Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Arterial traffic congestion analysis using Bluetooth duration data

The aim of this study is to assess the potential use of Bluetooth data for traffic monitoring of arterial road networks. Bluetooth data provides the direct measurement of travel time between pairs of scanners, and intensive research has been reported on this topic. Bluetooth data includes “Duration” data, which represents the time spent by Bluetooth devices to pass through the detection range of Bluetooth scanners. If the scanners are located at signalised intersections, this Duration can be related to intersection performance, and hence represents valuable information for traffic monitoring. However the use of Duration has been ignored in previous analyses. In this study, the Duration data as well as travel time data is analysed to capture the traffic condition of a main arterial route in Brisbane. The data consists of one week of Bluetooth data provided by Brisbane City Council. As well, micro simulation analysis is conducted to further investigate the properties of Duration. The results reveal characteristics of Duration, and address future research needs to utilise this valuable data source.

An innovative approach to reducing risks associated with infant feeding : the use of technology

Infant feeding is a complex behavior enacted in a risk adverse society. Despite ongoing communication and education strategies, breastfeeding rates in countries like Australia, the US, and the UK remain static, thus increasing the risk of short and long-term health problems. Health professionals and non-profit organizations recognize social marketing as an appropriate strategy for increasing breastfeeding duration since it addresses the shortfalls of education-only campaigns. Technology as an innovative alternative to mass media and education has the potential to reduce the social price of breastfeeding by assisting women to manage the identity and health risks associated with infant feeding. This paper reports findings from six focus groups that explored the risks associated with breastfeeding and the potential role of technology in ameliorating these risks. A key finding of this research was that technology has the potential to negate the impact of perceived uncertainty and lack of control associated with breastfeeding. The results indicated that future breastfeeding campaigns that are innovative in their approach and use technology may be more effective in changing breastfeeding behavior.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Duration-dependant response of mixed-method pre-cooling for intermittent-sprint exercise in the heat

This study examined the effects of pre-cooling duration on performance and neuromuscular function for self-paced intermittent-sprint shuttle running in the heat. Eight male, team-sport athletes completed two 35-min bouts of intermittent-sprint shuttle running separated by a 15-min recovery on three separate occasions (33°C, 34% relative humidity). Mixed-method pre-cooling was completed for 20 min (COOL20), 10-min (COOL10) or no cooling (CONT) and reapplied for 5-min mid-exercise. Performance was assessed via sprint times, percentage decline and shuttle-running distance covered. Maximal voluntary contractions (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch properties were recorded pre- and post-intervention and mid- and post-exercise. Core temperature (T c), skin temperature, heart rate, capillary blood metabolites, sweat losses, perceptual exertion and thermal stress were monitored throughout. Venous blood draws pre- and post-exercise were analyzed for muscle damage and inflammation markers. Shuttle-running distances covered were increased 5.2 ± 3.3% following COOL20 (P < 0.05), with no differences observed between COOL10 and CONT (P > 0.05). COOL20 aided in the maintenance of mid- and post-exercise MVC (P < 0.05; d > 0.80), despite no conditional differences in VA (P > 0.05). Pre-exercise T c was reduced by 0.15 ± 0.13°C with COOL20 (P < 0.05; d > 1.10), and remained lower throughout both COOL20 and COOL10 compared to CONT (P < 0.05; d > 0.80). Pre-cooling reduced sweat losses by 0.4 ± 0.3 kg (P < 0.02; d > 1.15), with COOL20 0.2 ± 0.4 kg less than COOL10 (P = 0.19; d = 1.01). Increased pre-cooling duration lowered physiological demands during exercise heat stress and facilitated the maintenance of self-paced intermittent-sprint performance in the heat. Importantly, the dose-response interaction of pre-cooling and sustained neuromuscular responses may explain the improved exercise performance in hot conditions.

Comparing the availability, price, variety and quality of fruits and vegetables across retail outlets and by area level socioeconomic position

Abstract Objective: To explore whether area-level socioeconomic position or the form of retail stream (conventional versus farmers’ market) are associated with differences in the price, availability, variety and quality of a range of fresh fruit and vegetables. Design: A multi-site cross-sectional pilot study of farmers’ markets, supermarkets and independent fruit and vegetable retailers. Each was surveyed to assess the price, availability, variety and quality of 15 fruit and 18 vegetable items. Setting: Retail outlets were located in South-East Queensland. Subjects: Fifteen retail outlets were surveyed (five of each retail stream). Results: Average basket prices were not significantly different across the socioeconomic spectrum however prices in low socioeconomic areas were cheapest. Availability, variety, and quality did not differ across levels of socioeconomic position however the areas with the most socioeconomic disadvantage scored poorest for quality and variety. Supermarkets had significantly better fruit and vegetable availability than farmers’ markets however price, variety and quality scores were not different across retail streams. Results demonstrate a trend to fruit and vegetable prices being more expensive at farmers’ markets, with the price of the Fruit basket being significantly greater at the organic farmer’s market compared with the non-organic farmers’ markets. Conclusions: Neither area-level socioeconomic position nor the form of retail stream was significantly associated with differences in the availability, price, variety and quality of fruit and vegetables, except for availability which was higher in supermarkets than farmers’ markets. Further research is needed to determine what role farmers’ markets can play in affecting fruit and vegetable intake.

An analytical method for assessing stage-specific drug activity in Plasmodium vivax malaria : implications for ex vivo drug susceptibility testing

The emergence of highly chloroquine (CQ) resistant P. vivax in Southeast Asia has created an urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms of drug resistance in these parasites, the development of robust tools for defining the spread of resistance, and the discovery of new antimalarial agents. The ex vivo Schizont Maturation Test (SMT), originally developed for the study of P. falciparum, has been modified for P. vivax. We retrospectively analysed the results from 760 parasite isolates assessed by the modified SMT to investigate the relationship between parasite growth dynamics and parasite susceptibility to antimalarial drugs. Previous observations of the stage-specific activity of CQ against P. vivax were confirmed, and shown to have profound consequences for interpretation of the assay. Using a nonlinear model we show increased duration of the assay and a higher proportion of ring stages in the initial blood sample were associated with decreased effective concentration (EC50) values of CQ, and identify a threshold where these associations no longer hold. Thus, starting composition of parasites in the SMT and duration of the assay can have a profound effect on the calculated EC50 for CQ. Our findings indicate that EC50 values from assays with a duration less than 34 hours do not truly reflect the sensitivity of the parasite to CQ, nor an assay where the proportion of ring stage parasites at the start of the assay does not exceed 66%. Application of this threshold modelling approach suggests that similar issues may occur for susceptibility testing of amodiaquine and mefloquine. The statistical methodology which has been developed also provides a novel means of detecting stage-specific drug activity for new antimalarials.

The high price of hesitation where time of the essence

The decision of Lai v Soineva [2011] QSC 247 in relation to the operation of standard conditions in the Queensland REIQ contract highlights a very practical issue often overlooked in the heat of a transaction .The point is relatively simple. In this instance ,the case concerned the interpretation of the printed "Building and Pest Inspection Clause" but is of relevance to the printed "Finance Clause" in the same contract as the wording and principles are identical. It highlights the issue of knowing well what is in the standard contract and not making assumptions. The case also highlights the cost to a party of dithering in making an election in a time of the essence environment

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Arbitration proceeding – determination of “market price” – subpoena under Commercial Arbitration Act 1990 s 17

AGL Wholesale Gas Ltd v Origin Energy Ltd [2008] QCA 366 involved an appeal against the setting aside of paragraphs of a subpoena issued under s 17 of the Commercial Arbitration Act 1990 (Qld). The Court was satisfied that even if the documents were of “apparent relevance” to the subject matter of the proceedings, it would nevertheless be oppressive to require their production.