New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Empirical evaluation of alternative approaches in identifying crash hot spots

This study proposes a framework of a model-based hot spot identification method by applying full Bayes (FB) technique. In comparison with the state-of-the-art approach [i.e., empirical Bayes method (EB)], the advantage of the FB method is the capability to seamlessly integrate prior information and all available data into posterior distributions on which various ranking criteria could be based. With intersection crash data collected in Singapore, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the following six approaches for hot spot identification: (a) naive ranking using raw crash data, (b) standard EB ranking, (c) FB ranking using a Poisson-gamma model, (d) FB ranking using a Poisson-lognormal model, (e) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson model, and (f) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson (AR-1) model. The results show that (a) when using the expected crash rate-related decision parameters, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than does the naive ranking method, and (b) the FB approach using hierarchical models significantly outperforms the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hazardous sites.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin in foods at the two most severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Background Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases were bulk storages for Agent Orange during the Vietnam War and currently are the two most severe dioxin hot spots. Objectives This study assesses the health risk of exposure to dioxin through foods for local residents living in seven wards surrounding these airbases. Methods This study follows the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the health risk of exposure to dioxin in foods. Forty-six pooled samples of commonly consumed local foods were collected and analyzed for dioxin/furans. A food frequency and Knowledge–Attitude–Practice survey was also undertaken at 1000 local households, various stakeholders were involved and related publications were reviewed. Results Total dioxin/furan concentrations in samples of local “high-risk” foods (e.g. free range chicken meat and eggs, ducks, freshwater fish, snail and beef) ranged from 3.8 pg TEQ/g to 95 pg TEQ/g, while in “low-risk” foods (e.g. caged chicken meat and eggs, seafoods, pork, leafy vegetables, fruits, and rice) concentrations ranged from 0.03 pg TEQ/g to 6.1 pg TEQ/g. Estimated daily intake of dioxin if people who did not consume local high risk foods ranged from 3.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 6.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Bien Hoa) and from 1.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 4.3 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Da Nang). Consumption of local high risk foods resulted in extremely high dioxin daily intakes (60.4–102.8 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Bien Hoa; 27.0–148.0 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Da Nang). Conclusions Consumption of local “high-risk” foods increases dioxin daily intakes far above the WHO recommended TDI (1–4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day). Practicing appropriate preventive measures is necessary to significantly reduce exposure and health risk.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Los Hot Spots: ¿Una alternativa para reducir los niveles de delincuencia en Bogotá?

El interés de esta monografía es analizar la incidencia de la estrategia de seguridad ciudadana de los Hot Spots en los niveles de delincuencia de Bogotá durante el periodo de la Alcaldía de Samuel Moreno 2009-2011, tomando como casos de estudio la Avenida 19 y la Zona Rosa (Chicó El Lago). Esta investigación se realiza desde los conceptos teórico-prácticos que ha arrojado el modelo de Hot Spot tras su aplicación en 18 ciudades del mundo, y que sirven como herramienta para analizar las transformaciones del delito en las zonas de estudio. De esta manera se avanza hacia el resultado que permite identificar los factores que impidieron que el modelo de Hot Spots se formulara y ejecutara efectivamente y por lo tanto no disminuyera los niveles de delincuencia en Bogotá.

Norepinephrine ignites local hot spots of neuronal excitation: how arousal amplifies selectivity in perception and memory

Arousal sometimes enhances and sometimes impairs perception and memory. In our Glutamate Amplifies Noradrenergic Effects (GANE) model, glutamate at active synapses interacts with norepinephrine released by the locus coeruleus to create local ‘hot spots’ of activity that enable the selective effects of arousal. This hot spot mechanism allows local cortical regions to self-regulate norepinephrine release based on current activation levels. In turn, hot spots bias global energetic delivery and functional network connectivity to enhance processing of high priority representations and impair processing of lower priority representations.

Hot spots, hot moments, and spatio-temporal controls on soil CO2 efflux in a water-limited ecosystem

Soil CO2 efflux is the primary source of CO2 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. The rates of this flux vary in time and space producing hot moments (sudden temporal high fluxes) and hot spots (spatially defined high fluxes), but these high reaction rates are rarely studied in conjunction with each other. We studied temporal and spatial variation of soil CO2 efflux in a water-limited Mediterranean ecosystem in Baja California, Mexico. Soil CO2 efflux increased 522% during a hot moment after rewetting of soils following dry summer months. Monthly precipitation was the primary driver of the seasonal trend of soil CO2 efflux (including the hot moment) and through changes in soil volumetric water content (VWC) it influenced the relationship between CO2 efflux and soil temperature. Geostatistical analyses showed that the spatial dependence of soil CO2 efflux changed between two contrasting seasons (dry and wet). During the dry season high soil VWC was associated with high soil CO2 efflux, and during the wet season the emergence of a hot spot of soil CO2 efflux was associated with higher root biomass and leaf area index. These results suggest that sampling designs should accommodate for changes in spatial dependence of measured variables. The spatio-temporal relationships identified in this study are arguably different from temperate ecosystems where the majority of soil CO2 efflux research has been done. This study provides evidence of the complexity of the mechanisms controlling the spatio-temporal variability of soil CO2 efflux in water-limited ecosystems. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hotshots, hot spots, and female preference: exploring lek formation models with a bower-building cichlid fish

In many animals, males congregate in leks that females visit for the sole purpose of mating. We observed male and female behavior on 3 different-sized leks of the bower-building cichlid fish Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus to test predictions of 3 prominent lek models: the "hotshot," "hot spot," and "female preference" models. In this system, we were able to refine these predictions by distinguishing between indirect mate choice, by which females restrict their set of potential mates in the absence of individual male assessment, and direct mate choice, by which females assess males and their territories through dyadic behavioral interactions. On no lek were males holding central territories favored by indirect or direct mate choice, contrary to the prediction of the hotshot model that leks form because inferior males establish territories surrounding hotshot males preferred by females. Average female encounter rate of males increased with lek size, a pattern typically interpreted as evidence that leks form through female preference for lekking males, rather than because males congregate in hot spots of high female density. Female propensity to engage in premating behavior once courted did not increase with lek size, suggesting female preference for males on larger leks operated through indirect choice rather than direct choice based on individual assessment. The frequency of male-male competitive interactions increased with lek size, whereas their foraging rate decreased, implying a cost to males maintaining territories on larger leks. Together these data most strongly support the female preference model, where females may benefit through indirect mate choice for males able to meet the competitive cost of occupying larger leks.

Dealing in practice with hot-spots

The hot-spot phenomenon is a relatively frequent problem in current photovoltaic generators. It entails both a risk for the photovoltaic module's lifetime and a decrease in its operational efficiency. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of widely accepted procedures for dealing with them in practice. This paper presents the IES UPM observations on 200 affected modules. Visual and infrared inspection, electroluminescence, peak power and operating voltage tests have been accomplished. Hot-spot observation procedures and well defined acceptance and rejection criteria are proposed, addressing both the lifetime and the operational efficiency of the modules. The operating voltage has come out as the best parameter to control effective efficiency losses for the affected modules. This procedure is oriented to its possible application in contractual frameworks.

Experimental observations on hot-spots and derived

The hot-spot phenomenon is a relatively frequent problem occurring in current photovoltaic generators. It entails both a risk for the photovoltaic module’s lifetime and a decrease in its operational efficiency. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of widely accepted procedures for dealing with them in practice. This paper presents the IES–UPM observations on 200 affected photovoltaic modules. Visual and infrared inspection, as well as electroluminescence, peak power rating and operating voltage tests have been carried out. Thermography under steady state conditions and photovoltaic module operating voltage, both at normal photovoltaic system operating conditions, are the selected methods to deal in practice with hot-spots. The temperature difference between the hot-spot and its surroundings, and the operating voltage differences between affected and non-affected photovoltaic modules are the base for establishing defective criteria, at the lights of both lifetime and operating efficiency considerations. Hot-spots temperature gradients larger than 20 °C, in any case, and larger than 10 °C when, at the same time, voltage operating losses are larger than the allowable power losses fixed at the photovoltaic module warranties, are proposed as rejecting conditions for routine inspections under contractual frameworks. The upper threshold of 20 °C is deduced for temperate climates from the basic criterion of keeping absolute hot-spot temperatures below 20 °C.

Transgene organization in rice engineered through direct DNA transfer supports a two-phase integration mechanism mediated by the establishment of integration hot spots

Organization of transgenes in rice transformed through direct DNA transfer strongly suggests a two-phase integration mechanism. In the “preintegration” phase, transforming plasmid molecules (either intact or partial) are spliced together. This gives rise to rearranged transgenic sequences, which upon integration do not contain any interspersed plant genomic sequences. Subsequently, integration of transgenic DNA into the host genome is initiated. Our experiments suggest that the original site of integration acts as a hot spot, facilitating subsequent integration of successive transgenic molecules at the same locus. The resulting transgenic locus may have plant DNA separating the transgenic sequences. Our data indicate that transformation through direct DNA transfer, specifically particle bombardment, generally results in a single transgenic locus as a result of this two-phase integration mechanism. Transgenic plants generated through such processes may, therefore, be more amenable to breeding programs as the single transgenic locus will be easier to characterize genetically. Results from direct DNA transfer experiments suggest that in the absence of protein factors involved in exogenous DNA transfer through Agrobacterium, the qualitative and/or quantitative efficiency of transformation events is not compromised. Our results cast doubt on the role of Agrobacterium vir genes in the integration process.

Observation of crack initiation during hot tearing

While the general mechanisms of hot tearing are understood, i.e. the inability of liquid to feed imposed strain on the mushy material, work continues on improving the understanding of the mechanisms at play. A hot tear test rig that measures the temperature and load imposed on the mushy zone during solidification has been successfully used to study hot tearing. The mould has now been modified to incorporate a window above the hot spot region to allow observation of hot tear formation and growth. Combining information from visual observation with load and temperature data has led to a better understanding of the mechanism of hot tearing. Tests were carried out on an Al-0.5 wt-% Cu alloy. It was found that load development began at about 90% solid and a hot tear formed a short time later, at between 93% and 96% solid. Hot tearing started at a very low load.

Streamlining local government : evaluating an eGovernment initiative in south east Queensland

Recent initiatives around the world have highlighted the potential for information and communications technology (ICT) to foster better service delivery for businesses. Likewise, ICT has also been applied to government services and is seen to result in improved service delivery, improved citizen participation in government, and enhanced cooperation across government departments and between government departments. The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) (2006) identified local government development assessment (DA) arrangements as a ‘hot spot’ needing specific attention, as the inconsistent policies and regulations between councils impeded regional economic activity. COAG (2006) specifically suggested that trials of various ICT mechanisms be initiated which may well be able to improve DA processes for local government. While the authors have explored various regulatory mechanisms to improve harmonisation elsewhere (Brown and Furneaux 2007), the possibility of ICT being able to enhance consistency across governments is a novel notion from a public policy perspective. Consequently, this paper will explore the utility of ICT initiatives to improve harmonisation of DA across local governments. This paper examines as a case study the recent attempt to streamline Development Assessment (DA) in local governments in South East Queensland. This initiative was funded by the Regulation Reduction Incentive Fund (RRIF), and championed by the South East Queensland (SEQ) Council of Mayors. The Regulation Reduction Incentive Fund (RRIF) program was created by the Australian government with the aim to provide incentives to local councils to reduce red tape for small and medium sized businesses. The funding for the program was facilitated through a competitive merit-based grants process targeted at Local Government Authorities. Grants were awarded to projects which targeted specific areas identified for reform (AusIndustry, 2007), in SEQ this focused around improving DA processes and creating transparency in environmental health policies, regulation and compliance. An important key factor to note with this case study is that it is unusual for an eGovernment initiative. Typically individual government departments undertake eGovernment projects in order to improve their internal performance. The RRIF case study examines the implementation of an eGovernment initiative across 21 autonomous local councils in South East Queensland. In order to move ahead, agreement needed to be reached between councils at the highest level. Having reviewed the concepts of eGovernment and eGovernance, the literature review is undertaken to identify the typical cost and benefits, barriers and enablers of ICT projects in government. The specific case of the RRIF project is then examined to determine if similar costs and benefits, barriers and enablers could be found in the RRIF project. The outcomes of the project, particularly in reducing red tape by increasing harmonisation between councils are explored.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part II : Model updating and verification

This paper is a continuation of the paper titled “Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructure for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part I: Modeling methodology and strategy” with the emphasis on model updating and verification for the developed concurrent multi-scale model. The sensitivity-based parameter updating method was applied and some important issues such as selection of reference data and model parameters, and model updating procedures on the multi-scale model were investigated based on the sensitivity analysis of the selected model parameters. The experimental modal data as well as static response in terms of component nominal stresses and hot-spot stresses at the concerned locations were used for dynamic response- and static response-oriented model updating, respectively. The updated multi-scale model was further verified to act as the baseline model which is assumed to be finite-element model closest to the real situation of the structure available for the subsequent arbitrary numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static responses between the calculated results by the final model and measured data indicated the updating and verification methods applied in this paper are reliable and accurate for the multi-scale model of frame-like structure. The general procedures of multi-scale model updating and verification were finally proposed for nonlinear physical-based modeling of large civil infrastructure, and it was applied to the model verification of a long-span bridge as an actual engineering practice of the proposed procedures.

View from a bridge : what makes a musical city

The attention paid by the British music press in 1976 to the release of The Saints first single “I’m Stranded” was the trigger for a commercial and academic interest in the Brisbane music scene which still has significant energy. In 2007, Brisbane was identifed by Billboard Magazine as a “hot spot” of independent music. A place to watch. Someone turned a torch on this town, had a quick look, moved on. But this town has always had music in it. Some of it made by me. So, I’m taking this connection of mine, and working it into a contextual historical analysis of the creative lives of Brisbane musicians. I will be interviewing a number of Brisbane musicians. These interviews have begun, and will continue to be be conducted in 2011/2012. I will ask questions and pursue memories that will encompass family, teenage years, siblings, the suburbs, the city, venues, television and radio; but then widen to welcome the river, the hills and mountains, foes and friends, beliefs and death. The wider research will be a contextual historical analysis of the creative lives of Brisbane musicians. It will explore the changing nature of their work practices over time and will consider the notion, among other factors, of ‘place’ in both their creative practice and their creative output. It will also examine how the presence of the practitioners and their work is seen to contribute to the cultural life of the city and the creative lives of its citizens into the future. This paper offers an analysis of this last notion: how does this city see its music-makers? In addition to the interviews, over 300 Brisbane musicians were surveyed in September 2009 as part of a QUT-initiated recorded music event (BIGJAM). Their responses will inform the production of this paper.