From fall-risk assessment to fall detection: inertial sensors in the clinical routine and daily life

Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion ‘cognitive disturbances’ (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The ‘genetic risk and functional decline’ UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

A Specific Mapping Study Using Fluorescence Sentinel Lymph Node Detection in Patients with Intermediate- and High-risk Prostate Cancer Undergoing Extended Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection.

Sentinel lymph node (SLN) detection techniques have the potential to change the standard of surgical care for patients with prostate cancer. We performed a lymphatic mapping study and determined the value of fluorescence SLN detection with indocyanine green (ICG) for the detection of lymph node metastases in intermediate- and high-risk patients undergoing radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. A total of 42 patients received systematic or specific ICG injections into the prostate base, the midportion, the apex, the left lobe, or the right lobe. We found (1) that external and internal iliac regions encompass the majority of SLNs, (2) that common iliac regions contain up to 22% of all SLNs, (3) that a prostatic lobe can drain into the contralateral group of pelvic lymph nodes, and (4) that the fossa of Marcille also receives significant drainage. Among the 12 patients who received systematic ICG injections, 5 (42%) had a total of 29 lymph node metastases. Of these, 16 nodes were ICG positive, yielding 55% sensitivity. The complex drainage pattern of the prostate and the low sensitivity of ICG for the detection of lymph node metastases reported in our study highlight the difficulties related to the implementation of SNL techniques in prostate cancer. PATIENT SUMMARY There is controversy about how extensive lymph node dissection (LND) should be during prostatectomy. We investigated the lymphatic drainage of the prostate and whether sentinel node fluorescence techniques would be useful to detect node metastases. We found that the drainage pattern is complex and that the sentinel node technique is not able to replace extended pelvic LND.

Presentation and detection of invasive melanoma in a high-risk population

Background: Early detection of melanoma has been encouraged in Queensland for many years, yet little is known about the patterns of detection and the way in which they relate to tumor thickness. Objective: Our purpose was to describe current patterns of melanoma detection in Queensland. Methods: This was a population-based study, comprising 3772 Queensland residents diagnosed with a histologically confirmed melanoma between 2000 and 2003. Results: Almost half (44.0%) of the melanomas were detected by the patients themselves, with physicians detecting one fourth (25.3%) and partners one fifth (18.6%). Melanomas detected by doctors were more likely to be thin (\0.75 mm) than those detected by the patient or other layperson. Melanomas detected during a deliberate skin examination were thinner than those detected incidentally. Limitations: Although a participation rate of 78% was achieved, as in any survey, nonresponse bias cannot be completely excluded, and the ability of the results to be generalized to other geographical areas is unknown. Conclusion: There are clear differences in the depth distribution of melanoma in terms of method of detection and who detects the lesions that are consistent with, but do not automatically lead to, the conclusion that promoting active methods of detection may be beneficial. ( J Am Acad Dermatol 2006;54:783-92.)

Enhanced flat adenoma detection rate with high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan for average-risk colorectal cancer screening

Background and aim: The usefulness of high definition colonoscopy plus i-scan (HD+i-SCAN) for average-risk colorectal cancer screening has not been fully assessed. The detection rate of adenomas and other measurements such as the number of adenomas per colonoscopy and the flat adenoma detection rate have been recognized as markers of colonoscopy quality. The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic performance of an HD+i-SCAN with that of standard resolution white-light colonoscope. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected screening colonoscopy database. A comparative analysis of the diagnostic yield of an HD+i-SCAN or standard resolution colonoscopy for average-risk colorectal screening was conducted. Results: During the period of study, 155/163 (95.1%) patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 56.9 years. Sixty of 155 (39%) colonoscopies were performed using a HD+i-SCAN. Adenoma-detection-rates during the withdrawal of the standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 29.5% and 30% (p = n.s.). Adenoma/colonoscopy values for standard resolution versus HD+i-SCAN colonoscopies were 0.46 (SD = 0.9) and 0.72 (SD = 1.3) (p = n.s.). A greater number of flat adenomas were detected in the HD+i-SCAN group (6/60 vs. 2/95) (p < .05). Likewise, serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy were also higher in the HD+i-SCAN group. Conclusions: A HD+i-SCAN colonoscopy increases the flat adenoma detection rate and serrated adenomas/polyps per colonoscopy compared to a standard colonoscopy in average-risk screening population. HD+i-SCAN is a simple, available procedure that can be helpful, even for experienced providers. The performance of HD+i-SCAN and substantial prevalence of flat lesions in our average-risk screening cohort support its usefulness in improving the efficacy of screening colonoscopies.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Threshold values of sagittal abdominal diameter for the detection of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Northeastern Mexico: a cross-sectional study

Background: The use of sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been proposed for screening cardio-metabolic risk factors; however, its accuracy can be influenced by the choice of thresholds values. Aim: To determine the SAD threshold values for cardio-metabolic risk factors in Mexican adults; to assess whether parallel and serial SAD testing can improve waist circumference (WC) sensitivity and specificity; and to analyze the effect of considering SAD along with WC and body mass index (BMI) in detecting cardio-metabolic risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2012-2014 in Northeast Mexico (n = 269). Data on anthropometric, clinical, and biochemical measurements were collected. Sex-adjusted receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were obtained using hypertension, dysglycemia, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance as individual outcomes and metabolic syndrome as a composite outcome. Age-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Results: The threshold value for SAD with acceptable combination of sensitivity and specificity was 24.6 cm in men and 22.5 cm in women. Parallel SAD testing improved WC sensitivity and serial testing improved WC specificity. The co-occurrence of high WC/high SAD increased the risk for insulin resistance by 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.1-5.3), high BMI/high SAD by 4.3-fold (95% CI: 1.7-11.9) and SAD alone by 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2.-4.2). Conclusions: The use of SAD together with traditional obesity indices such as WC and BMI has advantages over using either of these indices alone. SAD may be a powerful screening tool for interventions for high-risk individuals.

Early objective detection of lymphoedema

The aetiology of secondary lymphoedema seems to be multifactorial, with acquired abnormalities as well as pre-existing conditions being contributory factors. Many characteristics bear inconsistent relationships to lymphoedema risk, and the few that are consistently associated with an increased risk of developing the condition, do not alone distinguish the at-risk population. Further, our current prevention and management recommendations are not backed by strong evidence. Consequently, there remains much to be learned about who gets it, how can it be prevented and how can we best treat it. Nonetheless, it is clear that lymphoedema is associated with adverse side effects, which have a profound impact on daily life, and that preliminary evidence suggests that early detection may lead to more effective treatment and lack of treatment may lead to progression. These represent important reasons as to why lymphoedema deserves clinical attention. However, several pragmatic issues must be considered when discussing whether a routine objective measure of lymphoedema could be integrated among the standard clinical care of those undertaking treatment for cancers known to be associated with the development of lymphoedema.

Biosecurity threats : the design of surveillance systems, based on power and risk

We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection.We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Human and bovine adenoviruses for the detection of source-specific fecal pollution in coastal waters in Australia

In this study, the host-specificity and -sensitivity of human- and bovine-specific adenoviruses (HS-AVs and BS-AVs) were evaluated by testing wastewater/fecal samples from various animal species in Southeast, Queensland, Australia. The overall specificity and sensitivity of the HS-AVs marker were 1.0 and 0.78, respectively. These figures for the BS-AVs were 1.0 and 0.73, respectively. Twenty environmental water samples were colleted during wet conditions and 20 samples were colleted during dry conditions from the Maroochy Coastal River and tested for the presence of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), host-specific viral markers, zoonotic bacterial and protozoan pathogens using PCR/qPCR. The concentrations of FIB in water samples collected after wet conditions were generally higher compared to dry conditions. HS-AVs was detected in 20% water samples colleted during wet conditions and whereas BS-AVs was detected in both wet (i.e., 10%) and dry (i.e., 10%) conditions. Both, C. jejuni mapA and Salmonella invA genes were detected in 10% and 10% of samples, respectively collected during dry conditions. The concentrations of Salmonella invA ranged between 3.5 × 102 to 4.3 × 102 genomic copies per 500 ml of water G. lamblia β-giardin gene was detected only in one sample (5%) collected during the dry conditions. Weak or significant correlations were observed between FIB with viral markers and zoonotic pathogens. However, during dry conditions, no significant correlations were observed between FIB concentrations with viral markers and zoonotic pathogens. The prevalence of HS-AVs in samples collected from the study river suggests that the quality of water is affected by human fecal pollution and as well as bovine fecal pollution. The results suggest that HS-AVs and BS-AVs detection using PCR could be a useful tool for the identification of human sourced fecal pollution in coastal waters.

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.

The Heavy Vehicle Study : a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.