Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Dye-sensitized solar cells based on perylene derivatives

The oil price rises more and more, and the world energy consumption is projected to expand by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030. Nowadays intensive research is focused on the development of alternative energies. Among them, there are dye-sensitized nanocrystalline solar cells (DSSCs) “the third generation solar cells”. The latter have gained attention during the last decade and are currently subject of intense research in the framework of renewable energies as a low-cost photovoltaic. At present DSSCs with ruthenium based dyes exhibit highest efficiencies (ca 11%). The objective of the present work is to fabricate, characterize and improve the performance of DSSCs based on metal free dyes as sensitizers, especially on perylene derivatives. The work begins by a general introduction to the photovoltaics and dye-sensitized solar cells, such as the operating principles and the characteristics of the DSSCs. Chapter 2 and 3 discuss the state of the art of sensitizers used in DSSCs, present the compounds used as sensitizer in the present work and illustrate practical issues of experimental techniques and device preparation. A comparative study of electrolyte-DSSCs based on P1, P4, P7, P8, P9, and P10 are presented in chapter 4. Experimental results show that the dye structure plays a crucial role in the performance of the devices. The dye based on the spiro-concept (bipolar spiro compound) exhibited a higher efficiency than the non-spiro compounds. The presence of tert-butylpyridine as additive in the electrolyte was found to increase the open circuit voltage and simultaneously decrease the efficiency. The presence of lithium ions in the electrolyte increases both output current and the efficiency. The sensitivity of the dye to cations contained in the electrolyte was investigated in the chapter 5. FT-IR and UV-Vis were used to investigate the in-situ coordination of the cation to the adsorbed dye in the working devices. The open-circuit voltage was found to depend on the number of coordination sites in the dye. P1 with most coordination sites has shown the lowest potential drop, opposite to P7, which is less sensitive to cations in the working cells. A strategy to improve the dye adsorption onto the TiO2 surface, and thus the light harvesting efficiency of the photoanode by UV treatment, is presented in chapter 6. The treatment of the TiO2 film with UV light generates hydroxyl groups and renders the TiO2 surface more and more hydrophilic. The treated TiO2 surface reacts readily with the acid anhydride group of the dye that acts as an anchoring group and improves the dye adsorption. The short-circuit current density and the efficiency of the electrolyte-based dye cells was considerably improved by the UV treatment of the TiO2 film. Solid-state dye-sensitized solar cells (SSDs) based on spiro-MeOTAD (used as hole transport material) are studied in chapter 7. The efficiency of SSDs was globally found to be lower than that of electrolyte-based solar cells. That was due to poor pore filling of the dye-loaded TiO2 film by the spin-coated spiro-MeOTAD and to the significantly slower charge transport in the spiro-MeOTAD compared to the electrolyte redox mediator. However, the presence of the donor moieties in P1 that are structurally similar to spiro-MeOTAD was found to improve the wettability of the P1-loaded TiO2 film. As a consequence the performance of the P1-based solid-state cells is better compared to the cells based on non-spiro compounds.

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

Geopolítica y petróleo. La nueva dependencia energética

Este artículo, sobre geopolítica y petróleo, busca analizar la actual geopolítica internacional en función de la variable petrolera. Con el alza del precio del crudo a casi US $150 el barril, el “oro negro” se ha convertido más que nunca en un instrumento de poder global. Por otra parte, la demanda cada vez más apremiante de petróleo, por China e India, está empujando no solamente el precio de los hidrocarburos, sino también la pugna por el control de los yacimientos a nivel mundial o por lo menos tener gobiernos aliados en el poder.Es dentro de esta lógica que China ha iniciado una ofensiva de penetración en el continente africano y es esto lo que explica el crecimiento espectacular del continente negro. Finalmente, el trabajo también demuestra que los datos catastróficos sobre un inminente agotamiento del petróleo no corresponden a la realidad. En 1987 se planteaba la existencia de petróleo por 40 años. Hoy tenemos más petróleo que hace 20 años.-----This article about geopolitics and oil seeks to analyze the current international geopolitics in function of the oil variable. With the rise of the crude oil price up to almost 150 US dollars per barrel, the “black gold” has become an instrument for global power more than ever before. Furthermore, the increasingly urging demand for oil by China and India is pushing not only the hydrocarbon price but also the struggle for controlling the oil reservoirs around the world or at least having allied governments in power.Thus, under this logic, China has started an offensive to penetrate the African continent and this explains the amazing growth of the black continent. Last, this paper also shows that the catastrophic data on an impending shortage of the oil does not correspond with reality. In 1987, oil existence was forecasted for 40 years. Today, we have more oil than 20 years ago. 

Valoración de opciones bajo el modelo de Kou aplicando transformada de Fourier

En esta Tesis se presenta el modelo de Kou, Difusión con saltos doble exponenciales, para la valoración de opciones Call de tipo europeo sobre los precios del petróleo como activo subyacente. Se mostrarán los cálculos numéricos para la formulación de expresiones analíticas que se resolverán mediante la implementación de algoritmos numéricos eficientes que conllevaran a los precios teóricos de las opciones evaluadas. Posteriormente se discutirán las ventajas de usar métodos como la transformada de Fourier por la sencillez relativa de su programación frente a los desarrollos de otras técnicas numéricas. Este método es usado en conjunto con el ejercicio de calibración no paramétrica de regularización, que mediante la minimización de los errores al cuadrado sujeto a una penalización fundamentada en el concepto de entropía relativa, resultaran en la obtención de precios para las opciones Call sobre el petróleo considerando una mejor capacidad del modelo de asignar precios justos frente a los transados en el mercado.

Docagem ou afretamento de UMS: a escolha ótima para a extensão da vida útil das plataformas de petróleo de campos marítimos maduros sob o enfoque das opções reais

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a utilização do arcabouço teórico das opções reais e a posterior aplicação do modelo binomial na avaliação de projetos relacionados à exploração e produção de petróleo, tendo em vista a flexibilidade gerencial, os riscos e as incertezas técnicas e de mercado que norteiam o setor petrolífero upstream. Ademais, a aplicação do modelo proposto capta o papel crucial da volatilidade do preço do petróleo na avaliação da decisão de investimento e revela a existência dos custos irrecuperáveis extremos decorrentes do ativo real, neste caso, a unidade marítima de petróleo. Assim, com o intuito de prolongar o ciclo de produção de unidade marítima de petróleo com características preestabelecidas, propõe-se a avaliação econômica de duas alternativas tecnológicas para a extensão de vida útil da plataforma marítima objeto de estudo, sendo estas alternativas tratadas como opções de expansão. As alternativas propostas são duas: o afretamento da UMS (Unidade de Manutenção e Segurança) acoplada à plataforma e a docagem da plataforma a partir da desmobilização, isto é, o descomissionamento, e envio da plataforma ao estaleiro. Na aplicação da primeira opção, a UMS se configura em uma embarcação equipada com toda a estrutura necessária para a realização de serviço de manutenção e revitalização, sem que ocorra interrupção da produção de petróleo. Por outro lado, a opção de descomissionamento é desprovida de receita até o retorno da plataforma do estaleiro. No que tange à metodologia do presente trabalho, o modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro é aplicado considerando a receita proveniente da produção de petróleo de uma plataforma marítima com sistema de produção flutuante com 14 poços, sendo 10 produtores e 4 injetores e sustentada por 8 linhas de ancoragem. Também é definida a volatilidade do projeto como sendo a volatilidade do preço do petróleo. Por fim, as opções de expansão podem ser exercidas a qualquer momento antes da data de expiração das opções, data esta coincidente para ambas as opções e referente ao término de contrato de afretamento da UMS, que corresponde ao período de cinco anos. Neste período de cinco anos, as duas alternativas são exercidas a partir do primeiro ano, com receitas e custos distintos em virtude das especificidades decorrentes das alternativas tecnológicas propostas. A partir da aplicação do modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro sob o enfoque das opções reais, as duas alternativas tecnológicas são tratadas como opções americanas na avaliação econômica da revitalização e manutenção da plataforma marítima. Também realiza-se a análise tradicional do VPL para as duas alternativas. As duas análises apontam para a escolha da UMS como alternativa ótima de expansão da vida útil da plataforma. Ademais, a análise sob o enfoque das opções reais capta um valor adicional em ambas as alternativas tecnológicas, fruto das características inerentes à indústria petrolífera. Quanto à estrutura do trabalho em questão se divide em cinco capítulos: introdução, referencial teórico, metodologia, apresentação dos resultados e as considerações finais.

Simulador de dano à formação, aplicado ao Projeto e à execução da perfuração de poços de petróleo

With the high oil price variability, the petroleum and the reservoir engineers are usually face to face on how they can evaluate the well performance and productivity. They can improve high productivity from the well construction to the secondary recoveries, but they have never tried a measurement in the drilling operations about the lower productivity index. As a rule, frequently the drilling operations hear from the reservoir engineering and geology that, if there is a formation damage, probably some drilling operations practices were not done properly or the good practice in petroleum engineering or mud engineering were not observed. The study in this working search is an attempt of how to measure a formation damage just from the project drilling to the drilling operations, with datum from the fields in Brazilian northeast and putting into practice a Simulator developed from the modeling on the theory offered by different experts and sources in formation damage

República Dominicana: evolución económica durante 2006 y perspectivas para 2007

Incluye Bibliografía

An assessment of fiscal and regulatory barriers to deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao

The current energy systems within Curaçao depend primarily on high cost, imported fossil fuels, and typically constitute power sectors that are characterized by small, inefficient generation plants which result in high energy prices. As a consequence of its dependence on external fuel supplies, Curaçao is extremely vulnerable to international oil price shocks, which can impact on economic planning and foreign direct investment within their industrial sectors. The ability of the successive governments to source capital for economic stimulation and social investment is therefore significantly challenging. Additionally, there is over-dependence on two of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, namely the tourism and fisheries sectors, but the vulnerabilities of the country to the effects of climate change make adaptation difficult and costly. It is within this context that this report focuses on identification of the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao with a view of making recommendations for removal of these barriers. Consultations with key Government officials, the private sector as well as civil society were conducted to obtain information and data on the energy sector in the country. Desktop research was also conducted to supplement the information gathered from the consultations. The major result of the assessment is that Curaçao is at an early stage in the definition of its energy sector. Despite some infrastructural legacies of the pre-independence era, as well as a number of recent developments including the modernization and expansion of its windfarms and completion of a modern Electricity Policy, there are still a number of important institutional and policy gaps within the energy sector in Curaçao. The most significant deficiency is the absence of a ministry or Government agency with portfolio responsibility for the energy sector as a whole; this has: limited the degree to which the activities of energy sector stakeholders are coordinated and retarded the development and implementation of a comprehensive national energy policy. The absence of an energy policy, which provides the framework for energy planning, increases investor risk. Also, the lack of political continuity that has emanated from the frequent changes in Government administrations is a concern among stakeholders and has served to reduce investor confidence in particular, and market confidence in general.

Efeito da adição de butanol na biodegradabilidade da gasolina e do óleo diesel

The increase in the oil price and the current trend of using renewable raw materials for the production of chemicals renew the interest in the production of biobutanol that, produced by fermentation of agricultural raw materials, can be used as a component of gasoline and diesel. With the commercialization of new fuels, environmental damages due to spills can occur. Among other techniques, the clean-up of these contaminated areas can be achieved with bioremediation, a technique based on the action of microorganisms, which has the advantage of turning hazardous contaminants into non toxic substances such as CO2, water and biomass. Thus, bearing in mind the use of biobutanol in the near future as a gasoline extender and due to the lack of knowledge of the effects of butanol on the biodegradation of gasoline, this work aimed to assess the aerobic biodegradation of butanol/gasoline blends and butanol/diesel (20% v/v), being the latter compared to the ethanol/gasoline blend and biodiesel/diesel (20% v/v), respectively. Two experimental techniques were employed, namely the respirometric method and the redox indicator 2,6-dichlorophenol indophenol (DCPIP) test. In the former, experiments simulating the contamination of natural environments were carried out in biometer flasks, used to measure the microbial CO2 production. The DCPIP test assessed the capability of four inocula to biodegrade the fuel blends. In butanol/gasoline experiments the addition of the alcohols to the gasoline resulted in positive synergic effects on the biodegradation of the fuels in soil and...(Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Regolazione della pompa elettrica del carburante a bassa pressione: Analisi dell'impatto sul consumo specifico di un motore a combustione interna

The trend of CO2 emission limit and fuel saving due to the oil price increase and are important drivers for engines development. The engine auxiliary devices electrification (g.e fuel pump) is a way to reduce the energy consumption, because it becomes possible to control them depending on engine operation point, this kid of management can be applied to the electric low-pressure pump. Usually the fuel delivery is performed at the maximum flow rate and a pressure regulator discharges the exceeding fuel amount inside the rail (gasoline engine) or upstream of the high pressure pump (common rail diesel engine). In this work it has been investigated the fuel saving achievable through a proper control of the electric fuel pump on a small common rail diesel engine, and a control architecture is proposed. The aim was to maximize the fuel economy without any impact on pressure control in the engine transient conditions. L'andamento del limite di emissioni di CO2 e il risparmio di carburante dovuto all'aumento del prezzo del petrolio sono fattori importanti per lo sviluppo dei motori. I dispositivi ausiliari, come la pompa del carburante, sono un modo per ridurre il consumo energetico, in quanto diventa possibile controllarli a seconda del punto di funzionamento del motore, questo tipo di gestione può essere applicato alla pompa elettrica a bassa pressione. Solitamente la portata del combustibile viene eseguita alla portata massima e un regolatore di pressione si scarica la quantità eccedente di carburante all'interno del rail (motore a benzina) o a monte della pompa a alta pressione (common rail motore diesel). In questo lavoro è stato studiato il risparmio di combustibile ottenibile attraverso un adeguato controllo della pompa elettrica del carburante su un piccolo motore diesel common rail e viene proposta una architettura di controllo. Lo scopo è quello di massimizzare il risparmio di carburante, senza alcun impatto sul controllo della pressione nelle condizioni transitorie del motore.

Das Thema „Energie“ in der wissenschaftlichen Zukunftsforschung

Der Umbau der durch den Einsatz fossiler Energieträger dominierten Energiesysteme steht weit oben auf der politischen Agenda. Angesichts des fortschreitenden Klimawandels, der Ressourcenverknappung und des ökonomischen Aufholens der Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer wird diese Frage immer dringlicher. Zahlreiche politische, gesellschaftliche, ökonomische und ökologische Herausforderungen sind mit diesem Umbau verbunden. Angesichts der Langlebigkeit der heute gebauten Infrastrukturen ergibt sich hieraus ein zentrales Feld für die wissenschaftliche Zukunftsforschung. Der Einsatz von Energieszenarios ist über Jahre erprobt und trotz zahlreicher methodischer und inhaltlicher Unsicherheiten bei der Erarbeitung der Szenariostudien bleiben sie unersetzlich – sofern sie wissenschaftliche Standards hinsichtlich der Wertneutralität und Überprüfbarkeit erfüllen. Auch in der geographischen Forschung findet sich das Thema „Energie“ wieder verstärkt auf der Agenda. Bereits vor dem Hintergrund der Ölpreiskrisen in den 1970er-Jahren setzten sich Geographinnen und Geographen mit Energiethemen auseinander – angesichts des anstehenden Umbaus der Energiesysteme wird auch wieder die Frage aktuell, inwiefern sich die Transformation des Energiesystems und die Raumstruktur gegenseitig beeinflussen. Dabei werden nicht nur inhaltliche Fragen aufgeworfen, vielmehr ist auch zu klären, wie sich das Thema „Energie“ in die etablierten geographischen Forschungsdisziplinen von der Klimageographie über die Wirtschafts- und Bevölkerungsgeographie bis hin zur Siedlungsgeographie eingliedern lässt. Die Ausführungen im vorliegenden Artikel gehen noch einen Schritt weiter und werfen die Frage auf, inwiefern sich durch die Verbindung geographischer Forschung und Energiethemen auch ein neues methodisches Experimentierfeld auftut. Konkret wird aufgezeigt, dass die Geographie verstärkt den Blick in die Zukunft wagen und sich von der Analyse rezenter Strukturen lösen sollte. Die Frage der zukünftigen Raumstrukturen angesichts des Umbaus der Energiesysteme ist von zentraler Bedeutung, unter Anwendung von Methoden der wissenschaftlichen Zukunftsforschung muss die Geographie hier antworten liefern.

Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries

Several researchers have examined Lucas's misperceptions model as well as various propositions derived from it within a cross-section empirical framework. The cross-section approach imposes a single monetary policy regime for the entire period. Our paper innovates on existing tests of those rational expectations propositions by allowing the simultaneous effect of monetary and short run aggregate supply (oil price) shocks on output behavior and the employment of advanced panel econometric techniques. Our empirical findings, for a sample of 41 countries over 1949 to 1999, provide evidence in favor of the majority of rational expectations propositions.

Transformation of the Financial Sector in Indonesia

Introduction : The source and deployment of finance are central issues in economic development. Since 1966, when the Soeharto Administration was inaugurated, Indonesian economic development has relied on funds in the form of aid from international organizations and foreign countries. After the 1990s, a further abundant inflow of capital sustained a rapid economic development. Foreign funding was the basis of Indonesian economic growth. This paper will describe the mechanism for allocating funds in the Indonesian economy. It will identify the problems this mechanism generated in the Indonesian experience, and it will attempt to explain why there was a collapse of the financial system in the wake of the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997. History of the Indonesian Financial system The year 1966 saw the emergence of commercial banks in Indonesia. It can be said that before 1966 a financial system hardly existed, a fact commonly attributed to economic disruptions like the consecutive runs of fiscal deficit and hyperinflation under the Soekarno Administration. After 1996, with the inauguration of Soeharto, a regulatory system of financial legislation, e.g. central banking law and banking regulation, was introduced and implemented, and the banking sector that is the basis of the current financial system in Indonesia was built up. 　　　The Indonesian financial structure was significantly altered at the first financial reform of 1983. Between 1966 and 1982, the banking sector consisted of Bank Indonesia (the Central Bank) and the state-owned banks. There was also a system for distributing the abundant public revenue derived from the soaring oil price of the 1970s. The public finance distribution function, incorporated in Indonesian financial system, changed after the successive financial reforms of 1983 and 1988, when there was a move away from the monopoly-market style dominated by state-owned banks (which was a system of public finance distribution that operated at the discretion of the government) towards a modern market mechanism. The five phases of development The Indonesian financial system developed in five phases between 1966 and the present time. The first period (1966-72) was its formative period, the second (1973-82) its policy based finance period under soaring oil prices, the third (1983-91) its financial-reform period, the fourth (1992-97) its period of expansion, and the fifth (1998-) its period of financial restructuring. The first section of this paper summarizes the financial policies operative during each of the periods identified above. In the second section changes to the financial sector in response to policies are examined, and an analysis of these changes shows that an important development of the financial sector occurred during the financial reform period. In the third section the focus of analysis shifts from the general financial sector to particular commercial banks’ performances. In the third section changes in commercial banks’ lending and fund-raising behaviour after the 1990s are analysed by comparing several banking groups in terms of their ownership and foundation time. The last section summarizes the foregoing analyses and examines the problems that remain in the Indonesian financial sector, which is still undergoing restructuring.

Análise do impacto das políticas de intervenção no setor do agronegócio sobre a cadeia de carne bovina na Venezuela

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o desempenho da cadeia de carne bovina na Venezuela sob o efeito de políticas de intervenção estatal principalmente nas últimas décadas. Para tanto, foi empregada a abordagem teórica do enfoque sistêmico em conjunto com metodologia que se apoiou em um modelo econométrico para explicar o efeito de variáveis tecnológicas e macroeconômicas no agronegócio vis a vis a resultante da produção doméstica de carne bovina nas últimas décadas. Os resultados mostram que, no marco de mudanças institucionais estabelecidas desde a década de 1980 e especialmente as intervenções governamentais vigentes a partir do ano de 2003, a cadeia de carne bovina da Venezuela apresenta um desempenho negocial preocupante e não sustentável. Na última década, a Venezuela decresceu seu inventário bovino a uma taxa média anual de 2,56% entre 2003 e 2014. O número de cabeças/habitante diminuiu a uma taxa anual de 1,30% entre 1960 e 2014, ficando em 0,38 cabeças/habitante. O número de cabeças abatidas sobre o total do rebanho (taxa de desfrute geral do rebanho) foi de 10,82% para o ano de 2014, inferior à média de países vizinhos como Colômbia e Brasil que ficaram em 20,85% e 19,42% respectivamente. A produção doméstica de carne bovina decresceu a uma taxa anual de 2,22% entre 1997 e 2014 (mesmo considerando o abate de bovinos importados). A quantidade de carne oriunda de animais importados cresceu até alcançar um máximo de 58,51% do abate nacional, em 2013. Isto significou um decréscimo real da produção endógena de 71,55% entre os anos de 1997 e 2013. Neste contexto, a produção nacional percapita diminuiu de 18,31 kg/habitante (em 1997) para um mínimo de 3,97 kg/habitante (em 2013). Para o atendimento da demanda doméstica passou-se a contar, crescentemente, com importações de carne in natura que cresceram em volume inicial de 0,59 mil toneladas (t) de equivalente carcaça (em 1997) para um máximo de 307,57 mil t em 2008. A taxa de penetração das importações de carne bovina equivalente (carne e bovinos em pé) resultou em 79,54% do atendimento da demanda doméstica em 2013 (cerca de 15,45 kg/habitante/ano). Neste contexto, as intervenções mais relevantes têm sido a Lei de Terras que propiciou um ambiente de insegurança jurídica; os controles de preços e a política cambial que criaram distorções no mercado; e, a crescente influência nas redes de distribuição de alimentos, com forte dependência do comércio exterior, alavancado com os incrementos no preço internacional do petróleo entre 2003 e 2014. Tudo isto tem resultado em um cenário de desmonte da produção interna da carne bovina, que pode ser visualizado em episódios crescentes de escassez deste produto no mercado interno. Ao final, são sugeridas algumas práticas de políticas pública e setoriais para a reversão desse quadro insustentável para esta importante cadeia de negócios da Venezuela.