Active tuberculosis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis latent infection in patients with HIV/AIDS

Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important disease associated with HIV infection and AIDS in Brazil, even in a setting of free access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB treatment. In previous studies, isoniazid therapy (IT) for latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (LIMTb) was found to reduce the risk of TB by 62% in patients with a tuberculin test (TT)> 5 mm. The objectives of this study were to investigate the occurrence of TB, the prevalence of LIMTb and the coverage of the TT and IT, and to estimate the number of missed opportunities to prevent TB in patients with HIV/AIDS. Methods A random sample of patients with HIV/AIDS was selected; data from the medical files were obtained, and a TT was performed in consenting subjects. Results In the 203 subjects included in the study, TB occurrence was 13.3%, LIMTb prevalence was 20% and the coverage of the TT and IT was 59.2 and 55%, respectively. Patients with TB had a lower nadir CD4 cell count, but their CD4 recovery was comparable to that of non-TB patients. Patients with LIMTb always had a higher CD4 cell count. Conclusions By expanding the coverage of the TT and IT to nearly 100%, we could more than double the number of prevented cases of TB. TB prevention programmes must be reinforced to reduce the number of missed opportunities for diagnosis, and IT must be improved to reduce TB among patients with HIV/AIDS. Empowering patients with knowledge about TB, the preventive role of IT and the need for an annual TT may be the best way of lowing rates of TB in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Avaliação do teste Quantiferon TB Gold in tube no diagnóstico de infecção latente pelo Mycobacterium tuberculosis em profissionais de saúde da atenção básica

Introdução: Os ensaios de liberação do interferon- γ (ELIG) surgiram como uma alternativa para o diagnóstico de infecção latente pelo Mycobacterium tuberculosis (ILTB). Neste estudo, nós comparamos o desempenho de um dos ELIG, teste Quantiferon TB Gold in tube – QFT, com a prova tuberculínica (PT) em dois pontos de corte (≥ 5 mm e ≥ 10 mm), em profissionais de saúde da atenção básica à saúde (ABS). Métodos: Estudo transversal realizado em profissionais de saúde da ABS de quatro capitais nacionais com alta incidência de TB. O resultado do teste QFT foi comparado com o resultado da PT nos pontos de corte ≥ 5mm e ≥ 10 mm. Resultados: Foram incluídos 632 profissionais de saúde. Ao considerar o ponto de corte ≥ 10 mm para a PT, a concordância entre QFT e a PT foi de 69% (k = 0,31) e para o ponto de corte ≥ 5 mm, a concordância entre os testes foi de 57% (k = 0,22). Devido a baixa concordância entre a PT e o QFT, nós avaliamos os possíveis fatores associados com a discordância entre eles. Ao comparar o grupo PT- / QFT- com o grupo PT+ / QFT-, no ponto de corte ≥ 5 mm, a idade entre 41-45 [OR = 2,70, IC 95%: 1,32-5,51] e 46-64 [OR = 2,04, IC 95%: 1,05-3,93], presença de cicatriz vacinal do BCG [OR = 2,72, IC 95%: 1,40-5,25] e trabalhar apenas na ABS [OR = 2,30, IC 95 %: 1,09-4,86] apresentaram associação estatística significativa. Para o ponto de corte ≥ 10 mm, a presença de cicatriz vacinal do BCG [OR = 2,26, IC 95%: 1,03-4,91], ter tido contato domiciliar com paciente portador de tuberculose ativa [OR = 1,72, IC 95%: 1,01-2,92] e ter feito a PT anteriormente [OR = 1,66, IC 95%: 1,05-2,62] revelaram associação estatística significativa. Curiosamente, a discordância observada no grupo PT- / QFT + não apresentou associação estatistica com nenhuma das variáveis consideradas, independentemente do ponto de corte da PT. Conclusões: Apesar de termos identificado que a vacina BCG contribuiu para a discordância entre os testes, as recomendações brasileiras para o início do tratamento da ILTB não devem ser alteradas devido as limitações do QFT.

Diagnosis of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: tuberculin test versus interferon-gamma release

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis (TB) and the identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) contacts are the two most important strategies for the control of TB. The objective of this study was compare the performance of tuberculin skin testing (TST) with QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) in the diagnosis of LTBI in contacts of patients with active TB. METHODS: Cross-sectional analytical study with 60 contacts of patients with active pulmonary TB. A blood sample of each contact was taken for interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and subsequently performed the TST. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to assess the cutoff points and the sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy were calculated. The agreement between IGRA and TST results was evaluated by Kappa coefficient. RESULTS: Here, 67.9% sensitivity, 84.4% specificity, 79.1% PPV, 75% NPV, and 76.7% accuracy were observed for the 5mm cutoff point. The prevalence of LTBI determined by TST and IGRA was 40% and 46.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) and TST showed good performance in LTBI diagnosis. The creation of specific diagnostic methods is necessary for the diagnosis of LTBI with higher sensitivity and specificity, preferably with low cost and not require a return visit for reading because with early treatment of latent forms can prevent active TB.

Factors associated with latent tuberculosis among asylum seekers in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study in Vaud County.

BACKGROUND: Screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in asylum seekers (AS) may prevent future cases of tuberculosis. As the screening with Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is costly, the objective of this study was to assess which factors were associated with LTBI and to define a score allowing the selection of AS with the highest risk of LTBI. METHODS: In across-sectional study, AS seekers recently arrived in Vaud County, after screening for tuberculosis at the border were offered screening for LTBI with T-SPOT.TB and questionnaire on potentially risk factors. The factors associated with LTBI were analyzed by univariate and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Among 393 adult AS, 98 (24.93%) had a positive IGRA response, five of them with active tuberculosis previously undetected. Six factors associated with LTBI were identified in multivariate analysis: origin, travel conditions, marital status, cough, age and prior TB exposure. Their combination leads to a robust LTBI predictive score. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LTBI and active tuberculosis in AS is high. A predictive score integrating six factors could identify the asylum seekers with the highest risk for LTBI.

Risk factors of latent tuberculosis infection among asylum-seekers recently arrived in Switzerland : A pilot study in Vaud county

Background: Asylum seekers may have a higher rate of latenttuberculosis infection (LTBI) than resident populations in Westerncountries. LTBI can be detected by an Interferon Gamma ReleaseAssay (IGRA). Screening asylum seekers at highest risk for LTBI orfuture tuberculosis by IGRA could be considered. The aims of this pilotstudy were to assess the prevalence and the risk factors of LTBI amonga group of asylum seekers recently arrived in Switzerland.Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was performed amongadult asylum seekers, staying in two migrant centers of the Vaud county,Switzerland, after a first screening for active tuberculosis at the border.The participants were offered IGRA screening using T-SPOT.TB andwere questioned about risk factors associated with LTBI. Migrants with apositive test had a chest radiograph and a medical examination. Thosewith active tuberculosis were excluded and were treated. The migrantswith LTBI received a preventive treatment, if indicated. The risk factorswere analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistical regression.Results: Among 788 migrants recently arrived, 639 were adults, 393agreed to be screened (61.50%) and 98 of them had a positive T-SPOT.TB (24.93%) of which 5 (5.1%) had an active tuberculosis (previouslynot detected at the border), and 2 had already been treated for activetuberculosis. In univariate analysis, the major risk factors associatedwith LTBI were country of origin and travel conditions. Compared withmigrants from Balkanic countries, migrants from Africa had an OR forLTBI of 3.68, migrants from Asia an OR of 4.3 and migrants fromFormer Soviet Union an OR of 4.5. Migrants who crossed severalborders before arriving in Switzerland had an OR of LTBI of 2.49compared with migrants who came directly from the home country.Age, cough and prior exposure to tuberculosis had a non-significantinfluence on the rate of test positivity. In multivariate analysis, thecombination of country of origin, travel conditions, age, cough andexposure to tuberculosis resulted in a score with optimal predictivevalue (Roc = 81%).Conclusions: Asylum seekers recently arrived in Vaud county had ahigh prevalence of LTBI and active tuberculosis. The major risk factorswere country of origin and travel conditions. Selecting for screening byIGRA the asylum seekers with the highest risk factors seems possible.

Eligibility for and outcome of treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in a cohort of HIV-infected people in Spain

BACKGROUND Previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (TLTBI) in persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus, but few studies have investigated the operational aspects of implementing TLTBI in the co-infected population.The study objectives were to describe eligibility for TLTBI as well as treatment prescription, initiation and completion in an HIV-infected Spanish cohort and to investigate factors associated with treatment completion. METHODS Subjects were prospectively identified between 2000 and 2003 at ten HIV hospital-based clinics in Spain. Data were obtained from clinical records. Associations were measured using the odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI). RESULTS A total of 1242 subjects were recruited and 846 (68.1%) were evaluated for TLTBI. Of these, 181 (21.4%) were eligible for TLTBI either because they were tuberculin skin test (TST) positive (121) or because their TST was negative/unknown but they were known contacts of a TB case or had impaired immunity (60). Of the patients eligible for TLTBI, 122 (67.4%) initiated TLTBI: 99 (81.1%) were treated with isoniazid for 6, 9 or 12 months; and 23 (18.9%) with short-course regimens including rifampin plus isoniazid and/or pyrazinamide. In total, 70 patients (57.4%) completed treatment, 39 (32.0%) defaulted, 7 (5.7%) interrupted treatment due to adverse effects, 2 developed TB, 2 died, and 2 moved away. Treatment completion was associated with having acquired HIV infection through heterosexual sex as compared to intravenous drug use (OR:4.6; 95% CI:1.4-14.7) and with having taken rifampin and pyrazinamide for 2 months as compared to isoniazid for 9 months (OR:8.3; 95% CI:2.7-24.9). CONCLUSIONS A minority of HIV-infected patients eligible for TLTBI actually starts and completes a course of treatment. Obstacles to successful implementation of this intervention need to be addressed.

The use of Mycobacterium tuberculosis HspX and GlcB proteins to identify latent tuberculosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease characterised by the destruction of articular cartilage and bone damage. The chronic treatment of RA patients causes a higher susceptibility to infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (TB); one-third of the world’s population is latently infected (LTBI) with Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb). The tuberculin skin test is used to identify individuals LTBI, but many studies have shown that this test is not suitable for RA patients. The goal of this work was to test the specific cellular immune responses to the Mtb malate synthase (GlcB) and heat shock protein X (HspX) antigens of RA patients and to correlate those responses with LTBI status. The T-helper (Th)1, Th17 and Treg-specific immune responses to the GlcB and HspX Mtb antigens were analysed in RA patients candidates for tumour necrosis factor-α blocker treatment. Our results demonstrated that LTBI RA patients had Th1-specific immune responses to GlcB and HspX. Patients were followed up over two years and 14.3% developed active TB. After the development of active TB, RA patients had increased numbers of Th17 and Treg cells, similar to TB patients. These results demonstrate that a GlcB and HspX antigen assay can be used as a diagnostic test to identify LTBI RA patients.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific CD8+ T cells are functionally and phenotypically different between latent infection and active disease.

Protective immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) remains poorly understood and the role of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells is controversial. Here we performed a broad phenotypic and functional characterization of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells in 326 subjects with latent Mtb infection (LTBI) or active TB disease (TB). Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells were detected in most (60%) TB patients and few (15%) LTBI subjects but were of similar magnitude. Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells in LTBI subjects were mostly T EMRA cells (CD45RA(+) CCR7(-)), coexpressing 2B4 and CD160, and in TB patients were mostly TEM cells (CD45RA(-) CCR7(-)), expressing 2B4 but lacking PD-1 and CD160. The cytokine profile was not significantly different in both groups. Furthermore, Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells expressed low levels of perforin and granulysin but contained granzymes A and B. However, in vitro-expanded Mtb-specific CD8(+) T cells expressed perforin and granulysin. Finally, Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses were less frequently detected in extrapulmonary TB compared with pulmonary TB patients. Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell proliferation was also greater in patients with extrapulmonary compared with pulmonary TB. Thus, the activity of Mtb infection and clinical presentation are associated with distinct profiles of Mtb-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses. These results provide new insights in the interaction between Mtb and the host immune response.

T cell reactivity against mycolyl transferase antigen 85 of M. tuberculosis in HIV-TB coinfected subjects and in AIDS patients suffering from tuberculosis and nontuberculous mycobacterial infections.

The mycolyl transferase antigen 85 complex is a major secreted protein family from mycobacterial culture filtrate, demonstrating powerful T cell stimulatory properties in most HIV-negative, tuberculin-positive volunteers with latent M.tuberculosis infection and only weak responses in HIV-negative tuberculosis patients. Here, we have analyzed T cell reactivity against PPD and Ag85 in HIV-infected individuals, without or with clinical symptoms of tuberculosis, and in AIDS patients with disease caused by nontuberculous mycobacteria. Whereas responses to PPD were not significantly different in HIV-negative and HIV-positive tuberculin-positive volunteers, responses to Ag85 were significantly decreased in the HIV-positive (CDC-A and CDC-B) group. Tuberculosis patients demonstrated low T cell reactivity against Ag85, irrespective of HIV infection, and finally AIDS patients suffering from NTM infections were completely nonreactive to Ag85. A one-year follow-up of twelve HIV-positive tuberculin-positive individuals indicated a decreased reactivity against Ag85 in patients developing clinical tuberculosis, highlighting the protective potential of this antigen.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific CD8 T cells are functionally and phenotypically different between latent infection and active disease

Purpose/Objective: Tuberculosis (TB) is the second worldwide leading cause of death from an infectious disease after HIV infection. Protective immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) remains poorly understood and the role of Mtb-specific CD8 T-cells is controversial. We performed comprehensive functional and phenotypic characterizations of Mtb-specific CD8 T-cell responses in 273 subjects with either latent Mtb infection (LTBI) or active TB disease (TB) to assess their profile and relevance in TB. Materials and methods: Using multi-parametric flow cytometry, we assessed Mtb-specific CD8 T-cell functional (production of IFNgamma, IL-2 and TNF-alpha; proliferation capacity and cytotoxicity) and phenotypic (T-cell differentiation and exhaustion) profiles in cells isolated from peripheral blood and correlated these profiles with distinct clinical presentations. Results: Mtb-specific CD8 T-cells were detected in most TB patients and few LTBI subjects (65% and 15%, respectively; P < 0.00001) and were of similar magnitude with a comparable cytokines profile (IFNg+TNFa+IL2-) in both groups. Mtb-specific CD8 T-cells were mostly TEMRA (CD45RA+ CCR7-) co-expressing 2B4 and CD160 in LTBI subjects and mostly TEM (CD45RA-CCR7-) lacking PD-1/ CD160/2B4 in TB patients. Furthermore, Mtb-specific CD8 T-cells mostly expressed very little perforin and granulysin but contained granzymes A and B or lacked all these cytotoxic markers in TB and LTBI subjects, respectively. However, in vitro expanded Mtb-specific CD8 T-cells acquired perforin, granulysin and granzymes. Finally, Mtb-specific CD8 T-cell responses were more robust and prone to proliferate in patients with extrapulmonary compared to pulmonary TB. Conclusions: The clinical status and TB presentation are associated to specific profiles of Mtb-specific CD8 T-cell responses, thus indicating distinct dynamics between the mycobacteria, the CD8 T-cell response and the clinical outcome. Our data shed light on the controversial reached by studies performed in human and animal models, thus advancing the current knowledge on the complex dynamic of TB immunity.

Interferon-gamma release assays for latent tuberculosis infection in child and young adult candidates or recipients of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor therapy

Background. Inhibition of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is associated with progression of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) to active disease. LTBI screening prior to starting TNF inhibitor therapy is recommended. Blood tests, collectively known as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs), offer a means other than the tuberculin skin test (TST) of screening for LTBI. However, in the setting of immune compromise, anergy may limit the clinical utility of IGRAs. ^ Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted in children and young adults ≤ 21 years of age who were cared for at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston, TX, during 2011 and who were candidates for, or were receiving, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitor therapy. All subjects answered a risk factor questionnaire and were tested for LTBI by two commercially available IGRAs (QuantiFERON-Gold In-Tube assay and the T-SPOT.TB assay), along with the TST. T-cell phenotypes were evaluated through flow cytometry, both at baseline and after antigen stimulation. ^ Results. Twenty-eight subjects were enrolled. All were TST negative and none were IGRA positive. Results were negative for the 27 subjects who were tested with QuantiFERON-Gold In-Tube. However, 26% of subjects demonstrated anergy in the T-SPOT.T. Patients with T-SPOT. TB anergy had lower quantitative IFN-γ responses to mitogen in the QFT assay—the mean IFN-γ level to mitogen in patients without T-SPOT.TB anergy was 9.84 IU/ml compared to 6.91 IU/ml in patients with T-SPOT.TB anergy (P = 0.046). Age and use of TNF inhibitors, corticosteroids, or methotrexate use were not significantly associated with T-SPOT.TB anergy. Antigen stimulation revealed depressed expression of intracellular IFN-γ in subjects with T-SPOT. TB anergy. ^ Conclusions. The frequency of anergy in this population is higher than would be expected from studies in adults. There appears to be inappropriate IFN-γ responses to antigen in subjects with T-SPOT. TB anergy. This immune defect was detected by the T-SPOT. TB assay but not by the QuantiFERON-Gold In-Tube assay. Further data are needed to clarify the utility of IGRAs in this population.^

Economic evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening among health care workers in Houston

Since interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) were introduced in the 2000's, tuberculin skin testing (TST) and IGRAs have been used in various latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening settings. IGRAs are laboratory-based tests and are considered not to be affected by previous Bacille de Calmette et Guérin (BCG) vaccination; however, they are more costly when compared directly with TST, which does not require specimen processing in a laboratory. This study aimed to examine TST and two types of IGRAs, QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT. TB (TSPOT), from an economic viewpoint. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify cost related analyses of LTBI screening. Secondly, specific cost information detailing each test's items and labor was collected from an LTBI screening program of health care workers in Houston, and the cost of each test was computed. Thirdly, using the computed cost estimate of each test, cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted to compare TST and IGRAs.^ A literature search showed that a limited number of studies have been conducted, but the IGRA's economic advantages were common among studies. Cost analyses showed that IGRAs were much more costly than TST. The results were consistent with previous studies. In cost-effectiveness analyses, where test cost and consequential TB-related cost were considered, IGRAs showed variable advantages over TST depending on the targeted population. When only non BCG-vaccinated people were considered, TST was the least costly option among the three tests. On the other hand, when only BCG-vaccinated people were considered, IGRAs were less costly options. These results were mostly consistent even with varying assumption parameters.^ IGRAs can be more costly than TST, but their economic disadvantages are alleviated when the target population was BCG-vaccinated. Based on current knowledge, IGRAs may be recommended in a population where the BCG history is mixed. Additional studies are needed to better understand IGRA's reliability among low-incidence and low-risk populations in which background TB prevalence is low.^

Indeterminate QunatiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube assay results in association with procedural specimen collection in children

BACKGROUND. The development of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) has introduced powerful tools in diagnosing latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and may play a critical role in the future of tuberculosis diagnosis. However, there have been reports of high indeterminate results in young patient populations (0-18 years). This study investigated results of the QunatiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) IGRA in a population of children (0-18 years) at Texas Children's Hospital in association with specimen collection procedures using surrogate variables. ^ METHODS. A retrospective case-control study design was used for this investigation. Cases were defined as having QFT-GIT indeterminate results. Controls were defined as having either positive or negative results (determinates). Patients' admission status, staff performing specimen collection, and specific nurse performing specimen collection were used as surrogates to measure specimen collection procedures. ^ To minimize potential confounding, abstraction of patients' electronic medical records was performed. Abstracted data included patients' medications and evaluation at the time of QFT-GIT specimen collection in addition to their medical history. QFT-GIT related data was also abstracted. Cases and controls were characterized using chi-squared tests or Fisher's exact tests across categorical variables. Continuous variables were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and t-tests for continuous variables. A multivariate model was constructed by backward stepwise removal of statistically significant variables from univariate analysis. ^ RESULTS. Patient data was abstracted from 182 individuals aged 0-18 years from July 2010 to August 2011 at Texas Children's Hospital. 56 cases (indeterminates) and 126 controls (determinates) were enrolled. Cancer was found to be an effect modifier with subsequent stratification resulting in a cancer patient population too small to analyze (n=13). Subsequent analyses excluded these patients. ^ The exclusion of cancer patients resulted in a population of 169 patients with 49 indeterminates (28.99%) and 120 determinates (71.01%), with mean ages of 9.73 (95% CI: 8.03, 11.43) years and 11.66 (95% CI: 10.75, 12.56) years (p = 0.033), respectively. Median age of patients who were indeterminates and determinates were 12.37 and 12.87 years, respectively. Lack of data for our specific nurse surrogate (QFTNurse) resulted in its exclusion from analysis. The final model included only our remaining surrogate variables (QFTStaff and QFTInpatientOutpatient). The staff collecting surrogate (QFTStaff) was found to be modestly associated with indeterminates when nurses collected the specimen (OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 0.51, 4.64, p = 0.439) in the final model. Inpatients were found to have a strong and statistically significant association with indeterminates (OR = 11.65, 95% CI: 3.89, 34.9, p < 0.001) in the final model. ^ CONCLUSION. Inpatient status was used as a surrogate for indication of nurse drawn blood specimens. Nurses have had little to no training regarding shaking of tubes versus phlebotomists regarding QFT-GIT testing procedures. This was also measured by two other surrogates; specifically a medical note stating whether a nurse or phlebotomist collected the specimen (QFTStaff) and the name and title of the specific nurse if collection was performed by a nurse (QFTNurse). Results indicated that inpatient status was a strong and statistically significant factor for indeterminates, however, nurse collected specimens and indeterminate results had no statistically significant association in non-cancer patients. The lack of data denoting the specific nurse performing specimen collection excluded the QFTNurse surrogate in our analysis. ^ Findings suggests training of staff personnel in specimen procedures may have little effect on the number of indeterminates while inpatient status and thus possibly illness severity may be the most important factor for indeterminate results in this population. The lack of congruence between our surrogate measures may imply that our inpatient surrogate gauged illness severity rather than collection procedures as intended. ^ Despite the lack of clear findings, our analysis indicated that more than half of indeterminates were found in specimens drawn by nurses and as such staff training may be explored. Future studies may explore methods in measuring modifiable variables during pre-analytical QFT-GIT procedures that can be discerned and controlled. Identification of such measures may provide insight into ways to lowering indeterminate QFT-GIT rates in children.^

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Latent tuberculosis infection : a diagnostic challenge : Tuberculin skin testing versus interferon-γ release assays

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014