997 resultados para Organizational forecasting


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The study of organizations goes to the roots of social science. Abundant theory provides the basis for explanations of diverse aspects of organizational structure and process. As a subset of organizations, nonprofit organizations can be studied with many of the same theoretical approaches used for studying other organizations. Still, nonprofit organizations have some special characteristics, such as a multiplicity of stakeholders and the use of volunteers; some theories of organizations can therefore be expected to be especially useful for studying nonprofit organizations and some other theories not to be very useful. In general, our approach is to apply relevant organizational theory to nonprofit organizations. As such, this essay is not a typical review of literature about nonprofit organizations. Instead, the purpose is to equip the reader with conceptual and theoretical tools for understanding nonprofits as organizations.

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At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

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Research investigating the transactional approach to the work stressor-employee adjustment relationship has described many negative main effects between perceived stressors in the workplace and employee outcomes. A considerable amount of literature, theoretical and empirical, also describes potential moderators of this relationship. Organizational identification has been established as a significant predictor of employee job-related attitudes. To date, research has neglected investigation of the potential moderating effect of organizational identification in the work stressor-employee adjustment relationship. On the basis of identity, subjective fit and sense of belonging literature it was predicted that higher perceptions of identification at multiple levels of the organization would mitigate the negative effect of work stressors on employee adjustment. It was expected, further, that more proximal, lower order identifications would be more prevalent and potent as buffers of stressors on strain. Predictions were tested with an employee sample from five organizations (N = 267). Hierarchical moderated multiple regression analyses revealed some support for the stress-buffering effects of identification in the prediction of job satisfaction and organizational commitment, particularly for more proximal (i.e., work unit) identification. These positive stress-buffering effects, however, were present for low identifiers in some situations. The present study represents an extension of the application of organizational identity theory by identifying the effects of organizational and workgroup identification on employee outcomes in the nonprofit context. Our findings will contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics in nonprofit organizations and therefore contribute to the development of strategy and interventions to deal with identity-based issues in nonprofits.

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The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

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The economic environment of today can be characterized as highly dynamic and competitive if not being in a constant flux. Globalization and the Information Technology (IT) revolution are perhaps the main contributing factors to this observation. While companies have to some extent adapted to the current business environment, new pressures such as the recent increase in environmental awareness and its likely effects on regulations are underway. Hence, in the light of market and competitive pressures, companies must constantly evaluate and if necessary update their strategies to sustain and increase the value they create for shareholders (Hunt and Morgan, 1995; Christopher and Towill, 2002). One way to create greater value is to become more efficient in producing and delivering goods and services to customers, which can lead to a strategy known as cost leadership (Porter, 1980). Even though Porter (1996) notes that in the long run cost leadership may not be a sufficient strategy for competitive advantage, operational efficiency is certainly necessary and should therefore be on the agenda of every company. ----- ----- ----- Better workflow management, technology, and resource utilization can lead to greater internal operational efficiency, which explains why, for example, many companies have recently adopted Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems: integrated softwares that streamline business processes. However, as today more and more companies are approaching internal operational excellence, the focus for finding inefficiencies and cost saving opportunities is moving beyond the boundaries of the firm. Today many firms in the supply chain are engaging in collaborative relationships with customers, suppliers, and third parties (services) in an attempt to cut down on costs related to for example, inventory, production, as well as to facilitate synergies. Thus, recent years have witnessed fluidity and blurring regarding organizational boundaries (Coad and Cullen, 2006). ----- ----- ----- The Information Technology (IT) revolution of the late 1990’s has played an important role in bringing organizations closer together. In their efforts to become more efficient, companies first integrated their information systems to speed up transactions such as ordering and billing. Later collaboration on a multidimensional scale including logistics, production, and Research & Development became evident as companies expected substantial benefits from collaboration. However, one could also argue that the recent popularity of the concepts falling under Supply Chain Management (SCM) such as Vendor Managed Inventory, Collaborative Planning, Replenishment, and Forecasting owe to the marketing efforts of software vendors and consultants who provide these solutions. Nevertheless, reports from professional organizations as well as academia indicate that the trend towards interorganizational collaboration is gaining wider ground. For example, the ARC Advisory Group, a research organization on supply chain solutions, estimated that the market for SCM, which includes various kinds of collaboration tools and related services, is going to grow at an annual rate of 7.4% during the years 2004-2008, reaching to $7.4 billion in 2008 (Engineeringtalk 2004).

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This study explores organizational capability and culture change through a project developing an assurance of learning program in a business school. In order to compete internationally for high quality faculty, students, strategic partnerships and research collaborations it is essential for Universities to develop and maintain an international focus and a quality produce that predicts excellence in the student experience and graduate outcomes that meet industry needs. Developing, marketing and delivering that quality product requires an organizational strategy to which all members of the organization contribute and adhere. Now, the ability to acquire, share and utilize knowledge has become a critical organizational capability in academia as well as other industries. Traditionally the functional approach to business school structures and disparate nature of the social networks and work contact limit the sharing of knowledge between academics working in different disciplines. In this project a community of practice program was established to include academics in the development of an embedded assurance of learning program affecting more than 5000 undergraduate students and 250 academics from nine different disciplines across four schools. The primary outcome from the fully developed and implemented assurance of learning program was the five year accreditation of the business schools programs by two international accrediting bodies, EQUIS and AACSB. However this study explores a different outcome, namely the change in organizational culture and individual capabilities as academics worked together in teaching and learning teams. This study uses a survey and interviews with academics involved, through a retrospective panel design which contained an experimental group and a control group. Results offer insights into communities of practice as a means of addressing organizational capability and changes in organizational culture. Knowledge management and shared learning can achieve strategic and operational benefits equally within academia as within other industrial enterprises but it comes at a cost. Traditional structures, academics that act like individual contractors and deep divides across research, teaching and service interest served a different master and required fewer resources. Collaborative structures; fewer master categories of discrete knowledge areas; specific strategic goals; greater links between academics and industry; and the means to share learned insights will require a different approach to resourcing both the individual and the team.

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There has recently been noted a rapid increase in research attention to projects that involve outside partners. Our knowledge of such inter-organizational projects, however, is limited. This paper reports large scale data from a repeated trend survey amongst 2000 SMEs in 2006 and 2009 that focused on inter-organizational project ventures. Our major findings indicate that the overall prevalence of inter-organizational project ventures remained significant and stable over time, even despite the economic crisis. Moreover, we find that these ventures predominantly solve repetitive rather than unique tasks and are embedded in prior relations between the partnering organizations. These findings provide empirical support for the recent claims that project management should pay more attention to inter-organizational forms of project organization, and suggest that the archetypical view of projects as being unique in every respect should be reconsidered. Both have important implications for project management, especially in the area of project-based learning.

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Boundaries are an important field of study because they mediate almost every aspect of organizational life. They are becoming increasingly more important as organizations change more frequently and yet, despite the endemic use of the boundary metaphor in common organizational parlance, they are poorly understood. Organizational boundaries are under-theorized and researchers in related fields often simply assume their existence, without defining them. The literature on organizational boundaries is fragmented with no unifying theoretical basis. As a result, when it is recognized that an organizational boundary is "dysfunctional". there is little recourse to models on which to base remediating action. This research sets out to develop just such a theoretical model and is guided by the general question: "What is the nature of organizational boundaries?" It is argued that organizational boundaries can be conceptualised through elements of both social structure and of social process. Elements of structure include objects, coupling, properties and identity. Social processes include objectification, identification, interaction and emergence. All of these elements are integrated by a core category, or basic social process, called boundary weaving. An organizational boundary is a complex system of objects and emergent properties that are woven together by people as they interact together, objectifying the world around them, identifying with these objects and creating couplings of varying strength and polarity as well as their own fragmented identity. Organizational boundaries are characterised by the multiplicity of interconnections, a particular domain of objects, varying levels of embodiment and patterns of interaction. The theory developed in this research emerged from an exploratory, qualitative research design employing grounded theory methodology. The field data was collected from the training headquarters of the New Zealand Army using semi-structured interviews and follow up observations. The unit of analysis is an organizational boundary. Only one research context was used because of the richness and multiplicity of organizational boundaries that were present. The model arose, grounded in the data collected, through a process of theoretical memoing and constant comparative analysis. Academic literature was used as a source of data to aid theory development and the saturation of some central categories. The final theory is classified as middle range, being substantive rather than formal, and is generalizable across medium to large organizations in low-context societies. The main limitation of the research arose from the breadth of the research with multiple lines of inquiry spanning several academic disciplines, with some relevant areas such as the role of identity and complexity being addressed at a necessarily high level. The organizational boundary theory developed by this research replaces the typology approaches, typical of previous theory on organizational boundaries and reconceptualises the nature of groups in organizations as well as the role of "boundary spanners". It also has implications for any theory that relies on the concept of boundaries, such as general systems theory. The main contribution of this research is the development of a holistic model of organizational boundaries including an explanation of the multiplicity of boundaries . no organization has a single definable boundary. A significant aspect of this contribution is the integration of aspects of complexity theory and identity theory to explain the emergence of higher-order properties of organizational boundaries and of organizational identity. The core category of "boundary weaving". is a powerful new metaphor that significantly reconceptualises the way organizational boundaries may be understood in organizations. It invokes secondary metaphors such as the weaving of an organization's "boundary fabric". and provides managers with other metaphorical perspectives, such as the management of boundary friction, boundary tension, boundary permeability and boundary stability. Opportunities for future research reside in formalising and testing the theory as well as developing analytical tools that would enable managers in organizations to apply the theory in practice.

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The present study aims to validate the current best-practice model of implementation effectiveness in small and mid-size businesses. Data from 135 organizations largely confirm the original model across various types of innovation. In addition, we extended this work by highlighting the importance of human resources in implementation effectiveness and the consequences of innovation effectiveness on future adoption attitudes. We found that the availability of skilled employees was positively related to implementation effectiveness. Furthermore, organizations that perceived a high level of benefits from implemented innovations were likely to have a positive attitude towards future innovation adoption. The implications of our improvements to the original model of implementation effectiveness are discussed.

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This study examined if organizational identification can account for the mechanisms by which two-change management practices (communication and participation) influence employees’ intentions to support change. The context was a sample of 82 hotel employees in the early stages of a re-brand. Identification with the new hotel fully mediated the relationship between communication and adaptive and proactive intentions to support change, as well as between participation and proactive intentions.