898 resultados para Risk areas
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This thesis has identified the high risk areas of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland and quantified the effects of temperature on emergency department visits for childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea. It adds to the increasing evidence about the impacts of climate variability and change on children's health and may have significant implications for developing climate change adaptation strategies and paediatric care policies.
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Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.
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Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.
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Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.
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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4) and is currently considered as the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in the world. Nearly half of the human population lives in risk areas, and 50-100 million infections occur yearly according to World Health Organization. The disease can vary from a mild febrile disease to severe haemorrhagic fever and shock. A secondary infection with heterologous serotype increases the risk for severe disease outcome. During the last three decades the impact of dengue has dramatically increased in the endemic areas including the tropics and subtropics of the world. The current situation with massive epidemics of severe disease forms has been associated with socio-ecological changes that have increased the transmission and enabled the co-circulation of different serotypes. Consequently, an increase of dengue has also been observed in travelers visiting these areas. Currently approximately 30 cases are diagnosed yearly in Finnish travelers. In travelers dengue is rarely a life-threatening disease, however in the current study, a fatality was documented in a young Finnish patient who experienced a prolonged primary dengue infection. To improve particularly early laboratory diagnostics, a novel real-time RT-PCR method was developed for the detection of DENV-1-4 RNA based on TaqMan chemistry. The method was shown to be sensitive and specific for detecting DENV RNA and suitable for diagnostic use. The newly developed real-time RT-PCR was compared to other available early diagnostic methods including IgM and NS1 antigen detection using a panel of selected patient samples. The results suggest that the best diagnostic rates are achieved by a combination of IgM with RNA or NS1 detection. The dengue virus strains studied here included the first DENV strains isolated from serum samples of Finnish travelers collected in 2000-2005. The results of sequence analysis demonstrated that the 11 isolates included all four DENV serotypes and presented a global sample of DENV strains from different geographical areas including Asia, Africa and South America. In the present study sequence analysis was also carried out for a collection of 23 novel DENV-2 isolates from Venezuelan patients collected in 1999-2005. The Venezuelan DENV-2 exclusively represented the American-Asian genotype, suggesting that no foreign DENV-2 lineages have recently been introduced to the country. The results also suggest that the DENV-2 viruses detected earlier from Venezuela have been maintained in the area where they have evolved into several lineages. This is in contrast to the pattern observed in some other dengue endemic areas, where introductions of novel virus types and lineages are frequently detected.
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A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.
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Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.
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The states bordering the Gulf of Mexico i.e. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have been historically devastated by hurricanes and tropical storms. A large number of African Americans live in these southern Gulf States which have high percentages of minorities in terms of total population. According to the U.S. Census, the total black population in the United States is about 40.7 million and about one-fourth of them live in these five Gulf States (U.S. Census, 2008). As evidenced from Hurricane Katrina and other major hurricanes, lowincome and under-served communities are usually the hardest hit during these disasters. The aim of this study is to identify and visualize socio-economic vulnerability of the African American population at the county level living in the hurricane risk areas of these five Gulf States. (PDF contains 5 pages)
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O propósito desta Tese foi detectar e caracterizar áreas sob alto risco para leishmaniose visceral (LV) e descrever os padrões de ocorrência e difusão da doença, entre os anos de 1993 a 1996 e 2001 a 2006, em Teresina, Piauí, por meio de métodos estatísticos para análise de dados espaciais, sistemas de informações geográficas e imagens de sensoriamento remoto. Os resultados deste estudo são apresentados na forma de três manuscritos. O primeiro usou análise de dados espaciais para identificar as áreas com maior risco de LV na área urbana de Teresina entre 2001 e 2006. Os resultados utilizando razão de kernels demonstraram que as regiões periféricas da cidade foram mais fortemente afetadas ao longo do período analisado. A análise com indicadores locais de autocorrelação espacial mostrou que, no início do período de estudo, os agregados de alta incidência de LV localizavam-se principalmente na região sul e nordeste da cidade, mas nos anos seguintes os eles apareceram também na região norte da cidade, sugerindo que o padrão de ocorrência de LV não é estático e a doença pode se espalhar ocasionalmente para outras áreas do município. O segundo estudo teve como objetivo caracterizar e predizer territórios de alto risco para ocorrência da LV em Teresina, com base em indicadores socioeconômicos e dados ambientais, obtidos por sensoriamento remoto. Os resultados da classificação orientada a objeto apontam a expansão da área urbana para a periferia da cidade, onde antes havia maior cobertura de vegetação. O modelo desenvolvido foi capaz de discriminar 15 conjuntos de setores censitário (SC) com diferentes probabilidades de conterem SC com alto risco de ocorrência de LV. O subconjunto com maior probabilidade de conter SC com alto risco de LV (92%) englobou SC com percentual de chefes de família alfabetizados menor que a mediana (≤64,2%), com maior área coberta por vegetação densa, com percentual de até 3 moradores por domicílio acima do terceiro quartil (>31,6%). O modelo apresentou, respectivamente, na amostra de treinamento e validação, sensibilidade de 79% e 54%, especificidade de 74% e 71%, acurácia global de 75% e 67% e área sob a curva ROC de 83% e 66%. O terceiro manuscrito teve como objetivo avaliar a aplicabilidade da estratégia de classificação orientada a objeto na busca de possíveis indicadores de cobertura do solo relacionados com a ocorrência da LV em meio urbano. Os índices de acurácia foram altos em ambas as imagens (>90%). Na correlação da incidência da LV com os indicadores ambientais verificou-se correlações positivas com os indicadores Vegetação densa, Vegetação rasteira e Solo exposto e negativa com os indicadores Água, Urbana densa e Urbana verde, todos estatisticamente significantes. Os resultados desta tese revelam que a ocorrência da LV na periferia de Teresina está intensamente relacionada às condições socioeconômicas inadequadas e transformações ambientais decorrentes do processo de expansão urbana, favorecendo a ocorrência do vetor (Lutzomyia longipalpis) nestas regiões.
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Geology is the science that studies the Earth, its composition, structure and origin in addition to past and present phenomena that leave their mark on rocks. So why does society need geologists? Some of the main reasons are listed below: - Geologists compile and interpret information about the earth’s surface and subsoil, which allows us to establish the planet’s past history, any foreseeable changes and its relationship with the rest of the solar system. - Society needs natural resources (metals, non-metals, water and fossil fuels) to survive. The work of geologists is therefore a key part of finding new deposits and establishing a guide for exploring and managing resources in an environmentally-friendly way. - The creation of geological maps allows us to identify potential risk areas and survey different land uses; in other words, they make an essential contribution to land planning and proposing sustainable development strategies in a region. - Learning about Geology and the proper use of geological information contributes to saving lives and reducing financial loss caused by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, flooding and landslides, while also helping to develop construction projects, public works, etc. Through the proposed activities we aim to explain some of the basic elements of the different specialities within the field of Geological Sciences. In order to do this, four sessions have been organised that will allow for a quick insight into the fields of Palaeontology, Mineralogy, Petrology and Tectonics.
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Geology is the science that studies the Earth, its composition, structure and origin in addition to past and present phenomena that leave their mark on rocks. So why does society need geologists? Some of the main reasons are listed below: - Geologists compile and interpret information about the earth’s surface and subsoil, which allows us to establish the planet’s past history, any foreseeable changes and its relationship with the rest of the solar system. - Society needs natural resources (metals, non-metals, water and fossil fuels) to survive. The work of geologists is therefore a key part of finding new deposits and establishing a guide for exploring and managing resources in an environmentally-friendly way. - The creation of geological maps allows us to identify potential risk areas and survey different land uses; in other words, they make an essential contribution to land planning and proposing sustainable development strategies in a region. - Learning about Geology and the proper use of geological information contributes to saving lives and reducing financial loss caused by natural catastrophes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, flooding and landslides, while also helping to develop construction projects, public works, etc. Through the proposed activities we aim to explain some of the basic elements of the different specialities within the field of Geological Sciences. In order to do this, four sessions have been organised that will allow for a quick insight into the fields of Palaeontology, Mineralogy, Petrology and Tectonics.
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O comportamento dos radionuclídeos no solo pode variar de acordo com sua interação com os elementos que compões este solo. O fator de transferência (FT) é o parâmetro que descreve a interação que ocorre entre o solo e as plantas para um determinado radionuclídeo, observando que este solo tem propriedades químicas e físicas que favorecem seu crescimento. Através de ferramentas computacionais e baseado em solos extremos, com o FT conhecidos na literatura e nos parâmetros de solo que interferem no comportamento de 137Cs (como K trocável, capacidade de troca catiônica e pH), este trabalho visa aplicar técnicas de geoprocessamento para a criação de um mapa de vulnerabilidade de solos ao 137Cs e sua automação. Este estudo mostra que o uso de técnicas de geoprocessamento visando o mapeamento da vulnerabilidade ao 137Cs pode ser uma ferramenta importante para o planejamento de ações de emergência em áreas rurais, a identificação de áreas risco à contaminação radioativa, na escolha de ações corretivas adequadas, bem como no suporte a criação de políticas públicas.
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Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APPs) configuram áreas protegidas, cobertas ou não por vegetação nativa, legalmente estabelecidas em lei. Estas possuem funções ambientais que se integram entre si e se associam às suas diferentes categorias. O trabalho objetivou a adaptação do sistema de indicadores PEIR (pressão, estado, impacto, resposta) para avaliação ambiental integrada de APPs, com aplicação na sub-bacia do rio Saracuruna, RJ. Especificamente visou: a) Levantamento da legislação pertinente às APPs inseridas no contexto do uso e ocupação do solo e gestão ambiental integrada; b) Delimitação das faixas de APP, segundo os parâmetros definidos pelo Código Florestal para cada categoria existente na área; c) Seleção de indicadores ambientais relacionados às APPs delimitadas considerando suas diversas categorias e funções ambientais associadas; d) Avaliação do potencial e limitações da aplicação de indicadores de avaliação integrada em APPs, envolvendo a espacialização das informações com suporte de geotecnologias, com enfoque para a legitimação/intervenções nas faixas inseridas na sub-bacia em estudo. Metodologicamente envolveu a pesquisa bibliográfica, compreendendo o levantamento de todo o arcabouço jurídico ambiental pertinente às APPs e das referências de cartas de indicadores; a caracterização física e humana da sub-bacia, subsidiando a delimitação e pré-avaliação de APPs; a seleção de indicadores ambientais voltados à avaliação integrada de APPs, a aplicação, com o suporte de geotecnologias, de parte destes indicadores estruturados em ciclos PEIR frente à hierarquização, exemplificativa, das funções ambientais por grupo de categorias de APPs; e, por fim, a elaboração de mapas-síntese da situação das faixas de APP ligadas à drenagem e ao relevo de altitude, com enfoque na legitimação das mesmas. A revisão das políticas específicas e transversais às APPs e de seus planos incidentes atestou uma ampla base para a gestão local ou compartilhada destas faixas, no entanto, a delimitação de APPs em função da realidade local ainda não ocorre. A Carta-síntese de indicadores de avaliação integrada de APPs na sub-bacia contemplou um conjunto de quarenta indicadores, dentre os quais vinte e seis compuseram dois ciclos aplicados e seis ciclos parcialmente aplicados. Para as APPs ligadas à drenagem e ao relevo de altitude foram aplicados, respectivamente, os indicadores de: a) pressão: Alteração de áreas naturais por áreas antrópicas e Evolução da área urbana em encostas; b) estado: Impermeabilização do solo e Qualidade ambiental das terras; c) impacto: Áreas críticas de inundação e Áreas de risco de escorregamentos ou desmoronamentos; e d) resposta: Plano de bacia hidrográfica e Áreas de risco recuperadas. Tais ciclos atestaram a precisão dos indicadores de pressão e estado quando da avaliação sobre a preservação em APPs, porém não foram capazes de explicar isoladamente a causa de impactos, os quais não ocorrem de maneira exclusiva nestas faixas. Demonstraram ainda um nível maior de antropização em APPs localizadas na porção de baixada da sub-bacia, principalmente em margens de rios. Sendo assim, cabem ações voltadas à fiscalização de APPs legitimadas, à recuperação de faixas com baixa interferência humana, e às intervenções urbanísticas ou prioritárias em áreas degradadas ou impactadas
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This study aimed to develop a scientific and practical tool to be used to assess horse welfare after commercial transport over long journeys. A set of physical, behavioural and environmental measures was selected, covering welfare aspects of both transport and unloading procedures. The protocol was field-tested on 51 intra-EU commercial transports arriving at different sites in Italy. Univariate analysis was implemented to look for associations between the input variables (environmental hazards potentially affecting the animal well-being during long transports) and the outcome variables (direct evaluation of the animal condition). No severe welfare impairments were recorded (ie dead on arrival, severe injuries, non-ambulatory animals), while milder ones were more frequent at unloading (eg slipping; 36.7%, reluctance to move; 9.6%). Correlations emerged between ramp slope and falling; type of ramp floor and slipping; fast gait and the presence of gaps between the ramp and the floor. The horses' behaviour was also related to the type of handling procedure used. The measures were repeatable and practical to apply and score during real-time unloading. This work provides a sound basis for a new and practical welfare assessment tool for horses travelling over long journeys. Careful and constant application of this protocol would provide stakeholders with the opportunity to track and monitor changes in the industry over time, as well as to identify high risk areas in transport routines.
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Este estudo transversal está focado na propriedade de luminescência persistente do aluminato de estrôncio co-dopado com cério (III), disprósio (III) e európio (II), SrAl2O4:Ce3+, Dy3+, Eu2+, em sistemas de sinalização de áreas de risco e emergências para pessoas com deficiências. Na área da ciência e engenharia dos materiais, foram desenvolvidos novos materiais com características nanométricas, nanotubos, nanoarames e nanobastões luminescentes de SrAl2O4:Ce3+, Dy3+, Eu2+ para aplicações na área da reabilitação e acessibilidade de pessoas com deficiências. Os nanotubos foram obtidos a partir de micro- e nano-partículas precursoras sintetizadas por reacção do estado-sólido e tratamento térmico de recozedura (1273-1473 K). Os nanoarames e nanobastões foram preparados por moagem, sonificação e recozedura (373 K). Novas nanocápsulas de aluminatos luminescentes dopados com cério (III) e encapsulados com TiO2 foram criadas de modo a obter-se materiais multifuncionais, designadamente com acção fotocatalítica antimicrobiana, antibacteriana e resistência à água. Tais aluminatos podem ser amplamente aplicados como superfícies higiénicas, auto-limpantes, em biomateriais, no domínio de medicamentos antibióticos, na formulação de vacinas, e com ênfase à aplicação em cerâmicas fotoluminescentes. As metodologias de obtenção de tais nanoestruturas de aluminato de estrôncio dopado com cério (III) e do seu encapsulamento, desenvolvidas no âmbito desta tese, são aplicáveis a diversos aluminatos dopados com outros iões lantanídeos (Ln consiste em La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Yb, Tm ou Lu) com a fórmula M(1-x-y)N2O4:Cex, Lny, onde M é Be, Mg, Ca, Sr ou Ba. Na área da oftalmologia, foi desenvolvido um equipamento médico para o diagnóstico de biofuncionalidade das células retinais fotoreceptoras, e como suporte à telemedicina oftalmológica. Este equipamento foi utilizado para realizar testes de visão cromática FM100HUE em fundo branco/preto para a personalização de materiais luminescentes. Os resultados demonstraram uma biofuncionalidade celular à visibilidade fotópica das cores em fundo preto superior no grupo de tratamento, composto por pessoas com retinopatia diabética (n=38), em comparação ao grupo de referência (n=38). Estes resultados sugerem a recomendação de materiais com fotoluminescência persistente (λem=485-555 nm), incluindo SrAl2O4:Ce3+, Dy3+, Eu2+, para o referido grupo de tratamento, em sinalização de emergência e em ambientes de baixa iluminação. Na área da arquitectura, foi proposta uma nova aplicação dos referidos nanomateriais luminescentes à base de SrAl2O4:Ce3+, Dy3+, Eu2+ em cerâmica de revestimento, tendo em vista a sua boa visibilidade e uso por pessoas com deficiências. Novos pavimentos, cerâmicos, fotoluminescentes, foram desenhados com propriedades multisensoriais (contraste táctil, sonoro e visual) e antimicrobianas, para pessoas portadoras de deficiências utilizarem, no escuro, com a prioridade de salvar vidas em emergências. Tais pisos, com relevos, podem ser combinados de modo a compor um sistema exclusivo de sinalização fotoluminescente multisensorial que possibilita a rápida evacuação mediante o uso de auxílios de mobilidade (e.g. bengala, cadeira de rodas, andadores, muletas). A solução integrada de tais inovações que potencializa a propriedade de luminescência persistente de SrAl2O4:Ce3+, Dy3+, Eu2+ de modo acessível para as pessoas com deficiências, pode contribuir para salvar vidas, no escuro, em emergências.