Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Life-Cycle Energy Analysis of a Modular/Off-Site Building School

This paper is concerned with assessing the building’s the energy efficiency and qualities of a modular design for the education industry, in order assess the long economic benefits. The research includes a life-cycle energy and cost analysis of the school building design, predicting the impact on the operational cost of the building as a result of the addition of photovoltaic panels. The paper also includes a comparative study between the ECO Modular Solutions building, and a current standard prefabricated school building, quantifying the savings in CO2 emissions and savings in cost.

Differential expression of liver fluke β-tubulin isotypes at selected life cycle stages

We have shown that Fasciola hepatica expresses at least six ß-tubulins in the adult stage of its life cycle, designated F.hep-ß-tub1-6 (Ryan et al., 2008). Here we show that different complements of tubulin isotypes are expressed in different tissues and at different life cycle stages; this information may inform the search for novel anthelmintics. The predominant (as judged by quantitative PCR) isotype transcribed at the adult stage was F.hep-ß-tub1 and immunolocalisation studies revealed that this isotype occurred mainly in mature spermatozoa and vitelline follicles. Quantitative PCR indicated that changes occurred in the transcription levels of ß-tubulin isotypes at certain life cycle stages and may be of importance in the efficacy of benzimidazole-based anthelmintic drugs, but there were no significant differences between the triclabendazole (TCBZ)-susceptible Leon isolate and the TCBZ-resistant Oberon isolate in the transcription levels of each of the isotypes. When three well-characterised isolates with differing susceptibilities to TCBZ were compared, only one amino acid change resulting from a homozygous coding sequence difference (Gly269Ser) in isotype 4 was observed. However, this change was not predicted to alter the overall structure of the protein. In conclusion, these findings indicate that there is tissue-specific expression of tubulin isotypes in the liver fluke but the development of resistance to TCBZ is not associated with changes in its presumed target molecule.

Comparison of allocation approaches in soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment

This work shows the influence of using different allocation approaches when modelling the inventory analysis in a soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment (LCA). Results obtained using mass, energy and economic based allocations are compared, focusing on the following aspects: normalised potential environmental impact (PEI) categories, total PEI and relative contributions to the total PEI from each life cycle stage and environmental impact category. Similar results are obtained either using economic and energy based allocations. However, different results are obtained when mass based allocation is used when compared with the other two. This study also illustrates that using different allocation approaches in biodiesel LCA may influence the final conclusions, especially in comparative assertions, emphasising the need to perform a sensitivity analysis in the LCA interpretation step.

Validating the impact of EVM on project life cycle

With the inevitable increase in size and complexity of construction projects, the need for proper control is increasing. Considering the fact that each project strives for excellence, numerous studies have been conducted over the years to measure performance and investigate factors that are really critical towards project success. Earned Value Management is a project performance evaluation technique which enables industry professionals to closely monitor project performance in both time and cost .The aim of this paper is to examine the result of proper Earned Value Management (EVM) implementation on different project life cycle (PLC) and validate the impact on project success.

The study investigates different success factors in construction industry with special focus on previous researchers’ work which studied the importance of cost control in project success especially in fragmented industry like construction, followed up with three different case studies to analyze the positive impact of EVM implementation on construction projects. Furthermore, for data triangulation purpose, case study analysis will be supported by interviews with specialists working in the UAE construction industry to cross check the outcomes of previous researches.
The research shows that EVM application on cost control in construction projects is not only a crucial management task which is a key to the success of the business but also its influence on project success depends on the time of implementation. It requires a number of up-to-date input data consistently throughout the construction phase. Assigning the right budgets, calculating accurate estimates and monitoring actual costs throughout different project stages are the three main drivers of an effective control through PLC staring from inception stage till completion. EVM proved to be of vital importance due to alarming escalation of construction costs which needs to be especially monitored and controlled. Senior management support and availability of professional staff to execute cost control systems are key factors towards successful implementation

Local systems, global impacts : Using life cycle assessment to analyse the potential and constraints of industrial symbioses

Human activities extract and displace different substances and materials from the earth s crust, thus causing various environmental problems, such as climate change, acidification and eutrophication. As problems have become more complicated, more holistic measures that consider the origins and sources of pollutants have been called for. Industrial ecology is a field of science that forms a comprehensive framework for studying the interactions between the modern technological society and the environment. Industrial ecology considers humans and their technologies to be part of the natural environment, not separate from it. Industrial operations form natural systems that must also function as such within the constraints set by the biosphere. Industrial symbiosis (IS) is a central concept of industrial ecology. Industrial symbiosis studies look at the physical flows of materials and energy in local industrial systems. In an ideal IS, waste material and energy are exchanged by the actors of the system, thereby reducing the consumption of virgin material and energy inputs and the generation of waste and emissions. Companies are seen as part of the chains of suppliers and consumers that resemble those of natural ecosystems. The aim of this study was to analyse the environmental performance of an industrial symbiosis based on pulp and paper production, taking into account life cycle impacts as well. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for quantitatively and systematically evaluating the environmental aspects of a product, technology or service throughout its whole life cycle. Moreover, the Natural Step Sustainability Principles formed a conceptual framework for assessing the environmental performance of the case study symbiosis (Paper I). The environmental performance of the case study symbiosis was compared to four counterfactual reference scenarios in which the actors of the symbiosis operated on their own. The research methods used were process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) (Papers II and III) and hybrid LCA, which combines both process and input-output LCA (Paper IV). The results showed that the environmental impacts caused by the extraction and processing of the materials and the energy used by the symbiosis were considerable. If only the direct emissions and resource use of the symbiosis had been considered, less than half of the total environmental impacts of the system would have been taken into account. When the results were compared with the counterfactual reference scenarios, the net environmental impacts of the symbiosis were smaller than those of the reference scenarios. The reduction in environmental impacts was mainly due to changes in the way energy was produced. However, the results are sensitive to the way the reference scenarios are defined. LCA is a useful tool for assessing the overall environmental performance of industrial symbioses. It is recommended that in addition to the direct effects, the upstream impacts should be taken into account as well when assessing the environmental performance of industrial symbioses. Industrial symbiosis should be seen as part of the process of improving the environmental performance of a system. In some cases, it may be more efficient, from an environmental point of view, to focus on supply chain management instead.  

The life-cycle effects of social security in a model with housing and endogenous benefits

This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat (Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply)

A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszer finanszírozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző parametrikus és paradigmatikus nyugdíjreformok enyhíthetnek. A reformok azonban hosszú távon olyan viselkedési, munkakínálati reakciókat válthatnak ki, amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009 között Magyarországon megfigyelhető átlagos munka- és nyugdíjkorprofilok bemutatása után arra tettünk kísérletet, hogy mikroökonómiai alapon határozzuk meg néhány alapvető parametrikus nyugdíjreformnak a férfiak életciklus-munkakínálatára gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramétereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 és 2009 közötti jellemzőinek megfelelően kalibráltuk. Eredményeink szerint a helyettesítési ráta csökkentése, a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése és a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserélése összességében számottevően növeli az egyes képzettségi csoportok munkakínálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosítja át az életciklus-munkakínálatot, míg a nyugdíj kiszámításához figyelembe vett évek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentős aggregált hatást, és nem jár a munkakínálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosításával. ____ Financing the social-security pension system will weigh heavily on the government budget in developed countries, merely through the projected demographic processes. The burden could be eased by various parametric and paradigmatic pension reforms, but in the long run such reforms may trigger behavioural, labour-supply responses, which may alter the budgetary effects fundamentally. Having described the average work and pension profiles in Hungary between 1999 and 2009, the authors use a microeconomic approach in an attempt to assess the effect of certain parametric pension reforms on the life-cycle labour supply of males. The parameters for the model were calibrated for the characteristics of the Hungarian economy. The results show that decreasing the replacement rate, increasing the retirement age and replacing Swiss indexation of pensions by price indexation cause a considerable increase in the labour supply of all education-level groups, whereas changing the number of years considered in computing pensions does not have a significant aggregate effect. While introducing price indexation increases the labour supply of all cohorts by the same amount, the other reforms reallocate the life-cycle labour supply, mainly towards younger age-groups.

Resource use and greenhouse gas emissions from grain-finishing beef cattle in seven Australian feedlots: a life cycle assessment

Grain finishing of cattle has become increasingly common in Australia over the past 30 years. However, interest in the associated environmental impacts and resource use is increasing and requires detailed analysis. In this study we conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate impacts of the grain-finishing stage for cattle in seven feedlots in eastern Australia, with a particular focus on the feedlot stage, including the impacts from producing the ration, feedlot operations, transport, and livestock emissions while cattle are in the feedlot (gate-to-gate). The functional unit was 1 kg of liveweight gain (LWG) for the feedlot stage and results are included for the full supply chain (cradle-to-gate), reported per kilogram of liveweight (LW) at the point of slaughter. Three classes of cattle produced for different markets were studied: short-fed domestic market (55–80 days on feed), mid-fed export (108–164 days on feed) and long-fed export (>300 days on feed). In the feedlot stage, mean fresh water consumption was found to vary from 171.9 to 672.6 L/kg LWG and mean stress-weighted water use ranged from 100.9 to 193.2 water stress index eq. L/kg LWG. Irrigation contributed 57–91% of total fresh water consumption with differences mainly related to the availability of irrigation water near the feedlot and the use of irrigated feed inputs in rations. Mean fossil energy demand ranged from 16.5 to 34.2 MJ lower heating values/kg LWG and arable land occupation from 18.7 to 40.5 m2/kg LWG in the feedlot stage. Mean greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the feedlot stage ranged from 4.6 to 9.5 kg CO2-e/kg LWG (excluding land use and direct land-use change emissions). Emissions were dominated by enteric methane and contributions from the production, transport and milling of feed inputs. Linear regression analysis showed that the feed conversion ratio was able to explain >86% of the variation in GHG intensity and energy demand. The feedlot stage contributed between 26% and 44% of total slaughter weight for the classes of cattle fed, whereas the contribution of this phase to resource use varied from 4% to 96% showing impacts from the finishing phase varied considerably, compared with the breeding and backgrounding. GHG emissions and total land occupation per kilogram of LWG during the grain finishing phase were lower than emissions from breeding and backgrounding, resulting in lower life-time emissions for grain-finished cattle compared with grass finishing.

Life-cycle analysis of energy and greenhouse gas emissions of automotive fuels in India: Part 2-Well-to-wheels analysis

In this second of the two-part study, the results of the Tank-to-Wheels study reported in the first part are combined with Well-to-Tank results in this paper to provide a comprehensive Well-to-Wheels energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions evaluation of automotive fuels in India. The results indicate that liquid fuels derived from petroleum have Well-to-Tank efficiencies in the range of 75-85% with liquefied petroleum gas being the most efficient fuel in the Well-to-Tank stage with 85% efficiency. Electricity has the lowest efficiency of 20% which is mainly attributed due to its dependence on coal and 25.4% losses during transmission and distribution. The complete Well-to-Wheels results show diesel vehicles to be the most efficient among all configurations, specifically the diesel-powered split hybrid electric vehicle. Hydrogen engine configurations are the least efficient due to low efficiency of production of hydrogen from natural gas. Hybridizing electric vehicles reduces the Well-to-Wheels greenhouse gas emissions substantially with split hybrid configuration being the most efficient. Electric vehicles do not offer any significant improvement over gasoline-powered configurations; however a shift towards renewable sources for power generation and reduction in losses during transmission and distribution can make it a feasible option in the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of ethanol on vehicle energy efficiency and implications on ethanol life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis.

Bioethanol is the world's largest-produced alternative to petroleum-derived transportation fuels due to its compatibility within existing spark-ignition engines and its relatively mature production technology. Despite its success, questions remain over the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of fuel ethanol use with many studies showing significant impacts of differences in land use, feedstock, and refinery operation. While most efforts to quantify life-cycle GHG impacts have focused on the production stage, a few recent studies have acknowledged the effect of ethanol on engine performance and incorporated these effects into the fuel life cycle. These studies have broadly asserted that vehicle efficiency increases with ethanol use to justify reducing the GHG impact of ethanol. These results seem to conflict with the general notion that ethanol decreases the fuel efficiency (or increases the fuel consumption) of vehicles due to the lower volumetric energy content of ethanol when compared to gasoline. Here we argue that due to the increased emphasis on alternative fuels with drastically differing energy densities, vehicle efficiency should be evaluated based on energy rather than volume. When done so, we show that efficiency of existing vehicles can be affected by ethanol content, but these impacts can serve to have both positive and negative effects and are highly uncertain (ranging from -15% to +24%). As a result, uncertainties in the net GHG effect of ethanol, particularly when used in a low-level blend with gasoline, are considerably larger than previously estimated (standard deviations increase by >10% and >200% when used in high and low blends, respectively). Technical options exist to improve vehicle efficiency through smarter use of ethanol though changes to the vehicle fleets and fuel infrastructure would be required. Future biofuel policies should promote synergies between the vehicle and fuel industries in order to maximize the society-wise benefits or minimize the risks of adverse impacts of ethanol.

Life Cycle Assessment guidelines for the sustainable production and recycling of aggregates:The Sustainable Aggregates Resource Management project (SARMa)

The mining/quarrying industry is a sector of industry where there are very few Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools, and where the role of LCA has been poorly investigated. A key issue is the integration of three inter-dependent life cycles: Project, Asset and Product. Given the unique features of mining LCAs, this Note from the Field presents a common methodology implemented within the Sustainable Aggregates Resource Management (SARMa) Project (www.sarmaproject.eu) in order to boost adoption of LCA in the aggregate industry in South Eastern Europe. The proposed methodology emphasises the importance of resource efficiency and recycling in the context of a Sustainable Supply Mix of aggregates for the construction industry. Through its adoption, aggregate producers, recyclers, and governmental planners would gain confidence with LCA tools and conduct consistent and meaningful life cycle analyses of natural and recycled aggregates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric pension reform and the intensive margin of labor supply, evidence from Colombia

We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.