Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Using the Gini coefficient with BIOLOG substrate utilisation data to provide an alternative quantitative measure for comparing bacterial soil communities

A measure quantifying unequal use of carbon sources, the Gini coefficient (G), has been developed to allow comparisons of the observed functional diversity of bacterial soil communities. This approach was applied to the analysis of substrate utilisation data obtained from using BIOLOG microtiter plates in a study which compared decomposition processes in two contrasting plant substrates in two different soils. The relevance of applying the Gini coefficient as a measure of observed functional diversity, for soil bacterial communities is evaluated against the Shannon index (H) and average well colour development (AWCD), a measure of the total microbial activity. Correlation analysis and analysis of variance of the experimental data show that the Gini coefficient, the Shannon index and AWCD provided similar information when used in isolation. However, analyses based on the Gini coefficient and the Shannon index, when total activity on the microtiter plates was maintained constant (i.e. AWCD as a covariate), indicate that additional information about the distribution of carbon sources being utilised can be obtained. We demonstrate that the Lorenz curve and its measure of inequality, the Gini coefficient, provides not only comparable information to AWCD and the Shannon index but when used together with AWCD encompasses measures of total microbial activity and absorbance inequality across all the carbon sources. This information is especially relevant for comparing the observed functional diversity of soil microbial communities.

What does it mean to 'securitize' infectious diseases?

This paper seeks to explain how the selective securitization of infectious disease arose, and to analyze the policy successes from this move. It is argued that despite some success, such as the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, there remain serious deficiencies in the political outputs from the securitization of infectious disease.

Interacting motile agents : taking a mean-field approach beyond monomers and nearest-neighbor steps

We consider a discrete agent-based model on a one-dimensional lattice, where each agent occupies L sites and attempts movements over a distance of d lattice sites. Agents obey a strict simple exclusion rule. A discrete-time master equation is derived using a mean-field approximation and careful probability arguments. In the continuum limit, nonlinear diffusion equations that describe the average agent occupancy are obtained. Averaged discrete simulation data are generated and shown to compare very well with the solution to the derived nonlinear diffusion equations. This framework allows us to approach a lattice-free result using all the advantages of lattice methods. Since different cell types have different shapes and speeds of movement, this work offers insight into population-level behavior of collective cellular motion.

Decision support system for age-related macular degeneration using discrete wavelet transform

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) affects the central vision and subsequently may lead to visual loss in people over 60 years of age. There is no permanent cure for AMD, but early detection and successive treatment may improve the visual acuity. AMD is mainly classified into dry and wet type; however, dry AMD is more common in aging population. AMD is characterized by drusen, yellow pigmentation, and neovascularization. These lesions are examined through visual inspection of retinal fundus images by ophthalmologists. It is laborious, time-consuming, and resource-intensive. Hence, in this study, we have proposed an automated AMD detection system using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and feature ranking strategies. The first four-order statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis), energy, entropy, and Gini index-based features are extracted from DWT coefficients. We have used five (t test, Kullback–Lieber Divergence (KLD), Chernoff Bound and Bhattacharyya Distance, receiver operating characteristics curve-based, and Wilcoxon) feature ranking strategies to identify optimal feature set. A set of supervised classifiers namely support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, k -nearest neighbor ( k -NN), Naive Bayes, and probabilistic neural network were used to evaluate the highest performance measure using minimum number of features in classifying normal and dry AMD classes. The proposed framework obtained an average accuracy of 93.70 %, sensitivity of 91.11 %, and specificity of 96.30 % using KLD ranking and SVM classifier. We have also formulated an AMD Risk Index using selected features to classify the normal and dry AMD classes using one number. The proposed system can be used to assist the clinicians and also for mass AMD screening programs.

Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

The effect of using different regions of interest on local and mean skin temperature

The dynamic nature of tissue temperature and the subcutaneous properties, such as blood flow, fatness, and metabolic rate, leads to variation in local skin temperature. Therefore, we investigated the effects of using multiple regions of interest when calculating weighted mean skin temperature from four local sites. Twenty-six healthy males completed a single trial in a thermonetural laboratory (mean ± SD): 24.0 (1.2) °C; 56 (8%) relative humidity; < 0.1 m/s air speed). Mean skin temperature was calculated from four local sites (neck, scapula, hand and shin) in accordance with International Standards using digital infrared thermography. A 50 x 50 mm square, defined by strips of aluminium tape, created six unique regions of interest, top left quadrant, top right quadrant, bottom left quadrant, bottom right quadrant, centre quadrant and the entire region of interest, at each of the local sites. The largest potential error in weighted mean skin temperature was calculated using a combination of a) the coolest and b) the warmest regions of interest at each of the local sites. Significant differences between the six regions interest were observed at the neck (P < 0.01), scapula (P < 0.001) and shin (P < 0.05); but not at the hand (P = 0.482). The largest difference (± SEM) at each site was as follows: neck 0.2 (0.1) °C; scapula 0.2 (0.0) °C; shin 0.1 (0.0) °C and hand 0.1 (0.1) °C. The largest potential error (mean ± SD) in weighted mean skin temperature was 0.4 (0.1) °C (P < 0.001) and the associated 95% limits of agreement for these differences was 0.2 to 0.5 °C. Although we observed differences in local and mean skin temperature based on the region of interest employed, these differences were minimal and are not considered physiologically meaningful.

A comparison between conductive and infrared devices for measuring mean skin temperature at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery

Purpose: Skin temperature assessment has historically been undertaken with conductive devices affixed to the skin. With the development of technology, infrared devices are increasingly utilised in the measurement of skin temperature. Therefore, our purpose was to evaluate the agreement between four skin temperature devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery. Methods: Mean skin temperature (T̅sk) was assessed in thirty healthy males during 30 min rest (24.0± 1.2°C, 56 ± 8%), 30 min cycle in the heat (38.0 ± 0.5°C, 41 ± 2%), and 45 min recovery(24.0 ± 1.3°C, 56 ± 9%). T̅sk was assessed at four sites using two conductive devices(thermistors, iButtons) and two infrared devices (infrared thermometer, infrared camera). Results: Bland–Altman plots demonstrated mean bias ± limits of agreement between the thermistors and iButtons as follows (rest, exercise, recovery): -0.01 ± 0.04, 0.26 ± 0.85, -0.37 ± 0.98°C; thermistors and infrared thermometer: 0.34 ± 0.44, -0.44 ± 1.23, -1.04 ± 1.75°C; thermistors and infrared camera (rest, recovery): 0.83 ± 0.77, 1.88 ± 1.87°C. Pairwise comparisons of T̅sk found significant differences (p < 0.05) between thermistors and both infrared devices during resting conditions, and significant differences between the thermistors and all other devices tested during exercise in the heat and recovery. Conclusions: These results indicate poor agreement between conductive and infrared devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and subsequent recovery. Infrared devices may not be suitable for monitoring T̅sk in the presence of, or following, metabolic and environmental induced heat stress.

Scale adaptive tracking using mean shift and efficient feature matching

The mean shift tracker has achieved great success in visual object tracking due to its efficiency being nonparametric. However, it is still difficult for the tracker to handle scale changes of the object. In this paper, we associate a scale adaptive approach with the mean shift tracker. Firstly, the target in the current frame is located by the mean shift tracker. Then, a feature point matching procedure is employed to get the matched pairs of the feature point between target regions in the current frame and the previous frame. We employ FAST-9 corner detector and HOG descriptor for the feature matching. Finally, with the acquired matched pairs of the feature point, the affine transformation between target regions in the two frames is solved to obtain the current scale of the target. Experimental results show that the proposed tracker gives satisfying results when the scale of the target changes, with a good performance of efficiency.

What does the review of the Australian Curriculum mean for Senior Modern History?

In this paper we briefly explore some of recommendations of the Review of the Australian Curriculum Final Report (Australian Government, 2014a), henceforth referred to as the Review, with reference to Modern History in the senior secondary Australian Curriculum. We also refer to the invited papers provided by history subject matter specialists, Professor Gregory Melleuish and Mr Clive Logan, published as the Review’s Supplementary Material (Australian Government, 2014b). In doing so, we note that both documents devote most of their attention to critiquing the Australian Curriculum: History in the compulsory years from Foundation (F) to Year 10.

Introduction to Point and Counterpoint: What does the Review of the Australian Curriculum mean for History?

The April 2015 edition of Curriculum Perspectives has a special focus and casts light on the continuing development of the Australian Curriculum. This paper provides an introduction to a series of papers in the Point and Counterpoint section of this edition on the Review of the Australian Curriculum with reference to History. It makes clear that History is one of the most contested areas of the curriculum and that whilst politicians and policy makers are concerned with the importance of history in relation to national identity and nation building, history serves other purposes. The paper reiterates the need to pay attention to the particularities of discipline–based knowledge for the study of history in schools and the central role of inquiry for student learning in history. In doing so, it establishes the context for the five papers which follow.

What do Netflix, Stan and Presto mean for Australian TV?

The arrival of subscription video on demand services Netflix, Stan and Presto have implications for what we call "television" in Australia – and much of the policy detail remains to be hammered out.

The US’ trade secrets demands and what they mean for journos

Leaked Trans-Pacific Partnership documents show the US is pushing for unprecedented penalties for those (like journalists) who expose trade secrets. Will Australia go along with the proposal?

Post-transcriptional regulation in the nucleus and cytoplasm: study of mean time to threshold (MTT) and narrow escape problem

Messenger RNAs (mRNAs) can be repressed and degraded by small non-coding RNA molecules. In this paper, we formulate a coarsegrained Markov-chain description of the post-transcriptional regulation of mRNAs by either small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) or microRNAs (miRNAs). We calculate the probability of an mRNA escaping from its domain before it is repressed by siRNAs/miRNAs via cal- culation of the mean time to threshold: when the number of bound siRNAs/miRNAs exceeds a certain threshold value, the mRNA is irreversibly repressed. In some cases,the analysis can be reduced to counting certain paths in a reduced Markov model. We obtain explicit expressions when the small RNA bind irreversibly to the mRNA and we also discuss the reversible binding case. We apply our models to the study of RNA interference in the nucleus, examining the probability of mRNAs escaping via small nuclear pores before being degraded by siRNAs. Using the same modelling framework, we further investigate the effect of small, decoy RNAs (decoys) on the process of post-transcriptional regulation, by studying regulation of the tumor suppressor gene, PTEN : decoys are able to block binding sites on PTEN mRNAs, thereby educing the number of sites available to siRNAs/miRNAs and helping to protect it from repression. We calculate the probability of a cytoplasmic PTEN mRNA translocating to the endoplasmic reticulum before being repressed by miRNAs. We support our results with stochastic simulations