Gestão estratégica de riscos de um ativo de produção de petróleo: uma abordagem quantitativa

O objetivo dessa dissertação é estabelecer um modelo quantitativo de gestão de riscos estratégicos de um ativo de produção de petróleo, notadamente o valor em risco do seu fluxo de caixa e de sua rentabilidade. Para tanto, foi utilizado um modelo de fluxo de caixa onde a receita operacional foi definida como variável estocástica. A receita operacional foi estimada a partir de uma função de perdas que descreve o volume de produção de petróleo, e de uma trajetória de preços definida por um modelo geométrico browniano sem reversão a média e com volatilidade descrita por um processo GARCH. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que o modelo proposto é capaz de fornecer informações importantes para a gestão de riscos de ativos de produção de petróleo ao passo que permite a quantificação de diferentes fatores de risco que afetam a rentabilidade das operações. Por fim, o modelo aqui proposto pode ser estendido para a avaliação do risco financeiro e operacional de um conjunto de ativos de petróleo, considerando sua estrutura de dependência e a existência de restrições de recursos financeiros, físicos e humanos.

A new analytical approach for the detection of palm oil in vegetable oil blends

The new Food Information Regulation (1169/2011), dictates that in a refined vegetable oil blend, the type of oil must be clearly identified in the package in contract with current practice where is labelled under the generic and often misleading term “vegetable oil”. With increase consumer awareness in food authenticity, as shown in the recent food scandal with horsemeat in beef products, the identification of the origin of species in food products becomes increasingly relevant. Palm oil is used extensively in food manufacturing and as global demand increases, producing countries suffer from the aftermath of intensive agriculture. Even if only a small portion of global production, sustainable palm oil comes in great demand from consumers and industry. It is therefore of interest to detect the presence of palm oil in food products as consumers have the right to know if it is present in the product or not, mainly from an ethical point of view. Apart from palm oil and its derivatives, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil are also included. With DNA-based methods, the gold standard for the detection of food authenticity and species recognition deemed not suitable in this analytical problem, the focus is inevitably drawn to the chromatographic and spectroscopic methods. Both chromatographic (such as GC-FID and LC-MS) and spectroscopic methods (FT-IR, Raman, NIR) are relevant. Previous attempts have not shown promising results due to oils’ natural variation in composition and complex chemical signals but the suggested two-step analytical procedure is a promising approach with very good initial results.

Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries

This paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003. The study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test with one structural break. The results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity. The findings from the LM panel unit root test with a structural break, however, are conclusive, suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional-based panels, crude oil and NGL production are jointly stationary.

NUTRITIONAL BALANCE, ESSENTIAL OIL AND WOOD PRODUCTION FROM Corymbia citriodora Hill & Johnson WITH SEWAGE SLUDGE AND MINERAL FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS

The Corymbia citriodora is one of the most important forest species in Brazil and the reason is the diversity of its use, because it produces good quality wood and the leaves may be used for essential oil production. Although, there are not many studies about species and the handling effect in the nutritional balance. This study aimed to evaluate the biomass production and nutrient balance in the conventional production of essential oil and wood of Corymbia citriodora with sewage sludge application. The experiment design established was the randomized blocks, with four replicates and two treatments: 1 - fertilization with 10 tons ha(-1) (dry mass) of sewage sludge, supplemented with K and B, and 2 - mineral fertilization. It was evaluated the aerial biomass production, the nutrient export of the leaves, the essential oil and wood production at four years old. The trees that received application of sewage sludge produced 20 % more leaves biomass than the trees with mineral fertilization, resulting in larger oil production. Besides, the trees with sewage sludge application produced 14.2 tons ha(-1) yr(-1) of woody biomass that was 27 % higher than the treatment with mineral fertilization. For both treatments the N balance was negative, but treatment with sewage sludge application (-45 kg ha(-1)) was four times lower than the observed on mineral fertilization treatment (-185 kg ha(-1)). It may be concluded in this paper that the application of sewage sludge benefits the production of leaves biomass, essential oil and wood, besides result better nutritional balance of the Corymbia citriodora production system.

Study for implementing a unit for production of powdered olive oil

This work aimed to make a study for the implementation of an industrial unit for production of olive oil powder. For obtaining this product, which is designed for the gourmet kitchen market, is used the maltodextrin, which allows obtaining the small spheres (micro-droplets) of olive oil. To fulfil the proposed objective, were evaluated all steps that constitute the production process, including the olive oil production and then the transformation into the final product, i.e., in the form of powder. In this way, it will allow establishing all the steps necessary for the final project, which involve: definition of premises and equipment, layout and also some brief considerations regarding the effluents and wastes generated.

Estimation of the production cost of fast pyrolysis bio-oil

A number of papers and reports covering the techno-economic analysis of bio-oil production has been published. These have had different scopes, use different feedstocks and reflected national cost structures. This paper reviews and compares their cost estimates and the experimental results that underpin them. A comprehensive cost and performance model was produced based on consensus data from the previous studies or stated scenarios where data is not available that reflected UK costs. The model takes account sales of bio-char that is a co-product of pyrolysis and the electricity consumption of the pyrolysis plant and biomass pre-processing plants. It was concluded that it should be able to produce bio-oil in the UK from energy crops for a similar cost as distillate fuel oil. It was also found that there was little difference in the processing cost for woodchips and baled miscanthus. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Investigation of lignin biosynthesis in sugarcane for improved lignocellulosic ethanol production

As oil use increases at a rate unsustainable for the environment and unmatchable by current levels of oil production, a major shift towards renewable energy is necessary. By expanding the current knowledge of lignin biosynthesis and its manipulation in sugarcane, this PhD contributes to the production of economically viable second generation bioethanol, a fuel produced from plant biomass. The findings of this thesis contribute to the limited knowledge of lignin biosynthesis and deposition in sugarcane, and the application of biotechnology to produce sugarcane, and the resulting bagasse, with a modified cell wall. Reducing or modifying the lignin content in the cell wall of bagasse can reduce production costs and increase yields of bioethanol. This makes bioethanol more economically competitive with oil as an alternative energy source. A move to using bioethanol over fossil based transport fuels will have global economic and environmental benefits.

A multi-criteria analysis approach for ranking and selection of microorganisms for the production of oils for biodiesel production

Oleaginous microorganisms have potential to be used to produce oils as alternative feedstock for biodiesel production. Microalgae (Chlorella protothecoides and Chlorella zofingiensis), yeasts (Cryptococcus albidus and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa), and fungi (Aspergillus oryzae and Mucor plumbeus) were investigated for their ability to produce oil from glucose, xylose and glycerol. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and preference ranking organization method for the enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) with graphical analysis for interactive aid (GAIA), was used to rank and select the preferred microorganisms for oil production for biodiesel application. This was based on a number of criteria viz., oil concentration, content, production rate and yield, substrate consumption rate, fatty acids composition, biomass harvesting and nutrient costs. PROMETHEE selected A. oryzae, M. plumbeus and R. mucilaginosa as the most prospective species for oil production. However, further analysis by GAIA Webs identified A. oryzae and M. plumbeus as the best performing microorganisms.

Numerical Simulation of Particle Separation in An Oil-Sand Separator

The gathering systems of crude oil are greatly endangered by the fine sand and soil in oil. Up to now , how to separate sand from the viscid oil is still a technical problem for oil production home or abroad. Recently , Institute of Mechanics in Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed a new type of oil-sand separator , which has been applied successfully in oil field in situ. In this paper, the numerical method of vortex-stream function is used to predict the liquid-solid separating course and the efficiency for this oil-sand separator. Results show that the viscosity and particle diameter have much influence on the particle motion. The calculating separating efficiency is compared with that of experiment and indicates that this method can be used to model the complex two-phase flow in the separator.

Lipid productivity and cell wall ultrastructure of six strains of Nannochloropsis: Implications for biofuel production and downstream processing

Microalgae are generating considerable interest for third generation biodiesel production. However, appropriate strain selection is proving challenging due to the significant variation in cellular physiology, metabolic potential and genetics observed even amongst strains deemed morphologically similar. Six strains of Nannochloropsis from the CCAP culture collection were assessed for their lipid productivity and cellular structure, as proxies for oil production and harvesting ease, to assess their suitability as biodiesel production platforms. Differences in growth rate and lipid accumulation across the strains were observed. Nannochloropsis oculata strain 849/7 showed significantly reduced doubling time compared to Nannochloropsis salina strain 849/3, whilst Nannochloropsis oceanica 849/10 produced the highest lipid content. In addition the six strains could be differentiated into 3 distinct classes based on their cell wall thickness, which varied across the strains from 63 to 119 nm and which is independent of both species and geographical isolation location. The importance of these variations in ultrastructure and physiology for biodiesel production is discussed.

The Alberta Dilemma: Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource by an Agricultural and an Oil Sector

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that have to share a limited water resource. We show that for any given water stock, if the oil stock is sufficiently large, it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive. This may mean having an initial phase during which the two sectors are active, then a phase during which the water is reserved for the oil sector and the agricultural sector is inactive, followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again. The agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted and the demand for water from the oil sector decreases. In the case where agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water once there is no more oil, we show that oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure Hotelling path, with the implicit price of oil net of extraction cost growing at the rate of interest. If the natural inflow of water does constitute a constraint for agriculture, then oil production never follows a pure Hotelling path, because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock, but also the positive opportunity cost of water.

Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an “environmentally friendly” fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (109) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.

Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ground-level ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an "environmentally friendly'' fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O-3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O-3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O-3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (10(9)) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.