Convergent Approaches for the Synthesis of the Anti-tumoral Peptide, Kahalalide F. Study of Orthogonal Protecting Groups

Kahalalide compounds are peptides that are isolated from a Hawaiian herbivorous marine species of mollusc, Elysia rufescens, and its diet, the green alga Bryopsis sp. Kahalalide F and its synthetic analogues are the most promising compounds of the Kahalalide family because they show anti-tumoral activity. Linear solid-phase syntheses of Kahalalide F have been reported. Here we describe several new improved synthetic routes based on convergent approaches with distinct orthogonal protection schemes for the preparation of Kahaladide analogues. These strategies allow a better control and characterization of the intermediates because more reactions are performed in solution. Five derivatives of Kahalalide F were synthesized using several convergent approaches.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Orthogonal function method in modelling paper web quality variation

This work is devoted to the analysis of signal variation of the Cross-Direction and Machine-Direction measurements from paper web. The data that we possess comes from the real paper machine. Goal of the work is to reconstruct the basis weight structure of the paper and to predict its behaviour to the future. The resulting synthetic data is needed for simulation of paper web. The main idea that we used for describing the basis weight variation in the Cross-Direction is Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) algorithm, which is closely related to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. Signal forecasting in time is based on Time-Series analysis. Two principal mathematical procedures that we used in the work are Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) modelling and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process.

Évaluation des performances de couverture d'un GARCH multivarié à corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques de type Engle (2002).

Rapport de recherche

Aggregations and Marginalization of GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models

The GARCH and Stochastic Volatility paradigms are often brought into conflict as two competitive views of the appropriate conditional variance concept : conditional variance given past values of the same series or conditional variance given a larger past information (including possibly unobservable state variables). The main thesis of this paper is that, since in general the econometrician has no idea about something like a structural level of disaggregation, a well-written volatility model should be specified in such a way that one is always allowed to reduce the information set without invalidating the model. To this respect, the debate between observable past information (in the GARCH spirit) versus unobservable conditioning information (in the state-space spirit) is irrelevant. In this paper, we stress a square-root autoregressive stochastic volatility (SR-SARV) model which remains true to the GARCH paradigm of ARMA dynamics for squared innovations but weakens the GARCH structure in order to obtain required robustness properties with respect to various kinds of aggregation. It is shown that the lack of robustness of the usual GARCH setting is due to two very restrictive assumptions : perfect linear correlation between squared innovations and conditional variance on the one hand and linear relationship between the conditional variance of the future conditional variance and the squared conditional variance on the other hand. By relaxing these assumptions, thanks to a state-space setting, we obtain aggregation results without renouncing to the conditional variance concept (and related leverage effects), as it is the case for the recently suggested weak GARCH model which gets aggregation results by replacing conditional expectations by linear projections on symmetric past innovations. Moreover, unlike the weak GARCH literature, we are able to define multivariate models, including higher order dynamics and risk premiums (in the spirit of GARCH (p,p) and GARCH in mean) and to derive conditional moment restrictions well suited for statistical inference. Finally, we are able to characterize the exact relationships between our SR-SARV models (including higher order dynamics, leverage effect and in-mean effect), usual GARCH models and continuous time stochastic volatility models, so that previous results about aggregation of weak GARCH and continuous time GARCH modeling can be recovered in our framework.

The Shape of the Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric Garch Model.

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P 500 index return and its conditional variance. We use the SMEGARCH - Semiparametric-Mean EGARCH - model in which the conditional variance process is EGARCH while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For monthly S&P 500 excess returns, the relationship between the two moments that we uncover is nonlinear and nonmonotonic. Moreover, we find considerable persistence in the conditional variance as well as a leverage effect, as documented by others. Moreover, the shape of these relationships seems to be relatively stable over time.

Families of orthogonal functions defined by the Weyl groups of compact Lie groups

Plusieurs familles de fonctions spéciales de plusieurs variables, appelées fonctions d'orbites, sont définies dans le contexte des groupes de Weyl de groupes de Lie simples compacts/d'algèbres de Lie simples. Ces fonctions sont étudiées depuis près d'un siècle en raison de leur lien avec les caractères des représentations irréductibles des algèbres de Lie simples, mais également de par leurs symétries et orthogonalités. Nous sommes principalement intéressés par la description des relations d'orthogonalité discrète et des transformations discrètes correspondantes, transformations qui permettent l'utilisation des fonctions d'orbites dans le traitement de données multidimensionnelles. Cette description est donnée pour les groupes de Weyl dont les racines ont deux longueurs différentes, en particulier pour les groupes de rang $2$ dans le cas des fonctions d'orbites du type $E$ et pour les groupes de rang $3$ dans le cas de toutes les autres fonctions d'orbites.

Estimation du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes et son utilité pour quantifier le risque de modèle dans les applications financières en actuariat

Le modèle GARCH à changement de régimes est le fondement de cette thèse. Ce modèle offre de riches dynamiques pour modéliser les données financières en combinant une structure GARCH avec des paramètres qui varient dans le temps. Cette flexibilité donne malheureusement lieu à un problème de path dependence, qui a empêché l'estimation du modèle par le maximum de vraisemblance depuis son introduction, il y a déjà près de 20 ans. La première moitié de cette thèse procure une solution à ce problème en développant deux méthodologies permettant de calculer l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes. La première technique d'estimation proposée est basée sur l'algorithme Monte Carlo EM et sur l'échantillonnage préférentiel, tandis que la deuxième consiste en la généralisation des approximations du modèle introduites dans les deux dernières décennies, connues sous le nom de collapsing procedures. Cette généralisation permet d'établir un lien méthodologique entre ces approximations et le filtre particulaire. La découverte de cette relation est importante, car elle permet de justifier la validité de l'approche dite par collapsing pour estimer le modèle GARCH à changement de régimes. La deuxième moitié de cette thèse tire sa motivation de la crise financière de la fin des années 2000 pendant laquelle une mauvaise évaluation des risques au sein de plusieurs compagnies financières a entraîné de nombreux échecs institutionnels. À l'aide d'un large éventail de 78 modèles économétriques, dont plusieurs généralisations du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes, il est démontré que le risque de modèle joue un rôle très important dans l'évaluation et la gestion du risque d'investissement à long terme dans le cadre des fonds distincts. Bien que la littérature financière a dévoué beaucoup de recherche pour faire progresser les modèles économétriques dans le but d'améliorer la tarification et la couverture des produits financiers, les approches permettant de mesurer l'efficacité d'une stratégie de couverture dynamique ont peu évolué. Cette thèse offre une contribution méthodologique dans ce domaine en proposant un cadre statistique, basé sur la régression, permettant de mieux mesurer cette efficacité.

Computationally Efficient Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Returns and Volatilities in ARCH and GARCH Processes

We propose a novel, simple, efficient and distribution-free re-sampling technique for developing prediction intervals for returns and volatilities following ARCH/GARCH models. In particular, our key idea is to employ a Box–Jenkins linear representation of an ARCH/GARCH equation and then to adapt a sieve bootstrap procedure to the nonlinear GARCH framework. Our simulation studies indicate that the new re-sampling method provides sharp and well calibrated prediction intervals for both returns and volatilities while reducing computational costs by up to 100 times, compared to other available re-sampling techniques for ARCH/GARCH models. The proposed procedure is illustrated by an application to Yen/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data.

A generic polynomial solution for the differential equation of hypergeometric type and six sequences of orthogonal polynomials related to it

In this work, we present a generic formula for the polynomial solution families of the well-known differential equation of hypergeometric type s(x)y"n(x) + t(x)y'n(x) - lnyn(x) = 0 and show that all the three classical orthogonal polynomial families as well as three finite orthogonal polynomial families, extracted from this equation, can be identified as special cases of this derived polynomial sequence. Some general properties of this sequence are also given.

Orthogonal polynomials and recurrence equations, operator equations and factorization

This article surveys the classical orthogonal polynomial systems of the Hahn class, which are solutions of second-order differential, difference or q-difference equations. Orthogonal families satisfy three-term recurrence equations. Example applications of an algorithm to determine whether a three-term recurrence equation has solutions in the Hahn class - implemented in the computer algebra system Maple - are given. Modifications of these families, in particular associated orthogonal systems, satisfy fourth-order operator equations. A factorization of these equations leads to a solution basis.

A generic formula for the values at the boundary points of monic classical orthogonal polynomials

In a previous paper we have determined a generic formula for the polynomial solution families of the well-known differential equation of hypergeometric type σ(x)y"n(x)+τ(x)y'n(x)-λnyn(x)=0. In this paper, we give another such formula which enables us to present a generic formula for the values of monic classical orthogonal polynomials at their boundary points of definition.