Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photograpy

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

Vice chancellors for the 21st century? A study of contemporary recruitment and selection practices in Australian universities

This article is based on recent Ph.D research. The practices for appointing Vice Chancellors (VC's) in Australian Universities were examined, together with the changing role of the VC and new demographic patterns in VC backgrounds. A number of other issues were also examined, including the training and preparation of VC's, mentoring and the changing skill base required to be effective in the role. In addition, the paradox was investigated of appointing academics from the ranks of individuals with non-business backgrounds, to run large enterprises which are being compelled to adopt an increasingly business-oriented focus. The methodology employed involved the use of a survey instrument administered to present and former VC's, Chancellors and members of selection panels, supplemented by interviews. Representatives of the Australian Vice Chancellors Committee (AVCC) and consultants operating in the academic field were also interviewed. In addition, extensive use was made of public domain material. The research was mainly qualitative in nature. However, use was also made of descriptive statistics to provide an insight into how higher education in Australia is changing and to analyse survey findings. Some key results of the research are reported, including the importance of informal processes such as networking in the selection of VC's, the key role played by Chancellors, and the continued practice of appointing VC's from within academia rather than the private sector. This is in spite of evidence that the role of the VC has changed to one of strategic planner and business manager rather than the more traditional role, in the context of a rapidly changing external environment. Suggestions are also made for ongoing research in the area.

Surviving the maelstrom : teacher educator in the 21st century

A plethora of reports, research papers and commentaries have focused on teacher education in Australia, its quality, status and ability to adequately prepare teachers for the 21st century. There is however, little research on the worklives of teacher educators, in particular Australian teacher educators. That which does exist tends to focus on new teacher educators (how to best prepare and induct them) and experienced and senior teacher educators (personal reflections and narratives) (see for example, Acker, 1997; Cochran-Smith, 2002; Murray & Male, 2005). What is missing from this research field is an exploration of the contemporary contexts that shape the worklives of Australian teacher educators, and in particular how these contexts influence the work of teacher educators in between these two demographic groups. How post-induction early-mid career teacher educators (re)negotiate their professional identities in view of the changing role of ‘the teacher educator’ in the 21st century is therefore, an under-researched area of study. This paper provides a brief overview of the existent research on teacher educators and highlights areas in need of further examination. Two particular contexts shaping the work of Australian teacher educators are examined: the standards movement, and marketisation and the rise of new mangerialism as are the ramifications of these on the teacher education landscape. How these have impacted on how teacher educators perceive themselves and are perceived by others is subsequently explored as are the implications of these changing contexts on the work of teacher educators in the 21st century. To discuss these issues I draw on my experiences in teacher education and highlight the challenges and opportunities available for teacher educators as we try to ‘survive the maelstrom’. This paper is significant given the federal government’s commitment to social inclusion and an ‘Education Revolution” (ACDE, 2008). Education academics are critical to advancing the [Government’s] complex agendas around innovation, productivity and inclusion (ACDE, 2008, p1). In the next 15 years, over half of the currently working teacher education academics will retire. There is therefore a need to not only attract new and talented people into the teacher education workforce, but to retain those early-mid career academics who have entered teacher education, and are like me, finding it hard to “survive the maelstrom”.

Teaching secondary school mathematics : research and practice for the 21st century

For the last decade or so, educational policy makers and researchers in many countries have been calling for significant changes to the way mathematics is taught in secondary schools. Australian mathematics curriculum documents now promote learning goals that go beyond mastery of a pre-determined body of knowledge and procedures - the traditional emphasis on facts, skills, formulae - to include mathematical reasoning and problem solving, communication, and real world applications. There is also pressure to move away from over-reliance on teacher-centred practices such as exposition and individual seatwork, towards activities that promote learners' involvement in constructing, applying, and evaluating mathematical ideas. Further impetus for reform comes from research recommending that if learners are to develop mathematically powerful forms of thinking and habits of mind, then classrooms should immerse them in the authentic practices of the discipline by supporting a culture of collaboration and sense-making. Teaching Secondary School Mathematics - incorporates recent developments in research and practice and applications to teaching mathematics in Australian secondary schools. Covering such areas as curriculum, pedagogy and assessment; teaching mathematical content; equity and diversity in the classroom; and professional and community engagement, it is an invaluable resource for all practising and pre-service mathematics teachers.

Trends in Australian contact lens prescribing during the first decade of the 21st century (2000–2009)

Purpose:  The aim was to document contact lens prescribing trends in Australia between 2000 and 2009.

Methods:  A survey of contact lens prescribing trends was conducted each year between 2000 and 2009. Australian optometrists were asked to provide information relating to 10 consecutive contact lens fittings between January and March each year.

Results:  Over the 10-year survey period, 1,462 practitioners returned survey forms representing a total of 13,721 contact lens fittings. The mean age (± SD) of lens wearers was 33.2 ± 13.6 years and 65 per cent were female. Between 2006 and 2009, rigid lens new fittings decreased from 18 to one per cent. Low water content lenses reduced from 11.5 to 3.2 per cent of soft lens fittings between 2000 and 2008. Between 2005 and 2009, toric lenses and multifocal lenses represented 26 and eight per cent, respectively, of all soft lenses fitted. Daily disposable, one- to two-week replacement and monthly replacement lenses accounted for 11.6, 30.0 and 46.5 per cent of all soft lens fittings over the survey period, respectively. The proportion of new soft fittings and refittings prescribed as extended wear has generally declined throughout the past decade. Multi-purpose lens care solutions dominate the market. Rigid lenses and monthly replacement soft lenses are predominantly worn on a full-time basis, whereas daily disposable soft lenses are mainly worn part-time.

Conclusions:  This survey indicates that technological advances, such as the development of new lens materials, manufacturing methods and lens designs, and the availability of various lens replacement options, have had a significant impact on the contact lens market during the first decade of the 21st Century.

Global perspectives on the politics of multiculturalism in the 21st century: a case study analysis

Multiculturalism is now seen by many of its critics as the source of intercultural and social tensions, fostering communal segregation and social conflicts. While the cultural diversity of contemporary societies has to be acknowledged as an empirical and demographic fact, whether multiculturalism as a policy offers an optimal conduit for intercultural understanding and social harmony has become increasingly a matter of polarised public debate.
This book examines the contested philosophical foundations of multiculturalism and its, often controversial, applications in the context of migrant societies. It also explores the current theoretical debates about the extent to which multiculturalism, and related conceptual constructs, can account for the various ethical challenges and policy dilemmas surrounding the management of cultural diversity in our contemporary societies. The authors consider common conceptual and empirical features from a transnational perspective through analysis of the case studies of Australia, Canada, Columbia, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Uruguay.

Can IT Security be improved with better IT Leadership in the 21st Century University?

Organizations generally are not responding effectively to rising IT security threats because people issues receive inadequate attention. The stark example of IT security is just the latest strategic IT priority demonstrating deficient IT leadership attention to the social dimension of IT. Universities in particular, with their devolved people organization, diverse adoption of IT, and split central/local federated approach to governance and leadership of IT, demand higher levels of interpersonal sophistication and strategic engagement from their IT leaders. An idealized model for IT leaders for the 21st century university is proposed to be developed as a framework for further investigation. The testing of this model in an action research study is proposed.

Report on Innovation Working Group : The Mathematics Education into the 21st Century Project. Dresden, Saxony

This document reports on the Innovations Working Group that met at the 10th International Conference “Models in Developing Mathematics Education” from the 11-17th September 2009 in Dresden, Saxony. It briefly describes the over arching and consistent themes that emerged from the numerous papers presented. The authors and titles of each of the papers presented will be listed in Table 2.

21st Century politics : new faces/new spaces

Politics has been described as a man’s game and a man’s place. Further, the design of houses of politics also embeds this dominant masculine ethos. Traditional Chambers have been large with only limited seating arrangements ensuring that only privileged elite can participate and both officials and the public are located at some distance and separate from the elected officials. Such a Chamber ensures that Members need to face each other and the dominant interaction is adversarial. Within this system however, women have been able to carve out new spaces, or use existing ones in different ways, to become more involved with the mechanisms of parliament and provide alternative routes to leadership. In doing so, they have introduced elements of the private domain (nurturing, dialogue and inclusion) to the public domain. The way in which space is used is fundamental and its treatment has consequences for individuals, organizations and societies (Clegg and Kornberger 2006). Dale’s (2005) work emphasises the social character of architecture which recognises the impact which it has on the behaviours of individuals and nowhere is this more pertinent than the way the Australian Parliament House operates. This paper draws on the experiences of Australian parliamentarians to examine the way in which the new Australian Parliament House shapes the way in which the Australian political cultural norms and practices are shaped and maintained. It also seeks to explore the way the Members of Parliament (MPs) experience these spaces and how some MPs have been able to bring new ways of utilising the space to ensure it is more accommodating to the men and women who inhabit this building at the apex of Australia’s political life. In doing so, such MPs are seeking to ensure that the practices and processes of Australia’s political system are reflective of the men and women who inhabit this national institution in the beginning of the 21st century.