Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Teaching evidence-based management with a focus on producing local evidence

We present an approach to teaching evidence-based management (EBMgt) that trains future managers how to produce local evidence. Local evidence is causally interpretable data, collected on-site in companies to address a specific business problem. Our teaching method is a variant of problem-based learning, a method originally developed to teach evidence-based medicine. Following this method, students learn an evidence-based problem-solving cycle for addressing actual business cases. Executing this cycle, students use and produce scientific evidence through literature searches and the design of local, experimental tests of causal hypotheses. We argue the value of teaching EBMgt with a focus on producing local evidence, how it can be taught, and what can be taught. We conclude by outlining our contribution to the literature on teaching EBMgt and by discussing limitations of our approach.

Improving Information Problem Solving skills in Secondary Education through embedded instruction

This empirical study consists in an investigation of the effects, on the development of Information Problem Solving (IPS) skills, of a long-term embedded, structured and supported instruction in Secondary Education. Forty secondary students of 7th and 8th grades (13–15 years old) participated in the 2-year IPS instruction designed in this study. Twenty of them participated in the IPS instruction, and the remaining twenty were the control group. All the students were pre- and post-tested in their regular classrooms, and their IPS process and performance were logged by means of screen capture software, to warrant their ecological validity. The IPS constituent skills, the web search sub-skills and the answers given by each participant were analyzed. The main findings of our study suggested that experimental students showed a more expert pattern than the control students regarding the constituent skill ‘defining the problem’ and the following two web search sub-skills: ‘search terms’ typed in a search engine, and ‘selected results’ from a SERP. In addition, scores of task performance were statistically better in experimental students than in control group students. The paper contributes to the discussion of how well-designed and well-embedded scaffolds could be designed in instructional programs in order to guarantee the development and efficiency of the students’ IPS skills by using net information better and participating fully in the global knowledge society.

Model-based objects recognition in man-made environments

We describe a model-based objects recognition system which is part of an image interpretation system intended to assist autonomous vehicles navigation. The system is intended to operate in man-made environments. Behavior-based navigation of autonomous vehicles involves the recognition of navigable areas and the potential obstacles. The recognition system integrates color, shape and texture information together with the location of the vanishing point. The recognition process starts from some prior scene knowledge, that is, a generic model of the expected scene and the potential objects. The recognition system constitutes an approach where different low-level vision techniques extract a multitude of image descriptors which are then analyzed using a rule-based reasoning system to interpret the image content. This system has been implemented using CEES, the C++ embedded expert system shell developed in the Systems Engineering and Automatic Control Laboratory (University of Girona) as a specific rule-based problem solving tool. It has been especially conceived for supporting cooperative expert systems, and uses the object oriented programming paradigm

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

Scenario-based traffic forecasts for the routes between the PENTA ports in 2020

Maritime transport is the foundation for trade in the Baltic Sea area. It represents over 15% of the world’s cargo traffic and it is predicted to increase by over 100% in the future. There are currently over 2,000 ships sailing on the Baltic Sea and both the number and the size of ships have been growing in recent years. Due to the importance of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea Region, ports have to be ready to face future challenges and adapt to the changing operational environment. The companies within the transportation industry – in this context ports, shipowners and logistics companies – compete continuously and although the number of companies in the business is not particularly substantial because the products offered are very similar, other motives for managing the supply chain arise. The factors creating competitive advantage are often financial and related to cost efficiency, but geographical location, road infrastructure in the hinterland and vessel connections are among the most important factors. The PENTA project focuses on adding openness, transparency and sharing knowledge and information, so that the challenges of the future can be better addressed with regard to cooperation. This report presents three scenario-based traffic forecasts for routes between the PENTA ports in 2020. The chosen methodology is PESTE, in which the focus in on economic factors affecting future traffic flows. The report further analyses the findings and results of the first PENTA WP2 report “Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic between PENTA ports” and utilises the same material, which was obtained through interviews and mail surveys.

Matrix Mind : on managerial reframing in multidimensional problem solving

Det är inte ovanligt att man i organisationer ställs inför problem som inte kan hanteras inom befintlig organisationsstruktur. Skälen kan vara att frågorna har många – ibland konflikterande – dimensioner och perspektiv som samtidigt måste beaktas. I den här avhandlingen studeras vilka tankemönster och föreställningar som fanns när grupper av chefer försökte lösa komplexa problem, som inte hade en naturlig organisatorisk hemvist och hur de omsatte dessa tankemönster i handling. Vad kännetecknade det ledarskap som utövades under problemlösningsprocessen? Avhandlingens empiri hämtas från ledarutvecklingsprogram i två internationellt verksamma företag i Sverige, och omfattar 14 verkliga affärsproblem i dessa företag och den process varigenom de löstes. De 14 seminarierna utgör exempel på hur mångdimensionella frågeställningar framgångsrikt hanteras utanför den befintliga organisationsstrukturen. Studien ger, genom att adressera frågor kring tankesätt och ledningsprocesser, en djupare förståelse för förutsättningarna för detta, och lyfter särskilt fram betydelsen av ett ledarskap som inbegriper begreppen intervention, förmåga och omtolkning. Som ett samlat begrepp introduceras bilden att utöva ledarskapet utifrån ett matrix mind. Att påverka strukturer (i vid mening) och därigenom de förmågor som utvecklas, är del i detta ledarskap. Det sker genom interventioner (ingrepp som påverkar relationer i t ex en grupp) och baserades i den aktuella empirin på uppfattningar om värdet av problematisering, erfarenhetsutbyte och av ett språk, som både beskriver och anger inriktning för aktiviteter. Interventioner i strukturer (och till dem knutna processer) beskriver dock bara delvis detta ledarskap. Att leda med ett matrix mind innefattar också ett nyfiket och kreativt förhållningssätt, och att utifrån detta leda omtolkning av problem. I empirin finns flera exempel på detta. Avhandlingen avser att ge ett bidrag inom såväl organisations- som ledarskapsteori.

Power Consumption Measurement and Scenario Based Energy Model in Wearable Computing Applications

The power is still today an issue in wearable computing applications. The aim of the present paper is to raise awareness of the power consumption of wearable computing devices in specific scenarios to be able in the future to design energy efficient wireless sensors for context recognition in wearable computing applications. The approach is based on a hardware study. The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the total power consumption of three representative wearable computing devices in realistic scenarios such as Display, Speaker, Camera and microphone, Transfer by Wi-Fi, Monitoring outdoor physical activity and Pedometer. A scenario based energy model is also developed. The Samsung Galaxy Nexus I9250 smartphone, the Vuzix M100 Smart Glasses and the SimValley Smartwatch AW-420.RX are the three devices representative of their form factors. The power consumption is measured using PowerTutor, an android energy profiler application with logging option and using unknown parameters so it is adjusted with the USB meter. The result shows that the screen size is the main parameter influencing the power consumption. The power consumption for an identical scenario varies depending on the wearable devices meaning that others components, parameters or processes might impact on the power consumption and further study is needed to explain these variations. This paper also shows that different inputs (touchscreen is more efficient than buttons controls) and outputs (speaker sensor is more efficient than display sensor) impact the energy consumption in different way. This paper gives recommendations to reduce the energy consumption in healthcare wearable computing application using the energy model.

The quality of the mother-child relationship during collaborative problem solving /

The quality of the mother-child relationship was examined in relation to joint planning, maternal teaching strategies, maternal emotional support, mutual positive affect and attachment security. Fifty-five grade five children and their mothers participated in a laboratory session comprised of various activities and completed questionnaires to evaluate attachment security. Joint planning and social problem solving were assessed observationally during an origami task. Problem solving effectiveness was unrelated to maternal teaching strategies, maternal encouragement and mutual positive affect. A marginally significant relationship was found between maternal encouragement and active child participation. Attachment security was found to be significantly related to sharing of responsibility during local planning, but only for child autonomous performance. An examination of conditional probabilities revealed that mutual positive affect did not increase the likelihood of subsequent mother-child dyadic regulation. However, mutual positive affect was found to be significantly related to both active child participation and dyadic regulation. The hypothesis predicting a mediational model was not supported. The implications of these findings in the theoretical and empirical literature were considered and suggestions for future research were made.

The effect of calculators on the numerical problem-solving skills and attitudes of primary students towards mathematics /

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect that calculators have on the attitudes and numerical problem-solving skills of primary students. The sample used for this research was one of convenience. The sample consisted of two grade 3 classes within the York Region District School Board. The students in the experimental group used calculators for this problem-solving unit. The students in the control group completed the same numerical problem-solving unit without the use of calculators. The pretest-posttest control group design was used for this study. All students involved in this study completed a computational pretest and an attitude pretest. At the end of the study, the students completed a computational posttest. Five students from the experimental group and five students from the control group received their posttests in the form of a taped interview. At the end of the unit, all students completed the attitude scale that they had received before the numerical problem-solving unit once again. Data for qualitative analysis included anecdotal observations, journal entries, and transcribed interviews. The constant comparative method was used to analyze the qualitative data. A t test was also performed on the data to determine whether there were changes in test and attitude scores between the control and experimental group. Overall, the findings of this study support the hypothesis that calculators improve the attitudes of primary students toward mathematics. Also, there is some evidence to suggest that calculators improve the computational skills of grade 3 students.

Anxiety and learning / response behaviour in the context of intellectual problem solving by young children

Twenty-eight grade four students were ca.tegorized as either high or low anxious subjects as per Gillis' Child Anxiety Scale (a self-report general measure). In determining impulsivity in their response tendencies, via Kagan's Ma.tching Familiar Figures Test, a significant difference between the two groups was not found to exist. Training procedures (verbal labelling plus rehearsal strategies) were introduced in modification of their learning behaviour on a visual sequential memory task. Significantly more reflective memory recall behaviour was noted by both groups as a result. Furthermore, transfer of the reflective quality of this learning strategy produced significantly less impulsive response behaviour for high and low anxious subjects with respect to response latency and for low anxious subjects with respect to response accuracy.