A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Use of Sugar Cane Vinasse to Mitigate Aluminum Toxicity to Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Owing to its toxicity, aluminum (Al), which is one of the most abundant metals, inhibits the productivity of many cultures and affects the microbial metabolism. The aim of this work was to investigate the capacity of sugar cane vinasse to mitigate the adverse effects of Al on cell growth, viability, and budding, as the likely result of possible chelating action. For this purpose, Fleischmann`s yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used in growth tests performed in 125-mL Erlenmeyer flasks containing 30 mL of YED medium (5.0 g/L yeast extract plus 20 g/L glucose) supplemented with the selected amounts of either vinasse or Al in the form of AlCl(3) center dot A H(2)O. Without vinasse, the addition of increasing levels of Al up to 54 mg/L reduced the specific growth rate by 18%, whereas no significant reduction was observed in its presence. The toxic effect of Al on S. cerevisiae growth and the mitigating effect of sugar cane vinasse were quantified by the exponential model of Ciftci et al. (Biotechnol Bioeng 25:2007-2023, 1983). The cell viability decreased from 97.7% at the start to 84.0% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 92.3% with vinasse. On the other hand, the cell budding increased from 7.62% at the start to 8.84% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 17.8% with vinasse. These results demonstrate the ability of this raw material to stimulate cell growth and mitigate the toxic effect of Al.

Herbicide distribution in soils of a riparian forest and neighboring sugar cane field

Riparian forests are protected by Brazilian law to preserve rivers and their margins. A sugar cane field adjacent to a strip of young riparian forest bordering an older riparian forest along a stream was used to study the riparian forest as a buffer zone to prevent pesticides pollution. Concentrations of the herbicides diuron, hexazinone and tebuthiuron were determined in different soil layers of a Red Yellow Oxisol during 2003 and 2004. The determination was done by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with reverse phase C-18 column, through two mobile phases. Diuron and hexazinone concentration diminished between the sugar cane and riparian forest as buffer strip demonstrating a protective effect. However, tebuthiuron had about four times higher concentrations in the old riparian forest compared to the other areas. Concentrations were higher in the surface and decreased in deeper soil layers in the old riparian forest suggesting that this herbicide probably was introduced by air pollution. This pesticide concentrated in the canopy could be washed by rain to the soil adjacent to the stream. Our data suggest that climate conditions were responsible for enhanced volatilization exposing the old riparian forest to more air pollution that was captured by the higher canopy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sugar and ethanol production as a rural development strategy in Brazil: Evidence from the state of Sao Paulo

Sugar and ethanol production are key components of Brazil`s rural development and energy strategies, yet in recent years sugar production has been widely criticized for its environmental and labor practices. This study examines the relationship between rural development and sugarcane, ethanol, and cattle production in the state of Sao Paulo. Our results suggest that the value added components of sugarcane production, which include sugar refining and ethanol production, may have a strong positive affect on local human development in comparison to primary agricultural production activities and other land uses. These results imply that sugar production, when accompanied by a local processing industry can stimulate rural development. However, this paper also highlights the significant environmental and social harms generated by the sugar industry at large, which may undermine its development benefits if not addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF FIVE SUGAR CANE PLANTERS

Brazil is the world biggest producer of sugar cane with an area of 7x10(6) hectares. Mainly the system used for planting is the semi-mechanized one, which consists in opening the furrows with a machine, manually allocating the fractioned stalks and then covering the furrows done by the machines. The great amount of human labor used in the semi-mechanized system is becoming harder to find and also more expensive, indicating the need of a fully mechanized operation. Currently in Brazil these agriculture machines industries offers six different types of fully mechanized sugar cane planters (two types of whole stalks for planting and four using mechanized harvested stalks known as billets). All of them plant in two furrows simultaneously in 1.5 m row spacing. This study analyzed five different machines and the following variables: Working Speed (km h(-1)); Effective Capacity (ha h(-1)), Drawbar Force (kgf), Draw Bar Power (in HP), Fuel Consumption (L h(-1)) and Costs (US$ ha(-1)) comparing them with the semi-mechanized system. This research also characterized the stalks for planting as viable gems number (%), non viable gems number (%) and billet length (m). And lastly the mechanized planting system is cheaper than the conventional one and none of the machines has an adequate mechanism for placing the right amount of sugar cane seed.

Nitrogen and potassium fertilization affect apple fruit quality in southern Brazil

Nitrogen (N) and potassium (K) are usually found in higher concentrations than other macronutrients in apple (Malus x domestica Borkh) fruits and are most frequently associated with changes in fruit quality. The aim of this article was to evaluate the effects of N and K fertilization on some fruit quality attributes of Fuji apple. The experiment was conducted at Sao Joaquim, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, during 2004 and 2005. A factorial design was used with N and K annual fertilizer rates (0, 50, 100, and 200 kg ha(-1) of N and K2O) replicated in three orchards. Fifteen days prior to harvest, three fruit samples were collected from each treatment and site. One sample was used for total soluble solid content (TSS), titratable acidity, pulp firmness, and fruit color parameter analyses, and the other samples were refrigerated in a conventional atmosphere for 3 and 6 months for subsequent determination of fruit quality. Nitrogen fertilization negatively affected fruit color, flesh firmness, and TSS content. These same variables were positively affected by K fertilization, except for flesh firmness.

Adaptation of an apple sooty blotch and flyspeck warning system for the Upper Midwest United States

A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

Antioxidant properties in cashew apple byproduct (Anacardium occidentale L.): effect on lipoperoxidation and on the polyunsaturated fatty acids profile in rats

The cashew apple (Anacardium occidentale L.) contains phenolic compounds usually related with antioxidant properties. Then, the aim of this study was to investigate its antioxidant capacity. The antioxidant capacity of the hydroalcoholic extract of the cashew apple pulp (EHAlc.) was assessed for the scavenging of the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH) by in vitro method and by an in vivo essay. For this essay a 30-day oral (gavage, EHAlc. 200 and 400 mg/kg) study was conducted in Wistar male rats, evaluating hepatic, plasma and brain tissues. In DPPH model, the extract demonstrated antioxidant activity of 95% (largest concentration, 1000 mu g/mL). There were found no relevant peroxidation comparing the treated animals with the control group. However, the treated group presented a lower level of brain lipoperoxidation. Also in the treated animals brain tissue was found the largest amount of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), mainly docosahexaenoic (DHA). Therqfore, the analyzed extract from cashew apple pulp clone CCP-76 contains effective natural antioxidants, responsible for free radical scavenging in vitro and also for decreasing the brain lipoperoxidation and keeping the PUFAS levels in Wistar rats.

Composition of phenolic acids content in apple (Malus sp) pomace

The present work aimed the study of phenolic acids composition in apple pomace of Gala and Fuji cultivars. Phenolic acids were fractionated in phenolic acids, esterified and insoluble and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Sixteen phenolic acids were identified in apple pomace samples. Total phenolic acids in apple pomace from Gala and Fuji cultivars were, in dry weight, 93.94 mg/g and 68.38 mg/g, respectively. Content of free phenolic acids in apple pomace from Gala cultivar was 29.11 mg/g and the following acids were identified: salicylic, protocatequinic, quinic, p-coumaric, gallic, propylgallate and synapic. Content of free phenolic acids in apple pomace from Fuji cultivar was 16.03 mg/g and the following acids were identified: salicylic, protocatequinic, gallic, ferulic and sinapic. Salicylic was the predominant free phenolic acids found in both cultivars, consisting of 91.67% and 63.57% of the free phenolic acids in Gala and Fuji cultivars, respectively. Chlorogenic acid (1.147 mg/g) was found only in apple pomace from Fuji cultivar. Content of esterified phenolic acids in apple pomace from Gala and Fuji cultivars were 53.75 mg/g and 48.29 mg/g, respectively. It was verified that the predominant esterified phenolic acid in pomace from apple Gala is derived from salicylic acid (52.76 mg/g). Acids derived from gallic acid (0.175 mg/g), propylgallate acid (0.198 mg/g), ferulic acid (0.159 mg/g) and sinapic acid (0.140 mg/g) were also found in Gala cultivar. Regarding to pomace from cultivar Fuji, the main esterified phenolic acid found is also derived from salicylic acid (47.42 mg/g) followed by gallic acid (0.270 mg/g), benzoic acid (0.194 mg/g) and sinapic acid (0.115 mg/g). Content of insoluble phenolic acids in apple pomace from Gala and Fugi cultivars were, in dry weight, 11.08 mg/g and 4.05 mg/g, respectively Insoluble phenolic acids derived from salicylic acid were found in higher concentrations in apple pomace from both cultivars.

Effect of modifiers for As, Cu and Pb determinations in sugar-cane spirits by GF AAS

Palladium plus magnesium nitrates with and without Ir, Ru and W were evaluated for the simultaneous determination of As, Cu and Pb in cachaca by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. For 20 mu L sample, 5 mu L Pd(NO(3))(2) and 3 mu L Mg(NO(3))(2) dispensed together onto the Ir-coated platform of the THGA, analytical curves in the 0-30.0 mu g L(-1) As, 0-1.50 mg L(-1) Cu and 0-60.0 mu g L(-1) Pb were built up and typical linear correlation coefficients were always better than 0.999. The limit of detection was 1.30 mu g L(-1) As, 140 mu g L(-1) Cu and 0.90 mu g L(-1) Pb. As, Cu and Pb contents in 10 cachaca samples agreed with those obtained by ICP-MS. Recoveries of spiked samples varied from 96% to 106% (As), 97% to 112% (Cu) and 92% to 108% (Pb). The relative standard deviation (n = 12) was typically 2.7%, 3.3% and 1.9%. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description of Gluconacetobacter sacchari sp. nov., a new species of acetic acid bacterium isolated from the leaf sheath of sugar cane and from the pink sugar-cane mealy bug

A new species of the genus Gluconacetobacter, for which the name Gluconacetobacter sacchari sp. nov. is proposed, was isolated from the leaf sheath of sugar cane and from the pink sugar-cane mealy bug, Saccharicoccus sacchari, found on sugar cane growing in Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia, The nearest phylogenetic relatives in the alpha-subclass of the Proteobacteria are Gluconacetobacter liquefaciens and Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus, which have 98.8-99.3% and 97.9-98.5% 16S rDNA sequence similarity, respectively, to members of Gluconacetobacter sacchari. On the basis of the phylogenetic positioning of the strains, DNA reassociation studies, phenotypic tests and the presence of the Q10 ubiquinone, this new species was assigned to the genus Gluconacetobacter. No single phenotypic characteristic is unique to the species, but the species can be differentiated phenotypically from closely related members of the acetic acid bacteria by growth in the presence of 0.01% malachite green, growth on 30% glucose, an inability to fix nitrogen and an inability to grow with the L-amino acids asparagine, glycine, glutamine, threonine and tryptophan when D-mannitol was supplied as the sole carbon and energy source. The type strain of this species is strain SRI 1794(T) (= DSM 12717(T)).

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Molecular diversity through sugar scaffolds

Monosaccharides provide an excellent platform to tailor molecular diversity by appending desired substituents at selected positions around the sugar scaffold. The presence of five functionalized and stereo-controlled centres on the sugar scaffolds gives the chemist plenty of scope to custom design molecules to a pharmacophore model. This review focuses on the peptidomimetic developments in this area, as well as the concept of tailoring structural and functional diversity in a library using carbohydrate scaffolds and how this can lead to increased hit rates and rapid identification of leads, which has promising prospects for drug development.

A costs structure analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies

The Brazil consolidated itself as the largest world producer of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol. The creation of the Programa Nacional do Alcool - PROALCOOL and the growing use of cars with flexible motors were some of the factors that helped to motivate still more the production. Evolutions in the agricultural and industrial research did the Brazilian competitiveness in sugar and ethanol globally elevated, what is evidenced when comparing the amount produced at the country and the production costs, which turned a big one differential. Therefore, the administration of costs is of great relevance to the sugar and ethanol companies, for representing a significant rationalization in the production processes, with economy of resources and the reach of better earnings, besides reducing the operational risk pertinent at the fixed costs of production. Thus, the present work has for objective to analyze the costs structure of sugar and ethanol companies of the Center-south area of the country through an empiric-analytical study based in methodologies and concepts extracted of the costs accounting. It is verified that great part of the costs and operational expenses have variable behavior, a positive factor for the sector reducing the operational risk of the activity. The main restraint of this study is the sample of five years and 10% of the number of plants in Brazil that although they represent 30% of the national production, don`t allow the generalization of the model.