Transparency in project bond ratings: Assessment of rating methodologies and development of a proven rating simulator

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

State of Iowa Long-Term Economic Recovery Strategy Prepared for the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2010

The Rebuild Iowa Office (RIO) continues to coordinate the state‘s recovery effort from the storms, tornadoes and floods of 2008. Much has been accomplished since the Office‘s last quarterly report was issued in July 2010. State funding has been disbursed to help Iowans with unmet needs and housing. Local governments and entities are utilizing millions of federal dollars so thousands of disaster-impacted homeowners can be offered a buyout. More infrastructure projects are under construction and new neighborhoods are being built with mitigation efforts in mind. However, as Iowa continues to celebrate many successes along the road to recovery, it must also address the numerous challenges that are encountered along the path. Recovering from the state‘s largest disaster must be looked at as a marathon, not a sprint. Over the past three months, the RIO has especially remained focused on helping small business owners impacted by the 2008 disasters. Many disaster-affected businesses have reopened their doors, however their debt load continues to be overwhelming and many still struggle with the timeliness of the disbursement of funds. This report describes how programs and recent modifications are working to assist recovering businesses. This report contains updates on housing progress while outlining the complexities behind certain programs and the bottlenecks communities are facing due to strict federal guidelines for implementation. This following pages also describe how Iowa is implementing Smart Planning principles, publicizing flood awareness through outreach efforts and preparing a blueprint for the state to follow when future disasters occur. As always, the RIO recognizes and thanks the countless leaders and front-line workers from local, regional, state and federal government, businesses, non-profit organizations and private citizens that have provided input, support and leadership. Their dedication to Iowa‘s disaster recovery has made the plans and projects on the following pages possible.

Regulating Concessions of Toll Motorways, An Empirical Study on Fixed vs. Variable Term Contracts

Recent theoretical developments on concession contracts for long term infrastructure projects under uncertain demand show the benefits of allowing for flexible term contracts rather than fixing a rigid term. This study presents a simulation to compare both alternatives by using real data from the oldest Spanish toll motorway. For this purpose, we analyze how well the flexible term would have performed instead of the fixed length actually established. Our results show a huge reduction of the term of concession that would have dramatically decreased the firm’s benefits and the user’s overpayment due to the internalization of an unexpected traffic increase.

Motorways, tolls and road safety. Evidence from European Panel Data

The use of tolls is being widespread around the world. Its ability to fund infrastructure projects and to solve budget constraints have been the main rationale behind its renewed interest. However, less attention has been payed to the safety effects derived from this policy in a moment of increasing concern on road fatalities. Pricing best infrastructures shifts some drivers onto worse alternative roads usually not prepared to receive high traffic in comparable safety standards. In this paper we provide evidence of the existence of this perverse consequence by using an international European panel in a two way fixed effects estimation.

Kustannusriskien hallinnan kehittäminen julkisissa liikenneväylähankkeissa

Tämän tutkimuksen keskeisempänä tavoitteena on kehittää kustannusriskien tunnistamista ja hallintaa julkisen organisaation liikenneväylähankkeissa. Hankkeiden kustannusarvioinnin epävarmuustekijöiden tunnistaminen ja minimointi varhaisessa vaiheessa nähdään keinona parantaa organisaation kokonaistuottavuutta ja -taloudellisuutta. Kyseinen diplomityö on tutkimusmenetelmältään laadullinen tapaustutkimus, jossa kustannusriskejä pyritään ymmärtämään ilmiöinä ja luomaan uutta tietoa. Työn empiirisenä aineistona on viisi eri liikenneväylähanketta. Kustannusriskien taustalla olevien tekijöiden tunnistamista varten on haastateltu näiden viiden väylähankkeen kustannushallinnan ydinhenkilöitä. Tähän menetelmään kiteytyy työn uutuusarvo aihepiirin aiempaan tutkimukseen verrattuna. Tutkimuksen keskeisin tulos on kustannusriskien tunnistustaulukko, jota ehdotetaan käytettävän kustannusarviointiin epävarmuutta aiheuttavien tekijöiden tunnistamiseen. Kustannusarvioinnin epävarmuustekijöiden minimointia varten tarkistustaulukossa on lueteltu kunkin kustannusriskin hallintaan ehdotettu hallintakeino. Tunnistustaulukkoa voidaan käyttää missä tahansa suunnitteluvaiheessa ja tarvittaessa päivittää tulevaisuudessa.

Rapport au travail et dynamique de transformation du métier d'ingénieur dans le contexte algérien: le cas de l'entreprise Sonatrach

Cette recherche a pour objet l'étude de la dynamique de transformation du métier d'ingénieur dans le contexte algérien saisi à travers le rapport au travail. Elle repose sur une approche théorique s'inspirant d'une sociologie des groupes professionnels avec une démarche alliant méthodes quantitatives et qualitatives. Prenant appui sur des données recueillies à l'aide d'un questionnaire et d'entretiens approfondis menés dans Sonatrach, la plus grande entreprise d'Algérie, notre étude s'est attachée à faire ressortir les facteurs qui agissent au niveau individuel, organisationnel et sociétal sur les pratiques professionnelles pour deux générations d'ingénieurs. La première a eu pour mission de bâtir le pays à travers les grands projets de développement qui ont caractérisé la période après l'indépendance. La deuxième est arrivée sur le marché de l'emploi, à la fin des années 80, dans un contexte de crise et a payé un lourd tribut à la détérioration de la conjoncture économique. Les pratiques professionnelles se construisent tout d'abord dans le travail, mais aussi dans l'exercice des activités quotidiennes, les relations avec les autres et enfin la satisfaction à l'égard du travail. Tels ont été les points focaux de notre démarche d'explicitation du rapport au travail chez nos ingénieurs. Nous avons mis en lumière l'effet de la position hiérarchique au sein de l'organisation et des types de fonction. La satisfaction tient de la fierté d'appartenir à une entreprise prestigieuse. Chez les jeunes, elle s'exprime aussi dans les avantages matériels et une vision du métier fondée sur la maîtrise technique. Les plus âgés, encore marqués par l'idéologie nationaliste, mettent l'accent sur la participation à l'édification du pays, mais aussi sur la réalisation de soi et la fidélité à l'entreprise. Le rapport au travail s'élabore également au fil du temps dans son cheminement professionnel. Nous l'avons abordé, dans une deuxième étape, en documentant les processus d'intégration et de mobilité au sein de l'entreprise. Les trajectoires professionnelles sont régies par des politiques et des procédures de gestion qui en définissent les modalités, mais elles obéissent également à des opportunités et à des pratiques informelles qui jouent un rôle tout aussi important dans la détermination des profils de carrière. Enfin, le rapport au travail est tributaire de facteurs qui dépassent le cadre de l'entreprise. Dans une troisième étape, nous avons analysé les transformations du système éducatif et leur impact sur la certification des ingénieurs, la crise économique et ses effets en termes de chômage et de précarité et enfin la montée du discours religieux et ses manifestations chez les ingénieurs. Ces facteurs liés au contexte sociétal modifient les représentations et modèlent les attitudes et comportements au travail et à l'égard de celui-ci. Comme le montre notre recherche, le rapport au travail articule, dans une composition complexe, parcours individuels et histoires collectives vécus dans des environnements en évolution. La pratique d'un métier se trouve liée aux différents contextes de socialisation qui traversent les individus. Elle se situe, dans le cas algérien, au croisement d'une formation scientifique et technique qui montre peu de réactivité aux besoins mouvants de l'opérateur économique qu'elle est censée satisfaire, d'une entreprise bureaucratique dans son organisation et dans son fonctionnement où le contournement des règles peut s'ériger en principes de gestion et enfin d'un contexte sociétal qui oscille entre modernité et tradition. Cette dernière est réinterprétée de manière orthodoxe par les mouvements religieux en action dans la société. Ainsi, les ingénieurs investis initialement d'une mission de développement et considérés alors comme "vecteur de modernité" connaissent une détérioration de leur statut et la crise touche la profession vécue cependant différemment selon les générations.

Le Plan Nord du gouvernement du Québec : analyse du design, du positionnement et de la planification stratégique des projets d'infrastructures de transport

Cette recherche a été financée par le Fonds de recherche sur la société et la culture du Québec et le Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines. L’auteur a de plus reçu le support financier du programme de remboursement des frais de scolarité des forces armées canadiennes. Les cartes ont été produites grâce au logiciel ArcGIS (ESRI).

El Banco del Sur: una institución financiera de apoyo al desarrollo y consolidación del proceso de integración suramericano, UNASUR

Esta investigación Monográfica busca fundamentalmente, evaluar si la creación de una institución financiera como Banco del Sur, representa una alternativa de apoyo financiero para el fortalecimiento del proceso de integración de la Unión Sudamericana de Naciones, por medio del financiamiento de proyectos transnacionales de infraestructura que permitan la integración física de Sudamérica. A partir de esto, se plantean como propósitos particulares: la identificación de los objetivos y funciones que tendrá el Banco del Sur para su funcionamiento, de acuerdo con los objetivos definidos por la UNASUR; así mismo, se pretende identificar los diferentes tipos de asimetrías en la región sudamericana y analizar de que manera, éstas constituyen un problema para el proceso de integración de la UNASUR y finalmente evaluar como el Banco del Sur, puede contribuir al fortalecimiento del proceso de integración de UNASUR, a través del financiamiento de proyectos de infraestructura física, para la construcción de la interconexión física de la región. Esta es una investigación aplicada de carácter prescriptivo, la cual identificará el problema de acuerdo a las principales dificultades, que pueden generar inconvenientes para la consolidación del proceso de integración de la UNASUR, tomando como referencia la creación del Banco del Sur como una posible alternativa aplicable para la solución del problema diagnosticado.

La cooperación internacional de la Unión Europea en Sudáfrica y el fútbol como herramienta de desarrollo de la política externa. Periodo : 2006 – 2009

La Unión Europea mantiene una dinámica de cooperación con Sudáfrica que incluye al fútbol como herramienta que contribuye a su desarrollo económico a partir de la realización de proyectos de infraestructura concernientes al Mundial de Fútbol de 2010.

The Integrated Mass Transit Systems Program in Colombia: an Example of Recentralization of the Cities´ Management?

The Integrated Mass Transit Systems are an initiative of the Colombian Government to replicate the experience of Bogota’s Bus Rapid Transit System —Transmilenio— in large urban areas of the country, most of them over municipal perimeters to provide transportation services to areas undergoing a metropolization process. Management of these large scale metropolitan infrastructure projects involves complex setups that present new challenges in the interaction between stakeholders and interests between municipalities, tiers of government and public and private sectors. This article presents a compilation of the management process of these projects from the national context, based on a document review of the regulatory framework, complemented by interviews with key stakeholders at the national level. Research suggests that the implementation of large-scale metropolitan projects requires a management framework orientated to overcome the traditional tensions between centralism and municipal autonomy.

Telecommunications and economic growth: an empirical analysis of sub-saharan Africa

We examine the effect on economic growth of mobile cellular phones in sub-Saharan Africa where a marked asymmetry is present between land-line penetration and mobile telecommunications expansion. This study extends previous ones along two important dimensions. First, we allow for the potential endogeneity between economic growth and telecommunications expansion by employing a special linear generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Second, we explicitly model for varying degrees of substitutability between mobile cellular and land-line telephony, so that greater expansion of mobile telecommunications can have a different impact whenever the level of land-line penetration differs. We find that mobile cellular phone expansion is an important determinant of the rate of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, we find that the contribution of mobile cellular phones to economic growth has been growing in importance in the region, and that the marginal impact of mobile telecommunication services is even greater wherever land-line phones are rare. Given the low cost of mobile telecommunications technology relative to other broad infrastructure projects, especially land-line infrastructure, we advocate that mobile telecommunication services be encouraged in the area.

Developing a mobile visualization environment for construction applications

There is a renewed interest in immersive visualization to navigate digital data-sets associated with large building and infrastructure projects. Following work with a fully immersive visualization facility at the University, this paper details the development of a complementary mobile visualization environment. It articulates progress on the requirements for this facility; the overall design of hardware and software; and the laboratory testing and planning for user pilots in construction applications. Like our fixed facility, this new light-weight mobile solution enables a group of users to navigate a 3D model at a 1:1 scale and to work collaboratively with structured asset information. However it offers greater flexibility as two users can assemble and start using it at a new location within an hour. The solution has been developed and tested in a laboratory and will be piloted in engineering design review and stakeholder engagement applications on a major construction project.

Diffusion of digital innovation in construction: a case study of a UK engineering firm

The UK government is mandating the use of building information modelling (BIM) in large public projects by 2016. As a result, engineering firms are faced with challenges related to embedding new technologies and associated working practices for the digital delivery of major infrastructure projects. Diffusion of innovations theory is used to investigate how digital innovations diffuse across complex firms. A contextualist approach is employed through an in-depth case study of a large, international engineering project-based firm. The analysis of the empirical data, which was collected over a four-year period of close interaction with the firm, reveals parallel paths of diffusion occurring across the firm, where both the innovation and the firm context were continually changing. The diffusion process is traced over three phases: centralization of technology management, standardization of digital working practices, and globalization of digital resources. The findings describe the diffusion of a digital innovation as multiple and partial within a complex social system during times of change and organizational uncertainty, thereby contributing to diffusion of innovations studies in construction by showing a range of activities and dynamics of a non-linear diffusion process.

Procedimento de manifestação de interesse: interesse de quem?

O Procedimento de Manifestação de Interesse (“PMI”) vem sendo utilizado por diferentes entes federativos brasileiros, principalmente nos últimos dois anos, quando o instituto foi regulamentado em muitos Estados. Seu objetivo é viabilizar a modelagem de projetos de infraestrutura sem onerar os cofres públicos e sem requerer expertise técnica pública. Insere-se no contexto de incentivo às possíveis sinergias oriundas das parcerias entre os setores público e privado. Entretanto, é importante considerar como principal obstáculo para a utilização do PMI a possibilidade de discrepância entre o interesse público e o privado. A análise econômica do direito oferece ferramentas capazes de contribuir com a averiguação dessa possível discrepância, tal como a teoria da agência. As premissas teóricas da agência podem ser aplicada à autorização conferida pelo poder público ao particular. No que tange ao conteúdo, o interesse visado pelo mercado com a elaboração de estudos de viabilidade pode destoar da persecução pelo interesse público, norte da Administração Pública. Em nível procedimental, é possível que ocorra a captura do interesse público na realização de um procedimento licitatório – capaz de selecionar o parceiro privado mais apto a cumprir com o objeto contratual – pelo particular autorizado a elaborar os estudos de viabilidade. Para tanto, foi realizado levantamento empírico acerca dos projetos de infraestrutura modelados via PMI, em que já ocorreu a licitação para contratos de PPPs, a fim de confirmar a hipótese de captura.

O desafio na contratação e elaboração de projetos para execução de obras rodoviárias: “o fator projeto”

O Governo brasileiro criou a partir de 2007 o PAC – Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento, um conjunto de projetos de infraestrutura no qual o DNIT ocupa posição de destaque com volume de recursos superior a R$ 58 bilhões. Desde o início do Programa o principal obstáculo é a insuficiência de projetos de qualidade. Projetos de engenharia são etapa crucial para o lançamento de licitações para obras de infraestrutura. Este gargalo de projeto, associado ao processo licitatório, é chamado de “fator projeto”. Em 2011 foi instituído o RDC – Regime Diferenciado de Contratações com o objetivo de remover estes entraves. Este trabalho surge da necessidade da Secretaria do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento, vinculada ao Ministério do Planejamento, e do Departamento Nacional de Infraestrutura de Transportes, vinculado ao Ministério dos Transportes, de entender os desafios impostos pelo “fator projeto” na execução dos projetos relacionados às obras rodoviárias no âmbito do PAC. Para tanto, foram analisados os aspectos de contratação pela Administração Pública, enfatizando as mudanças ocorridas no processo licitatório corridas depois da vigência do Regime Diferenciado de Contratação (RDC) e as formas contemporâneas de relacionamentos pré-contratuais, abordando as parcerias publico-privadas (PPP), as manifestações de interesse da iniciativa privada (PMI) e os diálogos concorrenciais. Após uma apresentação do DNIT e do processo de institucionalização do RDC no âmbito da autarquia concluiu-se que três aspectos tem contribuído para minimizar os efeitos do “fator projeto”: O primeiro, de natureza procedimental, está diretamente relacionado com o efeito da implementação do novo regime licitatório. Em projetos complexos, como os da área de infraestrutura, o desenvolvimento de relações pré-contratuais trazem ganhos consideráveis, tanto para Administração Pública quanto para o ente privado, por promover a redução das assimetrias de informação e a lapidação do objeto a ser contratado. O segundo aspecto está relacionado com a natureza do DNIT. Trata-se de uma Autarquia com acúmulo de conhecimentos na área de engenharia e gestão de projetos. Ao adotar intensamente o RDC, mostrou capacidade instalada e avançou nos parâmetros de monitoramento e gestão de risco e gerou um conjunto normativo atual e adequado para enfrentar os desafios do novo regime de contrações. O terceiro aspecto também está relacionado com o aspecto institucional do DNIT. Trata-se de sua estrutura organizacional, que influencia a governança dos processos licitatórios e que agrega dois predicados: segurança na responsabilização entre os diretores-membros quando partilham uma decisão e salvaguarda do corpo técnico para uma postura mais republicana. Estes tres aspectos levaram a uma maior eficácia e efetividade da Autarquia, minimizaram o "fator projeto". O Relatório de Gestão do DNIT de 2012 cita que no RDC há a redução de até 50% no tempo do processo licitatório em relação às modalidades concorrência e Tomada de Preços. A implementação do RDC Eletrônico, que possibilita a participação de empresas de todo o país, aumentou a competitividade e ajudou a executar R$ 10,2 bilhões em obras e serviços em infraestrutura de transportes.