Using decision trees in economizer repair decision making

The economiser is a critical component for efficient operation of coal-fired power stations. It consists of a large system of water-filled tubes which extract heat from the exhaust gases. When it fails, usually due to erosion causing a leak, the entire power station must be shut down to effect repairs. Not only are such repairs highly expensive, but the overall repair costs are significantly affected by fluctuations in electricity market prices, due to revenue lost during the outage. As a result, decisions about when to repair an economiser can alter the repair costs by millions of dollars. Therefore, economiser repair decisions are critical and must be optimised. However, making optimal repair decisions is difficult because economiser leaks are a type of interactive failure. If left unfixed, a leak in a tube can cause additional leaks in adjacent tubes which will need more time to repair. In addition, when choosing repair times, one also needs to consider a number of other uncertain inputs such as future electricity market prices and demands. Although many different decision models and methodologies have been developed, an effective decision-making method specifically for economiser repairs has yet to be defined. In this paper, we describe a Decision Tree based method to meet this need. An industrial case study is presented to demonstrate the application of our method.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and least squares algorithm are utilized to tune the parameters of the membership functions. In order to evaluate the proposed algorithm, the data sets obtained from vibration signals and current signals of the induction motors are used. The results indicate that the CART–ANFIS model has potential for fault diagnosis of induction motors.

Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochastic differential equations are consistent and asymptotically efficient, but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed-form expression for the transitional probability density function of the process is not available. As a result, a large number of competing estimation procedures have been proposed. This article provides a critical evaluation of the various estimation techniques. Special attention is given to the ease of implementation and comparative performance of the procedures when estimating the parameters of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck equations respectively.

Aerial image analysis using spiking neural networks with application to power line corridor monitoring

Trees, shrubs and other vegetation are of continued importance to the environment and our daily life. They provide shade around our roads and houses, offer a habitat for birds and wildlife, and absorb air pollutants. However, vegetation touching power lines is a risk to public safety and the environment, and one of the main causes of power supply problems. Vegetation management, which includes tree trimming and vegetation control, is a significant cost component of the maintenance of electrical infrastructure. For example, Ergon Energy, the Australia’s largest geographic footprint energy distributor, currently spends over $80 million a year inspecting and managing vegetation that encroach on power line assets. Currently, most vegetation management programs for distribution systems are calendar-based ground patrol. However, calendar-based inspection by linesman is labour-intensive, time consuming and expensive. It also results in some zones being trimmed more frequently than needed and others not cut often enough. Moreover, it’s seldom practicable to measure all the plants around power line corridors by field methods. Remote sensing data captured from airborne sensors has great potential in assisting vegetation management in power line corridors. This thesis presented a comprehensive study on using spiking neural networks in a specific image analysis application: power line corridor monitoring. Theoretically, the thesis focuses on a biologically inspired spiking cortical model: pulse coupled neural network (PCNN). The original PCNN model was simplified in order to better analyze the pulse dynamics and control the performance. Some new and effective algorithms were developed based on the proposed spiking cortical model for object detection, image segmentation and invariant feature extraction. The developed algorithms were evaluated in a number of experiments using real image data collected from our flight trails. The experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness and advantages of spiking neural networks in image processing tasks. Operationally, the knowledge gained from this research project offers a good reference to our industry partner (i.e. Ergon Energy) and other energy utilities who wants to improve their vegetation management activities. The novel approaches described in this thesis showed the potential of using the cutting edge sensor technologies and intelligent computing techniques in improve power line corridor monitoring. The lessons learnt from this project are also expected to increase the confidence of energy companies to move from traditional vegetation management strategy to a more automated, accurate and cost-effective solution using aerial remote sensing techniques.

M-ary trees for combinatorial asset management decision problems

A novel m-ary tree based approach is presented to solve asset management decisions which are combinatorial in nature. The approach introduces a new dynamic constraint based control mechanism which is capable of excluding infeasible solutions from the solution space. The approach also provides a solution to the challenges with ordering of assets decisions.

A randomised controlled trial of a theory-based intervention to improve sun protective behaviour in adolescents ('you can still be HOT in the shade') : study protocol

Background: Most skin cancers are preventable by encouraging consistent use of sun protective behaviour. In Australia, adolescents have high levels of knowledge and awareness of the risks of skin cancer but exhibit significantly lower sun protection behaviours than adults. There is limited research aimed at understanding why people do or do not engage in sun protective behaviour, and an associated absence of theory-based interventions to improve sun safe behaviour. This paper presents the study protocol for a school-based intervention which aims to improve the sun safe behaviour of adolescents. Methods/design: Approximately 400 adolescents (aged 12-17 years) will be recruited through Queensland, Australia public and private schools and randomized to the intervention (n = 200) or 'wait-list' control group (n = 200). The intervention focuses on encouraging supportive sun protective attitudes and beliefs, fostering perceptions of normative support for sun protection behaviour, and increasing perceptions of control/self-efficacy over using sun protection. It will be delivered during three × one hour sessions over a three week period from a trained facilitator during class time. Data will be collected one week pre-intervention (Time 1), and at one week (Time 2) and four weeks (Time 3) post-intervention. Primary outcomes are intentions to sun protect and sun protection behaviour. Secondary outcomes include attitudes toward performing sun protective behaviours (i.e., attitudes), perceptions of normative support to sun protect (i.e., subjective norms, group norms, and image norms), and perceived control over performing sun protective behaviours (i.e., perceived behavioural control). Discussion: The study will provide valuable information about the effectiveness of the intervention in improving the sun protective behaviour of adolescents.

Whe' yu' from?

"Whe' yu' from?" The question was put to me as I wandered, camera in hand, in the old square of Spanish Town, Jamaica's former capital. The local man, lounging in the shade of one of the colonial Georgian buildings that enclose the square, was mildly curious about what he took to be a typical white tourish photgraphing the sights of the decayed historic town. At that time, my home was in Kingston where i lived with my wife and baby son. I was then working in the Jamaican Government Town Planning Department in a job that took me all over the island. Turning to my questioner, I replied, "Kingston". There was a brief pause, and then the man spoke again: "No Man! Whe' yu' really from?" I still have difficulties when asked this question. Where am I from? What does this question mean? Does it refer to where I was born, where I spent my previous life or where I live now? Does it have a broader meaning, an enquiry about my origins in terms of background and previous experience? The following chapters are my attempt to answer these questions for my own satisfaction and, I hope, for the amusement of others who may be interested in the life of an ordinary English boy whose dream to travel and see the world was realized in ways he could not possibly have imagined. Finding an appropriate title for this book was difficult. Thursday's Child, North and South and War and Peace all came to mind but, unfortunately for me, those titles had been appropriated by other writers. Thursdays's Child is quite a popular book title, presumably because people who were born on that day and, in the words of the nursery rhyme, had 'far to go', are especially likely to have travellers' tales to tell or life stories of the rags-to-riches variety. Born on a Thursday, I have travelled a lot and I suppose that I have gone far in life. Coming from a working class family, I 'got on' by 'getting a good education' and a 'good job'. I decided against adding to the list of Thursday's Children. North and South would have reflected my life in Britain, spent in both the North and South of England, and my later years, divided between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the globe, as well as in countries commonly referred to as the 'advanced' North and the 'underdeveloped' South. North and South has already been appropriated by Mrs Gaskell, something that did not deter one popular American writer from using the title for a book of his. My memories of World War Two and the years afterwards made War and Peace a possible candidate, but readers expectnig an epic tale of Tolstoyan proportions may have been disappointed. To my knowledge, no other book has the title "Whe' Yu' From?". I am grateful to the Jamaican man whose question lingered in my memory and provided the title of this memoir, written decades later. This book is a word picture. It is, in a sense, a self-portrait, and like all portraits, it captures something of the character, it attempts to tell the truth, but it is not the whole truth. This is because it is not my intention to write my entire life story; rather I wish to tell about some of the things in my experience of life that have seemed important or interesting to me. Unlike a painted portrait, the picture I have created is intended to suggest the passage of time. While, for most of us in Western society, time is linear and unidirectional, like the flight of an arrov or the trajectory of a bullet, memory rearranges things, calling up images of the past in no particular order, making connections that may link events in various patterns, circular, web-like, superimposed. The stream of consciousness is very unlike that of streams we encounter in the physical world. Connections are made in all directions; thoughts hop back and forth in time and space, from topic to topic. My book is a composition drawn from periods, events and thoughts as I remember them. Like life itself, it is made up of patches, some good, some bad, but in my experience, always fascinating. In recording my memories, I have been as accurate as possible. Little of what I have written is about spectacular sights and strange customs. Much of it focuses on my more modest explorations includng observations of everyday things that have attracted my attention. Reading through the chapters, I am struck by my childhood freedom to roam and engage in 'dangerous' activities like climbing trees and playing beside streams, things that many children today are no longer allowed to enjoy. Also noticeable is the survival of traditions and superstitions from the distant past. Obvious too, is my preoccupation with place names, both official ones that appear on maps and sign boards and those used by locals and children, names rarely seen in print. If there is any uniting theme to be found in what I have written, it must be my education in the fields, woods and streets of my English homeland, in the various other countries in which I have lived and travelled, as well as more formally from books and in classrooms. Much of my book is concerned with people and places. Many of the people I mention are among those who have been, and often have remained, important and close to me. Others I remember from only the briefest of encounters, but they remain in my memory because of some specific incident or circumstance that fixed a lasting image in my mind. Some of my closest friends and relatives, however, appear nowhere in these pages or they receive only the slightest mention. This is not because they played an unimportant roles in my life. It is because this book is not the whole story. Among those whe receive little or no mention are some who are especially close to me, with whom I have shared happy and sad times and who have shown me and my family much kindness, giving support when this was needed. Some I have known since childhood and have popped up at various times in my life, often in different parts of the world. Although years may pass without me seeing them, in an important sense they are always with me. These people know who they are. I hope that they know how much I love and appreciate them. When writing my memoir, I consulted a few of the people mentioned in this book, but in the main, I have relied on my own memory, asided by daiary and notebook entries and old correspondence. In the preparation of this manuscript, I benefited greatly from the expert advice and encouragement of Neil Marr of BeWrite Books. My wife Anne, inspiration for this book, also contributed in the valuable role of critic. She has my undying gratitude.

CO2 emissions from the combustion of native Australian trees

Carbon dioxide (CO2), as a primary product of combustion, is a known factor affecting climate change and global warming. In Australia, CO2 emissions from biomass burning are a significant contributor to total carbon in the atmosphere and therefore, it is important to quantify the CO2 emission factors from biomass burning in order to estimate their magnitude and impact on the Australian atmosphere. This paper presents the quantification of CO2 emission factors for five common tree species found in South East Queensland forests, as well as several grasses taken from savannah lands in the Northern Territory of Australia, under controlled ‘fast burning’ and ‘slow burning’ laboratory conditions. The results showed that CO2 emission factors varied according to the type of vegetation and burning conditions, with emission factors for fast burning being 2574 ± 254 g/kg for wood, 394 ± 40 g/kg for branches and leaves, and 2181 ± 120 g/kg for grass. Under slow burning conditions, the CO2 emission factors were 218 ± 20 g/kg for wood, 392± 80 g/kg for branches and leaves, and 2027 ± 809 g/kg for grass.