The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

Performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market

This thesis investigates the performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market during the 2000-2015 sample period. In addition the performance of some value and value-momentum combination is examined. The data consists of all the publicly traded companies in the Swedish stock market between 2000-2015. P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/S ratios and 3, 6 and 12 months value criteria are used in the portfolio formation. In addition to single selection criteria, combination of P/E and P/B (aka. Graham number), the average ranking of the five value criteria and EV/EBIT – 3 month momentum combination is used as a portfolio-formation criterion. The stocks are divided into quintile portfolios based on each selection criterion. The portfolios are reformed once a year using the April’s price information and previous year’s financial information. The performance of the portfolios is examined based on average annual return, the Sharpe ratio and the Jensen alpha. The results show that the value-momentum combination is the best-performing portfolio both during the whole sample period and during the sub-period that started after the 2007-financial crisis.

Liquidity Risk in the Finnish Stock Market

This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. the conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. the inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Return Generating Process: A Macroeconomic Approach to Indian Stock Market

A study focusing on the identification of return generating factors and to the extent of their influence on share prices the outcome will be a tool for investment analysis in the hands of investors portfolio managers and mutual funds who are mostly concerned with changing share prices. Since the study takes into account the influence of macroeconomic variables on variations in share returns by using the outcome the government can frame out suitable policies on long term basis and that will help in nurturing a healthy economy and resultant stock market. As every company management tries to maximize the wealth of the share holders a clear idea about the return generating variables and their influence will help the management to frame various policies to maximize the wealth of the shareholders.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Corporate social performance and stock returns: UK evidence from disaggregate measures

This study examines the relation between corporate social performance and stock returns in the UK. We closely evaluate the interactions between social and financial performance with a set of disaggregated social performance indicators for environment, employment, and community activities instead of using an aggregate measure. While scores on a composite social performance indicator are negatively related to stock returns, we find the poor financial reward offered by such firms is attributable to their good social performance on the environment and, to a lesser extent, the community aspects. Considerable abnormal returns are available from holding a portfolio of the socially least desirable stocks. These relationships between social and financial performance can be rationalized by multi-factor models for explaining the cross-sectional variation in returns, but not by industry effects.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the brazilian stock market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the period 1976-1992. We also test a conditional APT modeI by using the difference between the 3-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from individual securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be important for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.