Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.

The nature of errors made by drivers [Austroads Publication no: AP-R378-11]

It is important that we understand the factors and conditions that shape driver behaviour – those conditions within the road transport system that contribute to driver error and the situations where driver non-compliance to road regulations is likely. This report presents the findings derived from a program of research investigating the nature of errors made by drivers, involving a literature review and an on-road study. The review indicates that, despite significant investigation, the role of different error types in road traffic crashes remains unclear, as does the role of the wider road transport system failures in driver error causation.

Prevalence of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran

PURPOSE To determine the prevalence of refractive errors in Shiraz schoolchildren by age and gender. METHODS For this cross-sectional study, random cluster sampling was carried out from students of the 2008-2009 academic year. After the initial interview, ophthalmic examinations including tests of visual acuity, non-cycloplegic and cycloplegic refraction and binocular vision were performed. Myopia was defined as a spherical equivalent < or =-0.50 dioptre (D), hyperopia as > or =+2.0 D, and astigmatism as a cylinder refraction > or =0.75 D. All values for school grade and gender were directly standardized based on the total student population in the 2008-2009 school year. RESULTS A total of 2130 students were sampled, of which 1872 participated in the study (response rate = 87.88%). The prevalence of uncorrected, best-corrected, presenting and spectacle corrected visual acuity of 6/12 or worse in the better eye was 6.46%, 0%, 1.49% and 0.9%, respectively. The prevalence rates of myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism were 4.35% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.89-5.82%), 5.04% (95% CI: 3.50-6.58%), and 11.27% (95% CI: 9.81-12.74%), respectively. Anisometropia was detected in 2.58% of schoolchildren. The prevalence of hyperopia significantly decreased with age (P = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS Compared with other reported rates, the prevalence of myopia in the schoolchildren of Shiraz is similar to that in most places excluding East Asian countries, and that of hyperopia is in the mid range.

Prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran

Purpose: To determine the prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, using random cluster sampling, 3065 Shiraz schoolchildren were selected in this study. The participants totaled 2683; 1872 elementary and middle school and 811 high school students. For the primary and middle schoolchildren, cycloplegic refraction and for the high school students, non-cycloplegic autorefraction was measured. Myopia, defined as spherical equivalent (SE) refraction -0.50 diopter (D) or worse, hyperopia as SE +2.00D and +0.50D or more for cycloplegic and noncycloplegic refractions respectively, and astigmatism as cylinder -0.75D or worse. Results: The prevalence of refractive errors in elementary and middle school students was: myopia 4.35 % (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.89 -5.81), hyperopia 5.04 % (95%CI, 3.49 -6.58) and astigmatism 11.79 % (95%CI, 10.21 -13.38). For high school students, these rates were 22.4 % (95%CI, 18.44 -26.36), 10.52 % (95%CI, 6.75 -14.29) and 20.99% (95%CI, 16.55 -25.44), respectively.The prevalence of myopia increased with age in primary and middle school students (OR=1.15, 95% CI, 0.98 to1.33, p=0.073). Conclusions: The result of this study indicated a relatively low prevalence of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz according to the protocol by "Refractive Error Study in Children" (RESC) in other investigations.

Post-quantum key exchange for the TLS protocol from the ring learning with errors problem

Lattice-based cryptographic primitives are believed to offer resilience against attacks by quantum computers. We demonstrate the practicality of post-quantum key exchange by constructing cipher suites for the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol that provide key exchange based on the ring learning with errors (R-LWE) problem, we accompany these cipher suites with a rigorous proof of security. Our approach ties lattice-based key exchange together with traditional authentication using RSA or elliptic curve digital signatures: the post-quantum key exchange provides forward secrecy against future quantum attackers, while authentication can be provided using RSA keys that are issued by today's commercial certificate authorities, smoothing the path to adoption. Our cryptographically secure implementation, aimed at the 128-bit security level, reveals that the performance price when switching from non-quantum-safe key exchange is not too high. With our R-LWE cipher suites integrated into the Open SSL library and using the Apache web server on a 2-core desktop computer, we could serve 506 RLWE-ECDSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 HTTPS connections per second for a 10 KiB payload. Compared to elliptic curve Diffie-Hellman, this means an 8 KiB increased handshake size and a reduction in throughput of only 21%. This demonstrates that provably secure post-quantum key-exchange can already be considered practical.

The impact of orbital errors on the estimation of satellite clock errors and PPP

Precise satellite orbit and clocks are essential for providing high accuracy real-time PPP (Precise Point Positioning) service. However, by treating the predicted orbits as fixed, the orbital errors may be partially assimilated by the estimated satellite clock and hence impact the positioning solutions. This paper presents the impact analysis of errors in radial and tangential orbital components on the estimation of satellite clocks and PPP through theoretical study and experimental evaluation. The relationship between the compensation of the orbital errors by the satellite clocks and the satellite-station geometry is discussed in details. Based on the satellite clocks estimated with regional station networks of different sizes (∼100, ∼300, ∼500 and ∼700 km in radius), results indicated that the orbital errors compensated by the satellite clock estimates reduce as the size of the network increases. An interesting regional PPP mode based on the broadcast ephemeris and the corresponding estimated satellite clocks is proposed and evaluated through the numerical study. The impact of orbital errors in the broadcast ephemeris has shown to be negligible for PPP users in a regional network of a radius of ∼300 km, with positioning RMS of about 1.4, 1.4 and 3.7 cm for east, north and up component in the post-mission kinematic mode, comparable with 1.3, 1.3 and 3.6 cm using the precise orbits and the corresponding estimated clocks. Compared with the DGPS and RTK positioning, only the estimated satellite clocks are needed to be disseminated to PPP users for this approach. It can significantly alleviate the communication burdens and therefore can be beneficial to the real time applications.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

Standard errors and covariance matrices for smoothed rank estimators

A 'pseudo-Bayesian' interpretation of standard errors yields a natural induced smoothing of statistical estimating functions. When applied to rank estimation, the lack of smoothness which prevents standard error estimation is remedied. Efficiency and robustness are preserved, while the smoothed estimation has excellent computational properties. In particular, convergence of the iterative equation for standard error is fast, and standard error calculation becomes asymptotically a one-step procedure. This property also extends to covariance matrix calculation for rank estimates in multi-parameter problems. Examples, and some simple explanations, are given.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

On prequantization to reduce errors in double phase holograms

Prequantization has been forwarded as a means to improve the performance of double phase holograms (DPHs). We show here that any improvement (even under the best of conditions) is not large enough to help the DPH to compete favourably with other holograms.

Look-alike, sound-alike medication errors: A novel case concerning a Slow-Na, Slow-K prescribing error

A 59-year-old man was mistakenly prescribed Slow-Na instead of Slow-K due to incorrect selection from a drop-down list in the prescribing software. This error was identified by a pharmacist during a home medicine review (HMR) before the patient began taking the supplement. The reported error emphasizes the need for vigilance due to the emergence of novel look-alike, sound-alike (LASA) drug pairings. This case highlights the important role of pharmacists in medication safety.

Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Medication errors in residential aged care facilities: A distributed cognition analysis of the information exchange process

Background Medication safety is a pressing concern for residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies in RACF settings identify inadequate communication between RACFs, doctors, hospitals and community pharmacies as the major cause of medication errors. Existing literature offers limited insight about the gaps in the existing information exchange process that may lead to medication errors. The aim of this research was to explicate the cognitive distribution that underlies RACF medication ordering and delivery to identify gaps in medication-related information exchange which lead to medication errors in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs in Sydney, Australia. Data were generated through ethnographic field work over a period of five months (May–September 2011). Triangulated analysis of data primarily focused on examining the transformation and exchange of information between different media across the process. Results The findings of this study highlight the extensive scope and intense nature of information exchange in RACF medication ordering and delivery. Rather than attributing error to individual care providers, the explication of distributed cognition processes enabled the identification of gaps in three information exchange dimensions which potentially contribute to the occurrence of medication errors namely: (1) design of medication charts which complicates order processing and record keeping (2) lack of coordination mechanisms between participants which results in misalignment of local practices (3) reliance on restricted communication bandwidth channels mainly telephone and fax which complicates the information processing requirements. The study demonstrates how the identification of these gaps enhances understanding of medication errors in RACFs. Conclusions Application of the theoretical lens of distributed cognition can assist in enhancing our understanding of medication errors in RACFs through identification of gaps in information exchange. Understanding the dynamics of the cognitive process can inform the design of interventions to manage errors and improve residents’ safety.

A study of errors that can occur when weighing infants

When infants are weighed at well baby or infant welfare clinics, the weight change from one visit to the next is used as a guide to the welfare of the child. Infant welfare clinic nurses are expert clinicians who use weight measurements as a rough indicator of well-being only, as it is well known by them that these measurements are fraught with error. This paper calculates the amount of error which was found in repeated tests of weights of infants, and in the weight changes brought about by biological variation. As a result, it is recommended that babies under nine months of age be weighed at clinic visits no less than a fortnight apart, and older infants, at least one month apart. If they are weighed more often, then the weight changes detected will be less than the amount of error which affects the measurements.