Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Toxicity of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and their mixtures to aquatic organisms under ecologically-relevant scenarios

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous priority pollutants that tend to be trapped in aquatic sediments due to their high hydrophobicity. Nonetheless, the differential toxicological effects and mechanisms between the various classes of PAHs and their mixtures, as they invariably occur in the environment, are scarcely known, especially under ecologically-relevant scenarios. This thesis aimed at establishing a bridge between the study of mechanistic pathways and environmental monitoring of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic PAHs, by introducing ecological-relevance in the research with model PAHs. A first bioassay conducted in situ with the mussel Mytilus edulis demonstrated that, dredging operations in harbours increase PAH bioavailability, eliciting genotoxicity, and showed that established environmental guidelines underestimate risk. Subsequent ex situ bioassays were performed with the carcinogenic benzo[b]fluoranthene (B[b]F) and non-carcinogenic phenantrene (Phe), selected following preceding results, and revealed that low-moderate concentrations of these PAHs in spiked sediments induce genotoxic effects to the clam Ruditapes decussatus, therefore contradicting the general notion that bivalves are less sensitive to PAHs than vertebrates due to inefficient bioactivation. Also, it was demonstrated that passive samplers permit inferring on PAH bioavailability but not on bioaccumulation or toxic effects. On the other hand, sea basses (Dicentrarchus labrax), yielded a complex pattern of effects and responses, relatively to genotoxicity, oxidative stress and production of specific metabolites, especially when exposed to mixtures of the PAHs which led to additive, if not synergistic, effects. It was shown that Phe may elicit significant genotoxicity especially in presence of B[b]F, even though the low, albeit realistic, exposure concentrations diluted dose- and time-independent relationships. The present work demonstrated that environmental quality guidelines underestimate the effects of PAHs in realistic scenarios and showed that the significant genotoxic and histopathological effects caused by mixed PAHs may not be reflected by oxidative stress- or CYP-related biomarkers. Besides important findings on the metabolism of PAH mixtures, the work calls for the need to re-evaluate the criteria for assessing risk and for the disclosure of more efficient indicators of toxicological hazard.

Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

Changes in the floristic composition of a Terra Firme rain forest In Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period In response to logging

Changes in the floristic composition over an eight-year period in a logged area at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazilian Amazonia arc discussed. Two treatments of different intensities of logging were compared with an undisturbed (control) forest. Data were collected from permanent sample-plots. The effects of logging on floristic composition were stronger in the more heavily logged treatment. The number of species decreased immediately after logging, but started to increase before the fifth year after logging and was higher at the end of the study period than before logging. The more heavily logged plots responded more to disturbances, as judged by the increase in the number of species during the period after logging. This forest appears to recover its initial floristic composition after disturbance without intervention.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

Multi-temporal analysis of radiometric changes in satellite images of forest edges to infer selective-logging areas in the Amazon forest

Radiometric changes observed in multi-temporal optical satellite images have an important role in efforts to characterize selective-logging areas. The aim of this study was to analyze the multi-temporal behavior of spectral-mixture responses in satellite images in simulated selective-logging areas in the Amazon forest, considering red/near-infrared spectral relationships. Forest edges were used to infer the selective-logging infrastructure using differently oriented edges in the transition between forest and deforested areas in satellite images. TM/Landsat-5 images acquired at three dates with different solar-illumination geometries were used in this analysis. The method assumed that the radiometric responses between forest with selective-logging effects and forest edges in contact with recent clear-cuts are related. The spatial frequency attributes of red/near infrared bands for edge areas were analyzed. Analysis of dispersion diagrams showed two groups of pixels that represent selective-logging areas. The attributes for size and radiometric distance representing these two groups were related to solar-elevation angle. The results suggest that detection of timber exploitation areas is limited because of the complexity of the selective-logging radiometric response. Thus, the accuracy of detecting selective logging can be influenced by the solar-elevation angle at the time of image acquisition. We conclude that images with lower solar-elevation angles are less reliable for delineation of selecting logging.

China and India’s Maritime Geostrategies:: Implications for International Maritime Security and Scenarios for 2030

Dissertação de Mestrado em Estratégia

Un modelo contable para la evaluación económico-financiera en escenarios futuros de la empresa agropecuaria. An accounting model for the economic and financial evaluation of future scenarios in farm enterprises.

El problema: En todo momento y sobre todo cuando estamos en presencia de escenarios económicos turbulentos resulta imprescindible utilizar herramientas que permitan realizar análisis de sensitividad sobre las distintas situaciones que podrían plantearse. La elaboración de modelos matemáticos deterministas desde las aplicaciones realizadas por Richard Mattessich han constituido un instrumento idóneo para el caso de empresas comerciales o industriales. Los modelos informáticos utilizados para las empresas agropecuarias han abordado fundamentalmente la temática relacionada con la producción, no así las otras variables económicas y financieras. Por lo tanto, entendemos que se hace necesario trabajar con modelos agropecuarios que comprendan todas las variables económicas y financieras, de manera de observar otro tipo de cuestiones, tales como: el modo de financiarse, los costos financieros, necesidades de capital de trabajo. Hipótesis: Es posible, a través de la utilización de la información contable en sentido prospectivo, interpretar adecuadamente los escenarios futuros de las organizaciones agropecuarias, cuantificando los impactos que generan tanto las estrategias y políticas aplicables, como las distorsiones del contexto. Objetivo general: determinar la incidencia de las decisiones internas y las que provengan del funcionamiento del sistema económico, a través de la información contable prospectiva. Objetivos específicos: a. Describir los impactos que se producen en la estructura patrimonial, financiera y en los resultados, como consecuencia de los cambios en las estrategias y políticas de la empresa agropecuaria, así como los efectos macroeconómicos en la estructura de la empresa que pudieran estar conmoviendo la gestión económico-financiera. b. Identificar mecanismos y proponer criterios para la elaboración de modelos que permitan visualizar los impactos en los escenarios futuros y las adecuaciones necesarias en la estructura que permitan soportar las modificaciones. Metodología: será un estudio a nivel teórico, donde una vez identificadas las variables y planteados los modelos, se propondrán distintas situaciones y se testearán las respuestas. Resultados esperados: lograr un avance en la evaluación económico-financiera prospectiva de empresas agropecuarias y constituir un avance para futuras investigaciones. Importancia del proyecto: La producción agropecuaria es vital tanto para el desarrollo económico de Argentina, como en particular para la provincia de Córdoba. Elaborar herramientas que eficientizen la administración de este tipo de empresas, redundará en beneficio colectivo. Pertinencia: El producto verificable será la construcción de un modelo distinto a los actuales, tanto en su desarrollo, objetivo al que está destinado y sencillez de su aplicación, posibilitando la inserción del productor en el proceso de planificación, reduciendo el riesgo en la toma de decisiones. Esperando generar un avance sobre los modelos preexistente.

Statistical pattern recognition for audio-forensics : empirical investigations on the application scenarios audio steganalysis and microphone forensics

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Context modelling for IT security in selected application scenarios

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2015

Economic impacts of alternative water policy scenarios in the Spanish production system: an input-output analysis

The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic impacts of alternative water policies implemented in the Spanish production system. The methodology uses two versions of the input-output price model: a competitive formulation and a mark-up formulation. The input-output framework evaluates the impact of water policy measures on production prices, consumption prices, intermediate water demand and private welfare. Our results show that a tax on the water used by sectors considerably reduces the intermediate water demand, and increases the production and consumption prices. On the other hand, according to Jevons' paradox, an improvement in technical efficiency, which leads to a reduction in the water requirements of all sectors and an increase in water production, increases the amount of water consumed. The combination of a tax on water and improved technical efficiency takes the pressure off prices and significantly reduces intermediate water demand. JEL Classification: C67 ; D57 ; Q25. Keywords: Production prices; Consumption prices; Water uses; Water policy; Water taxation.

Cooperative strategies for imperfect CSI scenarios based on distributed Alamouti

Les comunicacions cooperatives estan guanyant un gran interès en les comunicacions modernes degut a que permeten millorar la transmissió dʼinformació entre un emissor i un receptor utilitzant una sèrie de terminals situats entre ells. Aquest projecte és un estudi complet del sistemes cooperatius, analitzant el seu rendiment i comparant lʼús dʼun sol dʼaquests terminals amb lʼús del codi Alamouti, que utilitza dos terminals. Primer hi ha una introducció als sistemes cooperatius i a la teoria de la informació. Després hem estudiat un sistema cooperatiu amb la teoria de la informació com a base, en termes de probabilitat de fallada del sistema, i posteriorment lʼhem adaptat a un sistema cooperatiu real utilitzant una modulació QPSK, estudiant la seva probabilitat dʼerror de paquet. Finalment es proposen diversos protocols que permeten millorar el rendiment del sistema cooperatiu estudiat.

Effects of different mating scenarios on embryo viability in brown trout.

Mating with attractive or dominant males is often predicted to offer indirect genetic benefits to females, but it is still largely unclear how important such non-random mating can be with regard to embryo viability. We sampled a natural population of adult migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta), bred them in vitro in a half-sib breeding design to separate genetic from maternal environmental effects, raised 2098 embryos singly until hatching, and exposed them experimentally to different levels of pathogen stress at a late embryonic stage. We found that the embryos' tolerance to the induced pathogen stress was linked to the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of their parents, i.e. certain MHC genotypes appeared to provide better protection against infection than others. We also found significant additive genetic variance for stress tolerance. Melanin-based dark skin patterns revealed males with 'good genes', i.e. embryos fathered by dark coloured males had a high tolerance to infection. Mating with large and dominant males would, however, not improve embryo viability when compared to random mating. We used simulations to provide estimates of how mate choice based on MHC or melanin-based skin patterns would influence embryos' tolerance to the experimentally induced pathogen stress.