Desenvolvimento de talentos no desporto : aspectos psicológicos

A presente investigação tem como principal objetivo compreender a relevância de diversos fatores sociodemográficos e psicossociais inerentes ao desenvolvimento do talento em contexto desportivo, numa perspectiva multidimensional. Procedeu-se a uma avaliação quantitativa de jogadores de futebol, integrados num clube de elite, com idades compreendidas entre os 13 e os 19 anos. No sentido de avaliar os construtos psicológicos considerados no presente estudo (motivação, perfecionismo, suporte parental, resiliencia, coping e compromisso) foram utilizados os seguintes questionários: Sport Motivation Scale - SMS (Pelletier et al., 1995); Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale – MPS (Frost, Marten, Lahart, & Rosenblate, 1990); Own Memories of Parental Rearing – EMBU (Perris, Jacobson, Lindstörm, Von Knorring, & Perris, 1980); Resilience Scale – RS (Wagnild & Young, 1993); Athletic Coping Skills – ACSI 28 (Smith, Schutz, Smoll, & Ptacek, 1995); e Elite Athlete Commitment Scale – EACS (Ramadas, Serpa, Rosado, Gouveia & Maroco, 2013). A significância da variável nível de prestação (elite/sub-elite; dispensados/retidos) sobre os diversos constructos psicológicos foi avaliada através da análise da covariância multivariada (MANCOVA), da análise de equações estruturais (CBSEM) e da técnica de míninos quadrados parciais (PLS). Os jogadores mais bem sucedidos (jogadores de elite e jogadores retidos) percecionaram maior suporte parental, demonstraram níveis mais elevados de compromisso, resiliência, autodeterminação, capacidade de adaptação e confronto, assim como um perfeccionismo ajustado. No que concerne às variáveis sociodemográficas, constatou-se que os jogadores retidos jogam predominantemente no segundo ano do respetivo grupo de idade e têm uma idade inferior aos jogadores dispensados. Os resultados obtidos poderão constituir um relevante suporte para futuros programas educacionais que incidam sobre temáticas relacionadas com os compromissos necessários à prossecução e manutenção de níveis de elite, estratégias de coping, gestão da rotina diária, e o papel dos pais no processo de formação do jovem desportista.

Envolvimento parental no desporto

O presente conjunto de investigações pretendeu estudar o envolvimento parental na competição desportiva de crianças e jovens. Baseado no modelo do envolvimento parental no desporto (Teques & Serpa, 2009), o estudo permitiu concretizar dois objectivos fundamentais. Primeiro, desenvolver um conjunto de escalas válidas e fidedignas para aceder aos constructos incluídos no modelo teórico. Segundo, testar as hipóteses fundamentadas na estrutura conceptual do modelo com o propósito de compreender (1) a razão porque os pais se envolvem no desporto dos filhos, (2) quais os comportamentos utilizados pelos pais durante o envolvimento, e (3) como é que o envolvimento influencia o contexto de realização do jovem atleta. No total, participaram voluntariamente 1620 pais e 1665 jovens atletas de vários desportos individuais e coletivos, com idades compreendidas entre os 9 e os 18 anos. A prossecução dos objectivos teve por base uma série de três estudos independentes. Os resultados do primeiro estudo sugerem que as crenças do papel parental, a auto-eficácia, a perceção das invocações oriundas do treinador e do jovem atleta, o tempo e energia disponíveis, e os conhecimentos e competências relacionam-se com as atividades de envolvimento dos pais. No segundo estudo, os resultados demonstraram que as perceções dos comportamentos parentais de encorajamento, reforço, instrução, e modelagem medeiam a relação entre os comportamentos reportados pelos pais e as variáveis psicológicas de auto-eficácia, auto-eficácia social, motivação intrínseca, e estratégias de autorregulação dos jovens. Os resultados do terceiro estudo indicam que as perceções dos comportamentos dos pais relacionam-se com a realização desportiva através dos efeitos de mediação da auto-eficácia, autoeficácia social e das estratégias de autorregulação. Implicações para a intervenção, limitações e direções futuras para a investigação são também discutidas.

Poor and Sick: Estimating the relationship between Household Income and Health

This study evaluates the effect of the individual‘s household income on their health at the later stages of working life. A structural equation model is utilised in order to derive a composite and continuous index of the latent health status from qualitative health status indicators. The endogenous relationship between health status and household income status is taken into account by using IV estimators. The findings reveal a significant effect of individual household income on health before and after endogeneity is taken into account and after a host of other factors which is known to influence health, including hereditary factors and the individual‘s locus of control. Importantly, it is also shown that the childhood socioeconomic position of the individual has long lasting effects on health as it appears to play a significant role in determining health during the later stages of working life.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Indirect likelihood inference

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let Zn be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of Zn. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a computationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

Development and Consequences of Referendum Campaigns in Switzerland, 1981-1999

Since the early 1990s, new forms of referendum campaigns have emerged in the Swiss political arena. In this paper, we examine how referendum campaigns have transformed in Switzerland, focusing on a number of features: their intensity, duration and inclusiveness (i.e., the variety of actors involved). These features are assumed to change in the long run in response to societal changes and in the short run as a function of variations in elite support. We further argue that public knowledge of ballot issues depends on the characteristics of campaigns. To formally test our hypotheses, we draw on advertisement campaigns in six major Swiss newspapers in the four weeks preceding each ballot from 1981 to 1999 and develop a structural equation model. We indeed find that the duration of referendum campaigns has increased over time, while their inclusiveness has decreased. Most importantly, we find that pub­lic knowledge is strongly related to the characteristics of campaigns

Consumption heterogenity over the business cycle

We study consumption heterogeneity over the business cycle. Using household panel data from 1984 to 2010 in the US we find that the welfare cost of the business cycle is non-negligible, once agents heterogeneity is taken into account, and sums to about 1% of yearly consumption. This is due to the structure of comovements between the different parts of the consumption distribution, in particular the tails are highly volatile and negatively related to each other. We also find that business cycle fluctuations originating from exogenous financial shocks only hit the top end of the consumption distribution and therefore reduce consumption inequality.

Motivating Employees of the Public Sector: Does Public Service Motivation Matter?

This article analyzes if, and to what extent, the public service motivation (PSM) construct has an added value to explain work motivation in the public sector. In order to address the specificity of PSM when studying work motivation, the theoretical model underlying this empirical study compares PSM with two other explanatory factors: material incentives, such as performance-related pay, and team relations and support, such as recognition by superiors. This theoretical model is then tested with data collected in a national survey of 3,754 civil servants at the Swiss municipal level. Results of a structural equations model clearly show the relevance of PSM. They also provide evidence for the importance of socio-relational motivating factors, whereas material incentives play an anecdotal role.

Coparenting and Toddler's Interactive Styles in Family Coalitions

The current study examined the coparenting and toddler's interactive styles in family coalitions. According to structural family theory, boundaries between generations are clear in alliances, but disturbed in coalitions: the parents look to the child to regulate their conflictual relationship and the child attempts to meet this need. In a normative sample studied longitudinally during the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation (LTP, N=38), 15 coalition cases were detected. Styles of coparenting and of child's interactions were determined and compared in coalition and alliance cases at 18 months. Findings confirm the structural family model by showing the specific ways in which the coparenting and the toddler's interactive styles are associated in 3 different patterns of coalitions: binding, detouring, and triangulation. They illustrate how the child's triangular capacity, or her ability to simultaneously communicate with both parents, is used to regulate the parents' relationship. They suggest that the LTP observational paradigm is a promising assessment method of early family interactions. They point to the importance of assessing early the child's contribution to family coalitions.

Univariate versus multivariate modeling of panel data

Panel data can be arranged into a matrix in two ways, called 'long' and 'wide' formats (LFand WF). The two formats suggest two alternative model approaches for analyzing paneldata: (i) univariate regression with varying intercept; and (ii) multivariate regression withlatent variables (a particular case of structural equation model, SEM). The present papercompares the two approaches showing in which circumstances they yield equivalent?insome cases, even numerically equal?results. We show that the univariate approach givesresults equivalent to the multivariate approach when restrictions of time invariance (inthe paper, the TI assumption) are imposed on the parameters of the multivariate model.It is shown that the restrictions implicit in the univariate approach can be assessed bychi-square difference testing of two nested multivariate models. In addition, commontests encountered in the econometric analysis of panel data, such as the Hausman test, areshown to have an equivalent representation as chi-square difference tests. Commonalitiesand differences between the univariate and multivariate approaches are illustrated usingan empirical panel data set of firms' profitability as well as a simulated panel data.

Spanish adaptation of the Expectancy Questionnaire (EQ) about alcohol effects in adolescents

Background: Alcohol-related expectancies are especially relevant in relation to alcohol consumption during adolescence. The main aim of this study was to adapt and translate into Spanish (Castilian) the Expectancy Questionnaire (EQ), and to study its psychometric properties in adolescents. Method: The sample was composed of 514 adolescents (57.20% female, mean age = 15.21; SD = .63) who completed the EQ and the alcohol consumption questionnaire AIS-UJI. Results: Confi rmatory factor analysis indicated that an eight-factor model, grouped into two general factors of positive and negative expectancies, had acceptable fi t indices. Cronbach’s alphas ranged from .75 to .96. Finally, the structural equation model showed that positive expectancies were positively related to alcohol use, whereas negative expectancies were negatively related to drinking. Conclusions: Results showed that the Spanish version of the EQ for adolescents is a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure expectancies about alcohol effects.

Computational toolbox towards evolutionary domain mapping of membrane proteins

Membrane proteins account for about 20% to 30% of all proteins encoded in a typical genome. They play central roles in multiple cellular processes mediating the interaction of the cell with its surrounding. Over 60% of all drug targets contain a membrane domain. The experimental difficulties of obtaining a crystal structural severely limits our ability or understanding of membrane protein function. Computational evolutionary studies of proteins are crucial for the prediction of 3D structures. In this project, we construct a tool able to quantify the evolutionary positive selective pressure on each residue of membrane proteins through maximum likelihood phylogeny reconstruction. The conservation plot combined with a structural homology model is also a potent tool to predict those residues that have essentials roles in the structure and function of a membrane protein and can be very useful in the design of validation experiments.

Effect of Cumulating Exposure to Abacavir on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channeling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS: We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS: A total of 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient-years). In a conventional Cox model, recent--but not cumulative--exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past 4 years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval: 1.43 to 2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6-36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS: Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.

Indirect likelihood inference (revised)

Standard indirect Inference (II) estimators take a given finite-dimensional statistic, Z_{n} , and then estimate the parameters by matching the sample statistic with the model-implied population moment. We here propose a novel estimation method that utilizes all available information contained in the distribution of Z_{n} , not just its first moment. This is done by computing the likelihood of Z_{n}, and then estimating the parameters by either maximizing the likelihood or computing the posterior mean for a given prior of the parameters. These are referred to as the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) and Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimators, respectively. We show that the IL estimators are first-order equivalent to the corresponding moment-based II estimator that employs the optimal weighting matrix. However, due to higher-order features of Z_{n} , the IL estimators are higher order efficient relative to the standard II estimator. The likelihood of Z_{n} will in general be unknown and so simulated versions of IL estimators are developed. Monte Carlo results for a structural auction model and a DSGE model show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

Computational studies of deformation in stainless steel rings due to torch heating

A support ring of AISI 304L stainless steel that holds vertical, parallel wires arranged in a circle forming a cylinder is studied. The wires are attached to the ring with heat-induced shrinkage. When the ring is heated with a torch the heat affected zone tries to expand while the adjacent cool structure obstructs the expansion causing upsetting. During cooling, the ring shrinks smaller than its original size clamping the wires. The most important requirement for the ring is that it should be as round as possible and the deformations should occur as overall shrinkage in the ring diameter. A three-dimensional nonlinear transient sequential thermo-structural Abaqus model is used together with a Fortran code that enters the heat flux to each affected element. The local and overall deformations in one ring inflicted by the heating are studied with a small amount of inspection on residual stresses. A variety of different cases are chosen to be studied with the model constructed to provide directional knowledge; torch flux with the means of speed, location of the wires, heating location and structural factors. The decrease of heating speed increases heat flux that rises the temperature increasing shrinkage. In a single progressive heating uneven distribution of shrinkage appears to the start/end region that can be partially fixed with using speeded heating’s to strengthen the heating of that region. Location of the wires affect greatly to the caused shrinkage unlike heating location. The ring structure affects also greatly to the shrinkage; smaller diameter, bigger ring height, thinner thickness and greater number of wires increase shrinkage.