Design and Qualitative/Quantitative Analysis of Multi-Agent Spatial Simulation Library

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2012

Towards Qualitative Approaches to Bayesian Evidential Reasoning

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

On Qualitative Probabilities for Legal Reasoning about Evidence

A crucial aspect of evidential reasoning in crime investigation involves comparing the support that evidence provides for alternative hypotheses. Recent work in forensic statistics has shown how Bayesian Networks (BNs) can be employed for this purpose. However, the specification of BNs requires conditional probability tables describing the uncertain processes under evaluation. When these processes are poorly understood, it is necessary to rely on subjective probabilities provided by experts. Accurate probabilities of this type are normally hard to acquire from experts. Recent work in qualitative reasoning has developed methods to perform probabilistic reasoning using coarser representations. However, the latter types of approaches are too imprecise to compare the likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This paper examines this shortcoming of the qualitative approaches when applied to the aforementioned problem, and identifies and integrates techniques to refine them.

Tests of the Dynamic Field Theory and the Spatial Precision Hypothesis: Capturing a Qualitative Developmental Transition in Spatial Working Memory

This study tested a dynamic field theory (DFT) of spatial working memory and an associated spatial precision hypothesis (SPH). Between 3 and 6 years of age, there is a qualitative shift in how children use reference axes to remember locations: 3-year-olds’ spatial recall responses are biased toward reference axes after short memory delays, whereas 6-year-olds’ responses are biased away from reference axes. According to the DFT and the SPH, quantitative improvements over development in the precision of excitatory and inhibitory working memory processes lead to this qualitative shift. Simulations of the DFT in Experiment 1 predict that improvements in precision should cause the spatial range of targets attracted toward a reference axis to narrow gradually over development, with repulsion emerging and gradually increasing until responses to most targets show biases away from the axis. Results from Experiment 2 with 3- to 5-year-olds support these predictions. Simulations of the DFT in Experiment 3 quantitatively fit the empirical results and offer insights into the neural processes underlying this developmental change.

A qualitative assessment of communicating spatial concepts in virtual and physical environments via a text-based medium

The pedagogical exercise described here was used to investigate how spatial communication about the manipulation of objects in a virtual and physical space is communicated between remote partners. It continues work done by others. Where it differs from previous research in this area is in its use of a qualitative methodology to study how these types of interactions are structured, communicated and interpreted via text-based media. What emerged from the qualitative analysis are new insights over the previous quantitative investigations. This paper reports on completed research.

Applying qualitative reasoning to finance

Qualitative reasoning has traditionally been applied in the domain of physical systems, where there are well established and understood laws governing the behaviour of each `component' in the system. Such application has shown that it is possible to produce models which can be used for explaining and predicting the behaviour of physical phenomena and also trouble-shooting. The principles underlying the theory ensure that the models are robust and exhibit consistent behaviour under all conditions. This research examines the validity of applying the theory in the financial domain where such laws may not exist or if they do, may not be universally applicable. In particular, it investigates how far these principles and techniques may be applied in the construction of financial analysis models. Because of the inherent differences in the nature of these two domains, it is argued that a different qualitative value system ought to be employed. The dissertation enlarges on the constraints this places on model descriptions and the effect it may have on the power and usefulness of the resulting models. It also describes the implementation of a system that investigates the implications of applying this theory by way of testing it on situations drawn from both text-books and published financial information.

Thinking in three dimensions: Exploring students' geometric thinking and spatial ability with the Geometer's Sketchpad

Current reform initiatives recommend that geometry instruction include the study of three-dimensional geometric objects and provide students with opportunities to use spatial skills in problem-solving tasks. Geometer's Sketchpad (GSP) is a dynamic and interactive computer program that enables the user to investigate and explore geometric concepts and manipulate geometric structures. Research using GSP as an instructional tool has focused primarily on teaching and learning two-dimensional geometry. This study explored the effect of a GSP based instructional environment on students' geometric thinking and three-dimensional spatial ability as they used GSP to learn three-dimensional geometry. For 10 weeks, 18 tenth-grade students from an urban school district used GSP to construct and analyze dynamic, two-dimensional representations of three-dimensional objects in a classroom environment that encouraged exploration, discussion, conjecture, and verification. The data were collected primarily from participant observations and clinical interviews and analyzed using qualitative methods of analysis. In addition, pretest and posttest measures of three-dimensional spatial ability and van Hiele level of geometric thinking were obtained. Spatial ability measures were analyzed using standard t-test analysis. ^ The data from this study indicate that GSP is a viable tool to teach students about three-dimensional geometric objects. A comparison of students' pretest and posttest van Hiele levels showed an improvement in geometric thinking, especially for students on lower levels of the van Hiele theory. Evidence at the p < .05 level indicated that students' spatial ability improved significantly. Specifically, the GSP dynamic, visual environment supported students' visualization and reasoning processes as students attempted to solve challenging tasks about three-dimensional geometric objects. The GSP instructional activities also provided students with an experiential base and an intuitive understanding about three-dimensional objects from which more formal work in geometry could be pursued. This study demonstrates that by designing appropriate GSP based instructional environments, it is possible to help students improve their spatial skills, develop more coherent and accurate intuitions about three-dimensional geometric objects, and progress through the levels of geometric thinking proposed by van Hiele. ^

Primary students’ spatial visualization and spatial orientation : an evidence base for instruction

This paper reports on the performance of 58 11 to 12-year-olds on a spatial visualization task and a spatial orientation task. The students completed these tasks and explained their thinking during individual interviews. The qualitative data were analysed to inform pedagogical content knowledge for spatial activities. The study revealed that “matching” or “matching and eliminating” were the typical strategies that students employed on these spatial tasks. However, errors in making associations between parts of the same or different shapes were noted. Students also experienced general difficulties with visual memory and language use to explain their thinking. The students’ specific difficulties in spatial visualization related to obscured items, the perspective used, and the placement and orientation of shapes.

Rural activity spaces and transport disadvantage : qualitative analysis of quantitative models integrating time and space

Current knowledge about the relationship between transport disadvantage and activity space size is limited to urban areas, and as a result, very little is known to date about this link in a rural context. In addition, although research has identified transport disadvantaged groups based on their size of activity spaces, these studies have, however, not empirically explained such differences and the result is often a poor identification of the problems facing disadvantaged groups. Research has shown that transport disadvantage varies over time. The static nature of analysis using the activity space concept in previous research studies has lacked the ability to identify transport disadvantage in time. Activity space is a dynamic concept; and therefore possesses a great potential in capturing temporal variations in behaviour and access opportunities. This research derives measures of the size and fullness of activity spaces for 157 individuals for weekdays, weekends, and for a week using weekly activity-travel diary data from three case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. Four focus groups were also conducted in order to triangulate the quantitative findings and to explain the differences between different socio-spatial groups. The findings of this research show that despite having a smaller sized activity space, individuals were not disadvantaged because they were able to access their required activities locally. Car-ownership was found to be an important life line in rural areas. Temporal disaggregation of the data reveals that this is true only on weekends due to a lack of public transport services. In addition, despite activity spaces being at a similar size, the fullness of activity spaces of low-income individuals was found to be significantly lower compared to their high-income counterparts. Focus group data shows that financial constraint, poor connections both between public transport services and between transport routes and opportunities forced individuals to participate in activities located along the main transport corridors.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students

AIMS This paper reports on the implementation of a research project that trials an educational strategy implemented over six months of an undergraduate third year nursing curriculum. This project aims to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting [1]. Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. For students learning to manage complex clinical situations, teaching approaches are required that make these instinctive cognitive processes explicit and clear [2-5]. In line with professional expectations, nursing students in third year at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) are expected to display clinical reasoning skills in practice. This can be a complex proposition for students in practice situations, particularly as the degree of uncertainty or decision complexity increases [6-7]. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students [4, 8]. This project aims to use the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students are assisted to uncover cognitive approaches that best assist them to make effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection on their practice. MEHODS In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students will undertake high fidelity simulation, some for the first time commencing in September of 2011. There will be two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= use think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= not given a specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks) in relation to problem solving patient needs. Students will be briefed about the scenario, given a nursing handover, placed into a simulation group and an observer group, and the facilitator/teacher will run the simulation from a control room, and not have contact (as a ‘teacher’) with students during the simulation. Then debriefing will occur as a whole group outside of the simulation room where the session can be reviewed on screen. The think aloud strategy will be described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allow for clarification of this strategy at this time. All other aspects of the simulations remain the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). RESULTS Methodology of the project and the challenges of implementation will be the focus of this presentation. This will include ethical considerations in designing the project, recruitment of students and implementation of a voluntary research project within a busy educational curriculum which in third year targets 669 students over two campuses. CONCLUSIONS In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs. References 1. Lasater, K., High-fidelity simulation and the development of clinical judgement: students' experiences. Journal of Nursing Education, 2007. 46(6): p. 269-276. 2. Lapkin, S., et al., Effectiveness of patient simulation manikins in teaching clinical reasoning skills to undergraduate nursing students: a systematic review. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 2010. 6(6): p. e207-22. 3. Kaddoura, M.P.C.M.S.N.R.N., New Graduate Nurses' Perceptions of the Effects of Clinical Simulation on Their Critical Thinking, Learning, and Confidence. The Journal of Continuing Education in Nursing, 2010. 41(11): p. 506. 4. Banning, M., The think aloud approach as an educational tool to develop and assess clinical reasoning in undergraduate students. Nurse Education Today, 2008. 28: p. 8-14. 5. Porter-O'Grady, T., Profound change:21st century nursing. Nursing Outlook, 2001. 49(4): p. 182-186. 6. Andersson, A.K., M. Omberg, and M. Svedlund, Triage in the emergency department-a qualitative study of the factors which nurses consider when making decisions. Nursing in Critical Care, 2006. 11(3): p. 136-145. 7. O'Neill, E.S., N.M. Dluhy, and C. Chin, Modelling novice clinical reasoning for a computerized decision support system. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 2005. 49(1): p. 68-77. 8. Lee, J.E. and N. Ryan-Wenger, The "Think Aloud" seminar for teaching clinical reasoning: a case study of a child with pharyngitis. J Pediatr Health Care, 1997. 11(3): p. 101-10.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students.

Theme Paper for Curriculum innovation and enhancement theme AIM: This paper reports on a research project that trialled an educational strategy implemented in an undergraduate nursing curriculum. The project aimed to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND: Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting (Lasater, 2007). Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students (Banning, 2008, Lee and Ryan-Wenger, 1997). This project used the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students were assisted to uncover cognitive approaches to assist in making effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection about their practice. MEHODS: In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students undertook high fidelity simulation (some for the first time), commencing in September of 2011. There were two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= used think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= no specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks used by all students) in relation to problem solving patient needs. The think aloud strategy was described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allowed time for clarification of this strategy. All other aspects of the simulations remained the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). Ethics approval has been obtained for this project. RESULTS: Results of a qualitative analysis (in progress- will be completed by March 2012) of student and facilitator reports on students’ ability to meet the learning objectives of solving patient problems using clinical reasoning and experience with the ‘think aloud’ method will be presented. A comparison of clinical reasoning learning outcomes between the two groups will determine the effect on clinical reasoning for students responding to patient problems. CONCLUSIONS: In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs.

Young children's statistical reasoning : a tale of two contexts

This thesis explored the knowledge and reasoning of young children in solving novel statistical problems, and the influence of problem context and design on their solutions. It found that young children's statistical competencies are underestimated, and that problem design and context facilitated children's application of a wide range of knowledge and reasoning skills, none of which had been taught. A qualitative design-based research method, informed by the Models and Modeling perspective (Lesh & Doerr, 2003) underpinned the study. Data modelling activities incorporating picture story books were used to contextualise the problems. Children applied real-world understanding to problem solving, including attribute identification, categorisation and classification skills. Intuitive and metarepresentational knowledge together with inductive and probabilistic reasoning was used to make sense of data, and beginning awareness of statistical variation and informal inference was visible.

GIS and qualitative data on young mothers’ use of urban neighbourhoods for physical activity

Public health research consistently demonstrates the salience of neighbourhood as a determinant of both health-related behaviours and outcomes across the human life course. This paper will report on the findings from a mixed-methods Brisbane-based study that explores how mothers with primary school children from both high and low socioeconomic suburbs use the local urban environment for the purpose of physical activity. Firstly, we demonstrate findings from an innovative methodology using the geographic information systems (GIS) embedded in social media platforms on mobile phones to track locations, resource-use, distances travelled, and modes of transport of the families in real-time; and secondly, we report on qualitative data that provides insight into reasons for differential use of the environment by both groups. Spatial/mapping and statistical data showed that while the mothers from both groups demonstrated similar daily routines, the mothers from the high SEP suburb engaged in increased levels of physical activity, travelled less frequently and less distance by car, and walked more for transport. The qualitative data revealed differences in the psychosocial processes and characteristics of the households and neighbourhoods of the respective groups, with mothers in the lower SEP suburb reporting more stress, higher conflict, and lower quality relationships with neighbours.

Deviant consumer behaviour : a qualitative exploration

Deviant behaviour is an ongoing problem in the consumer marketplace (Daunt and Harris, 2012). To investigate this issue, a number of authors have focused on empirically assessing consumer perceptions of right and wrong behaviours, such as the Muncy-Vitell (1992) consumer ethics scale. While studies like this have provided extensive empirical insights, qualitative insight into why consumers make these behaviour classifications remains underexplored. The aim of this paper is to extend on that literature by exploring the reasoning behind behavioural classifications. Using interviews, seven factors were identified in consumer definitions of acceptable, questionable, and unacceptable consumer behaviours including; official classification, prevalence, ease of justification, perceived fairness, consequences, risk, and values. These results also provide actionable insights for marketers in that multi-level deterrence strategies must be employed to more effectively deter consumer deviance, as opposed to traditional deterrence strategies based on cost-benefit analyses.