Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Ab Initio MD Simulations of the Bronsted Acidity of Glutathione in Aqueous Solutions: Predicting pK(a) Shifts of the Cysteine Residue

The tripeptide glutathione (GSH) is one of the most abundant peptides and the major repository for nonprotein sulfur in both animal and plant cells. It plays a critical role in intracellular oxidative stress management by the reversible formation of glutathione disulfide with the thiol-disulfide pair acting as a redox buffer. The state of charge of the ionizable groups of GSH can influence the redox couple, and hence the pK(a) value of the cysteine residue of GSH is critical to its functioning. Here we report ab initio Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations of glutathione solvated by 200 water molecules, all of which are considered in the simulation. We show that the free-energy landscape for the protonation-deprotonation reaction of the cysteine residue of GSH computed using metadynamics sampling provides shift in the dissociation constant values as compared with the isolated accurate estimates of the pK(a) and correctly predicts the cysteine amino acid.

Chemical Shifts to Metabolic Pathways: Identifying Metabolic Pathways Directly from a Single 2D NMR Spectrum

Identifying cellular processes in terms of metabolic pathways is one of the avowed goals of metabolomics studies. Currently, this is done after relevant metabolites are identified to allow their mapping onto specific pathways. This task is daunting due to the complex nature of cellular processes and the difficulty in establishing the identity of individual metabolites. We propose here a new method: ChemSMP (Chemical Shifts to Metabolic Pathways), which facilitates rapid analysis by identifying the active metabolic pathways directly from chemical shifts obtained from a single two-dimensional (2D) C-13-H-1] correlation NMR spectrum without the need for identification and assignment of individual metabolites. ChemSMP uses a novel indexing and scoring system comprised of a ``uniqueness score'' and a ``coverage score''. Our method is demonstrated on metabolic pathways data from the Small Molecule Pathway Database (SMPDB) and chemical shifts from the Human Metabolome Database (HMDB). Benchmarks show that ChemSMP has a positive prediction rate of >90% in the presence of deduttered data and can sustain the same at 60-70% even in the presence of noise, such as deletions of peaks and chemical shift deviations. The method tested on NMR data acquired for a mixture of 20 amino acids shows a success rate of 93% in correct recovery of pathways. When used on data obtained from the cell lysate of an unexplored oncogenic cell line, it revealed active metabolic pathways responsible for regulating energy homeostasis of cancer cells. Our unique tool is thus expected to significantly enhance analysis of NMIR-based metabolomics data by reducing existing impediments.

Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Exchange energy shifts under dense plasma conditions

The variation of the energy interval between the intercombination line ( 1s2p(P-3(1))-> 1s(2)) and the resonance line ( 1s2p(P-1(1))-> 1s(2)) of He-like aluminium with plasma density and temperature is investigated. Since such energy interval is equivalent to the exchange energy of the state 1s2p(P-3(1)), we consider the dependence of this energy shift on the plasma environment. It was found that the shifts of exchange energy increase ( decrease) with the increase of electron density ( electron temperature), and the shifts of exchange energy become more sensitive to the electron density as the electron temperature decreases, i. e. in the strongly coupled plasma regime. An approximately linear relation is found between the shifts of exchange energy and the electron density. The results show that dense plasma effects are very important for the simulation of the spectral fine structure. The relative shifts between the intercombination ( 1s2p(P-3(1))-> 1s(2)) and the resonance line ( 1s2p(P-1(1))-> 1s(2)) are discussed for diagnostic applications.

Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: integrating scales

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Ground-state energy shifts of H-like Ti under dense and hot plasma conditions

In this study, by adopting the ion sphere model, the self-consistent. field method is used with the Poisson-Boltzmann equation and the Dirac equation to calculate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti at a plasma electron density from 10(22) cm(-3) to 10(24) cm(-3) and the electron temperature from 100 eV to 3600 eV. The ground-state energy shifts of H-like Ti show different trends with the electron density and the electron temperature. It is shown that the energy shifts increase with the increase in the electron density and decrease with the increase in the electron temperature. The energy shifts are sensitive to the electron density, but only sensitive to the low electron temperature. In addition, an accurately fitting formula is obtained to fast estimate the ground-state energies of H-like Ti. Such fitted formula can also be used to estimate the critical electron density of pressure ionization for the ground state of H-like Ti.

Focal shifts in focused Hermite-cosh-Gaussian laser beams

A closed-form propagation equation of Hermite-cosh-Gaussian beams passing through an unapertured thin lens is derived. Focal shifts are analyzed by means of two different methods according to the facts that the axial intensity of some focused Hermite-cosh-Gaussian beams are null and that of some others are not null but the principal maximum intensity may be located on the axis or off the axis. Optimal focusing for the beams is studied, and the condition of optimal focusing ensuring the smallest beam width is also given. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.