Foresight methodologies to understand changes in the labour process. Experience from Portugal

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world. It can be a useful tool for policy-makers to grasp problems clearly and comprehensively, and to better pinpoint challenges as well as opportunities in an overall framework. The features of the foresight methods are being used in some labour policy making experiences. Case studies developed in Portugal will be presented, and some conclusions will be drawn in order to organise a set of principles for foresight analysis applied to the European project WORKS on the work organisation re-structuring in the knowledge society, and on the work design methods for new management structures of virtual organisations.

Diversidade regional e dinâmicas demográficas: área metropolitana de Lisboa 2001-2025

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão de Informação

The Role of Propranolol in the Treatment of Infantile Hemangioma

INTRODUCTION: Infantile hemangioma (IH) is one of the most common childhood tumors. There are various medical or surgical therapeutic options, all with suboptimal results. Recently, the successful use of propranolol for involution of IH was described. We report the results of a single-center experience with this therapeutic option. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the efficacy and safety of propranolol in children with infantile hemangioma. METHODS: We performed a prospective analysis of clinical data of all patients with IH referred to a pediatric cardiology center for baseline cardiovascular assessment prior to propranolol therapy. Propranolol was given at a starting dose of 1 mg/kg/day and titrated to a target dose of 2-3 mg/kg/day according to clinical response. Efficacy was assessed through a photograph-based severity scoring scale. Safety was assessed by collecting data regarding significant side effects. RESULTS: Starting in 2010, 30 patients (15 female) were referred for propranolol treatment of IH, at a median age of six months (1-63 months). The mean target propranolol dose was 2.8 mg/kg/day, with a mean duration of therapy of 12 months. All patients experienced significant reduction of IH size and volume. There were no side effects. CONCLUSIONS: In our experience propranolol appears to be a useful and safe treatment option for severe or complicated IH, achieving a rapid and significant reduction in their size. No adverse effects were observed, although until larger clinical trials are completed, potential adverse events should be borne in mind and consultation with local specialists is recommended prior to initiating treatment.

Business model optimization of Prego Gourmet

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internationalization process of Gallo worldwide: Introduction of olive in a non-traditional market - China

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Monitoring of CD4(+)CD25(high)IL-7R alpha(high) activated T Cells in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Background and objectives In humans, circulating CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells contain mainly regulatory T cells (Treg; FoxP3(+)IL-7R alpha(low)), but a small subset is represented by activated effector T cells (Tact; FoxP3(-)IL-7R alpha(high)). The balance between Tact and Treg may be important after transplantation. The aim of this study was first to analyze and correlate CD4(+)CD25(high) Tact and Treg with the clinical status of kidney transplant recipients and second to study prospectively the effect of two immunosuppressive regimens on Tact/Treg during the first year after transplantation.Design, setting, participants, & measurements CD4(+)CD25(high) Tact and Treg were analyzed by flow cytometry, either retrospectively in 90 patients greater than 1 year after kidney transplantation (cross-sectional analysis) or prospectively in 35 patients receiving two immunosuppressive regimens after kidney transplantation (prospective analysis).Results A higher proportion of Tact and a lower proportion of Treg were found in the majority of kidney recipients. In chronic Immoral rejection, a strikingly higher proportion of Tact was present. A subgroup of stable recipients receiving calcineurin inhibitor-free immunosuppression (mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine, or sirolimus) had Tact values that were similar to healthy individuals. In the prospective analysis, the proportion of Tact significantly increased in both immunosuppression groups during the first year after transplantation.Conclusions These data highlight distinct patterns in the proportion of circulating Tact depending on the clinical status of kidney recipients. Moreover, the prospective analysis demonstrated an increase in the proportion of Tact, regardless of the immunosuppressive regimen. The measurement of Tact, in addition to Treg, may become a useful immune monitoring tool after kidney transplantation. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 2025-2033, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.09611010

Long-term effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral theraphy in a cohort of HIV-1 infected patients.

Eligibility criteria might explain differences in viral response to combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) between clinical trials and routine care setting. Prospective analysis including HIV-1 infected patients starting cART between January 2004 and December 2009, at Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron. Effectiveness evaluated as time to treatment failure (TF), defined as virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death or treatment discontinuation whatever the reason other than switching. Effectiveness month 12, 24 and 36 was 82.9%, 78.5% and 76%, respectively. 57 (24.6%) patients presented TF, mainly due to intolerance or toxicity. Higher risk in patients starting before 2006 and those with protease inhibitor based regimen.

Dairy Markets in Asia: An Overview of Recent Findings and Implications, September 2005

This paper is an overview of important findings regarding the ongoing evolution of Asian dairy markets based on a series of new economic investigations. These investigations provide systematic empirical foundations for assessing Asian dairy markets with their new consumption patterns, changing industries, and trade prospects under different domestic and trade policy regimes. The findings are drawn from four case studies (China, India, Japan, and Korea), as well as a prospective analysis of future regional patterns of consumption and a policy analysis of trade liberalization of Asian dairy markets. The overview distills the findings of these new investigations and integrates them in the earlier economic literature; it draws policy implications and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia, especially for emerging exporters in Latin America.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Is trauma in Switzerland any different? epidemiology and patterns of injury in major trauma - a 5-year review from a Swiss trauma centre.

Switzerland, the country with the highest health expenditure per capita, is lacking data on trauma care and system planning. Recently, 12 trauma centres were designated to be reassessed through a future national trauma registry by 2015. Lausanne University Hospital launched the first Swiss trauma registry in 2008, which contains the largest database on trauma activity nationwide. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from consecutively admitted shock room patients from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. Shock room admission is based on physiology and mechanism of injury, assessed by prehospital physicians. Management follows a surgeon-led multidisciplinary approach. Injuries are coded by Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM) certified coders. RESULTS: Over the 5 years, 1,599 trauma patients were admitted, predominantly males with a median age of 41.4 years and median injury severity score (ISS) of 13. Rate of ISS >15 was 42%. Principal mechanisms of injury were road traffic (40.4%) and falls (34.4%), with 91.5% blunt trauma. Principal patterns were brain (64.4%), chest (59.8%) and extremity/pelvic girdle (52.9%) injuries. Severe (abbreviated injury scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) orthopaedic injuries, defined as extremity and spine injuries together, accounted for 67.1%. Overall, 29.1% underwent immediate intervention, mainly by orthopaedics (27.3%), neurosurgeons (26.3 %) and visceral surgeons (13.9%); 43.8% underwent a surgical intervention within the first 24 hours and 59.1% during their hospitalisation. In-hospital mortality for patients with ISS >15 was 26.2%. CONCLUSION: This is the first 5-year report on trauma in Switzerland. Trauma workload was similar to other European countries. Despite high levels of healthcare, mortality exceeds published rates by >50%. Regardless of the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, trauma remains a surgical disease and needs dedicated surgical resources.

Morbidity and outcome after sentinel lymph node dissection in patients with early-stage malignant cutaneous melanoma.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective analysis of the morbidity and outcome of the sentinel lymph node (SLN) technique in a consecutive series of patients with early-stage melanoma. METHODS: Between 1997 and 1998, 60 patients with stage IB-II malignant melanoma underwent SLN dissection. Preoperative dynamic lymphoscintigraphy with mapping of the lymph vessels and lymph nodes and location of the sentinel node was performed the day before SLN dissection. SLN was identified by use of the blue dye technique. SLN was assessed for histopathological and immunohistochemical examination. Postoperative morbidity and mortality were recorded. Follow-up consisted of repetitive clinical examination with lymph nodes status, laboratory and radiologic findings. RESULTS: Tumor-positive SLN was observed in 18% of the patients and stage II disease was found in 91% of the patients with positive SLN. Breslow thickness was the only significant factor predicting involvement of a SLN (p = 0.02). In 36% of the positive SLN, metastases could be assessed only by immunohistochemical examination. Postoperative complications after SLN dissection were observed in 5% in comparison with 36% after elective lymph node dissection. After a mean follow-up of 32 months, recurrence was observed in 3% with a mean disease-free survival of 8 months. Overall survival was 82% and 90% in patients with positive and negative SLN, respectively. Overall mortality was 15%, due to distant metastases in 78% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: Staging of early-stage melanoma with the SLN dissection by use of the blue dye technique combined to lymphoscintigraphy and immunohistochemistry is reliable and safe, with less morbidity than elective lymphadenectomy. Long-term follow-up is mandatory to establish the exact reliability of SLN dissection.

Evaluating the impact of summer vacation on the visual acuity of AMD patients treated with ranibizumab.

PurposeTo evaluate the impact of traditional French summer vacation on visual acuity and spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) of Wet AMD patients being treated with intravitreal Ranibizumab.MethodsThis was a consecutive, comparative, single-centre, prospective analysis. All patients who were being treated with intravitreal injection of 0.5 mg ranibizumab at Cergy Pontoise Hospital, Department of Ophthalmology between July 2013 and September 2014 were included. Patients were divided into two groups: (A) patients who skipped one ranibizumab intravitreal injection during holidays, and (B) patients who received injection during their holidays. Evaluations occurred prior to traditional holiday (baseline) and 2 months later, consisting of BCVA using ETDRS, and a complete ophthalmic examination that included slit-lamp biomicroscopy, fundus examination, fluorescein angiography (FA), indocyanine green angiography (ICGA), and spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). All patients were being treated with PRN anti-VEGF regimen and criteria for reinjection included a visual acuity loss >5 ETDRS letters and/or an increase of central retinal thickness, presence of subretinal fluid, intraretinal fluid, or pigment epithelium detachment. If reinjection criteria were not met, patients were advised to return in 4 weeks.ResultsThe mean visual acuity change was -0.071±0.149 (LogMAR) in group A and +0.003±0.178 in group B (P=0.041). At the second visit (2 months after preholidays visit), 61.8% of patients in group A had SRF and/or intraretinal cysts, and only 27.6% of patients in group B. There was a significant difference in the persistence of fluid between the two groups (P=0.007, χ(2)-test).ConclusionThis cases series demonstrated the detrimental impact of holidays on visual acuity in patients treated with ranibizumab for AMD, which, in spite of their treatment regimen, still leave in vacation. Therefore, it is important to convey the message of treatment adherence to patients, despite their need of holidays.

Metabolic syndrome in young adults – prevalence, childhood predictors and association with subclinical atherosclerosis

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including central obesity, insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, hypertension and dyslipidemia. The prevalence of MetS is increasing worldwide in all age groups. MetS is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Aims: The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence, secular trends and childhood predictors of MetS in young adults. Furthermore, the relations between MetS and subclinical atherosclerosis were studied and whether apolipoproteins (apo) B and A-I, C-reactive protein (CRP) and type II secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) were associated with MetS, and to what extent the atherogenicity of MetS was explained by these factors. Participants and Methods: The present thesis is part of the large scale population-based, prospective study, the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. The first cross-sectional study was conducted in 1980 and included 3,596 participants aged 3-18 years. Carotid and brachial ultrasound studies were performed for 2,283 of these participants in 2001 and 2,200 of these participants in 2007. Results: The overall prevalence of MetS in young adults aged 24-39 years in 2001 was 10-15 % and 6 years later in 30-45 year-old adults it was 15-23 % depending on the MetS definition used. Between the years 1986 and 2001, MetS prevalence increased from 1.0 % to 7.5 % (p<0.0001) in 24-year-old participants that was mostly driven by the increased central obesity. Participants with MetS had increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and decreased carotid elasticity compared to those without the syndrome. Impaired brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) was not related to MetS but it modified the relationship between MetS and cIMT (P for interaction 0.023). High levels of apoB, CRP, sPLA2 and low levels of apoA-I associated with MetS in young adults. In prospective analysis both MetS and high apoB predicted (P<0.0001) incident high cIMT, defined as cIMT>90th percentile and/or plaque. The association between MetS and incident high cIMT was attenuated by ~40 % after adjustment with apoB. Conclusions: MetS is common in young adults and increases with age. Screening for risk factors, especially obesity, at an early life stage could help identify children and adolescents at increased risk of developing MetS and cardiovascular disease later in life. MetS identifies a population of young adults with evidence of increased subclinical atherosclerosis. Impaired brachial endothelial response is not a hallmark of MetS in young adults, but the status of endothelial function modifies the association between metabolic risk factors and atherosclerosis. In addition, the atherogenicity of MetS in this population assessed by incident high cIMT appears to be substantially mediated by elevated apoB.

Estado actual del sector estratégico hoteles boutique en Bogotá e identificación de los escenarios de desarrollo alternativos

En el presente trabajo se realizara la aplicación del modelo Análisis Estructural de los Sectores estratégicos y del análisis prospectivo para los hoteles que hacen parte del sector alojamiento en hoteles boutique en Bogotá en un periodo de cinco años. En estos modelos se tiene en cuenta la información financiera, interna y externa de la empresa y aspectos generales relacionados con la economía del sector. La investigación se desarrolló en dos etapas; la primera corresponde al desarrollo del AESE el cual se basa en cuatro herramientas (análisis de hacinamiento cuantitativo y cualitativo, levantamiento del panorama competitivo, análisis estructural de fuerzas del mercado y estudio de competidores) y el análisis prospectivo donde se aplica la metodología MICMAC, MACTOR y SMIC, en las cuales se determinan los escenarios alternativos teniendo presente la influencia que puedan tener los actores del sector y los aspectos sociales, políticos, tecnológicos y económicos en las definición de los escenarios.