Traditional scores versus IRT estimates on forced-choice tests based on a dominance model

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

On choice of technique in the Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model

We report results on the optimal \choice of technique" in a model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (henceforth, the RSS model) and further discussed by Okishio and Stiglitz. By viewing this vintage-capital model without discounting as a speci c instance of the general theory of intertemporal resource allocation associated with Brock, Gale and McKenzie, we resolve longstanding conjectures in the form of theorems on the existence and price support of optimal paths, and of conditions suÆcient for the optimality of a policy rst identi ed by Stiglitz. We dispose of the necessity of these conditions in surprisingly simple examples of economies in which (i) an optimal path is periodic, (ii) a path following Stiglitz' policy is bad, and (iii) there is optimal investment in di erent vintages at di erent times. (129 words)

Practice location of physicians: a discrete choice model approach

Economists and policymakers have long been concerned with increasing the supply of health professionals in rural and remote areas. This work seeks to understand which factors influence physicians’ choice of practice location right after completing residency. Differently from previous papers, we analyse the Brazilian missalocation and assess the particularities of developing countries. We use a discrete choice model approach with a multinomial logit specification. Two rich databases are employed containing the location and wage of formally employed physicians as well as details from their post-graduation. Our main findings are that amenities matter, physicians have a strong tendency to remain in the region they completed residency and salaries are significant in the choice of urban, but not rural, communities. We conjecture this is due to attachments built during training and infrastructure concerns.

The Choice of Expedient Regulatory Controls on Housing Market Using Short-Term Equilibria Model

Khutoretsky dealt with the problem of maximising a linear utility function (MUF) over the set of short-term equilibria in a housing market by reducing it to a linear programming problem, and suggested a combinatorial algorithm for this problem. Two approaches to the market adjustment were considered: the funding of housing construction and the granting of housing allowances. In both cases, locally optimal regulatory measures can be developed using the corresponding dual prices. The optimal effects (with the regulation expenditures restricted by an amount K) can be found using specialised models based on MUF: a model M1 for choice of the optimum structure of investment in housing construction, and a model M2 for optimum distribution of housing allowances. The linear integer optimisation problems corresponding to these models are initially difficult but can be solved after slight modifications of the parameters. In particular, the necessary modification of K does not exceed the maximum construction cost of one dwelling (for M1) or the maximum size of one housing allowance (for M2). The result is particularly useful since slight modification of K is not essential in practice.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an increase with phase of CDM. Later phases were generally associated with a larger increase in career choice readiness. Number of considered career options showed a curve-linear development with fewer options considered at the beginning and at the end of the process. Male students showed a larger variability in their distribution among the process with more male than female students in the first and last phase of the process. Implications for theory and practice are presented.

FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHOD AMONG MARRIED FECUND WOMEN WHO INTEND NO ADDITIONAL BIRTHS: HEALTH BELIEF MODEL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

This research examined to what extent Health Belief Model (HBM) and socioeconomic variables were useful in explaining the choice whether or not more effective contraceptive methods were used among married fecund women intending no additional births. The source of the data was the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth conducted under the auspices of the National Center for Health Statistics. Using the HBM as a framework for multivariate analyses limited support was found (using available measures) that the HBM components of motivation and perceived efficacy influence the likelihood of more effective contraceptive method use. Support was also found that modifying variables suggested by the HBM can influence the effects of HBM components on the likelihood of more effective method use. Socioeconomic variables were found, using all cases and some subgroups, to have a significant additional influence on the likelihood of use of more effective methods. Limited support was found for the concept that the greater the opportunity costs of an unwanted birth the greater the likelihood of use of more effective contraceptive methods. This research supports the use of HBM and socioeconomic variables to explain the likelihood of a protective health behavior, use of more effective contraception if no additional births are intended.^

Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

A structural model for a homeotic protein-extradenticle-DNA complex accounts for the choice of HOX protein in the heterodimer.

The genes of the homeotic complex (HOX) encode DNA binding homeodomain proteins that control developmental fates by differentially regulating the transcription of downstream target genes. Despite their unique in vivo functions, disparate HOX proteins often bind to very similar DNA sequences in vitro. Thus, a critical question is how HOX proteins select the correct sets of target genes in vivo. The homeodomain proteins encoded by the Drosophila extradenticle gene and its mammalian homologues, the pbx genes, contribute to HOX specificity by cooperatively binding to DNA with HOX proteins. For example, the HOX protein labial cooperatively binds with extradenticle protein to a 20-bp oligonucleotide that is sufficient to direct a labial-like expression pattern in Drosophila embryos. Here we have analyzed the protein-DNA interactions that are important for forming the labial-extradenticle-DNA complex. The data suggest a model in which labial and extradenticle, separated by only 4 bp, bind this DNA as a heterodimer in a head-to-tail orientation. We have confirmed several aspects of this model by characterizing extradenticle-HOX binding to mutant oligonucleotides. Most importantly, mutations in base pairs predicted to contact the HOX N-terminal arm resulted in a change in HOX preference in the heterodimer, from labial to Ultrabithorax. These results demonstrate that extradenticle prefers to bind cooperatively with different HOX proteins depending on subtle differences in the heterodimer binding site.

Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume IV: operating instructions and programs documentation for the CS Vehicle Choice Simulation Model. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Technology Assessment Division, Washington, D.C.

The value of travel time: new estimates developed using a speed-choice model. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Forecasting auto ownership and mode choice for U.S. metropolitan areas. Volume II: model equations. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.