Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

International Grassland Congress Outlook: An historical review and future expectations

Features of the history of the International Grassland Congress are mentioned. Aspects of a number of failed themes in grassland science are described with respect to molecular biology, intensive systems of ruminant production, carbohydrate use in plant growth, plant succession and range condition, and stocking method. Future expectations are focused on meeting a balance of objectives, maintaining reductionist science, taking new initiatives in plant improvement and in the development of animal production systems, and reducing barriers to international trade. The adoption of grassland science depends upon the growth of new learning, especially through cyclical interaction between scientists and farmers.

Expectations of the effects of drinking on couple relationship functioning: An assessment of women in distressed relationships who consume alcohol at harmful levels

Based on a cognitive-social learning model of alcohol use, it was hypothesised that women with both alcohol and relationship problems would endorse more positive expectations of the effects of alcohol consumption on their relationship and would report lower relational efficacy than women without relationship or alcohol problems. Measures of relationship-referent alcohol expectancies and relational efficacy were completed by 174 married women with both alcohol and relationship problems (n = 20), alcohol problems alone (it = 26), relationship problems alone (n = 30), or neither problem (n = 98). Women without either alcohol or relationship problems strongly rejected expectations of enhanced relationship functioning (e.g., enhanced intimacy, increased emotional expression) following alcohol consumption, whereas women with both alcohol and relationship problems were ambivalent about these positive expectations. Women with both problems also reported lower relational efficacy than the other groups of women. Negative expectations about the effect of alcohol consumption on relationships in women with low relational efficacy may inhibit harmful drinking. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signal trait sexual dimorphism and mutual sexual selection in Drosophila serrata

The evolution of sexual dimorphism may occur when natural and sexual selection result in different optimum trait values for males and females. Perhaps the most prominent examples of sexual dimorphism occur in sexually selected traits, for which males usually display exaggerated trait levels, while females may show reduced expression of the trait. In some species, females also exhibit secondary sexual traits that may either be a consequence of a correlated response to sexual selection on males or direct sexual selection for female secondary sexual traits. In this experiment, we simultaneously measure the intersex genetic correlations and the relative strength of sexual selection on males and females for a set of cuticular hydrocarbons in Drosophila serrata. There was significant directional sexual selection on both male and female cuticular hydrocarbons: the strength of sexual selection did not differ among the sexes but males and females preferred different cuticular hydrocarbons. In contrast with many previous studies of sexual dimorphism, intersex genetic correlations were low. The evolution of sexual dimorphism in D. serrata appears to have been achieved by sex-limited expression of traits controlled by genes on the X chromosome and is likely to be in its final stages.

Quando uma den??ncia an??nima feita ?? Ouvidoria vira amea??a ao denunciante

A Ouvidoria do Ibama recebeu den??ncia sobre venda ilegal de madeiras no Maranh??o. Apesar de a den??ncia ter sido an??nima, por falha dos agentes de fiscaliza????o, os donos da empresa que atuava ilegalmente descobriram que a den??ncia havia partido de cidad??o da comunidade vizinha e come??ou a amea??ar a vizinhan??a. A Ouvidoria recebeu mensagens de rep??dio ao fato de o ??rg??o ter exposto a comunidade a tais amea??as, o que gerou contato com o setor de fiscaliza????o. O caso trata da quest??o da den??ncia an??nima nas ouvidorias e de como ?? preciso atuar para que sejam preservados os cidad??os que colaboram com esses ??rg??os. O estudo pode ser aplicado em cursos com enfoque em quest??es vinculadas ?? ??tica, media????o de conflitos e atendimento ao cidad??o

Conditioning information in mutual fund performance evaluation: Portuguese evidence

We estimate and compare the performance of Portuguese-based mutual funds that invest in the domestic market and in the European market using unconditional and conditional models of performance evaluation. Besides applying both partial and full conditional models, we use European information variables, instead of the most common local ones, and consider stochastically detrended conditional variables in order to avoid spurious regressions. The results suggest that mutual fund managers are not able to outperform the market, presenting negative or neutral performance. The incorporation of conditioning information in performance evaluation models is supported by our findings, as it improves the explanatory power of the models and there is evidence of both time-varying betas and alphas related to the public information variables. It is also shown that the number of lags to be used in the stochastic detrending procedure is a critical choice, as it will impact the significance of the conditioning information. In addition, we observe a distance effect, since managers who invest locally seem to outperform those who invest in the European market. However, after controlling for public information, this effect is slightly reduced. Furthermore, the results suggest that survivorship bias has a small impact on performance estimates.

Jardim do Éden revisitado

Análise do mito de Lilith, primeira esposa de Adão, segundo a tradição judaica, que foi expurgada do texto, hoje conhecido, pela censura dos editores bíblicos que procuraram adequar o livro sagrado aos valores e padrões morais de suas épocas. O Autor mostra que esses cortes não foram suficientes para apagar totalmente a figura de Lilith da tradição oral e, muito menos, de alguns textos rabínicos. No decorrer deste mito fica claro que, ao consumir o fruto proibido, Adão adquiriu o conhecimento do bem e do mal e não apenas o da sexualidade. Mas, o mais importante é o fato que Lilith representa a primeira reação feminina ao domínio masculino.

As políticas e práticas culturais no seio da Rede Nacional de Teatros e Cineteatros

Artigo baseado na comunicação proferida no 7º Congresso SOPCOM: Comunicação Global, Cultura e Tecnologia, realizado na Faculdade de Letras da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal, 15 -17 dezembro de 2011

Analysis and visualization of seismic data using mutual information

Seismic data is difficult to analyze and classical mathematical tools reveal strong limitations in exposing hidden relationships between earthquakes. In this paper, we study earthquake phenomena in the perspective of complex systems. Global seismic data, covering the period from 1962 up to 2011 is analyzed. The events, characterized by their magnitude, geographic location and time of occurrence, are divided into groups, either according to the Flinn-Engdahl (F-E) seismic regions of Earth or using a rectangular grid based in latitude and longitude coordinates. Two methods of analysis are considered and compared in this study. In a first method, the distributions of magnitudes are approximated by Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distributions and the parameters used to reveal the relationships among regions. In the second method, the mutual information is calculated and adopted as a measure of similarity between regions. In both cases, using clustering analysis, visualization maps are generated, providing an intuitive and useful representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic data. Such relationships might not be perceived on classical geographic maps. Therefore, the generated charts are a valid alternative to other visualization tools, for understanding the global behavior of earthquakes.

Scheduling sporadic tasks on multiprocessors with mutual exclusion constraints

Consider the problem of scheduling sporadic tasks on a multiprocessor platform under mutual exclusion constraints. We present an approach which appears promising for allowing large amounts of parallel task executions and still ensures low amounts of blocking.