Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

Longitudinal distribution and lateral pattern of megalopal settlement and juvenile recruitment of Carcinus maenas (L.) (Brachyura, Portunidae) in the Mira River Estuary, Portugal

Settlement is a critical process in the life history of crabs, and thus affecting the abundance, distribution and structure of estuarine communities. The spatial pattern of settlement of megalopae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas along a longitudinal estuarine gradient (Mira River Estuary, Portugal) was examined, as well as its effects on the juvenile population. To measure megalopal settlement, four replicate collectors were deployed in six equally spaced stations along the estuarine axis. Juveniles were collected on the same locations with a quadrat randomly deployed on the substrate. To assess fine-scale megalopal settlement within a curved region of the estuary, replicate collectors were deployed on both margins along Moinho da Asneira curve. Megalopae settled differently along the six longitudinal points, with a tendency to attenuate their settlement upstream. Within the curved region, megalopae preferentially settled on the left margin collectors, probably due to the weaker velocity speeds felt on this margin. Concerning the overall juvenile density, there were significant differences among the stations distributed along the estuary, but they did no reflect a longitudinal dispersion attenuation pattern. Size-frequency distribution of the juvenile population showed that the average size is higher on the left margin. Recruits (carapace length between 1.0 mm and 3.4 mm) were more abundant on the upstream stations. Density of early juveniles (3.4 mm-6.5 mm) and juveniles (6.5 mm-10 mm) was more stable throughout the estuary axis than that of recruits. This distribution pattern may result from tidal excursion processes or mechanisms to avoid biotic interactions, such as predation and competition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of real time dispersion of Tritium clouds over the Western Mediterranean Basin in different assesments

Real time Tritium concentrations in air coming from an ITER-like reactor as source were coupled the European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) numerical model with the lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model FLEXPART. This tool ECMWF/FLEXPART was analyzed in normal operating conditions in the Western Mediterranean Basin during 45 days at summer 2010. From comparison with NORMTRI plumes over Western Mediterranean Basin the real time results have demonstrated an overestimation of the corresponding climatologically sequence Tritium concentrations in air outputs, at several distances from the reactor. For these purpose two clouds development patterns were established. The first one was following a cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean Sea and the second one was based in the cloud delivered over the Interior of the Iberian Peninsula by another stabilized circulation corresponding to a High. One of the important remaining activities defined then, was the tool qualification. The aim of this paper is to present the ECMWF/FLEXPART products confronted with Tritium concentration in air data. For this purpose a database to develop and validate ECMWF/FLEXPART tritium in both assessments has been selected from a NORMTRI run. Similarities and differences, underestimation and overestimation with NORMTRI will allowfor refinement in some features of ECMWF/FLEXPART

Longitudinal distribution and lateral pattern of megalopal settlement and juvenile recruitment of Carcinus maenas (L.) (Brachyura, Portunidae) in the Mira River Estuary, Portugal

Settlement is a critical process in the life history of crabs, and thus affecting the abundance, distribution and structure of estuarine communities. The spatial pattern of settlement of megalopae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas along a longitudinal estuarine gradient (Mira River Estuary, Portugal) was examined, as well as its effects on the juvenile population. To measure megalopal settlement, four replicate collectors were deployed in six equally spaced stations along the estuarine axis. Juveniles were collected on the same locations with a quadrat randomly deployed on the substrate. To assess fine-scale megalopal settlement within a curved region of the estuary, replicate collectors were deployed on both margins along Moinho da Asneira curve. Megalopae settled differently along the six longitudinal points, with a tendency to attenuate their settlement upstream. Within the curved region, megalopae preferentially settled on the left margin collectors, probably due to the weaker velocity speeds felt on this margin. Concerning the overall juvenile density, there were significant differences among the stations distributed along the estuary, but they did no reflect a longitudinal dispersion attenuation pattern. Size-frequency distribution of the juvenile population showed that the average size is higher on the left margin. Recruits (carapace length between 1.0 mm and 3.4 mm) were more abundant on the upstream stations. Density of early juveniles (3.4 mm-6.5 mm) and juveniles (6.5 mm-10 mm) was more stable throughout the estuary axis than that of recruits. This distribution pattern may result from tidal excursion processes or mechanisms to avoid biotic interactions, such as predation and competition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrostratigraphic analysis of the MADE site with full-resolution GPR and direct-push hydraulic profiling

Full-resolution 3D Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) data were combined with high-resolution hydraulic conductivity (K) data from vertical Direct-Push (DP) profiles to characterize a portion of the highly heterogeneous MAcro Dispersion Experiment (MADE) site. This is an important first step to better understand the influence of aquifer heterogeneities on observed anomalous transport. Statistical evaluation of DP data indicates non-normal distributions that have much higher similarity within each GPR facies than between facies. The analysis of GPR and DP data provides high-resolution estimates of the 3D geometry of hydrostratigraphic zones, which can then be populated with stochastic K fields. The lack of such estimates has been a significant limitation for testing and parameterizing a range of novel transport theories at sites where the traditional advection-dispersion model has proven inadequate.

Effect of upstream traffic signal on capacity of a downstream TWSC intersection

This paper investigates the platoon dispersion model that is part of the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual that is used for forecasting downstream traffic flows for analyzing both signalized and TWSC intersections. The paper focuses on the effect of platoon dispersion on the proportion of time blocked, the conflicting flow rate, and the capacity flow rate for the major street left turn movement at a TWSC intersection. The existing HCM 2010 methodology shows little effect on conflicting flow or capacity for various distances downstream from the signalized intersection. Two methods are suggested for computing the conflicting flow and capacity of minor stream movements at the TWSC intersection that have more desirable properties than the existing HCM method. Further, if the existing HCM method is retained, the results suggest that the upstream signals model be dropped from the HCM method for TWSC intersections.

An Exact Analysis of Unsteady Convective Diffusion in an Annular Pipe

An exact solution to the unsteady convective diffusion equation for the dispersion of a solute in a fully developed laminar flow in an annular pipe is obtained. Generalized dispersion model which is valid for all time after the injection of solute in the flow is used to evaluate the dispersion coefficients as functions of time. It is observed that the axial dispersion decreases with an increase in the radius of the inner cylinder.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

Emissões de compostos orgânicos voláteis de um aterro controlado e o potencial formador de ozônio

O presente estudo teve como objetivo quantificar as emissões de Compostos Orgânicos Voláteis do Aterro Controlado Morro do Céu localizado na cidade de Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Para tanto, vinte amostras foram coletadas, usando uma bomba de ar operada a bateria durante dois dias de dezembro de 2009. Uma câmara de fluxo cilíndrica de PVC de 30L foi inserida 5 cm no solo do aterro, e as amostras foram coletadas através de uma válvula na parte superior da câmera. Os resultados indicaram um valor de 1.980 Kg Km-2 h-1. O modelo Gaussiano de dispersão atmosférica ISCST3 foi utilizado para calcular a difusão e transporte dos poluentes a fim de estimar as concentrações de COV no bairro, usando dados topográficos, meteorológicos e de emissões. Valores de 525 μg m-3 de COV foram encontrados a 500 metros do aterro. As emissões do aterro foram usadas em conjunto com dados meteorológicos, utilizando o modelo de trajetória OZIPR e o mecanismo químico SAPRC para demonstrar o impacto na formação do ozônio troposférico na região. É conhecido que o ozônio é formado pela reação entre COV, NOx e luz solar. A contribuição de valores elevados de COV provenientes das emissões do aterro conduzirá a uma nova situação com valores mais elevados de ozônio na região. Os resultados da modelagem indicaram um aumento maior que 1000% nos níveis de ozônio na região do aterro, se comparado com a modelagem do ozônio para a região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. Os resultados mostram ser necessário que maior atenção seja dada à política de gerenciamento de RSU no Brasil, incluindo a escolha adequada para o local de instalação, o monitoramento da área durante e após o período de operação e técnicas mais adequadas de disposição dos resíduos sólidos urbanos

Effects of density differences on lateral mixing in open-channel flows

This study investigates lateral mixing of tracer fluids in turbulent open-channel flows when the tracer and ambient fluids have different densities. Longitudinal dispersion in flows with longitudinal density gradients is investigated also.

Lateral mixing was studied in a laboratory flume by introducing fluid tracers at the ambient flow velocity continuously and uniformly across a fraction of the flume width and over the entire depth of the ambient flow. Fluid samples were taken to obtain concentration distributions in cross-sections at various distances, x, downstream from the tracer source. The data were used to calculate variances of the lateral distributions of the depth-averaged concentration. When there was a difference in density between the tracer and the ambient fluids, lateral mixing close to the source was enhanced by density-induced secondary flows; however, far downstream where the density gradients were small, lateral mixing rates were independent of the initial density difference. A dimensional analysis of the problem and the data show that the normalized variance is a function of only three dimensionless numbers, which represent: (1) the x-coordinate, (2) the source width, and (3) the buoyancy flux from the source.

A simplified set of equations of motion for a fluid with a horizontal density gradient was integrated to give an expression for the density-induced velocity distribution. The dispersion coefficient due to this velocity distribution was also obtained. Using this dispersion coefficient in an analysis for predicting lateral mixing rates in the experiments of this investigation gave only qualitative agreement with the data. However, predicted longitudinal salinity distributions in an idealized laboratory estuary agree well with published data.

Descrição da metodologia do cálculo de dispersão de plumas aplicada a um complexo industrial

O cálculo de dispersão de plumas é uma ferramenta empregada para se estimar o alcance dos poluentes emitidos por uma chaminé nas suas redondezas. É empregada nos países desenvolvidos há alguns anos e recentemente vem sendo exigida pelas agências ambientais brasileiras como um dos requisitos para concessão das licenças de operação. Baseia-se em um cálculo gaussiano, onde os dados de entrada são as taxas de emissão, os dados físicos da chaminé, dados meteorológicos e topográficos. Como é uma técnica recente no Brasil, este trabalho se propõe a fazer uma descrição da metodologia e suas etapas, indicando quais são os dados mais relevantes e quais simplificações podem ser feitas. O estudo de caso foi realizado nas instalações das Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB). Os resultados indicaram que a influência de edificações adjacentes à fonte emissora é um dos parâmetros mais importantes, seguido da influência do relevo da região. Foi também realizada uma comparação entre os dois softwares comerciais existentes, o ISCST3, de maior complexidade, e o SCREEN mais simplificado, e indicou que o SCREEN pode ser usado como uma ferramenta de avaliação inicial, quando todos os dados de entrada necessários para se usar o ISCST3 não estão disponíveis

Emissões atmosféricas e implicações potenciais sobre a biota terrestre devido as atividades antrópicas na Baía do Almirantado/ Ilha Rei George Antártica

Neste trabalho foi realizado um estudo sobre o impacto sobre a atmosfera e a biota terrestre devido às emissões antrópicas na Baia do Almirantado/Ilha Rei George Antártica. Foram monitoradas as emissões dos compostos orgânicos voláteis e semi-voláteis, tanto nas fontes emissoras como no entorno da Estação Antártica Comandante Ferraz e estimadas as emissões dos navios, dos geradores a diesel e da incineração de lixo. Na avaliação do entorno, coletaram-se amostras de ar, neve e penas de aves. Com os resultados das emissões, do estudo topográfico e da meteorologia, realizou-se uma modelagem de plumas gaussiana para avaliar os impactos. Quatro cenários foram avaliados: dois com a presença dos navios NApOc Ary Rongel e Maximiano apresentaram concentrações máximas de até 356 g m-3 de COV e 18 g m-3 de material particulado, enquanto os demais, sem a presença dos navios, apenas considerando as estações de pesquisa EACF e Arctowski, apresentaram concentrações máximas de até 2,5 g m-3 de COV e 1,3 g m-3 de material particulado. Amostras de COV coletadas foram compatíveis com o cenário mais crítico. O estudo de correlação para carbonilas e HPA atmosférico e Carbono elementar e HPA, depositados em neve, apontaram a EACF como a principal fonte de emissão. As concentrações de levoglucosano detectadas a aproximadamente 2 km da EACF apontaram para a prática de incineração de lixo da EACF. Todas as áreas de interesse biológicos, anteriormente mapeados, dentro da AAEG, são vulneráveis às emissões antrópicas, como sugeriu o modelo de dispersão e a sobreposição dos resultados encontrados.

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

Avaliação do impacto radiológico atmosférico de uma unidade de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto radiológico atmosférico da Unidade de Concentrado de Urânio URA, Caetité, BA, através da modelagem da dispersão de radionuclídeos e a estimativa da dose efetiva anual (em mSv.ano-1). Para tal, utilizou-se o programa MILDOS-AREA que foi desenvolvido pelo Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) em conjunto com a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico nas instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio. O incremento de dose efetiva anual para três grupos críticos hipotéticos e oito grupos populacionais reais foi estimado com base na medida de fluxos de radônio e na estimativa das concentrações de radionuclídeos em particulados no ar dos principais termos fontes da URA (cava da mina, depósito de estéril e britador). Paralelamente, as medidas de concentração de radônio e taxa de kerma no ar, reportadas nos relatórios dos programas de monitoração ambiental pré-operacional (PMAPO) e operacional (PMAO) da URA, foram avaliadas. Os valores de dose efetiva anual estimados para os grupos críticos hipotéticos variaram de 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.ano-1, enquanto que para os grupos populacionais, variaram de 7,49E-05 a 1,56E-02 mSv.ano-1. A maior contribuição para o incremento da dose foi devida a inalação do radônio, sendo responsável por quase a totalidade da dose efetiva anual estimada. A média da concentração de atividade de radônio no entorno da URA foi 137,21 Bq m-3 e não sendo observada diferenças significativas entre as concentrações de radônio reportadas nos programas de monitoramento ambiental pré-operacional (valores de background) e operacional. Os valores médios de taxa de kerma no ar no entorno da URA foram de 0,136 μGy h-1. No entanto, em todos os pontos de monitoramento, os valores reportados no programa operacional foram inferiores aos valores reportados no programa pré-operacional (background), o que sugere problemas de medidas ou de coleta de dados durante a realização deste programa. O operador da URA utilizou para avaliação de impacto radiológico atmosférico, resultados apresentados em seus relatórios finais de análise de segurança (RFAS), um modelo próprio de simulação de dispersão, denominado Impacto Ambiental Radiológico (IAR7). Uma comparação entre o MILDOS-AREA e o IAR7, utilizando os mesmos parâmetros de entrada reportados no RFAS sugere que o IAR7 subestimou as concentrações de radônio no ar para os grupos críticos hipotéticos. Os resultados de simulação com o MILDOS-AREA mostram que as doses efetivas estimadas para os grupos críticos hipotéticos são inferiores a 0,3 mSv.ano-1 que é a restrição de dose estabelecida pela Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear. Recomenda-se que o código MILDOS-AREA seja utilizado no Brasil, para fins de licenciamento e controle, tendo em vista que o mesmo é um código validado e já utilizado em outros países para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico em instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio