Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

The expected and unexpected consequences of implementing energy efficient vehicle incentives

Completed as part of a Joint PhD program between Queensland University of Technology and the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, this thesis examines the effects of different government incentive policies on the demand, usage and pricing of energy efficient vehicles. This study outlines recommendations for policy makers aiming to increase the uptake of energy efficient vehicles. The study finds that whilst many government incentives have been successful in encouraging the uptake of energy efficient vehicles, policy makers need to both recognise and attempt to minimise the potential unintended consequences of such initiatives.

Women in leadership: An analysis of the gender pay gap in ASX-listed firms

This study provides evidence that after several decades of fighting for equal pay for equal work, an unexplained gender pay gap remains amongst senior executives in ASX-listed firms. After controlling for a large suite of personal, occupational and firm observables, we find female senior executives receive, on average, 22.58 percent less in base salary for the period 2002–2013. When executives are awarded performance-based pay, females receive on average 16.47 percent less in cash bonus and 18.21 percent less in long-term incentives than males. The results are robust to using firm fixed effects and propensity-score matching. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition results show that the mean pay gap cannot be attributed to gender differences in attributes, including job titles. Instead, the results point to differences in returns on firm-specific variables, in particular firm risk.

Openness to experience as a predictor and outcome of upward job changes into managerial and professional positions

In industrial and organizational psychology, there is a long tradition of studying personality as an antecedent of work outcomes. Recently, however, scholars have suggested that personality characteristics may not only predict, but also change due to certain work experiences, a notion that is depicted in the dynamic developmental model (DDM) of personality and work. Upward job changes are an important part of employees’ careers and career success in particular, and we argue that these career transitions can shape personality over time. In this study, we investigate the Big Five personality characteristics as both predictors and outcomes of upward job changes into managerial and professional positions. We tested our hypotheses by applying event history analyses and propensity score matching to a longitudinal dataset collected over five years from employees in Australia. Results indicated that participants’ openness to experience not only predicted, but that changes in openness to experience also followed from upward job changes into managerial and professional positions. Our findings thus provide support for a dynamic perspective on personality characteristics in the context of work and careers.

Consensus scoring for enriching near-native structures from protein-protein docking decoys

The identification of near native protein-protein complexes among a set of decoys remains highly challenging. A stategy for improving the success rate of near native detection is to enrich near native docking decoys in a small number of top ranked decoys. Recently, we found that a combination of three scoring functions (energy, conservation, and interface propensity) can predict the location of binding interface regions with reasonable accuracy. Here, these three scoring functions are modified and combined into a consensus scoring function called ENDES for enriching near native docking decoys. We found that all individual scores result in enrichment for the majority of 28 targets in ZDOCK2.3 decoy set and the 22 targets in Benchmark 2.0. Among the three scores, the interface propensity score yields the highest enrichment in both sets of protein complexes. When these scores are combined into the ENDES consensus score, a significant increase in enrichment of near-native structures is found. For example, when 2000 dock decoys are reduced to 200 decoys by ENDES, the fraction of near-native structures in docking decoys increases by a factor of about six in average. ENDES was implemented into a computer program that is available for download at http://sparks.informatics.iupui.edu.

Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysis of a survey

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014.Motivated by recent findings in the field of consumer science, this paper evaluates the causal effect of debit cards on household consumption using population-based data from the Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). Within the Rubin Causal Model, we focus on the estimand of population average treatment effect for the treated (PATT). We consider three existing estimators, based on regression, mixed matching and regression, propensity score weighting, and propose a new doubly-robust estimator. Semiparametric specification based on power series for the potential outcomes and the propensity score is adopted. Cross-validation is used to select the order of the power series. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of the estimators. The key assumptions, overlap and unconfoundedness, are systematically assessed and validated in the application. Our empirical results suggest statistically significant positive effects of debit cards on the monthly household spending in Italy.

Impact of community based, specialist palliative care teams on hospitalisations and emergency department visits late in life and hospital deaths: a pooled analysis

Objective: To determine the pooled effect of exposure to one of 11 specialist palliative care teams providing services in patients’ homes.Design: Pooled analysis of a retrospective cohort study.Setting: Ontario, Canada.Participants: 3109 patients who received care from specialist palliative care teams in 2009-11 (exposed) matched by propensity score to 3109 patients who received usual care (unexposed).Intervention: The palliative care teams studied served different geographies and varied in team composition and size but had the same core team members and role: a core group of palliative care physicians, nurses, and family physicians who provide integrated palliative care to patients in their homes. The teams’ role was to manage symptoms, provide education and care, coordinate services, and be available without interruption regardless of time or day.Main outcome measures: Patients (a) being in hospital in the last two weeks of life; (b) having an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life; or (c) dying in hospital.Results: In both exposed and unexposed groups, about 80% had cancer and 78% received end of life homecare services for the same average duration. Across all palliative care teams, 970 (31.2%) of the exposed group were in hospital and 896 (28.9%) had an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life respectively, compared with 1219 (39.3%) and 1070 (34.5%) of the unexposed group (P<0.001). The pooled relative risks of being in hospital and having an emergency department visit in late life comparing exposed versus unexposed were 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.76) and 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) respectively. Fewer exposed than unexposed patients died in hospital (503 (16.2%) v 887 (28.6%), P<0.001), and the pooled relative risk of dying in hospital was 0.46 (0.40 to 0.52).Conclusions: Community based specialist palliative care teams, despite variation in team composition and geographies, were effective at reducing acute care use and hospital deaths at the end of life.

The Effect of Community-Based Specialist Palliative Care Teams on Place of Care

BACKGROUND: Prior research on community-based specialist palliative care teams used outcome measures of place of death and/or dichotomous outcome measures of acute care use in the last two weeks of life. However, existing research seldom measured the diverse places of care used and their timing prior to death.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine the place of care in the last 30 days of life.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients who received care from a specialist palliative care team (exposed) were matched by propensity score to patients who received usual care in the community (unexposed) in Ontario, Canada. Measured was the percentage of patients in each place of care in the last month of life as a proportion of the total cohort.

RESULTS: After matching, 3109 patients were identified in each group, where 79% had cancer and 77% received end-of-life home care. At 30 days compared to 7 days before death, the exposed group's proportions rose from 33% to 41% receiving home care and 14% to 15% in hospital, whereas the unexposed group's proportions rose from 28% to 32% receiving home care and 16% to 22% in hospital. Linear trend analysis (proportion over time) showed that the exposed group used significantly more home care services and fewer hospital days (p < 0.001) than the unexposed group. On the last day of life (place of death), the exposed group had 18% die in an in-patient hospital bed compared to 29% in usual care.

CONCLUSION: Examining place of care in the last month can effectively illustrate the service use trajectory over time.

Statin use after diagnosis of breast cancer and survival: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Preclinical studies have shown that statins, particularly simvastatin, can prevent growth in breast cancer cell lines and animal models. We investigated whether statins used after breast cancer diagnosis reduced the risk of breast cancer-specific, or all-cause, mortality in a large cohort of breast cancer patients.

METHODS: A cohort of 17,880 breast cancer patients, newly diagnosed between 1998 and 2009, was identified from English cancer registries (from the National Cancer Data Repository). This cohort was linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2013), identifying 3694 deaths, including 1469 deaths attributable to breast cancer. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer-specific, and all-cause, mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using multiple imputation methods, propensity score methods and a case-control approach.

RESULTS: There was some evidence that statin use after a diagnosis of breast cancer had reduced mortality due to breast cancer and all causes (fully adjusted HR = 0.84 [95% confidence interval = 0.68-1.04] and 0.84 [0.72-0.97], respectively). These associations were more marked for simvastatin 0.79 (0.63-1.00) and 0.81 (0.70-0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based breast cancer cohort, there was some evidence of reduced mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis. However, these associations were weak in magnitude and were attenuated in some sensitivity analyses.

Angioplastia Primária na Mulher: Realidade Nacional

Objetivos: A mortalidade na mulher após angioplastia primária (ICP-P) é superior à do homem. Contudo, permanece contraditório o papel do sexo poder ser fator de risco independente para mortalidade no contexto de enfarte agudo do miocárdio com supradesnivelamento de ST (EAMST). Com base no Registo Nacional de Cardiologia de Intervenção (RNCI),pretendemos avaliar como é que o género feminino influencia o prognóstico a curto prazo nos doentes com EAMST submetidos a ICP-P a nível nacional. Métodos: De 60 158 doentes incluídos prospetivamente no RNCI de 2002-2012, incluímos na análise 7544 doentes com EAMST tratados por ICP-P, dos quais 25% foram mulheres. Utilizámos modelos de regressão logística e ajustamento por propensity score para avaliar o impacto do sexo na mortalidade hospitalar. Resultados: As mulheres foram mais idosas (68 ± 14 versus 61 ± 13, p < 0,001), mais diabéticas(30 versus 21%, p < 0,001) e hipertensas (69 versus 55%, p < 0,001). Os homens foram revascularizados mais cedo (71 versus 63% nas primeiras 6 horas, p < 0,001). Choque cardiogénico foi mais frequente nas mulheres (7,1 versus 5,7%, p = 0,032). Estas apresentaram um pior prognóstico a curto prazo, com 1,7 x maior risco de morte intra-hospitalar (4,3 versus 2,5%; IC 95% 1,30-2,27; p < 0,001). Utilizando um modelo de regressão ajustado através de um propensity score, o sexo deixa de ser preditor de mortalidade hospitalar (OR 1,00; IC 95% 0,68-1,48; p = 1,00). Conclusões: No RNCI as mulheres com EAMST tratadas com ICP-P apresentaram maior risco cardiovascular, um acesso menos atempado a ICP-P e um pior prognóstico. Contudo, após ajustamento do risco, o género feminino deixa de ser preditor independente de mortalidade hospitalar.

The graduate: Spillovers from the entry of the first worker with a college degree in a firm

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Double Degree in Economics from NOVA School of Business and Economics and Maastricht School of Business and Economics

The Swiss Systemic lupus erythematosus Cohort Study (SSCS) - cross-sectional analysis of clinical characteristics and treatments across different medical disciplines in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To describe disease characteristics and treatment modalities in a multidisciplinary cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients in Switzerland. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of 255 patients included in the Swiss SLE Cohort and coming from centres specialised in Clinical Immunology, Internal Medicine, Nephrology and Rheumatology. Clinical data were collected with a standardised form. Disease activity was assessed using the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-SLE Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI), an integer physician's global assessment score (PGA) ranging from 0 (inactive) to 3 (very active disease) and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). The relationship between SLE treatment and activity was assessed by propensity score methods using a mixed-effect logistic regression with a random effect on the contributing centre. RESULTS: Of the 255 patients, 82% were women and 82% were of European ancestry. The mean age at enrolment was 44.8 years and the median SLE duration was 5.2 years. Patients from Rheumatology had a significantly later disease onset. Renal disease was reported in 44% of patients. PGA showed active disease in 49% of patients, median SLEDAI was 4 and median ESR was 14 millimetre/first hour. Prescription rates of anti-malarial drugs ranged from 3% by nephrologists to 76% by rheumatologists. Patients regularly using anti-malarial drugs had significantly lower SELENA-SLEDAI scores and ESR values. CONCLUSION: In our cohort, patients in Rheumatology had a significantly later SLE onset than those in Nephrology. Anti-malarial drugs were mostly prescribed by rheumatologists and internists and less frequently by nephrologists, and appeared to be associated with less active SLE.

Effects of credit rating change on risk-taking

This thesis investigates whether there are changes in risk-taking behavior following an upgrade or downgrade in credit ratings. Research on effects of rating changes on capital markets is well-documented but the literature on how rating changes may affect firm behavior is sparse. Following, a downgrade in credit rating, managers may increase risk-taking to improve their overall performance or reduce risk-taking following upgrades to ensure that their performance is assessed more on the basis of what they may deem success in the form of an upgrade. Using a sample of firms trading in the U.S from 1994-2013, we find evidence of change in risk-taking behavior. We use cross-sectional regressions and matching using propensity scores and Barber and Lyon (1997) methodology to measure changes in risk-taking and we do find evidence of changes in managerial risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, we find that the direction of change (increase or decrease) in some cases is dependent on the type of measure rather than the type of rating change.

Étude de cohorte rétrospective analytique et descriptive des résultats échocardiographiques et cliniques de la chirurgie valvulaire tricuspidienne

Résumé - Les données concernant la prise en charge chirurgicale de la maladie tricuspidienne reposent sur des études de cohortes à petite échelle et peu d’entre elles se sont intéressées aux résultats échocardiographiques et aux facteurs de risque de mortalité et de morbidité. Une étude de cohorte rétrospective descriptive et analytique fut effectuée pour analyser l’expérience de l’Institut de Cardiologie de Montréal concernant la chirurgie de la VT. Les données ont été récoltées à l’aide des dossiers médicaux. Durant la période 1977-2008, 792 PVT et 134 RVT furent effectués (âge médian : 62 ans). La mortalité opératoire était de 13,8%. Les taux de survie actuarielle à 5, à 10 et à 15 ans étaient respectivement de 67±2%, de 47±2% et de 29±2%. Au dernier suivi, de l’IT ≥3/4 était présente chez 31% des patients du groupe PVT et chez 12% des patients du groupe RVT (p<0,001). La classe fonctionnelle NYHA s’est améliorée significativement au dernier suivi par rapport à la période pré-opératoire (p<0,001). L’analyse de propension montre que par rapport à une PVT, un RVT est associé significativement à des taux de mortalité opératoire et tardive accrus, mais à moins d’IT ≥2/4 ou ≥3/4 lors du suivi. Cette étude montre que malgré le risque chirurgical substantiel associé à la chirurgie de la VT, les patients bénéficient d’une amélioration fonctionnelle significative. Les facteurs de risque de mortalité et de morbidité sont décrits et des études de sous-groupes sur la chirurgie tri-valvulaire et la chirurgie isolée de la VT sont exposées.