Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods, every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of ten percent instead of zero inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to one percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different preferences, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Double-walled PLLA/PLGA particles for the sustained release of Meloxicam: preparation, characterisation and contolled release studies

There were two main objectives in this thesis investigation, first, the production, characterisation, in vitro degradation and release studies of double walled microspheres for drug release control. The second one, and the most challenging, was the production of double walled nanospheres, also for drug control delivery. The spheres were produced using two polymers, the Poly(L-lactide)Acid, PLLA, and the Poly(L-lactide-co-glycolic)Acid, PLGA.Afterwards, a model drug, Meloxicam, which is an antiinflammatory drug, was encapsulated into the particles. Micro and nanospheres were produced by the solvent extraction/evaporation method, where perfect spherical particles were obtained. By varying the polymers PLLA/PLGA mass ratio, different core and shell composition, as well as several shell and core thickness were observed. In the particles with a PLLA/PLGA mass ratio 1:1, the shell is composed by PLLA and the core by PLGA. It was also verified that the Meloxicam has a tendency to be distributed in the PLGA layer. Micro and nanoparticles were characterised in morphology, size, polymer cristalinity properties and drug distribution. Particles degradation studies was performed, where the particles in a PVA solution of pH 7,4 where placed in an incubator, during approximately 40 days, at 120rpm, and 37ºC, simulating, as much as possible, the human body environment. From these studies, the conclusion was that particles containing a PLGA shell and a PLLA core degrade more rapidly, due to the fact that PLLA is more hydrophobic than the PLGA. Concerning the drug release controlled results, done also for 40 and 50 days, they showed that the microspheres containing a shell of PLLA release more slowly than when the shell is composed of PLGA. This result was predictable, since the drug is solubilised in the PLGA polymer and so, in that case, the PLLA shell works like a barrier between the drug and the outer medium. Another positive aspect presented by this study is the lower initial burst effect, obtained when using double walled particles, which is one of the advantages of the same. In a second part of this investigation, the production of the nanospheres was the main goal, since it was not yet accomplished by other authors or investigators. After several studies, referring to the speed, time and type of agitation, as well as, the concentration and volume of the first aqueous solution of poly-vinyl-alcohol (PVA) during the process of solvent extraction/evaporation it was possible to obtain double walled nanospheres.(...)

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Sustained competitive advantage of different sized multinational corporations in rural base of the pyramid markets

This thesis explores how multinational corporations of different sizes create barriers to imitation and therefore sustain competitive advantage in rural and informal Base of the Pyramid economies. These markets require close cooperation with local partners in a dynamic environment that lacks imposable property rights and follows a different rationale than developed markets. In order to explore how competitive advantage is sustained by different sized multinational corporations at the Base of the Pyramid, the natural-resource-based view and the dynamic capabilities perspective are integrated. Based on this integration the natural-resource-based view is extended by identifying critical dynamic capabilities that are assumed to be sources of competitive advantage at the Base of the Pyramid. Further, a contrasting case study explores how the identified dynamic capabilities are protected and their competitive advantage is sustained by isolating mechanisms that create barriers to imitation for a small to medium sized and a large multinational corporation. The case study results give grounds to assume that most resource-based isolating mechanisms create barriers to imitation that are fairly high for large and established multinational corporations that operate at the rural Base of the Pyramid and have a high product and business model complexity. On the contrary, barriers to imitation were found to be lower for young and small to medium sized multinational corporations with low product and business model complexity that according to some authors represent the majority of rural Base of the Pyramid companies. Particularly for small to medium sized multinational corporations the case study finds a relationship- and transaction-based unwillingness of local partners to act opportunistically rather than a resource-based inability to imitate. By offering an explanation of sustained competitive advantage for small to medium sized multinational corporations at the rural Base of the Pyramid this thesis closes an important research gap and recommends to include institutional and transaction-based research perspectives.

[Letter to the editor] Sustained effects of a neural-based intervention in a refractory case of Tourette syndrome

There are only a few treatments available for Tourette syndrome (TS). These treatments frequently do notwork in patients with moderate to severe TS [1]. Neuroimaging studies show a correlation between tics severity and increased activation over motor pathways, along with reduced activation over the control areas of the cortico-striato-thalamo-cortical circuits [2]. Moreover, the temporal pattern of tic generation suggests that cortical activation especially in the SMA precedes subcortical activation [3]. Following this assumption, here we explored the brain effects of 10-daily sessions of cathodal transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) delivered over the pre-SMA in a patient with refractory and severe TS and also assessed whether those changes were long lasting (up to 6 months).

End-systolic pressure-diameter relation of the left ventricle during transient and sustained elevations of blood pressure

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of transient and sustained variations in cardiac load on the values of the end-systolic pressure-diameter relation (ESPDR) of the left ventricle. METHODS: We studied 13 dogs under general anesthesia and autonomic blockade. Variations of cardiac loads were done by elevation of blood pressure by mechanical constriction of the aorta. Two protocols were used in each animal: gradual peaking and decreasing pressure variation, the "transient arterial hypertension protocol" (TAH), and a quick and 10 min sustained elevation, the "sustained arterial hypertension protocol"(SAH). Then, we compared the ESDR in these two situations. RESULTS: Acute elevation of arterial pressure, being it "transitory" or "sustained", did not alter the heart frequency and increased similarly the preload and after load. However, they acted differently in end systolic pressure-diameter relation. It was greater in the SAH than TAH protocol, 21.0±7.3mmHg/mm vs. 9.2±1.2mmHg/mm (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The left ventricular ESPDR values determined during sustained pressure elevations were higher than those found during transient pressure elevations. The time-dependent activation of myocardial contractility associated with the Frank-Starling mechanism is the major factor in inotropic stimulation during sustained elevations of blood pressure, determining an increase in the ESPDR values.

The impact of syncope during clinical presentation of sustained ventricular tachycardia on total and cardiac mortality in patients with chronic Chagasic heart disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of syncope during sustained ventricular tachycardia on total and cardiac mortality in patients with chronic chagasic heart disease. METHODS: We assessed 78 patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia and chronic Chagas' heart disease. The mean age was 53±10 years, 45 were males, and the mean ejection fraction was 49.6±13%. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence (GI=45) or absence (GII=33) of syncope during sustained ventricular tachycardia. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 49 months, total mortality was 35% (28 deaths), 22 deaths having a cardiac cause (78.6%). No difference was observed in total (33.3% x 39.4%) and cardiac (26.7% x 30.3%) mortality, or in nonfatal sustained ventricular tachycardia between GI and GII patients (57.6% x 54.4%, respectively). However, the presence of syncope during recurrences was significantly greater in those patients who had had the symptom from the beginning (65.4% x 18.1%, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Syncope during the presentation of sustained ventricular tachycardia is not associated with an increase in total or cardiac mortality in patients with chronic Chagas' heart disease. However, syncope during the recurrence ventricular tachycardia is greater in patients experiencing syncope in the first episode, of sustained ventricular tachycardia.

Influence of balloon pressure inflation in patients undergoing primary coronary stent implantation during acute myocardial infarction: a quantitative coronary angiography analysis

OBJECTIVE:To verify the influence of moderate- or high-pressure balloon inflation during primary coronary stent implantation for acute myocardial infarction. METHODS: After successful coronary stent implantation, 82 patients were divided into 2 groups according to the last balloon inflation pressure: group 1 (³12 to <16 atm) and group 2 (³16 to 20 atm), each with 41 cases. All patients underwent late coronary angiography. RESULTS: In group 1, the mean stent deployment pressure was 13.58±0.92 atm, and in the group 2 it was 18.15±1.66 atm. Stents implanted with moderate pressures (³12 to <16 atm) had a significantly smaller postprocedural minimal lumen diameter, compared to with those with higher pressure, with lesser acute gain (2.7± 0.4 mm vs 2.9±04 mm; p=0.004), but the late lumen loss (0,9±0,8 mm vs 0,9±0,6 mm) and the restenosis (22% vs. 17.1%) and target-vessel revascularization rates (9.8% vs 7.3%) were similar between the groups. CONCLUSION: During AMI stenting, the use of high pressures (³16 atm) did not cause a measurable improvement in late outcome, either in the late loss, its index, and the net gain, or in clinical and angiographic restenosis rates.

Measuring sustained superior performance at the firm level

This paper proposes a two-dimensional Strategic Performance Measure (SPM) to evaluate the achievement of sustained superior performance. This proposal builds primarily on the fact that, under the strategic management perspective, a firm's prevalent objective is the pursuit of sustained superior performance. Three basic conceptual dimensions stem from this objective: relativity, sign dependence, and dynamism. These are the foundations of the SPM, which carries out a separate evaluation of the attained superior performance and of its sustainability over time. In contrast to existing measures of performance, the SPM provides: (i) a dynamic approach by considering the progress or regress in performance over time, and (ii) a cardinal measurement of performance differences and its changes over time. The paper also proposes an axiomatic framework that a measure of strategic performance should comply with to be theoretically and managerially sound. Finally, an empirical illustration of the Spanish banking sector during 1987-1999 is herein provided by discussing some relevant cases.