A summary of the inventory survey of Nigeria inland waters and preliminary estimates of their fish yield potentials

A summary of the inventory survey of Nigeria inland waters is presented. The survey reveals that Kano State tops the list in reservoir development with an existing water surface area of about 42,773 ha, while Anambra State has the least with about 38 hectares. No reservoir was recorded for Lagos and Rivers States. However, in aspects of existing fish ponds, a total of about 471 ha was recorded for Plateau State and about 5 ha for Niger State. Preliminary estimates of Nigeria's fish yield potentials based on established production records of comparable water bodies in the tropics, at different levels of management, show that the available water mass in the country, estimated at about 12.5 million hectares, could yield a minimum of about 334,214 metric tonnes (m.t.) of fish per annum with little or no management and a maximum of about 511,703 metric tonnes per annum with adequate management. Comparison of the potential yields from inland sources with the projected fish production in Nigeria (1981-1985) based on supply and demand statistics shows that potential yield from inland sources even at a low level of management is relatively higher than the projected inland production and more than double the observed production. The variation between the potential and the observed fish yields in the country has been attributed to the absolute lack of management strategies for our various inland waters. The paper elaborates on possible management strategies for various categories of inland waters as a prelude towards increased fish production in the country

Microcystin accumulation in freshwater bivalves from Lake Taihu, China, and the potential risk to human consumption

The potential risk through ingestion of microcystins (MC) in contaminated mollusks has not been well studied. The present paper studied seasonal changes of MC content (determined by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) in various organs of three species of bivalves (Cristaria plicata, Hyriopsis cumingii, and Lamprotula leai) in Lake Taihu, China, where toxic cyanobacterial blooms occurred. Coinciding with peaks of seston MC (maximum, 5.7 mu g/L) and MC in cyanobacterial blooms (maximum, 0.534 mg/g), most organs showed sharp MC peaks during the summer, indicating both fast uptake and fast depuration by bivalves. Because hepatopancreas and intestine had considerably higher MC content than other organs, they are the most dangerous for human consumption. Both the present and previous studies show that the hepatopancreatic MC and total tissue MC often are correlated in various aquatic invertebrates. During the peak of the cyanobacterial blooms, C. plicata had higher hepatopancreatic MC content than the other bivalves, whereas H. cumingii had higher intestinal MC content than the other bivalves. Estimated daily intakes for humans from the consumption of whole tissues of the three bivalves were 0.48 to 0.94 mu g MC-LR equivalent/kg body weight (12- to 23.5-fold the tolerable daily intake value proposed by the World Health Organization), which indicates a high risk for humans consuming these bivalves.

Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.

The potential risk from 222radon posed to archaeologists and earth scientists: reconnaissance study of radon concentrations, excavations and archaeological shelters in the Great cave of Niah, Sarawak, Malaysia

Gillmore, G. Gilbertson, D. Grattan, J. Hunt, C. McLaren, S. Pyatt, B. Banda, R. Barker, G. Denman, A. Phillips, P. Reynolds, T. The potential risk from 222radon posed to archaeologists and earth scientists: reconnaissance study of radon concentrations, excavations and archaeological shelters in the Great cave of Niah, Sarawak, Malaysia. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety. 2005. 60 pp 213-227.

Surveillance during pregnancy: methods and response rates from a hospital based pilot study of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System in Ireland

Background: Many European countries including Ireland lack high quality, on-going, population based estimates of maternal behaviours and experiences during pregnancy. PRAMS is a CDC surveillance program which was established in the United States in 1987 to generate high quality, population based data to reduce infant mortality rates and improve maternal and infant health. PRAMS is the only on-going population based surveillance system of maternal behaviours and experiences that occur before, during and after pregnancy worldwide.Methods: The objective of this study was to adapt, test and evaluate a modified CDC PRAMS methodology in Ireland. The birth certificate file which is the standard approach to sampling for PRAMS in the United States was not available for the PRAMS Ireland study. Consequently, delivery record books for the period between 3 and 5 months before the study start date at a large urban obstetric hospital [8,900 births per year] were used to randomly sample 124 women. Name, address, maternal age, infant sex, gestational age at delivery, delivery method, APGAR score and birth weight were manually extracted from records. Stillbirths and early neonatal deaths were excluded using APGAR scores and hospital records. Women were sent a letter of invitation to participate including option to opt out, followed by a modified PRAMS survey, a reminder letter and a final survey.Results: The response rate for the pilot was 67%. Two per cent of women refused the survey, 7% opted out of the study and 24% did not respond. Survey items were at least 88% complete for all 82 respondents. Prevalence estimates of socially undesirable behaviours such as alcohol consumption during pregnancy were high [>50%] and comparable with international estimates.Conclusion: PRAMS is a feasible and valid method of collecting information on maternal experiences and behaviours during pregnancy in Ireland. PRAMS may offer a potential solution to data deficits in maternal health behaviour indicators in Ireland with further work. This study is important to researchers in Europe and elsewhere who may be interested in new ways of tailoring an established CDC methodology to their unique settings to resolve data deficits in maternal health.

Is hyperfiltration associated with the future risk of developing diabetic nephropathy? A meta-analysis.

Aims/hypothesis Glomerular hyperfiltration is a well established phenomenon occurring early in some patients with type 1 diabetes. However, there is no consistent answer regarding whether hyperfiltration predicts later development of nephropathy. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies that compared the risk of developing diabetic nephropathy in patients with and without glomerular hyperfiltration and also explored the impact of baseline GFR.

Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out. Cohort studies in type 1 diabetic participants were included if they contained data on the development of incipient or overt nephropathy with baseline measurement
of GFR and presence or absence of hyperfiltration.

Results We included ten cohort studies following 780 patients. After a study median follow-up of 11.2 years, 130 patients had developed nephropathy. Using a random effects model, the pooled odds of progression to a minimum
of microalbuminuria in patients with hyperfiltration was 2.71 (95% CI 1.20–6.11) times that of patients with normofiltration. There was moderate heterogeneity (heterogeneity test p=0.05, measure of degree of inconsistency=48%) and some evidence of funnel plot asymmetry, possibly due to publication bias. The pooled weighted mean difference in baseline GFR was 13.8 ml min-1 1.73 m-2 (95% CI 5.0–22.7) greater in the group progressing to nephropathy than in those not progressing (heterogeneity test p<0.01).

Conclusions/interpretation In published studies, individuals with glomerular hyperfiltration were at increased risk of progression to diabetic nephropathy using study level data. Further larger studies are required to explore this relationship and the role of potential confounding variables.

Murder and the Ruthless Risk-Taker

The main focus of this article is the ways in which the problem of reckless murder is dealt with in the common law world. In a case of reckless murder it may not be possible to prove that the accused set out to kill or do serious injury; but the killing is nevertheless thought to merit classification as murder rather than manslaughter. This may be because the case is thought to be analytically indistinguishable from murder, or because the level of culpability demonstrated by the conduct in question is thought to deserve that stigma on other grounds. This article seeks, by reference to various common law systems, to analyse the different techniques used to classify the reckless killer as a murderer, and to compare their advantages and disadvantages in the light of the different rationales used to justify such a classification. The article concludes by arguing that the question whether reckless killers should be classified as murderers—and if so how—can only be decided by reference to broader conceptions of the nature of criminal culpability.

Contribution of 30 Biomarkers to 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in 2 population cohorts: The MONICA, risk, genetics, archiving and monograph (MORGAM) biomarker project

Background— Cardiovascular risk estimation by novel biomarkers needs assessment in disease-free population cohorts, followed up for incident cardiovascular events, assaying the serum and plasma archived at baseline. We report results from 2 cohorts in such a continuing study.
Methods and Results— Thirty novel biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways were evaluated in 7915 men and women of the FINRISK97 population cohort with 538 incident cardiovascular events at 10 years (fatal or nonfatal coronary or stroke events), from which a biomarker score was developed and then validated in the 2551 men of the Belfast Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) cohort (260 events). No single biomarker consistently improved risk estimation in FINRISK97 men and FINRISK97 women and the Belfast PRIME Men cohort after allowing for confounding factors; however, the strongest associations (with hazard ratio per SD in FINRISK97 men) were found for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1.23), C-reactive protein (1.23), B-type natriuretic peptide (1.19), and sensitive troponin I (1.18). A biomarker score was developed from the FINRISK97 cohort with the use of regression coefficients and lasso methods, with selection of troponin I, C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Adding this score to a conventional risk factor model in the Belfast PRIME Men cohort validated it by improved c-statistics (P=0.004) and integrated discrimination (P<0.0001) and led to significant reclassification of individuals into risk categories (P=0.0008).
Conclusions— The addition of a biomarker score including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I to a conventional risk model improved 10-year risk estimation for cardiovascular events in 2 middle-aged European populations. Further validation is needed in other populations and age groups.