the FIBRA study conducted in Ermelino Matarazzo, a poor subdistrict of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The participants comprised 303 elderly people, aged 65 years and over, who attended a single-session data collection effort carried out at community centers. The protocol comprised sociodemographic and self-reported health variables, and the Geriatric Depression Scale. Results: The majority of the subjects reported five or fewer symptoms of depression (79.21%), reported one or two self-reported chronic diseases (56.86%), declared themselves to have one or two self-reported health problems (46.15%), and had good perceived health assessment (40.27%). The presence of depressive symptoms was associated with a higher number of self-reported health problems, poor perceived health assessment, and lower schooling levels, in the total sample and in analyses including men only. For women, depressive symptoms were associated with the number of self-reported health problems and family income. Conclusion: The presence of health problems, such as falls and memory problems, lower perceived health, and low education (and low family income for women) were associated with a higher presence of depressive symptoms among elderly people in this poor area of Sao Paulo.

Neural network model for designing automotive devices using SMD LED

The advantages offered by the electronic component LED (Light Emitting Diode) have resulted in a quick and extensive application of this device in the replacement of incandescent lights. In this combined application, however, the relationship between the design variables and the desired effect or result is very complex and renders it difficult to model using conventional techniques. This paper consists of the development of a technique using artificial neural networks that makes it possible to obtain the luminous intensity values of brake lights using SMD (Surface Mounted Device) LEDs from design data. This technique can be utilized to design any automotive device that uses groups of SMD LEDs. The results of industrial applications using SMD LED are presented to validate the proposed technique.