Kiigazítás recesszió nélkül. Esettanulmány a magyar stabilizációról = Adjustment without recession: A Case Study of Hungarian Stabilization

1995. március 12-én a magyar kormány és a központi bank szigorú kiigazítási és stabilizációs programot hirdetett meg. A cikk az első eredmények számbavételére tesz kísérletet. A program meghirdetése előtt Magyarország két egymást követő év- ben hatalmas fizetésimérleg-hiányt mutatott fel, és nemzetközi megítélése romlani kezdett. A program radikális intézkedései nyomán elkerülhetővé vált a mexikói vál- sághoz hasonló pénzügyi katasztrófa. Sok makrogazdasági mutató jól érzékelhető javulást jelez: lényegesen csökkent a kereskedelmi mérleg és a folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya, a költségvetés elsődleges egyenlege pozitív lett. Az ilyesféle stabilizációs programokat rendszerint súlyos visszaesés és a munkanélküliség nagy növekedése kíséri. Magyarország elkerülte ezeket a mellékhatásokat: a GDP drasztikus vissza- esés helyett valamelyest tovább növekedett, és a munkanélküliség változatlan ma- radt. A javulásnak nagy ára volt: az életszínvonal erőteljes csökkenése, az infláció felgyorsulása, bár a magyarországi infláció még mindig a kézben tartott, mérsékelt infláció sávjában maradt. A cikk ismerteti a program heterodox módszereit: 1. nagy leértékelés, az előre meghirdetett csúszó árfolyam rezsimjének bevezetése, valamint ideiglenes import- vámpótlék kivetése; 2. határozott jövedelempolitika, amely 12 százalékos reálbércsök- kenést kényszerített ki; 3. fiskális intézkedések, köztük jóléti jogosultságok csök- kentése (a program meghirdetése előtt ezek a jogosultságok tabuk voltak); 4. a hitel- kínálat átcsoportosítása a vállalati szektor javára, a jövedelmezőség növekedése; 5. feszített (bár nem mértéktelenül feszített) monetáris politika, amely lehetővé tette a sikeres vállalatok expanzióját; 6. a privatizáció felgyorsítása, nagy és sikeres lépé- sek egyes kulcsszektorok (energia, telekommunikáció) privatizációjában. Végezetül a tanulmány óva int a túlzott magabiztosságtól és felhívja a figyelmet a potenciális veszélyekre. A makrogazdasági javulás még törékeny. A magyar fejlődés legbiztatóbb sajátossága a termelékenység erőteljes és folyamatos növekedése. / === / On March 12, 1995 Hungary s government and central bank announced a tough program of adjustment and stabilization. This study is an attempt to asses the first results. Before the announcement of the program Hungary had a huge current account deficit for two consecutive years, and her international reputation started to decline. The program s radical measures made it possible to avoid a Mexico-style financial catastrophe. Many macroeconomic indicators show tangible improvement: the trade deficit and the deficit on the current account have been reduced significantly, the primary budget shifted to surplus. These kinds of adjustment programs are usually associated with deep recession and a large increase of unemployment. Hungary avoided these adverse side-effects: GDP instead of a drastic decline, continued to grow somewhat, and unemployment remained unchanged. There was a high price for the improvement: a sharp decline in the standard of living, and an acceleration of inflation, although Hungary is still in the range of controlled, moderate inflation. The paper describes the heterodox instruments of the program: (1) large devaluation, followed by a new exchange rate regime of pre-announced crawling peg, and a temporary import surcharge, (2) energetic income policy, enforcing a 12% cut in real wages; (3) fiscal measures, including cuts in welfare entitlements. That happened for the first time: before the program entitlements had been regarded as taboo ; (4) reallocation of credit supply in favor of the enterprise sector; increase of profitability; (5) tight (but not excessively tight) monetary policy, allowing the expansion of successful private busi- ness; (6) acceleration of privatisation, including large and successful steps in the privatisation of some key sectors (energy, telecommunication). Finally the paper warns against excessive self- confidence and draws the attention to potential dangers. The macroeconomic improvement is still fragile. The most reassuring feature of Hungary s development is the impressive and persistent improvement of productivity.

The Effect Of Celastrol, A Triterpene With Antitumorigenic Activity, On Conformational And Functional Aspects Of The Human 90kda Heat Shock Protein Hsp90α, A Chaperone Implicated In The Stabilization Of The Tumor Phenotype.

Hsp90 is a molecular chaperone essential for cell viability in eukaryotes that is associated with the maturation of proteins involved in important cell functions and implicated in the stabilization of the tumor phenotype of various cancers, making this chaperone a notably interesting therapeutic target. Celastrol is a plant-derived pentacyclic triterpenoid compound with potent antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anticancer activities; however, celastrol's action mode is still elusive. In this work, we investigated the effect of celastrol on the conformational and functional aspects of Hsp90α. Interestingly, celastrol appeared to target Hsp90α directly as the compound induced the oligomerization of the chaperone via the C-terminal domain as demonstrated by experiments using a deletion mutant. The nature of the oligomers was investigated by biophysical tools demonstrating that a two-fold excess of celastrol induced the formation of a decameric Hsp90α bound throughout the C-terminal domain. When bound, celastrol destabilized the C-terminal domain. Surprisingly, standard chaperone functional investigations demonstrated that neither the in vitro chaperone activity of protecting against aggregation nor the ability to bind a TPR co-chaperone, which binds to the C-terminus of Hsp90α, were affected by celastrol. Celastrol interferes with specific biological functions of Hsp90α. Our results suggest a model in which celastrol binds directly to the C-terminal domain of Hsp90α causing oligomerization. However, the ability to protect against protein aggregation (supported by our results) and to bind to TPR co-chaperones are not affected by celastrol. Therefore celastrol may act primarily by inducing specific oligomerization that affects some, but not all, of the functions of Hsp90α. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first work to use multiple probes to investigate the effect that celastrol has on the stability and oligomerization of Hsp90α and on the binding of this chaperone to Tom70. This work provides a novel mechanism by which celastrol binds Hsp90α.

Haptic Stabilization of Posture in Adults With Intellectual Disabilities Using a Nonrigid Tool

This study assessed the effects of haptic information on the postural control systems of individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID), through the use of a nonrigid tool that we call the ""anchor system"" (e.g., ropes attached to graduated weights that rest on the floor). Eleven participants with ID were asked to stand, blindfolded, on a balance beam placed at two heights (10 and 20 cm), for 30 s, while using the anchor system at two weights. The lighter anchor weight appeared to improve the individuals' balance in contrast to a control task condition; therefore, we concluded that haptic sensitivity was more significant in helping to orient the body than was the anchor's mechanical support alone.

On the stabilization of conducting pernigraniline salt by the synthesis and oxidation of polyaniline in hydrophobic ionic liquids

The electrochemical polymerization of aniline in a hydrophobic room-temperature ionic liquid and the spectroelectrochemical characterization of the formed film are presented. The polymerization occurs without the presence of acid in 1-butyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (BMMITFSI), leading to a very stable electroactive material where no degradation was observed even at high applied potentials. Both in situ UV-Vis and Raman spectroscopic studies provided evidence for the stabilization of pernigraniline salt at high oxidation potentials and that this polyaniline state is the conducting form, as was corroborated by in situ resistance measurements. These data are indicative that low conductivity is not an intrinsic property of pernigraniline salt and this point must be reconsidered.

E-contracting with price configuration for Web services and QoS

The large amount of information in electronic contracts hampers their establishment due to high complexity. An approach inspired in Software Product Line (PL) and based on feature modelling was proposed to make this process more systematic through information reuse and structuring. By assessing the feature-based approach in relation to a proposed set of requirements, it was showed that the approach does not allow the price of services and of Quality of Services (QoS) attributes to be considered in the negotiation and included in the electronic contract. Thus, this paper also presents an extension of such approach in which prices and price types associated to Web services and QoS levels are applied. An extended toolkit prototype is also presented as well as an experiment example of the proposed approach.

Immobilization and stabilization of microbial lipases by multipoint covalent attachment on aldehyde-resin affinity: Application of the biocatalysts in biodiesel synthesis

Microbial lipase preparations from Thermomyces lanuginosus (TLL) and Pseudomonas fluorescens (PFL) were immobilized by multipoint covalent attachment on Toyopearl AF-amino-650M resin and the most active and thermal stable derivatives used to catalyze the transesterificanon reaction of babassu and palm oils with ethanol in solvent-free media For this different activating agents mainly glutaraldehyde glycidol and epichlorohydrin were used and immobilization parameters were estimated based on the hydrolysis of olive oil emulsion and butyl butyrate synthesis ILL immobilized on glyoxyl-resin allowed obtaining derivatives with the highest hydrolytic activity (HA(der)) and thermal stability between 27 and 31 times more stable than the soluble lipase Although PFL derivatives were found to be less active and thermally stables similar formation of butyl butyrate concentrations were found for both ILL and PFL derivatives The highest conversion into biodiesel was found in the transesterification of palm oil catalyzed by both ILL and PFL glyoxyl-derivatives (c) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Morphological and molecular characterization of cyanobacteria from a Brazilian facultative wastewater stabilization pond and evaluation of microcystin production

The cyanobacterial population in the Cajati waste stabilization pond system (WSP) from Sao Paulo State, Brazil was assessed by cell isolation and direct microscope counting techniques. Ten strains, belonging to five genera (Synechococcus, Merismopedia, Leptolyngbya, Limnothrix, and Nostoc), were isolated and identified by morphological and molecular analyses. Morphological identification of the isolated strains was congruent with their phylogenetic analyses based on 16S rDNA gene sequences. Six cyanobacterial genera (Synechocystis, Aphanocapsa, Merismopedia, Lyngbya, Phormidium, and Pseudanabaena) were identified by direct microscope inspection. Both techniques were complementary, since, of the six genera identified by direct microscopic inspection, only Merismopedia was isolated, and the four other isolated genera were not detected by direct inspection. Direct microscope counting of preserved cells showed that cyanobacteria were the dominant members (> 90%) of the phytoplankton community during both periods evaluated (summer and autumn). ELISA tests specific for hepatotoxicmicrocystins gave positive results for six strains (Synechococcus CENA108, Merismopedia CENA106, Leptolyngbya CENA103, Leptolyngbya CENA112, Limnothrix CENA109, and Limnothrix CENA110), and for wastewater samples collected from raw influent (3.70 mu g microcystins/l) and treated effluent (3.74 mu g microcystins/l) in summer. Our findings indicate that toxic cyanobacteria in WSP systems are of concern, since the treated effluent containing cyanotoxins will be discharged into rivers, irrigation channels, estuaries, or reservoirs, and can affect human and animal health.

Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency`s economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of ""Law and Economics,`` with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

Cement stabilization of runoff residuals: A study of stabilization/solidification of urban rainfall-runoff residuals in type 1 Portland cement by XRD and Si-29 NMR analysis

Urban rainfall-runoff residuals contain metals such as Cr, Zn, Cu, As, Pb and Cd and are thus reasonable candidates for treatment using Portland cement-based solidification-stabilization (S/S). This research is a study of S/S of urban storm water runoff solid residuals in Portland cement with quicklime and sodium bentonite additives. The solidified residuals were analyzed after 28 days of hydration time using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and solid-state Si-29 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction (XRD) results indicate that the main cement hydration products are ettringite, calcium hydroxide and hydrated calcium silicates. Zinc hydroxide and lead and zinc silicates are also present due to the reactions of the waste compounds with the cement and its hydration products. Si-29 NMR analysis shows that the coarse fraction of the waste apparently does not interfere with cement hydration, but the fine fraction retards silica polymerization.

Vibration-enhanced posture stabilization achieved by tactile supplementation: May blind individuals get extra benefits?

Diminished balance ability poses a serious health risk due to the increased likelihood of falling, and impaired postural stability is significantly associated with blindness and poor vision. Noise stimulation (by improving the detection of sub-threshold somatosensory information) and tactile supplementation (i.e. additional haptic information provided by an external contact surface) have been shown to improve the performance of the postural control system. Moreover, vibratory noise added to the source of tactile supplementation (e.g. applied to a surface that the fingertip touches) has been shown to enhance balance stability more effectively than tactile supplementation alone. In view of the above findings, in addition to the well established consensus that blind subjects show superior abilities in the use of tactile information, we hypothesized that blind subjects may take extra benefits from the vibratory noise added to the tactile supplementation and hence show greater improvements in postural stability than those observed for sighted subjects. If confirmed, this hypothesis may lay the foundation for the development of noise-based assistive devices (e.g. canes, walking sticks) for improving somatosensation and hence prevent falls in blind individuals. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Phenolic composition of South American red wines classified according to their antioxidant activity, retail price and sensory quality

In this study, 73 South American red wines (Vitis vinifera) from 5 varietals were classified based on sensory quality, retail price and antioxidant activity and characterised in relation to their phenolic composition. ORAC and DPPH assays were assessed to determine the antioxidant activity, and sensory analysis was conducted by seven professional tasters using the Wine Spirits Education Trust`s structured scales. The use of multivariate statistical techniques allowed the identification of wines with the best combination of sensory characteristics, price and antioxidant activity. The most favourable varieties were Malbec, Cabernet Sauvignon, and Syrah produced in Chile and Argentina. Conversely, Pinot Noir wines displayed the lowest sensory characteristics and antioxidant activity. These results suggest that the volatile compounds may be the main substances responsible for differentiating red wines on the basis of sensory evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stabilization of an amylase from Neurospora crassa by immobilization on highly activated supports

The amylase from Neurospora crassa is an interesting enzyme, having higher stability than amylase from Aspergillus oryzea under a broad range of pH values. Moreover, the N. crassa enzyme may be immobilized on different supports with good retention of enzyme activity. The best stabilizations were achieved using Eupergit C 250 L or glyoxyl agarose, with which the enzyme remained fully active at 60C for 24 h while the soluble enzyme remained about 17%. The glyoxyl agarose immobilized enzyme had high thermostability, high optimal temperature (65C) and broad pH/activity profile, suggesting that this enzyme has potential for food and industrial applications for starch modification.

Stabilization of Endophytic Fungus Cercospora kikuchii Lipase by Spray Drying in the Presence of Maltodextrin and beta-Cyclodextrin

In this study the effects of spray-drying conditions on the retention of enzyme activity of lipase produced by the endophytic fungus Cercospora kikuchii have been investigated. Drying runs were carried out in a bench-top spray dryer with a concurrent flow regime. The influence of the variables inlet temperature of drying gas, Tgi (86.4 to 153.6 degrees C); mass flow rate of the enzymatic extract fed to the dryer, Ws (2.63 to 9.36g/min); and concentration of the drying adjuvant added to the extract, ADJ (1.95 to 12.05%), on the spray-drying performance and on product quality was evaluated through experimental planning and regression analysis. The use of maltodextrin, as a stabilizing agent, slightly improved the retention of enzyme activity compared to -cyclodextrin. Statistical optimization of the experimental results allowed the determination of the processing conditions that maximized the retention of the enzymatic activity (RAE), namely, concentration of drying adjuvants of 12.05%, inlet temperature of the drying gas of 153.6 degrees C, and flow rate of the enzymatic extract fed to the dryer of 9.36g/min for the both drying adjuvants investigated.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.