Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 in. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea- level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

Connection between Caspian sea level variability and ENSO

The problem of the world greatest lake, the Caspian Sea, level changes attracts the increased attention due to its environmental consequences and unique natural characteristics. Despite the huge number of studies aimed to explain the reasons of the sea level variations the underlying mechanism has not yet been clarified. The important question is to what extent the CSL variability is linked to changes in the global climate system and to what extent it can be explained by internal natural variations in the Caspian regional hydrological system. In this study an evidence of a link between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and changes of the Caspian Sea level is presented. This link was also found to be dominating in numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model on the 20th century climate.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Late Quaternary sedimentation in the Paraiba Basin, Northeastern Brazil: Landform, sea level and tectonics in Eastern South America passive margin

Late Quaternary deposits in the northeastern Brazil have been scarcely investigated, despite their relevance to the discussion of the post-rift evolution of the South American passive margin within the context of landform, sea level and tectonic deformation. Sedimentological, stratigraphic and morphological characterization of these deposits, referred as Post-Barreiras Sediments, led to their distinction from underlying Early/Middle Miocene strata. Based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, two sedimentary units (PB1 and PB2) were recognized and related to the time intervals between 74.8 +/- 9.3 and 30.8 +/- 6.9 ka, and 8.8 +/- 0.9 and 1.8 +/- 0.2 ka, respectively. Unit PB1 consists of indurated sandstones and breccias either with massive bedding or complex types of soft sediment deformation structures generated by contemporaneous seismic activity. Unit PB2 is composed of massive sands or sands related to structures developed by dissipation of dunes. The present work, focusing on the Post-Barreiras Sediments, discusses landform, sea level and tectonics of the eastern South American passive margin during the latest Quaternary. Non-deposition and sub-aerial exposure related to the Tortonian worldwide low sea level combined with tectonic quiescence followed the Miocene transgression. Tectonic deformation in the latest Pleistocene created space to accommodate unit PB1 in downthrown faulted blocks and, perhaps, also synclines produced by strike-slip deformation. Although deposition of this unit was simultaneous with the progressive fall in sea level that followed the Last Interglacial Maximum, punctuated rises combined with land subsidence led to marine deposition close to the modern coastline. Renewed subsidence in the Holocene gave rise to accommodation of the Post-Barreiras Sediments. Most of unit PB2 was deposited during the Holocene Transgression, but it is not composed of marine sediments, which suggests either an insignificant rise in relative sea level or aeolian reworking of thin transgressive sands. The data presented here lead to a review of the evolution of the South American passive margin based on assumptions of uniform sedimentation and undeformed planation surfaces over a wide coastal area of the northeastern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea level trends in the Mediterranean from tide gauges and satellite altimetry

Sea level variation is one of the parameters directly related to climate change. Monitoring sea level rise is an important scientific issue since many populated areas of the world and megacities are located in low-lying regions. At present, sea level is measured by means of two techniques: the tide gauges and the satellite radar altimetry. Tide gauges measure sea-level relatively to a ground benchmark, hence, their measurements are directly affected by vertical ground motions. Satellite radar altimetry measures sea-level relative to a geocentric reference and are not affected by vertical land motions. In this study, the linear relative sea level trends of 35 tide gauge stations distributed across the Mediterranean Sea have been computed over the period 1993-2014. In order to extract the real sea-level variation, the vertical land motion has been estimated using the observations of available GPS stations and removed from the tide gauges records. These GPS-corrected trends have then been compared with satellite altimetry measurements over the same time interval (AVISO data set). A further comparison has been performed, over the period 1993-2013, using the CCI satellite altimetry data set which has been generated using an updated modeling. The absolute sea level trends obtained from satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauge data are mostly consistent, meaning that GPS data have provided reliable corrections for most of the sites. The trend values range between +2.5 and +4 mm/yr almost everywhere in the Mediterranean area, the largest trends were found in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean. These results are in agreement with estimates of the global mean sea level rise over the last two decades. Where GPS data were not available, information on the vertical land motion deduced from the differences between absolute and relative trends are in agreement with the results of other studies.

Radiocarbon dating, oxygen isotopes, and sea-level reconstruction of sediment core GeoB5844-2 from the northern end of the Red Sea

Based on a radiocarbon and paleomagnetically dated sediment record from the northern Red Sea and the exceptional sensitivity of the regional changes in the oxygen isotope composition of sea water to the sea-level-dependent water exchange with the Indian Ocean, we provide a new global sea-level reconstruction spanning the last glacial period. The sea-level record has been extracted from the temperature-corrected benthic stable oxygen isotopes using coral-based sea-level data as constraints for the sea-level/oxygen isotope relationship. Although, the general features of this millennial-scale sea-level records have strong similarities to the rather symmetric and gradual Southern Hemisphere climate patterns, we observe, in constrast to previous findings, pronounced sea level rises of up to 25 m to generally correspond with Northern Hemisphere warmings as recorded in Greenland ice-core interstadial intervals whereas sea-level lowstands mostly occur during cold phases. Corroborated by CLIMBER-2 model results, the close connection of millennial-scale sea-level changes to Northern Hemisphere temperature variations indicates a primary climatic control on the mass balance of the major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and does not require a considerable Antarctic contribution.

Sea-level control on the connection between shelf-edge deltas and the Bourcart canyon head (western Mediterranean) during the last glacial/interglacial cycle

A dense grid of high- and very high resolution seismic data, together with piston cores and borehole data providing time constraints, enables us to reconstruct the history of the Bourcart canyon head in the western Mediterranean Sea during the last glacial/interglacial cycle. The canyon fill is composed of confined channel–levee systems fed by a series of successively active shelf fluvial systems, originating from the west and north. Most of the preserved infill corresponds to the interval between Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the early deglacial (19 cal ka BP). Its deposition was strongly controlled by a relative sea level that impacted the direct fluvial/canyon connection. During a period of around 100 kyr between MIS 6 and MIS 2, the canyon “prograded” by about 3 km. More precisely, several parasequences can be identified within the canyon fill. They correspond to forced-regressed parasequences (linked to punctuated sea-level falls) topped by a progradational-aggradational parasequence (linked to a hypothetical 19-ka meltwater pulse (MWP)). The bounding surfaces between forced-regressed parasequences are condensed intervals formed during intervals of relative sediment starvation due to flooding episodes. The meandering pattern of the axial incision visible within the canyon head, which can be traced landward up to the Agly paleo-river, is interpreted as the result of hyperpycnal flows initiated in the river mouth in a context of increased rainfall and mountain glacier flushing during the early deglacial.

Determination of controls on Holocene barrier progradation through application of OSL dating: The Ilha Comprida Barrier example, Southeastern Brazil

Barrier development during the Holocene is studied using the example of the Ilha Comprida, Southeastern Brazil. Aerial photos, facies analysis, and optically stimulated luminescence dating are used to define the barrier emergence and evolution. Optically stimulated luminescence ages and facies successions indicate that the Ilha Comprida probably began as a Holocene transgressive barrier island 6000 years ago, just before the last relative sea-level maximum. Since then the barrier has progradated through the addition of curved beach ridges. Based on beach ridge alignments, six units of growth are identified with two growth directions, transverse and longitudinal. Rates of progradation with transverse growth vary from 0.13 to 4.6 m/year. Rates of longitudinal growth to NE range from 5.2 to 30 m/year. Variation in coastal progradation rates and sediment retention during the last 6000 years is compared with climate, physiography and relative sea-level changes. The physiography, represented by pre-Cenozoic hills, is the major control on sediment retention and alternation between longitudinal and transverse growth. Climate variations, such as the Little Ice Age event, apparently control the formation of ridges types: beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts. These results allow the use of the Ilha Comprida Barrier as an example to analyze the major controls on barriers progradation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratigraphic study and analysis of the barchan dunefield of the Laguna coastal zone in Santa Catarina, Brazil

The association of several favorable factors has resulted in the development of a wide barchan dune field that stands out as a fundamental element in the coastal landscape of southern Santa Catarina state in Brazil. This original ecosystem is being destroyed and highly modified, due to urbanization. This work identifies and discusses its basic characteristics and analyzes the favorable factors for its preservation, in the foreseen of both a sustainable future and potential incomes from ecotourism. The knowledge of the geologic evolution allows to associate this transgressive Holocene dunes formation to more dissipative beach conditions. Spatial differences on morphodynamics are related to local and regional contrasts in the sediment budget, with an influence on gradients of wave attenuation in the inner shelf and consequently with influence in the level of coastal erosion. The link between relative sea level changes and coastal eolian sedimentation can be used to integrate coastal eolian systems to the sequence stratigraphy model. The main accumulation phase of eolian sediments would occur during the final transgressive and highstand systems tracts. Considering the global character of Quaternary relative sea level changes, the Laguna transgressive dune field should be correlated with similar eolian deposits developed along other parts of the Brazilian coast compatibles with the model of dunefield initiation during rising and highstand sea level phases.

X-ray fluorescence scannings, diatoms, and dinocyst of ODP Site 189-1172

Eocene sediments drilled at the East Tasman Plateau (ETP) exhibit well-defined cycles, high-resolution magnetic stratigraphy, and environmentally-controlled dinoflagellate and diatom distribution patterns. We derive a cyclostratigraphy from the spectral analysis of high-resolution elemental concentration records (Ca, Fe) for this shallow marine time series spanning the middle to early late Eocene (C16n.2n - C21). Changes in carbonate content, the ratio between Gonyaulacoid and Peridinioid dinocysts, and relative abundance of "oligotrophic" diatoms serve as proxies for a high-resolution climatic and sea-level history with high values representing high sea-level stands and decreased eutrophy of surface waters. Changing ratios between high latitude dinocysts versus cosmopolitan species provide clues on sea surface temperature trends and water mass exchange. Our results show that the relatively shallow-water middle Eocene environments of the ETP are influenced by orbitally-forced climatic cycles superimposed on third order relative sea-level changes. Changes in the dominance of Milankovitch frequency at ~38.6 Ma (late Eocene) is related to an initial deepening-step within the Tasmanian Gateway prior to the major deepening during the middle late Eocene (~35.5 Ma). Decreasing sedimentation rates at 38 Ma and 37.2 Ma reflect winnowing associated with sea-level fall. This episode is followed by renewed transgression. Dinocyst distribution patterns indicate high latitude, probably cool temperate surface water conditions throughout, with the exception of a sudden surge in cosmopolitan species near the base of subchron C18.2r, at ~41 Ma; this event is tentatively correlated to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum.

Location and ages of terrestrial peatlands located on continental shelves and in coastal sediments

This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

(Table S1) Carbon and oxygen isotope values, and Mn and Sr concentrations of Early Jurassic sediments

For much of the Mesozoic record there has been an inconclusive debate on the possible global significance of isotopic proxies for environmental change and of sequence stratigraphic depositional sequences. We present a carbon and oxygen isotope and elemental record for part of the Early Jurassic based on marine benthic and nektobenthic molluscs and brachiopods from the shallow marine succession of the Cleveland Basin, UK. The invertebrate isotope record is supplemented with carbon isotope data from fossil wood, which samples atmospheric carbon. New data elucidate two major global carbon isotope events, a negative excursion of ~2 per mil at the Sinemurian-Pliensbachian boundary, and a positive excursion of ~2 per mil in the Late Pliensbachian. The Sinemurian-Pliensbachian boundary event is similar to the slightly younger Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event and is characterized by deposition of relatively deepwater organic-rich shale. The Late Pliensbachian strata by contrast are characterized by shallow marine deposition. Oxygen isotope data imply cooling locally for both events. However, because deeper water conditions characterize the Sinemurian-Pliensbachian boundary in the Cleveland Basin the temperature drop is likely of local significance; in contrast a cool Late Pliensbachian shallow seafloor agrees with previous inference of partial icehouse conditions. Both the large-scale, long-term and small-scale, short-duration isotopic cycles occurred in concert with relative sea level changes documented previously from sequence stratigraphy. Isotope events and the sea level cycles are concluded to reflect processes of global significance, supporting the idea of an Early Jurassic in which cyclic swings from icehouse to greenhouse and super greenhouse conditions occurred at timescales from 1 to 10 Ma.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.