Chebyshev real wave packet propagation: H+O-2 (J=0) state-to-state reactive scattering calculations

In this paper we explore the relative performance of two recently developed wave packet methodologies for reactive scattering, namely the real wave packet Chebyshev domain propagation of Gray and Balint-Kurti [J. Chem. Phys. 108, 950 (1998)] and the Lanczos subspace wave packet approach of Smith [J. Chem. Phys. 116, 2354 (2002); Chem. Phys. Lett. 336, 149 (2001)]. In the former method, a modified Schrodinger equation is employed to propagate the real part of the wave packet via the well-known Chebyshev iteration. While the time-dependent wave packet from the modified Schrodinger equation is different from that obtained using the standard Schrodinger equation, time-to-energy Fourier transformation yields wave functions which differ only trivially by normalization. In the Lanczos subspace approach the linear system of equations defining the action of the Green operator may be solved via either time-dependent or time-independent methods, both of which are extremely efficient due to the simple tridiagonal structure of the Hamiltonian in the Lanczos representation. The two different wave packet methods are applied to three dimensional reactive scattering of H+O-2 (total J=0). State-to-state reaction probabilities, product state distributions, as well as initial-state-resolved cumulative reaction probabilities are examined. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

An Australian PR state?

In their 1994 study Taxation and Representation, Deacon and Golding point to the extensive use of press and public relations professionals by governments to promote policy, and to outmanouvre their opponents. With the UK specifically in mind, they warn: 'we cannot ignore the massive expansion of the public relations state.' (p.6). What distinguishes their approach from the more usual preoccupation with the use of 'spin' to 'package' political leaders is a focus on the institutionalisation of public relations within government. In this paper, I explore the utililty of the concept, and consider what the broad features of an Australian 'PR State' might be.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Temperature Time Series

Atmospheric temperatures characterize Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, revealing long-memory and complex behavior. Temperature time series of 54 worldwide geographic locations are considered as representative of the Earth weather dynamics. These data are then interpreted as the time evolution of a set of state space variables describing a complex system. The data are analyzed by means of multidimensional scaling (MDS), and the fractional state space portrait (fSSP). A centennial perspective covering the period from 1910 to 2012 allows MDS to identify similarities among different Earth’s locations. The multivariate mutual information is proposed to determine the “optimal” order of the time derivative for the fSSP representation. The fSSP emerges as a valuable alternative for visualizing system dynamics.

Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926

The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

Visual representation of food in the brain : effects of repeated exposure and gut hormone secretion

The thesis at hand is concerned with the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms of visual food perception as investigated by electrical neuroimaging. Due to the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated challenges for public health care, there is a need to better understand behavioral and brain processes underlying food perception and food-based decision-making. The first study (Study A) of this thesis was concerned with the role of repeated exposure to visual food cues. In our everyday lives we constantly and repeatedly encounter food and these exposures influence our food choices and preferences. In Study A, we therefore applied electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials to investigate the spatio-temporal brain dynamics linked to the repeated viewing of high- and low-energy food cues (published manuscript: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). In this study, we found that repetitions differentially affect behavioral and brain mechanisms when high-energy, as opposed to low-energy foods and non-food control objects, were viewed. The representation of high-energy food remained invariant between initial and repeated exposures indicating that the sight of high-energy dense food induces less behavioral and neural adaptation than the sight of low-energy food and non-food control objects. We discuss this finding in the context of the higher salience (due to greater motivation and higher reward or hedonic valuation) of energy- dense food that likely generates a more mnemonically stable representation. In turn, this more invariant representation of energy-dense food is supposed to (partially) explain why these foods are over-consumed despite of detrimental health consequences. In Study Β we investigated food responsiveness in patients who had undergone Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery to overcome excessive obesity. This type of gastric bypass surgery is not only known to alter food appreciation, but also the secretion patterns of adipokines and gut peptides. Study Β aimed at a comprehensive and interdisciplinary investigation of differences along the gut-brain axis in bypass-operated patients as opposed to weight-matched non-operated controls. On the one hand, the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the visual perception of high- vs. low-energy foods under differing states of motivation towards food intake (i.e. pre- and post-prandial) were assessed and compared between groups. On the other hand, peripheral gut hormone measures were taken in pre- and post-prandial nutrition state and compared between groups. In order to evaluate alterations in the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis related to gastric bypass surgery, correlations between both measures were compared between both participant groups. The results revealed that Roux-en- Y gastric bypass surgery alters the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the perception of high- and low-energy food cues, as well as the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis. The potential role of these response alterations is discussed in relation to previously observed changes in physiological factors and food intake behavior post-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. By doing so, we highlight potential behavioral, neural and endocrine (i.e. gut hormone) targets for the future development of intervention strategies for deviant eating behavior and obesity. Together, the studies showed that the visual representation of foods in the brain is plastic and that modulations in neural activity are already noted at early stages of visual processing. Different factors of influence such as a repeated exposure, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery, motivation (nutrition state), as well as the energy density of the visually perceived food were identified. En raison de la prévalence croissante de l'obésité et du défi que cela représente en matière de santé publique, une meilleure compréhension des processus comportementaux et cérébraux liés à la nourriture sont nécessaires. En particulier, cette thèse se concentre sur l'investigation des mécanismes cérébraux spatio-temporels liés à la perception visuelle de la nourriture. Nous sommes quotidiennement et répétitivement exposés à des images de nourriture. Ces expositions répétées influencent nos choix, ainsi que nos préférences alimentaires. La première étude (Study A) de cette thèse investigue donc l'impact de ces exposition répétée à des stimuli visuels de nourriture. En particulier, nous avons comparé la dynamique spatio-temporelle de l'activité cérébrale induite par une exposition répétée à des images de nourriture de haute densité et de basse densité énergétique. (Manuscrit publié: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). Dans cette étude, nous avons pu constater qu'une exposition répétée à des images représentant de la nourriture de haute densité énergétique, par opposition à de la nourriture de basse densité énergétique, affecte les mécanismes comportementaux et cérébraux de manière différente. En particulier, la représentation neurale des images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique est similaire lors de l'exposition initiale que lors de l'exposition répétée. Ceci indique que la perception d'images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique induit des adaptations comportementales et neurales de moindre ampleur par rapport à la perception d'images de nourriture de basse densité énergétique ou à la perception d'une « catégorie contrôle » d'objets qui ne sont pas de la nourriture. Notre discussion est orientée sur les notions prépondérantes de récompense et de motivation qui sont associées à la nourriture de haute densité énergétique. Nous suggérons que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique génère une représentation mémorielle plus stable et que ce mécanisme pourrait (partiellement) être sous-jacent au fait que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique soit préférentiellement consommée. Dans la deuxième étude (Study Β) menée au cours de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux mécanismes de perception de la nourriture chez des patients ayant subi un bypass gastrique Roux- en-Y, afin de réussir à perdre du poids et améliorer leur santé. Ce type de chirurgie est connu pour altérer la perception de la nourriture et le comportement alimentaire, mais également la sécrétion d'adipokines et de peptides gastriques. Dans une approche interdisciplinaire et globale, cette deuxième étude investigue donc les différences entre les patients opérés et des individus « contrôles » de poids similaire au niveau des interactions entre leur activité cérébrale et les mesures de leurs hormones gastriques. D'un côté, nous avons investigué la dynamique spatio-temporelle cérébrale de la perception visuelle de nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique dans deux états physiologiques différent (pre- et post-prandial). Et de l'autre, nous avons également investigué les mesures physiologiques des hormones gastriques. Ensuite, afin d'évaluer les altérations liées à l'intervention chirurgicale au niveau des interactions entre la réponse cérébrale et la sécrétion d'hormone, des corrélations entre ces deux mesures ont été comparées entre les deux groupes. Les résultats révèlent que l'intervention chirurgicale du bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y altère la dynamique spatio-temporelle de la perception visuelle de la nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique, ainsi que les interactions entre cette dernière et les mesures périphériques des hormones gastriques. Nous discutons le rôle potentiel de ces altérations en relation avec les modulations des facteurs physiologiques et les changements du comportement alimentaire préalablement déjà démontrés. De cette manière, nous identifions des cibles potentielles pour le développement de stratégies d'intervention future, au niveau comportemental, cérébral et endocrinien (hormones gastriques) en ce qui concerne les déviances du comportement alimentaire, dont l'obésité. Nos deux études réunies démontrent que la représentation visuelle de la nourriture dans le cerveau est plastique et que des modulations de l'activité neurale apparaissent déjà à un stade très précoce des mécanismes de perception visuelle. Différents facteurs d'influence comme une exposition repetee, le bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y, la motivation (état nutritionnel), ainsi que la densité énergétique de la nourriture qui est perçue ont pu être identifiés.

Information and education in schistosomiasis control: an analysis of the situation in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This paper presents the main ideas discussed in the round-table "Social and Educacional Aspects of Schistosomiasis Control", during the VII International Symposium of Schistosomiais. Considering the perspectives of schistosomiasis control in Brazil, it is described the example of the State of Minas Gerais , where the disease has been registered for more than seven decades. The importance of an extensive evaluation is now more important, considering the recent change in the Brazilian health system, since the Federal responsibility for the tropical diseases control programs have been replaced by the municipalities coordination. In this way, it is urgent to develop effective alternatives to assist the municipal staffs in the control task. In the specific case of health education, one observes a wide gap between the planned objectives and what is in fact carried out. Instant objectives and the utilization of traditional techniques prevail, which do not take into account the active participation of the population involved. Based on the authors' experience in the scientific and health education, the paper analyzes: (1) some data from a case study in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, which presents the social representation and perception of schistosomiasis by the population; (2) an analysis of 35 different informative and educative materials used in Brazil since the sixties, and (3) some recommendations resulted from the studies that were carried out.

Variability of soil fertility properties in areas planted to sugarcane in the State of Goias, Brazil

Soil sampling should provide an accurate representation of a given area so that recommendations for amendments of soil acidity, fertilization and soil conservation may be drafted to increase yield and improve the use of inputs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the variability of soil fertility properties of Oxisols in areas planted to sugarcane in the State of Goias, Brazil. Two areas of approximately 8,100 m² each were selected, representing two fields of the Goiasa sugarcane mill in Goiatuba. The sugarcane crop had a row spacing of 1.5 m and subsamples were taken from 49 points in the row and 49 between the row with a Dutch auger at depths of 0.0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m, for a total of 196 subsamples for each area. The samples were individually subjected to chemical analyses of soil fertility (pH in CaCl2, potential acidity, organic matter, P, K, Ca and Mg) and particle size analysis. The number of subsamples required to compose a sample within the acceptable ranges of error of 5, 10, 20 and 40 % of each property were computed from the coefficients of variation and the Student t-value for 95 % confidence. The soil properties under analysis exhibited different variabilities: high (P and K), medium (potential acidity, Ca and Mg) and low (pH, organic matter and clay content). Most of the properties analyzed showed an error of less than 20 % for a group of 20 subsamples, except for P and K, which were capable of showing an error greater than 40 % around the mean. The extreme variability in phosphorus, particularly at the depth of 0.2-0.4 m, attributed to banded application of high rates of P fertilizers at planting, places limitations on assessment of its availability due to the high number of subsamples required for a composite sample.

State Public Defender's Office Performance Report, FY 2013

This report pursuant to Department of Management procedures provides an overview of the State Public Defender’s fiscal year 2013 operations related to court-appointed counsel, claims processing, and other indigent defense matters. This information, in accordance with the Accountable Government Act, is meant to help improve decision making and increase accountability to stakeholders and the citizens of Iowa. Iowa’s indigent defense system remains strong. The more than 200 employees of the State Public Defender System have been efficiently providing high quality representation on more cases than ever before. In Fiscal Year 2013, public defender offices closed more than 91,000 cases, at an average cost per case of $282.02, and there was a final finding of ineffective assistance of counsel in less than .002% of these cases. Similarly, more than 1,000 contract attorneys continue to provide high quality representation throughout all 99 of Iowa’s counties. In Fiscal Year 2013, 60,929 claims were submitted to the indigent defense fund, at an average cost per claim of $507.86. This was an decrease of nearly 350 claims from Fiscal Year 2012, and the total amount spent from the indigent defense fund increased slightly.

Iowa Historic Property Study: Iowana Farms Milk Company, 1416 State Street, City of Bettendorf, Scott County, Iowa, 2012

The Iowana Farms Milk Company factory building was considered to retain sufficient integrity and possess sufficient significance to be considered eligible for the National Register of Historic Places under Criteria A and C for its historical and architectural significance in the Bettendorf community. The Iowana Farms Milk Company was an important early to mid-twentieth-century business in Bettendorf, and was among the few that was not owned or operated by the Bettendorf Company. It was a strong and thriving business for many years, and its products were well known in the Quad Cities region. The importance of this property becomes even more significant when one considers that most of the buildings once associated with the actual Bettendorf Company, which was undeniably the most important business and industry in town, are now gone. As a result, the Iowana Farms Milk Company factory building was a physical vestige of the once-thriving commercial industries that made Bettendorf into a city in the twentieth century. This property was further significant for its representation of the evolution of the dairy industry in the twentieth century from farm to factory production. It also reflected the changes to the industry based on scientific discoveries, mechanical innovations, and governmental regulations related to improved sanitation and the pure milk movement. The Iowana Farms Milk Company represented a model plant for the time, and the marketing strategies it employed followed the trends of the industry. The Iowana Farms Milk Company plant had to be removed to make room for a new I-74 bridge over the Mississippi River at Bettendorf. The construction of the new bridge also required removal of the historic Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge. The documentation reported herein and for that of the Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge fulfills the requirements of the Memorandum of Agreement regarding the removal of these historic properties.

Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain

[spa] En este trabajo examinamos si, en la asignación de transferencias, los gobernantes regionales discriminan a favor de los gobiernos locales controlados por el mismo partido político, y si las perspectivas electorales de los gobiernos locales mejoran si están políticamente alineados con el gobierno regional. Con una nueva base de datos que considera 3.000 municipios españoles durante el período 2000-07 y un diseño de discontinuidad en la regresión, documentamos un efecto robusto de importante magnitud: en elecciones ajustadas, los municipios alineados con el gobierno regional reciben, en media, un 83% más de transferencias per cápita y su gobernante obtiene un 10% más de votos en las elecciones locales. También demostramos que el efecto de la alineación política es mayor: (i) si las elecciones regionales y locales se celebran el mismo día, (ii) en regiones donde las elecciones regionales son menos competidas, y (iii) en regiones con más recursos presupuestarios.

Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain

[spa] En este trabajo examinamos si, en la asignación de transferencias, los gobernantes regionales discriminan a favor de los gobiernos locales controlados por el mismo partido político, y si las perspectivas electorales de los gobiernos locales mejoran si están políticamente alineados con el gobierno regional. Con una nueva base de datos que considera 3.000 municipios españoles durante el período 2000-07 y un diseño de discontinuidad en la regresión, documentamos un efecto robusto de importante magnitud: en elecciones ajustadas, los municipios alineados con el gobierno regional reciben, en media, un 83% más de transferencias per cápita y su gobernante obtiene un 10% más de votos en las elecciones locales. También demostramos que el efecto de la alineación política es mayor: (i) si las elecciones regionales y locales se celebran el mismo día, (ii) en regiones donde las elecciones regionales son menos competidas, y (iii) en regiones con más recursos presupuestarios.

Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

Background: Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results: Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions: Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

State of Logistics and Operations Management in Finnish and Swedish Companies – Survey Research Findings

In this research we are examining what is the status of logistics and operations management in Finnish and Swedish companies. Empirical data is based on the web based questionnaire, which was completed in the end of 2007 and early 2008. Our examination consists of roughly 30 answers from largest manufacturing (highest representation in our sample), trade and logistics/distribution companies. Generally it could be argued that these companies operate in complex environment, where number of products, raw materials/components and suppliers is high. However, usually companies rely on small amount of suppliers per raw material/component (highest frequency is 2), and this was especially the case among Swedish companies, and among those companies, which favoured overseas sourcing. Sample consisted of companies which mostly are operating in an international environment, and are quite often multinationals. Our survey findings reveal that companies in general have taken logistics and information technology as part of their strategy process; utilization of performance measures as well as system implementations have followed the strategy decisions. In the transportation mode side we identify that road transports dominate all transport flow classes (inbound, internal and outbound), followed by sea and air. Surprisingly small amount of companies use railways, but in general we could argue that Swedish companies prefer this mode over Finnish counterparts. With respect of operations outsourcing, we found that more traditional areas of logistics outsourcing are driving factors in company's performance measurement priority. In contrary to previous research, our results indicate that the scope of outsourcing is not that wide in logistics/operations management area, and companies are not planning to outsource more in the near future. Some support is found for more international operations and increased outsourcing activity. From the increased time pressure of companies, we find evidence that local as well as overseas customers expect deliveries within days or weeks, but suppliers usually supply within weeks or months. So, basically this leads into considerable inventory holding. Interestingly local and overseas sourcing strategy does not have that great influence on lead time performance of these particular sourcing areas - local strategy is anyway considerably better in responding on market changes due to shorter supply lead times. In the end of our research work we have completed correlation analysis concerning items asked with Likert scale. Our analysis shows that seeing logistics more like a process rather than function, applying time based management, favouring partnerships and measuring logistics within different performance dimensions results on preferred features and performance found in logistics literature.

Advocating recognition and redistribution in poverty alleviation programs in Ghana : an examination of state and NGO programs and policies

Abstract This thesis argues that poverty alleviation strategies and programs carried out by the government and Non Governmental Organizations in Ghana provide affirmative solutions to poverty. This is because, these intervention strategies have been influenced by conventional discourses on poverty that fail to adequately address non-economic issues of poverty such as powerlessness, marginalization and tmder-representation. The study is carried out in a two-pronged manner; first, it analyses state policies and strategies, particularly the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS), on poverty alleviation and compares these to NGO programs, implemented with funds and support from external donor organizations. Specifically, I focus on how NGOs and the governnlent of Ghana negotiate autonomy and financial dependency with their funding donor-partners and how these affect their policies and programs. Findings from this study reveal that while external influences dominate poverty alleviation policies and strategies, NGOs and the government of Ghana exercise varying degrees of agency in navigating these issues. In particular, NGOs have been able to adapt their programs to the changing needs of donor markets, and are also actively engaged in re-orienting poverty back to the political domain through advocacy campaigns. Overall, rural communities in Ghana depend on charitable NGOs for the provision of essential social services, while the Ghanaian government depends on international donor assistance for its development projects.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.