The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO2-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

Benthic foraminifera and sea level analyses from IODP Hole 310-M0005D

The course of sea-level fluctuations during Termination II (TII; the penultimate deglaciation), which is critical for understanding ice-sheet dynamics and suborbital climate variability, has yet to be established. This is partly because most shallow-water sequences encompassing TII were eroded during sea-level lowstands of the last glacial period or were deposited below the present sea level. Here we report a new sequence recording sea-level changes during TII in the Pleistocene sequence at Hole M0005D (water depth: 59.63 m below sea level [mbsl]) off Tahiti, French Polynesia, which was drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 310. Lithofacies variations and stratigraphic changes in the taxonomic composition, preservation states, and intraspecific test morphology of large benthic foraminifers indicate a deepening-upward sequence in the interval from Core 310-M0005D-26R (core depth: 134 mbsl) through -16R (core depth: 106 mbsl). Reconstruction of relative sea levels, based on paleodepth estimations using large benthic foraminifers, indicated a rise in sea level of about 90 m during this interval, suggesting its correlation with one of the terminations. Assuming that this rise in sea level corresponds to that during TII, after correcting for subsidence since the time of deposition, a highstand sea-level position would be 2 ± 15 m above present sea level (masl), which is generally consistent with highstand sea-level positions in MIS 5e (4 ± 2 masl). If this rise in sea level corresponds to that during older terminations, the subsidence-corrected highstand sea-level positions (30 ± 15 masl for Termination III and 54 ± 15 masl for Termination IV) are not consistent with reported ranges of interglacial sea-level highstands (-18 to 15 masl). Therefore, the studied interval likely records the rise in sea level and associated environmental changes during TII. In particular, the intervening cored materials between the two episodes of sea-level rise found in the studied interval might record the sea-level reversal event during TII. This conclusion is consistent with U/Th ages of around 133 ka, which were obtained from slightly diagenetically altered (i.e., < 1% calcite) in situ corals in the studied interval (Core 310-M0005D-20R [core depth: 118 mbsl]). This study also suggests that our inverse approach to correlate a stratigraphic interval with an approximate time frame could be useful as an independent check on the accuracy of uranium-series dating, which has been applied extensively to fossil corals in late Quaternary sea-level studies.

Calculated sea level records and deep ocean temperatures from DSDP and ODP sites

During the mid-Pleistocene transition the dominant 41 ka periodicity of glacial cycles transitioned to a quasi-100 ka periodicity for reasons not yet known. This study investigates the potential role of deep ocean hydrography by examining oxygen isotope ratios in benthic foraminifera. Oxygen isotope records from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean basins are separated into their ice volume and local temperature/hydrography components using a piece-wise linear transfer function and a temperature calibration. Although our method has certain limitations, the deep ocean hydrography reconstructions show that glacial deep ocean temperatures approached freezing point as the mid-Pleistocene transition progressed. Further analysis suggests that water mass reorganisation could have been responsible for these temperature changes, leading to such stable conditions in the deep ocean that some obliquity cycles were skipped until precessional forcing triggered deglaciation, creating the apparent quasi-100 ka pattern. This study supports previous work that suggests multiples of obliquity cycles dominate the quasi-100 ka glacial cycles with precession components driving deglaciations.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Middle to late Miocene oxygen isotope stratigraphy of ODP site 1085 (SE Atlantic): new constrains on Miocene climate variability and sea-level fluctuations

The middle Miocene delta18O increase represents a fundamental change in earth's climate system due to a major expansion and permanent establishment of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by some effect of deepwater cooling. The long-term cooling trend in the middle to late Miocene was superimposed by several punctuated periods of glaciations (Mi-Events) characterized by oxygen isotopic shifts that have been related to the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice-sheet and bottom water cooling. Here, we present a high-resolution benthic stable oxygen isotope record from ODP Site 1085 located at the southwestern African continental margin that provides a detailed chronology for the middle to late Miocene (13.9-7.3 Ma) climate transition in the eastern South Atlantic. A composite Fe intensity record obtained by XRF core scanning ODP Sites 1085 and 1087 was used to construct an astronomically calibrated chronology based on orbital tuning. The oxygen isotope data exhibit four distinct delta18O excursions, which have astronomical ages of 13.8, 13.2, 11.7, and 10.4 Ma and correspond to the Mi3, Mi4, Mi5, and Mi6 events. A global climate record was extracted from the oxygen isotopic composition. Both long- and short-term variabilities in the climate record are discussed in terms of sea-level and deep-water temperature changes. The oxygen isotope data support a causal link between sequence boundaries traced from the shelf and glacioeustatic changes due to ice-sheet growth. Spectral analysis of the benthic delta18O record shows strong power in the 400-kyr and 100-kyr bands documenting a paleoceanographic response to eccentricity-modulated variations in precession. A spectral peak around 180-kyr might be related to the asymmetry of the obliquity cycle indicating that the response of the dominantly unipolar Antarctic ice-sheet to obliquityinduced variations probably controlled the middle to late Miocene climate system. Maxima in the delta18O record, interpreted as glacial periods, correspond to minima in 100-kyr eccentricity cycle and minima in the 174-kyr obliquity modulation. Strong middle to late Miocene glacial events are associated with 400-kyr eccentricity minima and obliquity modulation minima. Thus, fluctuations in the amplitude of obliquity and eccentricity seem to be the driving force for the middle to late Miocene climate variability.