Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Regional flood frequency analysis for Newfoundland and Labrador using the L-Moments index-flood method

The L-moments based index-flood procedure had been successfully applied for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) for the Island of Newfoundland in 2002 using data up to 1998. This thesis, however, considered both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland using the L-Moments index-flood method with flood data up to 2013. For Labrador, the homogeneity test showed that Labrador can be treated as a single homogeneous region and the generalized extreme value (GEV) was found to be more robust than any other frequency distributions. The drainage area (DA) is the only significant variable for estimating the index-flood at ungauged sites in Labrador. In previous studies, the Island of Newfoundland has been considered as four homogeneous regions (A,B,C and D) as well as two Water Survey of Canada's Y and Z sub-regions. Homogeneous regions based on Y and Z was found to provide more accurate quantile estimates than those based on four homogeneous regions. Goodness-of-fit test results showed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is most suitable for the sub-regions; however, the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) gave a better performance in terms of robustness. The best fitting regional frequency distribution from 2002 has now been updated with the latest flood data, but quantile estimates with the new data were not very different from the previous study. Overall, in terms of quantile estimation, in both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland, the index-flood procedure based on L-moments is highly recommended as it provided consistent and more accurate result than other techniques such as the regression on quantile technique that is currently used by the government.

Active Foreground Region Extraction and Tracking for Sports Video Annotation

Automatic video segmentation plays a vital role in sports videos annotation. This paper presents a fully automatic and computationally efficient algorithm for analysis of sports videos. Various methods of automatic shot boundary detection have been proposed to perform automatic video segmentation. These investigations mainly concentrate on detecting fades and dissolves for fast processing of the entire video scene without providing any additional feedback on object relativity within the shots. The goal of the proposed method is to identify regions that perform certain activities in a scene. The model uses some low-level feature video processing algorithms to extract the shot boundaries from a video scene and to identify dominant colours within these boundaries. An object classification method is used for clustering the seed distributions of the dominant colours to homogeneous regions. Using a simple tracking method a classification of these regions to active or static is performed. The efficiency of the proposed framework is demonstrated over a standard video benchmark with numerous types of sport events and the experimental results show that our algorithm can be used with high accuracy for automatic annotation of active regions for sport videos.

Transverse Vibrations in Beams Supported by a Piece-Wise Homogeneous Visco- Elastic Foundation

Transversal vibrations induced by a load moving uniformly along an infinite beam resting on a piece-wise homogeneous visco-elastic foundation are studied. Special attention is paid to the additional vibrations, conventionally referred to as transition radiations, which arise as the point load traverses the place of foundation discontinuity. The governing equations of the problem are solved by the normalmode analysis. The solution is expressed in a form of infinite sum of orthogonal natural modes multiplied by the generalized coordinate of displacement. The natural frequencies are obtained numerically exploiting the concept of the global dynamic stiffness matrix. This ensures that the frequencies obtained are exact. The methodology has restrictions neither on velocity nor on damping. The approach looks simple, though, the numerical expression of the results is not straightforward. A general procedure for numerical implementation is presented and verified. To illustrate the utility of the methodology parametric optimization is presented and influence of the load mass is studied. The results obtained have direct application in analysis of railway track vibrations induced by high-speed trains when passing regions with significantly different foundation stiffness.

Independent evolution of hypervariable regions of HIV-1 gp120: V4 as a swarm of N-Linked glycosylation variants

In this study we have characterized intra-patient length polymorphism in V4 by cloning and sequencing a C2-C4 fragment from HIV plasma RNA in patients at different stages of HIV disease. Clonal analysis of clade B, G, and CRF02 isolates during early infection shows extensive intra-patient V4 variability, due to the presence of indel-associated polymorphism. Indels, coupled to amino acid substitution events, affect the number and distribution of potential N-glycosylation sites, resulting in the coexistence, within the same patient, of V4 subsets, each characterized by different sizes, amino acid sequences, and potential N-glycosylation patterns. In contrast, V3 appears to be relatively homogeneous, with similar V3 associated to significantly different V4 within the same clinical specimen. Based on these data, we propose that during early chronic infection V4 is present as a highly divergent quasispecies, enabling the virus to adopt different conformational structures according to immune constrains and other selective pressures

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: I. spatial analysis

The spatial variability of strongly weathered soils under sugarcane and soybean/wheat rotation was quantitatively assessed on 33 fields in two regions in São Paulo State, Brazil: Araras (15 fields with sugarcane) and Assis (11 fields with sugarcane and seven fields with soybean/wheat rotation). Statistical methods used were: nested analysis of variance (for 11 fields), semivariance analysis and analysis of variance within and between fields. Spatial levels from 50 m to several km were analyzed. Results are discussed with reference to a previously published study carried out in the surroundings of Passo Fundo (RS). Similar variability patterns were found for clay content, organic C content and cation exchange capacity. The fields studied are quite homogeneous with respect to these relatively stable soil characteristics. Spatial variability of other characteristics (resin extractable P, pH, base- and Al-saturation and also soil colour), varies with region and, or land use management. Soil management for sugarcane seems to have induced modifications to greater depths than for soybean/wheat rotation. Surface layers of soils under soybean/wheat present relatively little variation, apparently as a result of very intensive soil management. The major part of within-field variation occurs at short distances (< 50 m) in all study areas. Hence, little extra information would be gained by increasing sampling density from, say, 1/km² to 1/50 m². For many purposes, the soils in the study regions can be mapped with the same observation density, but residual variance will not be the same in all areas. Bulk sampling may help to reveal spatial patterns between 50 and 1.000 m.

Variability of apparently homogeneous soilscapes in São Paulo state, Brazil: II. quality of soil maps

The quality of semi-detailed (scale 1:100.000) soil maps and the utility of a taxonomically based legend were assessed by studying 33 apparently homogeneous fields with strongly weathered soils in two regions in São Paulo State: Araras and Assis. An independent data set of 395 auger sites was used to determine purity of soil mapping units and analysis of variance within and between mapping units and soil classification units. Twenty three soil profiles were studied in detail. The studied soil maps have a high purity for some legend criteria, such as B horizon type (> 90%) and soil texture class (> 80%). The purity for the "trophic character" (eutrophic, dystrophic, allic) was only 55% in Assis. It was 88% in Araras, where many soil units had been mapped as associations. In both regions, the base status of clay-textured soils was generally better than suggested by the maps. Analysis of variance showed that mapping was successful for "durable" soil characteristics such as clay content (> 80% of variance explained) and cation exchange capacity (≥ 50% of variance explained) of 0-20 and 60-80 cm layers. For soil characteristics that are easily modified by management, such as base saturation of the 0-20 cm layer, the maps had explained very little (< 15%) of the total variance in the study areas. Intermediate results were obtained for base saturation of the 60-80 cm layer (56% in Assis; 42% in Araras). Variance explained by taxonomic groupings that formed the basis for the legend of the soil maps was similar to, often even smaller than, variance explained by mapping units. The conclusion is that map boundaries have been very carefully located, but descriptions of mapping units could be improved. In future mappings, this could possibly be done at low cost by (a) bulk sampling to remove short range variation and enhance visualization of spatial patterns at distances > 100 m; (b) taking advantage of correlations between easily measured soil characteristics and chemical soil properties and, (c) unbending the link between legend criteria and a taxonomic system. The maps are well suited to obtain an impression of land suitability for high-input farming. Additional field work and data on former land use/management are necessary for the evaluation of chemical properties of surface horizons.

Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.

Homogeneous middles vs. heterogeneous tails, and the end of the ‘Inverted-U’: the share of the rich is what it’s all about

This paper examines the current global scene of distributional disparities within-nations. There are six main conclusions. First, about 80 per cent of the world’s population now live in regions whose median country has a Gini not far from 40. Second, as outliers are now only located among middle-income and rich countries, the ‘upwards’ side of the ‘Inverted-U’ between inequality and income per capita has evaporated (and with it the statistical support there was for the hypothesis that posits that, for whatever reason, ‘things have to get worse before they can get better’). Third, among middle-income countries Latin America and mineral-rich Southern Africa are uniquely unequal, while Eastern Europe follows a distributional path similar to the Nordic countries. Fourth, among rich countries there is a large (and growing) distributional diversity. Fifth, within a global trend of rising inequality, there are two opposite forces at work. One is ‘centrifugal’, and leads to an increased diversity in the shares appropriated by the top 10 and bottom 40 per cent. The other is ‘centripetal’, and leads to a growing uniformity in the income-share appropriated by deciles 5 to 9. Therefore, half of the world’s population (the middle and upper-middle classes) have acquired strong ‘property rights’ over half of their respective national incomes; the other half, however, is increasingly up for grabs between the very rich and the poor. And sixth, Globalisation is thus creating a distributional scenario in which what really matters is the income-share of the rich — because the rest ‘follows’ (middle classes able to defend their shares, and workers with ever more precarious jobs in ever more ‘flexible’ labour markets). Therefore, anybody attempting to understand the within-nations disparity of inequality should always be reminded of this basic distributional fact following the example of Clinton’s campaign strategist: by sticking a note on their notice-boards saying “It’s the share of the rich, stupid”.

Environmental heterogeneity: Anuran diversity in homogeneous environments

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Collision and Stable Regions around Bodies with Simple Geometric Shape

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Numerical study of homogeneous and heterogeneous crystal nucleation in colloidal systems

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Computersimulationen von Keimbildungs- und Kris\-tallisationsprozessen in rnkolloidalen Systemen durchgef\"uhrt. rnEine Kombination von Monte-Carlo-Simulationsmethoden und der Forward-Flux-Sampling-Technik wurde rnimplementiert, um die homogene und heterogene Nukleation von Kristallen monodisperser Hart\-kugeln zu untersuchen. rnIm m\"a\ss{ig} unterk\"uhlten Bulk-Hartkugelsystem sagen wir die homogenen Nukleationsraten voraus und rnvergleichen die Resultate mit anderen theoretischen Ergebnissen und experimentellen Daten. rnWeiterhin analysieren wir die kristallinen Cluster in den Keimbildungs- und Wachstumszonen, rnwobei sich herausstellt, dass kristalline Cluster sich in unterschiedlichen Formen im System bilden. rnKleine Cluster sind eher l\"anglich in eine beliebige Richtung ausgedehnt, w\"ahrend gr\"o\ss{ere} rnCluster kompakter und von ellipsoidaler Gestalt sind. rn rnIm n\"achsten Teil untersuchen wir die heterogene Keimbildung an strukturierten bcc (100)-W\"anden. rnDie 2d-Analyse der kristallinen Schichten an der Wand zeigt, dass die Struktur der rnWand eine entscheidende Rolle in der Kristallisation von Hartkugelkolloiden spielt. rnWir sagen zudem die heterogenen Kristallbildungsraten bei verschiedenen \"Ubers\"attigungsgraden voraus. rnDurch Analyse der gr\"o\ss{ten} Cluster an der Wand sch\"atzen wir zus\"atzlich den Kontaktwinkel rnzwischen Kristallcluster und Wand ab. rnEs stellt sich heraus, dass wir in solchen Systemen weit von der Benetzungsregion rnentfernt sind und der Kristallisationsprozess durch heterogene Nukleation stattfindet. rn rnIm letzten Teil der Arbeit betrachten wir die Kristallisation von Lennard-Jones-Kolloidsystemen rnzwischen zwei ebenen W\"anden. rnUm die Erstarrungsprozesse f\"ur ein solches System zu untersuchen, haben wir eine Analyse des rnOrdnungsparameters f\"ur die Bindung-Ausrichtung in den Schichten durchgef\"urt. rnDie Ergebnisse zeigen, dass innerhalb einer Schicht keine hexatische Ordnung besteht, rnwelche auf einen Kosterlitz-Thouless-Schmelzvorgang hinweisen w\"urde. rnDie Hysterese in den Erhitzungs-Gefrier\-kurven zeigt dar\"uber hinaus, dass der Kristallisationsprozess rneinen aktivierten Prozess darstellt.

Carbon storage versus albedo change: radiative forcing of forest expansion in temperate mountainous regions of Switzerland

In this study, we assess the climate mitigation potential from afforestation in a mountainous snow-rich region (Switzerland) with strongly varying environmental conditions. Using radiative forcing calculations, we quantify both the carbon sequestration potential and the effect of albedo change at high resolution. We calculate the albedo radiative forcing based on remotely sensed data sets of albedo, global radiation and snow cover. Carbon sequestration is estimated from changes in carbon stocks based on national inventories. We first estimate the spatial pattern of radiative forcing (RF) across Switzerland assuming homogeneous transitions from open land to forest. This highlights where forest expansion still exhibits climatic benefits when including the radiative forcing of albedo change. Second, given that forest expansion is currently the dominant land-use change process in the Swiss Alps, we calculate the radiative forcing that occurred between 1985 and 1997. Our results show that the net RF of forest expansion ranges from −24 W m−2 at low elevations of the northern Prealps to 2 W m−2 at high elevations of the Central Alps. The albedo RF increases with increasing altitude, which offsets the CO2 RF at high elevations with long snow-covered periods, high global radiation and low carbon sequestration. Albedo RF is particularly relevant during transitions from open land to open forest but not in later stages of forest development. Between 1985 and 1997, when overall forest expansion in Switzerland was approximately 4%, the albedo RF offset the CO2 RF by an average of 40%. We conclude that the albedo RF should be considered at an appropriately high resolution when estimating the climatic effect of forestation in temperate mountainous regions.

Phylogenetics, Ancestral State Reconstruction, And A New Infrafamilial Classification Of The Pantropical Ochnaceae (medusagynaceae, Ochnaceae S.str., Quiinaceae) Based On Five Dna Regions.

Ochnaceae s.str. (Malpighiales) are a pantropical family of about 500 species and 27 genera of almost exclusively woody plants. Infrafamilial classification and relationships have been controversial partially due to the lack of a robust phylogenetic framework. Including all genera except Indosinia and Perissocarpa and DNA sequence data for five DNA regions (ITS, matK, ndhF, rbcL, trnL-F), we provide for the first time a nearly complete molecular phylogenetic analysis of Ochnaceae s.l. resolving most of the phylogenetic backbone of the family. Based on this, we present a new classification of Ochnaceae s.l., with Medusagynoideae and Quiinoideae included as subfamilies and the former subfamilies Ochnoideae and Sauvagesioideae recognized at the rank of tribe. Our data support a monophyletic Ochneae, but Sauvagesieae in the traditional circumscription is paraphyletic because Testulea emerges as sister to the rest of Ochnoideae, and the next clade shows Luxemburgia+Philacra as sister group to the remaining Ochnoideae. To avoid paraphyly, we classify Luxemburgieae and Testuleeae as new tribes. The African genus Lophira, which has switched between subfamilies (here tribes) in past classifications, emerges as sister to all other Ochneae. Thus, endosperm-free seeds and ovules with partly to completely united integuments (resulting in an apparently single integument) are characters that unite all members of that tribe. The relationships within its largest clade, Ochnineae (former Ochneae), are poorly resolved, but former Ochninae (Brackenridgea, Ochna) are polyphyletic. Within Sauvagesieae, the genus Sauvagesia in its broad circumscription is polyphyletic as Sauvagesia serrata is sister to a clade of Adenarake, Sauvagesia spp., and three other genera. Within Quiinoideae, in contrast to former phylogenetic hypotheses, Lacunaria and Touroulia form a clade that is sister to Quiina. Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions showed that zygomorphic flowers with adaptations to buzz-pollination (poricidal anthers), a syncarpous gynoecium (a near-apocarpous gynoecium evolved independently in Quiinoideae and Ochninae), numerous ovules, septicidal capsules, and winged seeds with endosperm are the ancestral condition in Ochnoideae. Although in some lineages poricidal anthers were lost secondarily, the evolution of poricidal superstructures secured the maintenance of buzz-pollination in some of these genera, indicating a strong selective pressure on keeping that specialized pollination system.

[why Does The Prevalence Of Cytopathological Results Of Cervical Cancer Screening Can Vary Significantly Between Two Regions Of Brazil?].

To analyze the prevalence of cervical cytopathological results for the screening of cervical cancer with regard to women's age and time since the last examination in Maceió and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, among those assisted by the Brazilian Unified Health System. Cervical cytopathological results available in the Information System of Cervical Cancer Screening for the year 2011 were analyzed, corresponding to 206,550 for Rio de Janeiro and 45,243 for Maceió. In Rio de Janeiro, examination at one and two year intervals predominated, while in Maceió examination at one and three year intervals had a higher predominance. Women who underwent cervical smear screening in Maceió were older than those in Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence of invasive squamous cell carcinoma was similar for the two cities, but all the other results presented a higher prevalence in Rio de Janeiro: ASCUS (PR=5.32; 95%CI 4.66-6.07); ASCH (PR=4.27; 95%CI 3.15-5.78); atypical glandular cells (PR=10.02; 95%CI 5.66-17.76); low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=6.10; 95%CI 5.27-7.07); high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=8.90; 95%CI 6.50-12.18) and adenocarcinoma (PR=3.00; 95%CI 1.21-7.44). The rate of unsatisfactory cervical samples was two times higher in Maceió and that of rejected samples for analysis was five times higher in Maceió when compared to Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence rates of altered cervical cytopathological results was significantly higher in Rio de Janeiro than in Maceió. There is no objective information that may justify this difference. One hypothesis is that there may be a difference in the diagnostic performance of the cervical cancer screening, which could be related to the quality of the Pap smear. Thus, these findings suggest that it would be necessary to perform this evaluation at national level, with emphasis on the performance of cervical cancer screening in order to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control.