Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Integration of Standardized Management Systems: A Dilemma?

Abstract: The growing proliferation of management systems standards (MSSs), and their individualized implementation, is a real problem faced by organizations. On the other hand, MSSs are aimed at improving efficiency and effectiveness of organizational responses in order to satisfy the requirements, needs and expectations of the stakeholders. Each organization has its own identity and this is an issue that cannot be neglected; hence, two possible approaches can be attended. First, continue with the implementation of individualized management systems (MSs); or, integrate the several MSSs versus related MSs into an integrated management system (IMS). Therefore, in this context, organizations are faced with a dilemma, as a result of the increasing proliferation and diversity of MSSs. This paper takes into account the knowledge gained through a case study conducted in the context of a Portuguese company and unveils some of the advantages and disadvantages of integration. A methodology is also proposed and presented to support organizations in developing and structuring the integration process of their individualized MSs, and consequently minimize problems that are generators of inefficiencies, value destruction and loss of competitiveness. The obtained results provide relevant information that can support Top Management decision in solving that dilemma and consequently promote a successful integration, including a better control of business risks associated to MSSs requirements and enhancing sustainable performance, considering the context in which organizations operate.

Multi-phase post-mortem CT angiography: development of a standardized protocol.

The objective of this work was to develop an easily applicable technique and a standardized protocol for high-quality post-mortem angiography. This protocol should (1) increase the radiological interpretation by decreasing artifacts due to the perfusion and by reaching a complete filling of the vascular system and (2) ease and standardize the execution of the examination. To this aim, 45 human corpses were investigated by post-mortem computed tomography (CT) angiography using different perfusion protocols, a modified heart-lung machine and a new contrast agent mixture, specifically developed for post-mortem investigations. The quality of the CT angiographies was evaluated radiologically by observing the filling of the vascular system and assessing the interpretability of the resulting images and by comparing radiological diagnoses to conventional autopsy conclusions. Post-mortem angiography yielded satisfactory results provided that the volumes of the injected contrast agent mixture were high enough to completely fill the vascular system. In order to avoid artifacts due to the post-mortem perfusion, a minimum of three angiographic phases and one native scan had to be performed. These findings were taken into account to develop a protocol for quality post-mortem CT angiography that minimizes the risk of radiological misinterpretation. The proposed protocol is easy applicable in a standardized way and yields high-quality radiologically interpretable visualization of the vascular system in post-mortem investigations.

The impact of the Canadian Standardized Test of Fitness and of health counselling on health attitudes and behaviour

The purpose of this research study was to determine whether or not the use of a single day of Personal Wellness Evaluations would be meaningful enough to change the attitudes of participants toward adopting a healthier lifestyle, or if it was necessary to include regular planned health counselling alon-g with the Personal Wellness Evaluations in order to'observe changes in beliefs, attitudes and behaviours toward active living and the adoption of a healthier lifestyle. Attitudes and behaviours toward physical fitness and healthy lifestyle choices were assessed through a questionnaire composed of the following instruments: Fishbein and Ajzen Attitude and Behaviour Questionnaire, Leisure Behaviour Questionnaire, Ten Centimeter Bipolar Health Continuum, Neugarten Life Satisfaction Assessment, Job Description Index, Selected questions from the Ontario Health Survey, and the Symptom Reporting Questionnaire. Physical fitness evaluation consisted of the Canadian Standardized Test of Fitness, measures of blood pressure, and total cholesterol. The participants were divided into three groups: Group 1- CSTF & health counselling, Group 2- CSTF only, and Group 3- a control group. All three groups received the questionnaire both at the beginning and at the end of the study. Group 1 and Group 2 also participated in fitness testing at these same times, with a three-month time interval between test times. Group 1 also received weekly one-hour health education sessions during the three months between fitness testing. While there were some differences found between the three groups in this study, the results of this study suggested that this three-month workplace wellness program had no impact on the participants' attitudes and behaviours toward health and physical activity. There were no significant differences in the physical fitness measures between Group 1 and Group 2 , nor in the participants' questionnaire responses. These results may be due to the participants' lack of compliance to this wellness program. Employees who 11 participate in a workplace weIlness program must be self-motivated to comply with the program in order to receive the full benefits the program has to offer. Some participants in this study did not have the internal motivation necessary to remain in the study for the three-month period. Future research may consider implementing a workplace wellness program for a longer duration as well as incorporating a specific physical fitness program for the participants to follow. An exercise program could improve the participants' physical fitness, while the health counselling would give the individuals the health education necessary to lead a healthy lifestyle.

Finite-Sample Diagnostics for Multivariate Regressions with Applications to Linear Asset Pricing Models

In this paper, we propose several finite-sample specification tests for multivariate linear regressions (MLR) with applications to asset pricing models. We focus on departures from the assumption of i.i.d. errors assumption, at univariate and multivariate levels, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian (including Student t) errors. The univariate tests studied extend existing exact procedures by allowing for unspecified parameters in the error distributions (e.g., the degrees of freedom in the case of the Student t distribution). The multivariate tests are based on properly standardized multivariate residuals to ensure invariance to MLR coefficients and error covariances. We consider tests for serial correlation, tests for multivariate GARCH and sign-type tests against general dependencies and asymmetries. The procedures proposed provide exact versions of those applied in Shanken (1990) which consist in combining univariate specification tests. Specifically, we combine tests across equations using the MC test procedure to avoid Bonferroni-type bounds. Since non-Gaussian based tests are not pivotal, we apply the “maximized MC” (MMC) test method [Dufour (2002)], where the MC p-value for the tested hypothesis (which depends on nuisance parameters) is maximized (with respect to these nuisance parameters) to control the test’s significance level. The tests proposed are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995. Our empirical results reveal the following. Whereas univariate exact tests indicate significant serial correlation, asymmetries and GARCH in some equations, such effects are much less prevalent once error cross-equation covariances are accounted for. In addition, significant departures from the i.i.d. hypothesis are less evident once we allow for non-Gaussian errors.

Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical multivariate skewness and kurtosis criteria are then compared to simulation-based estimate of their expected value under the hypothesized distribution. Special cases considered include testing multivariate normal, Student t; normal mixtures and stable error models. In the Gaussian case, finite-sample versions of the standard multivariate skewness and kurtosis tests are derived. To do this, we exploit simple, double and multi-stage Monte Carlo test methods. For non-Gaussian distribution families involving nuisance parameters, confidence sets are derived for the the nuisance parameters and the error distribution. The procedures considered are evaluated in a small simulation experi-ment. Finally, the tests are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995.

Standardized Latin and Medieval Economic Growth

Traditional explanations for Western Europe's demographic growth in the High Middle Ages are unable to explain the rise in per-capita income that accompanied observed population changes. Here, we examine the hypothesis that an innovation in information technology changed the optimal structure of contracts and raised the productivity of human capital. We present historical evidence for this thesis, offer a theoretical explanation based on transaction costs, and test the theory's predictions with data on urban demographic growth. We find that the information-technology hypothesis significantly increases the capacity of the neoclassical growth model to explain European economic expansion between 1000 and 1300.

Pharmaceutical consumption and residuals potentially relevant to nutrient cycling in Greater Accra, Ghana

Recycling nutrients form sanitary wastes back into agricultural ecosystems offers an option to alleviate soil depletion in regions where the use of mineral fertiliser is limited. Exemplary nutrient and water cycling approaches, including collection, treatment and use of human urine, are established at Valley View University (VVU) in Greater Accra, Ghana. Concerns have been recently raised in regard to fate and impact of pharmaceutical residues in soils and interlinked environment. To evaluate in how far emerging knowledge can be transposed onto VVU, urban and rural environments in Greater Accra, spatial disease occurrence and drug consumption patterns were studied. Malaria has been found to represent the most severe health burden in Ghana, but there is also a high prevalence of infectious diseases. Drugs consumed in great quantities and in respect to their residual loads potentially problematic in the environment belong to therapeutic groups of: antibiotics, analgesics, drugs for diabetes, antimalarials, cardiovascular drugs and anthelmintics. Drug consumption revealed to be highest in urban and lowest in rural areas. At VVU the range of consumed drugs is comparable to urban areas except for the negligible use of diabetes and cardiovascular medication as well as contraceptives.

Proposta de millora de la qualitat de les aigües residuals de Sant Martí Sescorts

Diagnòsi de les aigües residuals de sant martí Sescorts i proposta de millora de la qualitat d' aquestes aigues residuals

Gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals [versió html]

Sota el títol Gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals trobem un llibre que pretén ser una guia útil per a la comunitat que es mou a l’entorn de la gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals. El document es troba estructurat en 5 capítols, el primer dels quals és una presentació de la problemàtica associada a les aigües residuals, així com de les possibles actuacions a portar a terme per a solucionar aquesta qüestió. Ja entrant en la matèria trobem els capítols 2 i 3 on es descriu en detall el sistema de clavegueram i les diferents tecnologies de depuració disponibles. No més important que el disseny d’un sistema de sanejament, és la seva gestió, i per aquest motiu en el capítol 4 s’hi recullen les pautes bàsiques d’operació i manteniment. Finalment, el darrer dels capítols contempla el destí final de les aigües ja depurades: el medi receptor o bé la reutilització d’aquestes

Gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals [versió comprimida]

Sota el títol Gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals trobem un llibre que pretén ser una guia útil per a la comunitat que es mou a l’entorn de la gestió i tractament d’aigües residuals. El document es troba estructurat en 5 capítols, el primer dels quals és una presentació de la problemàtica associada a les aigües residuals, així com de les possibles actuacions a portar a terme per a solucionar aquesta qüestió. Ja entrant en la matèria trobem els capítols 2 i 3 on es descriu en detall el sistema de clavegueram i les diferents tecnologies de depuració disponibles. No més important que el disseny d’un sistema de sanejament, és la seva gestió, i per aquest motiu en el capítol 4 s’hi recullen les pautes bàsiques d’operació i manteniment. Finalment, el darrer dels capítols contempla el destí final de les aigües ja depurades: el medi receptor o bé la reutilització d’aquestes

Implementació d’un sistema de control avançat en una estació depuradora d’aigües residuals

Aquest projecte té com a objectiu la implementació d'un sistema de control avançat en una estació depuradora d'aigües residuals a la Vall del Ges, Torelló

El medi ambient a la nostra ciutat : les aigües residuals. 'El medio ambiente en nuestra ciudad : las aguas residuales'.

A través de diversos puntos se va explicando primero los conceptos de agua contaminada, no contaminada y agua usada y no usada, de dónde surgen las aguas residuales, características físicas de éstas, la red de aguas residuales, cómo pueden tratarse esas aguas, dónde va y cómo se aprovecha el agua depurada y el fango. Cada punto se complementa con datos reales de las Islas Baleares.

Internal structure and standardized scores of the Spanish adaptation of the EGRA (Early Grade Reading Assessment) for early reading assessment

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n