Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Molecular model for the binary complex of uropepsin and pepstatin

The three-dimensional structure of human uropepsin complexed with pepstatin has been modelled using human pepsin as a template. Uropepsin is an aspartic proteinase from the urine, produced in the form of pepsinogen A in the gastric mucosa. The structure is bilobal, consisting of two predominantly beta -sheet lobes which, as observed in other aspartic proteinases, are related by a pseudo twofold axis. A structural comparison between binary complexes of pepsin:pepstatin and uropepsin:pepstatin is discussed. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Model categories

The purpose of this thesis is to present some fundamental results about model categories, and to give some examples of categories that can be equipped with a model structure.

Development of a novel material flow simulation model for the integration of spatial and process relevant information

Simulation techniques are almost indispensable in the analysis of complex systems. Materials- and related information flow processes in logistics often possess such complexity. Further problem arise as the processes change over time and pose a Big Data problem as well. To cope with these issues adaptive simulations are more and more frequently used. This paper presents a few relevant advanced simulation models and intro-duces a novel model structure, which unifies modelling of geometrical relations and time processes. This way the process structure and their geometric relations can be handled in a well understandable and transparent way. Capabilities and applicability of the model is also presented via a demonstrational example.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

The Hamburg-Model of Integrated Care for Patients with Psychosis: Part 1

Objective: The "Hamburg model" designates an integrated care model for severely ill patients with psychotic disorders financed by the health insurance system in accordance with § 140 SGB V.Methods: It comprises comprehensive and long-term treatment within a regional network of the psychosis center of the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE) and private psychiatrists. The treatment model consists of therapeutic assertive community treatment (ACT) provided by a highly specialized treatment team and need-adapted in- and outpatient care.Results and conclusions: The present article summarizes the disease- and treatment-specific rationales for the model development as well as the model structure and treatment contents. The article further summarizes the effectiveness and efficiency results of a study comparing the Hamburg model and treatment as usual (without ACT) within a 12-month follow-up study (ACCESS trial).

Application of backend database contents and structure to the design of spoken dialog services

Current development platforms for designing spoken dialog services feature different kinds of strategies to help designers build, test, and deploy their applications. In general, these platforms are made up of several assistants that handle the different design stages (e.g. definition of the dialog flow, prompt and grammar definition, database connection, or to debug and test the running of the application). In spite of all the advances in this area, in general the process of designing spoken-based dialog services is a time consuming task that needs to be accelerated. In this paper we describe a complete development platform that reduces the design time by using different types of acceleration strategies based on using information from the data model structure and database contents, as well as cumulative information obtained throughout the successive steps in the design. Thanks to these accelerations, the interaction with the platform is simplified and the design is reduced, in most cases, to simple confirmations to the “proposals” that the platform automatically provides at each stage. Different kinds of proposals are available to complete the application flow such as the possibility of selecting which information slots should be requested to the user together, predefined templates for common dialogs, the most probable actions that make up each state defined in the flow, different solutions to solve specific speech-modality problems such as the presentation of the lists of retrieved results after querying the backend database. The platform also includes accelerations for creating speech grammars and prompts, and the SQL queries for accessing the database at runtime. Finally, we will describe the setup and results obtained in a simultaneous summative, subjective and objective evaluations with different designers used to test the usability of the proposed accelerations as well as their contribution to reducing the design time and interaction.

An integral model for natural regeneration of Pinus pinea L. in the Northern Plateau (Spain) = Modelo integral de regeneración natural para Pinus pinea L. en la Meseta Norte (España)

Natural regeneration is an ecological key-process that makes plant persistence possible and, consequently, it constitutes an essential element of sustainable forest management. In this respect, natural regeneration in even-aged stands of Pinus pinea L. located in the Spanish Northern Plateau has not always been successfully achieved despite over a century of pine nut-based management. As a result, natural regeneration has recently become a major concern for forest managers when we are living a moment of rationalization of investment in silviculture. The present dissertation is addressed to provide answers to forest managers on this topic through the development of an integral regeneration multistage model for P. pinea stands in the region. From this model, recommendations for natural regeneration-based silviculture can be derived under present and future climate scenarios. Also, the model structure makes it possible to detect the likely bottlenecks affecting the process. The integral model consists of five submodels corresponding to each of the subprocesses linking the stages involved in natural regeneration (seed production, seed dispersal, seed germination, seed predation and seedling survival). The outputs of the submodels represent the transitional probabilities between these stages as a function of climatic and stand variables, which in turn are representative of the ecological factors driving regeneration. At subprocess level, the findings of this dissertation should be interpreted as follows. The scheduling of the shelterwood system currently conducted over low density stands leads to situations of dispersal limitation since the initial stages of the regeneration period. Concerning predation, predator activity appears to be only limited by the occurrence of severe summer droughts and masting events, the summer resulting in a favourable period for seed survival. Out of this time interval, predators were found to almost totally deplete seed crops. Given that P. pinea dissemination occurs in summer (i.e. the safe period against predation), the likelihood of a seed to not be destroyed is conditional to germination occurrence prior to the intensification of predator activity. However, the optimal conditions for germination seldom take place, restraining emergence to few days during the fall. Thus, the window to reach the seedling stage is narrow. In addition, the seedling survival submodel predicts extremely high seedling mortality rates and therefore only some individuals from large cohorts will be able to persist. These facts, along with the strong climate-mediated masting habit exhibited by P. pinea, reveal that viii the overall probability of establishment is low. Given this background, current management –low final stand densities resulting from intense thinning and strict felling schedules– conditions the occurrence of enough favourable events to achieve natural regeneration during the current rotation time. Stochastic simulation and optimisation computed through the integral model confirm this circumstance, suggesting that more flexible and progressive regeneration fellings should be conducted. From an ecological standpoint, these results inform a reproductive strategy leading to uneven-aged stand structures, in full accordance with the medium shade-tolerant behaviour of the species. As a final remark, stochastic simulations performed under a climate-change scenario show that regeneration in the species will not be strongly hampered in the future. This resilient behaviour highlights the fundamental ecological role played by P. pinea in demanding areas where other tree species fail to persist.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Three-dimensional model of the potyviral genome-linked protein.

The full sequence of the genome-linked viral protein (VPg) cistron located in the central part of potato virus Y (common strain) genome has been identified. The VPg gene codes for a protein of 188 amino acids, with significant homology to other known potyviral VPg polypeptides. A three-dimensional model structure of VPg is proposed on the basis of similarity of hydrophobic-hydrophilic residue distribution to the sequence of malate dehydrogenase of known crystal structure. The 5' end of the viral RNA can be fitted to interact with the protein through the exposed hydroxyl group of Tyr-64, in agreement with experimental data. The complex favors stereochemically the formation of a phosphodiester bond [5'-(O4-tyrosylphospho)adenylate] typical for representatives of picornavirus-like viruses. The chemical mechanisms of viral RNA binding to VPg are discussed on the basis of the model structure of protein-RNA complex.

Validation of the Spanish version of mackey childbirth satisfaction rating scale

Background: The “Mackey Childbirth Satisfaction Rating Scale” (MCSRS) is a complete non-validated scale which includes the most important factors associated with maternal satisfaction. Our primary purpose was to describe the internal structure of the scale and validate the reliability and validity of concept of its Spanish version MCSRS-E. Methods: The MCSRS was translated into Spanish, back-translated and adapted to the Spanish population. It was then administered following a pilot test with women who met the study participant requirements. The scale structure was obtained by performing an exploratory factorial analysis using a sample of 304 women. The structures obtained were tested by conducting a confirmatory factorial analysis using a sample of 159 women. To test the validity of concept, the structure factors were correlated with expectations prior to childbirth experiences. McDonald’s omegas were calculated for each model to establish the reliability of each factor. The study was carried out at four University Hospitals; Alicante, Elche, Torrevieja and Vinalopo Salud of Elche. The inclusion criteria were women aged 18–45 years old who had just delivered a singleton live baby at 38–42 weeks through vaginal delivery. Women who had difficulty speaking and understanding Spanish were excluded. Results: The process generated 5 different possible internal structures in a nested model more consistent with the theory than other internal structures of the MCSRS applied hitherto. All of them had good levels of validation and reliability. Conclusions: This nested model to explain internal structure of MCSRS-E can accommodate different clinical practice scenarios better than the other structures applied to date, and it is a flexible tool which can be used to identify the aspects that should be changed to improve maternal satisfaction and hence maternal health.

The influence of substrate kinetics on the microbial community structure in granular anaerobic biomass

The development of a strong, active granular sludge bed is necessary for optimal operation of upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactors. The microbial and mechanical structure of the granules may have a strong influence on desirable properties such as growth rate, settling velocity and shear strength. Theories have been proposed for granule microbial structure based on the relative kinetics of substrate degradation, but contradict some observations from both modelling and microscopic studies. In this paper, the structures of four granule types were examined from full-scale UASB reactors, treating wastewater from a cannery, a slaughterhouse, and two breweries. Microbial structure was determined using fluorescence in situ hybridisation probing with 16S rRNA-directed oligonucleotide probes, and superficial structure and microbial density (volume occupied by cells and microbial debris) assessed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The granules were also modelled using a distributed parameter biofilm model, with a previously published biochemical model structure, biofilm modelling approach, and model parameters. The model results reflected the trophic structures observed, indicating that the structures were possibly determined by kinetics. Of particular interest were results from simulations of the protein grown granules, which were predicted to have slow growth rates, low microbial density, and no trophic layers, the last two of which were reflected by microscopic observations. The primary cause of this structure, as assessed by modelling, was the particulate nature of the wastewater, and the slow rate of particulate hydrolysis, rather than the presence of proteins in the wastewater. Because solids hydrolysis was rate limiting, soluble substrate concentrations were very low (below Monod half saturation concentration), which caused low growth rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A work domain analysis framework for modelling intensive care unit patients

Work domain analysis (WDA) has been applied to a range of complex work domains, but few WDAs have been undertaken in medical contexts. One pioneering effort suggested that clinical abstraction is not based on means-ends relations, whereas another effort downplayed the role of bio-regulatory mechanisms. In this paper it is argued that bio-regulatory mechanisms that govern physiological behaviour must be part of WDA models of patients as the systems at the core of intensive care units. Furthermore it is argued that because the inner functioning of patients is not completely known, clinical abstraction is based on hypothetico-deductive abstract reasoning. This paper presents an alternative modelling framework that conforms to the broader aspirations of WDA. A modified version of the viable systems model is used to represent the patient system as a nested dissipative structure while aspects of the recognition primed decision model are used to represent the information resources available to clinicians in ways that support lsquoif...thenrsquo conceptual relations. These two frameworks come together to form the recursive diagnostic framework, which may provide a more appropriate foundation for information display design in the intensive care unit.