Mesure des plis cutanés et masse adipeuse corporelle: une précision de l'excès de poids dans l'enquête épidémiologique

By definition, obesity corresponds to the presence of a mass of fatty tissue that is excessive with respect to the body mass. Body fat can be calculated in terms of age and sex by measuring the skinfold thickness in several different places. During the MONICA project, the survey of cardiovascular risk factor prevalence enabled us to measure the thickness of four skinfolds (biceps, triceps, subscapular, suprailiac) in 263 inhabitants of Lausanne (125 men, 138 women). In men aged 25-34, 21 +/- 5% of the body mass was composed of fat, in women 29 +/- 4%. The proportion of fat increases to 31 +/- 7% in men and 41 +/- 6% in women aged 55-64. A robust regression allows body fat to be simply expressed in terms of the body mass index. This allows us to confirm the validity of this index for evaluating the degree of obesity during an epidemiological study.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors (1984-1993) in a Swiss region: results of three population surveys.

BACKGROUND: This study attempted to assess the time trends in lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors in the Swiss region of Vaud-Fribourg (population 784,000). METHODS: Three surveys (1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1992/1993), based on independent representative samples (n = 3,300) of the population ages 25 to 74, were conducted within the framework of the international WHO-MONICA Project. RESULTS: The most favorable changes were observed in reported behaviors: increased physical activity in leisure time, healthier dietary habits (switch from unskimmed milk, butter, and meat to skimmed milk, margarine, and fish, with no change for fruits and vegetables), and lower prevalence of regular smoking among men (from 32 to 28%). Body mass index did not vary significantly, apart from an increase in the prevalence of obesity among men (from 11 to 15%). Total cholesterol varied only slightly, while the HDL cholesterol levels decreased steadily (from 1.37 to 1.19 mmol/L among men; from 1.59 to 1.51 among women). Average systolic blood pressure regressed among women (from 127.2 to 124.4 mm Hg), while the prevalence of untreated hypertension increased among older men. CONCLUSION: The self-reported changes in lifestyle were only partially reflected by favorable trends in objective measurements. Physical activity, even at moderate intensity, and consumption of fruits, vegetables, and fiber in general should be promoted.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

Do common genetic variants in endotoxin signaling pathway contribute to predisposition to alcoholic liver cirrhosis?

BACKGROUND: Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), produced by endotoxin-activated Kupffer cells, play a key role in the pathogenesis of alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). Alleles TNFA -238A, IL1B -31T and variant IL1RN*2 of repeat polymorphism in the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist increase production of TNF-alpha and IL-1beta, respectively. Alleles CD14 -159T, TLR4 c.896G and TLR4 c.1196T modify activation of Kupffer cells by endotoxin. We confirmed the published associations between these common variants and genetic predisposition to ALC by means of a large case-control association study conducted on two Central European populations. METHODS: The study population comprised a Czech sample of 198 ALC patients and 370 controls (MONICA project), and a German sample of 173 ALC patients and 331 controls (KORA-Augsburg), and 109 heavy drinkers without liver disease. RESULTS: Single locus analysis revealed no significant difference between patients and controls in all tested loci. Diplotype [IL1RN 2/ 2; IL1B -31T+] was associated with increased risk of ALC in the pilot study, but not in the validation samples. CONCLUSIONS: Although cytokine mediated immune reactions play a role in the pathogenesis of ALC, hereditary susceptibility caused by variants in the corresponding genes is low in Central European populations.

Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Is the increase in coronary events on Mondays an artifact?

Background: The aim of this article was to investigate the size and possible causes of the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays. Methods: We conducted a metaanalysis of data from the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project, which monitored trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. The MONICA Project was undertaken in 21 countries from 1980 to 1995. Results: We found a small overall excess rate of coronary events on Mondays. In a population experiencing 100 events per week, we estimate there would be approximately I more event on Monday than on any other day. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that the Monday excess was greater in centers with less thorough data collection procedures. Conclusions: The excess of coronary events on Mondays is probably an artifact resulting from events with uncertain dates being coded as taking place on Mondays.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

Dietary enrichment by almond supplementation: effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Europe responsible for more than 4.3 million deaths annually. The World Health Organisation funded the Monica project (1980s-1990s) which monitored ten million subjects aged 22-6Syrs, and demonstrated that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality declined over 10 years, was due in two thirds of cases to reduced incidence of CHD (reduced risk behaviours e.g. poor diet and smoking) and one third by improved treatments. Epidemiological evidence suggests diets rich in antioxidants decrease incidence of CVD. Regular consumption of nuts, rich in vitamin E and polyphenols reduces atherosclerosis, an important risk for heart disease. Intervention studies to date using alpha tocopherol (an active component of vitamin E) have not consistently proved beneficial. This thesis aims to investigate the effect of almond supplementation on vascular risk factors in healthy young males (18-3Syrs); mature males and female(>SOyrs); and males considered at increased risk of CVD (18-3Syrs) in a cohort of 67 subjects. The effects of almond intake were assessed after 2Sg/d for four weeks followed by SOg/d for four weeks and compared to a control group which did not consume almonds or change their diet. Cardiovascular risk was assessed by plasma lipid profiles, apolipoprotein A1, plasma nitrates/nitrates, vascular flow, BMl, blood pressure, sVCAM-1 and protein oxidation. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced in almond supplemented volunteers but not in controls. Dietary monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acid content and total dietary fats were increased by almond supplementation. Neither sVCAM-1, venous occlusion plethysmography nor plasma nitrite levels were affected by almond intake in any independent group. No significant changes in plasma lipids, and apolipoprotein A1 were observed. In conclusion almonds supplementation caused a reduction in blood pressure that may be due to increased sensitivity of the baroreceptors after increased monounsaturated fatty acid intake.

Santa Monica Mountains area : recreational trails coordination project : final summary report /

"This report was prepared through a cooperative effort of the Santa Monica Mountains Area Recreation Trails Coordination Project [and] ... facilitated by the Rivers, Trails and Conservation Assistance Program ..."--Verso t.p.

Assessment of schistosomiasis in the semi-arid Northeast region of Brazil: the São Francisco River large-scale water transposition project

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Risk of schistosomiasis expansion to semi-arid northeastern Brazil under the influence of the Integration Project of the São Francisco River (IPSFR) was assessed. METHODS: Stool examinations of schoolchildren, epidemiological investigation, and survey of the local host snail Biomphalaria straminea were performed in five IPSFR municipalities. RESULTS Six of 4,770 examined schoolchildren were egg-positive for Schistosoma mansoni. Biomphalaria straminea was widespread, but not naturally infected with S. mansoni. Snails experimentally exposed to two laboratory S. mansoni strains yielded infection indices of 1-4.5%. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of active schistosomiasis transmission in the area; thus, intensive surveillance actions are required.

The Panama canal expansion mega project : a case study and stakeholder´s analysis

As globalization increases integration, a new playing field is emerging which is driving the need for operational efficiencies and alignment of complementary capabilities among countries to build sustainable models and integrated offerings. As demands increase, companies are turning to effective project management as means to control operations and countries are increasing the amount of mega projects to boost their competitiveness and global footprint. Given the scale, complexity, political nature, multicultural makeup, and high level of visibility; mega projects rely on successful stakeholder management to effectively manage its operational, tactical, and strategic levels to execute their mission. This paper examines the success drivers of mega projects and presents an in depth stakeholder assessment of the Panama Canal Expansion mega project to identify the perceived value to its stakeholder community. The stakeholder categories include: the Panama Canal Authority, subcontractors executing the expansion project, customers of the canal in Panama and U.S., as well as the communities surrounding the Panama Canal and ports in the U.S. East Coast. The conclusion of this paper captures the relationship between the effective stakeholder engagement from the Panama Canal Authority, the perceived value of the Panamanian stakeholders, and compares it to U.S. based mega projects being executed simultaneously to allow the U.S. East Coast ports to accommodate increased cargo volumes.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 687 - "Experimental Movie Project", "The Police and Minority Groups" u.a. (p. IX 150.1-17 - IX 152.1-2)

"Experimental Movie Project" (1945-46):; 1. "Below the Surface", Drehbuch des Testfilms, a) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 46 Blatt, b) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 26 Blatt, c) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 26 Blatt, d) als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 26 Blatt "Experimental Movie Project" (1945-46): Memoranden zum Test; 2. 'Notes' 25.4.1946, Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 3. "Memorandum on Experimental Movie Project", 19.4.1946. Typoskript, 3 Blatt; 4. "Memorandum re: 'Below the Surface" (Juli 1945). Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 5. Dore Schary und Allen Rivkin: 'Memorandum, Subject: New Suggested Treatment for 'Below the Surface'", 13.7.1945. Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 6. Hans Richter: "Report about the film script 'Below the surface'", 7. u. 8.7.1945, a) Typoskript, 1 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 7. Hans Richter: Bestätigung der Vereinbarung mit dem American Jewish Committee, 3.7.1945. Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 8. "Notes and Suggestions re Experimental Motion Picture", Juni 1945. Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 9. Siegfried Kracauer; "Suggestions for the Dialogue" (4.4.1945). Typoskript, 3 Blatt; 10. "Motion Picture", März 1945. Typoskript, 5 Blatt; 11. "Project on a Test film", a) Typoskript, 4 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 5 Blatt; 12. "Memorandum re: 'Below the Surface'", a) Typoskript, 3 Blatt, b) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen von Theodor W. Adorno, 3 Blatt; "Experimental Movie Project" (1945-46): Korrespondenz zum Test-Film-Projekt:; 13. Friedrich Pollock: 1 Brief an Max Horkheimer, Santa Monica, California, 12.10.1945; 14. Theodor W. Adorno: 2 Briefe an Max Horkheimer, Los Angeles und Santa Monica, California, 1945; 15. Joseph M. Proskauer: 1 Brief von Max Horkheimer, o.O., 29.6.1945, 1 Brief mit Unterschrift an Max Horkheimer, o.O., o.D., 3 Blatt; 16. Alexander Hackenschmied, 1 Brief mit Unterschrift an Max Horkheimer, New York, 19.6.1945, 1 Blatt; 17. Gilbert Gabriel: 1 Brief von John Slawson, o.O., 22.3.1945, 2 Blatt; "The Police and Minority Groups" (1946):; 1. "The Police and Minority Groups". Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 2. Robert W. Kenny: "Police and Minority Groups - an Experiment". Als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 17 Blatt; 3. Davis McEntire, Robert B. Powers: "Police Training Bulletin. A Guide to Race Relations for Police Officers", State of California, 1946, 38 Seiten; Max Horkheimer: "Memorandum on a Study of Race Hatred in Post-War Germany" (1946):; 1. Memorandum, a) Typoskript, 8 Blatt, b) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen und handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 6 Blatt, c) Typoskript, 5 Blatt, d) Teilstück, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 1 Blatt e) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 5 Blatt, f) Teilstück, Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt, g) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 7 Blatt, h) Teilstück, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen und Ergänzungen, 1 Blatt, i) Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 2. Theodor W. Adorno: "Ad Memorandum Neumann", Manuskript, 3 Blatt;

UK consensus project on quality in palliative day services: developing a quality indicator set using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method

Introduction
Evaluating quality of palliative day services is essential for assessing care across diverse settings, and for monitoring quality improvement approaches.

Aim
To develop a set of quality indicators for assessment of all aspects (structure, process and outcome) of care in palliative day services.

Methods
Using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method (Fitch et al., 2001), a multidisciplinary panel of 16 experts independently completed a survey rating the appropriateness of 182 potential quality indicators previously identified during a systematic evidence review. Panel members then attended a one day, face-to-face meeting where indicators were discussed and subsequently re-rated. Panel members were also asked to rate the feasibility and necessity of measuring each indicator.

Results
71 indicators classified as inappropriate during the survey were removed based on median appropriateness ratings and level of agreement. Following the panel discussions, a further 60 were removed based on appropriateness and feasibility ratings, level of agreement and assessment of necessity. Themes identified during the panel discussion and findings of the evidence review were used to translate the remaining 51 indicators into a final set of 27.

Conclusion
The final indicator set included information on rationale and supporting evidence, methods of assessment, risk adjustment, and recommended performance levels. Further implementation work will test the suitability of this ‘toolkit’ for measurement and benchmarking. The final indicator set provides the basis for standardised assessment of quality across services, including care delivered in community and primary care settings.

Reference

• Fitch K, Bernstein SJ, Aguilar MD, et al. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User’s Manual. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation; 2001. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1269