Margetinggeschichte:Die Genese einer modernen Sozialtechnik, Hartmut Berghoff

Book revew: Marketinggeschichte: die Genese einer modernen Sozialtechnik [Marketing history: The genesis of a modern social technique], edited by Hartmut Berghoff, Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag, 2007, 409 pp., illus., [euro]30.00 (paperback), ISBN 978-3-593-38323-1. This edited volume is the result of a workshop at Göttingen University in 2006 and combines a number of different approaches to the research into the history of marketing in Germany's economy and society. The majority of contributions loosely focus around the occurrence of a ‘marketing revolution’ in the 1970s, which ties in with interpretations of the Americanisation of German business. This revolution replaced the indigenous German idea of Absatzwirtschaft (the economics of sales) with the American-influenced idea of Marketing, which was less functionally oriented and more strategic, and which aimed to connect processes within the firm in order to allow a greater focus on the consumer. The entire volume is framed by Hartmut Berghoff's substantial and informative introduction, which introduces a number of actors and trends beyond the content of the volume. Throughout the various contributions, authors provide explanations of the timing and nature of marketing revolutions. Alexander Engel identifies an earlier revolution in the marketing of dyes, which undergoes major change with the emergence of chemical dyes. While the natural dyestuff had been a commodity, with producers removed from consumers via a global network of traders, chemical dyes were products and were branded at an early stage. This was a fundamental change in the nature of production and sales. As Roman Rossfeld shows in his contribution on the Swiss chocolate industry (which focuses almost exclusively on Suchard), even companies that produced non-essential consumer goods which had always required some measure of labelling grappled for years with the need to develop fewer and higher impact brands, as well as an efficient sales operation. A good example for the classical ‘marketing revolution’ of the 1970s is the German automobile industry. Ingo Köhler convincingly argues that the crisis situation of German car manufacturers – the change from a seller's to a buyer's market, appreciation of the German mark which undermines exports, the oil crises coupled with higher inflation and greater frugality of consumers and the emergence of new competitors – lead companies to refocus from production to the demands of the consumer. While he highlights the role of Ford in responding most rapidly to these problems, he does not address whether the multinational was potentially transferring American knowledge to the German market. Similarly, Paul Erker illustrates that a marketing revolution in transport and logistics happened much later, because the market remained highly regulated until the 1980s. Both Paul Erker and Uwe Spiekermann in their contribution, present comparisons of two different sectors or companies (the tire manufacturer Continental and the logistics company Dachser, and agriculture and trade, respectively). In both cases, however, it remains unclear why these examples were chosen for comparison, as both seem to have little in common and are not always effectively used to demonstrate differences. The weakest section of the book is the development of marketing as an academic discipline. The attempt at sketching the phases in the evolution of marketing as an academic discipline by Ursula Hansen and Matthias Bode opens with an undergraduate-level explanation on the methodology of historical periodisation that seems extraneous. Considerably stronger is the section on the wider societal impact of marketing, and Anja Kruke shows how the new techniques of opinion research was accepted by politics and business – surprisingly more readily by politicians than their commercial counterparts. In terms of contemporary personalities, Hans Domizlaff emerges as one fascinating figure of German marketing history, which several contributors refer to and whose career as the German cigarette manufacturer Reemtsma is critically analysed by Tino Jacobs. Domizlaff was Germany's own ‘marketing guru’, whose successful campaigns led to the wide-ranging reception of his ideas about the nature of good branding and marketing. These are variously described as intuitive, elitist, and sachlich, a German concept of a sober, fact-based, and ‘no frills’ approach. Domizlaff did not believe in market research. Rather, he saw the genius of the individual advertiser as key to intuitively ascertaining the people's moods, wishes, and desires. This seems to have made him peculiarly suited to the tastes of the German middle class, according to Thomas Mergel's contribution on the nature of political marketing in the republic. Especially in politics, any form of hard sales tactics were severely frowned upon and considered to demean the citizen as incapable of making an informed choice, a mentality that he dates back to the traditions of nineteenth-century liberalism. Part of this disdain of ‘selling politics like toothpaste’ was also founded on the highly effective use of branding by the National Socialists, who identified their party through the use of an increasingly standardised image of Adolf Hitler and the swastika. Alexander Schug extends on previous research that criticised the simplistic notion of Hitler's charisma as the only explanation of the popular success and distances his approach from those who see it in terms of propaganda and demagogy. He argues that the NSDAP used the tools of advertising and branding precisely because they had to introduce their new ideology into a political marketplace dominated by more established parties. In this they were undoubtedly successful, more so than they intended: as bakers sold swastika cookies and butchers formed Führer heads out of lard, the NSDAP sought to regain control over the now effectively iconic images that constituted their brand, which was in danger of being trivialised and devalued. Key to understanding the history of marketing in Germany is on the one hand the exchange of ideas with the United States, and on the other the impact of national-socialist policies, and the question whether they were a force of modernisation or retardation. The general argument in the volume appears to favour the latter explanation. In the 1930s, some of the leading marketing experts emigrated to the USA, leaving German academia and business isolated. The aftermath of the Second World War left a country that needed to increase production to satisfy consumer demand, and there was little interest in advanced sales techniques. Although the Nazis were progressive in applying new marketing methods to their political campaign, this retarded the adoption of sales techniques in politics for a long time. Germany saw the development of idiosyncratic approaches by people like Domizlaff in the 1930s and 1940s, when it lost some leading thinkers, and only engaged with American marketing conceptions in the 1960s and 1970s, when consumers eventually became more important than producers.

As escolas polivalentes do Triângulo Mineiro e Alto Paranaíba (MG): sondagem vocacional no projeto desenvolvimentista civil-militar (1965–1976)

This study has as object eight state vocational schools located in Araguari, Araxá, Frutal, Ituiutaba, Monte Carmelo, Patos de Minas, Uberaba and Uberlândia, in Minas Gerais. The period analyzed comprises the years from 1965 to 1976, from the signature of the Agreement 512-11-610-042 beteween the Ministry of Education and Culture (MEC) and the American Agency for International Development (USAID), which started a series of other agreements, and actions ending up with the creation of the Expansion and Improvement of High Schools Program (Programa de Expansão e Melhoria do Ensino Médio - PREMEM) and, from this, the Vocational Schools. The upper limit of the study, 1976, was the year when these agreements, known as MEC/USAID agreements ceased. The Vocational Schools were characterized as vocation probing schools, directing the professional formation of the population in general, which would happen a posteriori, turning it shorter and more effective, since the labor market would demand, urgently, capable professionals for an expanding economy. The project of Vocational Schools had a national scope, and foresaw, for its unfolding, the complete substitution of State Schools for the new model, called “multi-curricula”. The theme Vocational schools was the object of my Master’s degree study, when I focused the State School Guiomar de Freitas Costa, in Uberlândia. That study raised questionings and concerns that resulted in the central problem of the thesis presented here: understanding the measure in which such schools integrated the country’s development project – mostly in the first half of the military rule – and to understand its structure, functionality and efficacyThe development of the study presented here, demanded the use of several sources: 1) specialized literature about the topics presented, i.e., the situation of national education in a temporal analysis, the political, economical and social context, research methodologies, the theory of human capital, vocational teaching, pedagogical trends and practices, agreements MEC-USAID and PREMEM; 2) national, state and county laws related to the discussion: laws of national education directives and basis, decrees and reports stating about the program of technical cooperation between Brazil and the United States of America, the Program of Expansion and Improvement of Teaching (PREMEM), formation of professors, establishment of Vocational Schools and educational planning; 3) documentation of school archives: books of minutes of Collegiate and of faculty and staff, registrar books with final scores, enrolment, visits of inspector, accounting books, punch clock records, student, professor and staff occurrences, inventory, class schedules, school year calendar, school rules, class reports, payment rolls, bills of sales, exchanged mail, personal documentation of professional personnel, documents of land acquisition, blueprints, manuals of PREMEM, didactic materials/resources used in classes, books available in the school library, structured evaluations for follow-up of school processes, pictures of events, texts prepared for special dates, and news from the official newspaper and, finally, 4) national and local press reports, especially from Folha de São Paulo, Correio de Araxá, Correio de Uberlândia and Lavoura e Comércio (Uberaba). The proposition of Vocational schools was conciliate theoretical and practical formation through an active education permeated by technological resources. The contact with knowledge and several practical activities under professional supervision, the student would identify the knowledge area that would interest him the most and his aptitude. This formation in primary school would make way for the vocation studies in high school, which became mandatory by the law 5.692/71, that reformed school education from the previous levels of elementary, middle high and high school. However, the multi-curricula proposal that would be spread to the other public schools in the country ended up succumbing to the model already established. From its ephemeral existence, maybe the Vocational Schools have not reached the more general goals in political, economic and social aspects; however, this study demonstrated that, for the people that, directly or indirectly, had contact with such schools, a legacy of vocational and quality teaching was made, so much so, that forty years after the end of that proposal, they are still remembered.

Grammar in dictionaries revisited: the case of verbs with se

This paper is a study about the way in which se structures are represented in 20 verb entries of nine dictionaries of Spanish language. There is a large number of these structures and they are problematic for native and non native speakers. Verbs of the analysis are middle-high frequency and, in the most part of the cases, very polysemous, and this allows to observe interconnections between the different se structures and the different meanings of each verb. Data of the lexicographic analysis are cross-checked with corpus analysis of the same units. As a result, it is observed that there is a large variety in the data which are offered in each dictionary and in the way they are offered, inter and intradictionary. The reasons range from the theoretical overall of each Project to practical performance. This leads to the conclusion that it is necessary to further progress in the dictionary model it is being handled, in order to offer lexico-grammatical phenomenon such as se verbs in an accurate, clear and exhaustive way.

Occupational accidents among middle and high school students of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of occupational injuries and identify their risk factors among students in two municipalities. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in public schools of the municipalities of Santo Antonio do Pinhal and Monteiro Lobato, Brazil. A stratified probabilistic sample was drawn from public middle and high schools of the study municipalities. A total of 781 students aged 11 to 19 years participated in the study. Students attending middle and high school answered a comprehensive questionnaire on living and working conditions, as well as aspects of work injuries, and health conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate risk factors of previous and present occupational injuries. RESULTS: Of 781 students, 604 previously had or currently have jobs and 47% reported previous injuries. Among current workers (n=555), 38% reported injuries on their current job. Risk factors for work injuries with statistically significant odds ratio >2.0 included attending evening school, working as a housekeeper, waiter or brickmaker, and with potentially dangerous machines. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the need of restricting adolescent work and support communities to implement social promotion programs.

High-resolution correlation of coastal cliff sections in the Lagos- Portimao Formation (Lower - Middle Miocene, central Algarve, Portugal)

This paper describes a high-resolution stratigraphic correlation scheme for the early to middle Miocene Lagos-Portimão Formation of central Algarve, southern Portugal. The Lagos Portimão-Formation of central Algarve is a 60 m thick package of horizontally bedded siliciclastics and carbonates. The bryozoan and mollusc dominated biofacies is typical of a shallow marine, warm-temperate climatic environment. We define four stratigraphic marker beds based on biofacies, lithology, and gamma-ray signatures. Marker bed 1 is a reddish shell bed composed predominantly of bivalve shells in various stages of fragmentation. Marker bed 2 is a fossiliferous sandstone / sandy rudstone characterized by bryozoan masses. Marker bed 3 is also a fossiliferous sandstone with abundant larger foraminifers and foliate bryozoans. Marker bed 4 is composed of three distinct layers; two fossiliferous sandstones with an intercalated shell bed. The upper sandstone unit displays thickets of the bryozoan Celleporaria palmate associated with the coral Culizia parasitica. This stratigraphic framework allows to correlate isolated outcrops within the stratigraphic context of the Lagos-Portimão Formation and to establish high resolution chronostratigraphic Sr-isotopic dating.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

EuroCMR (European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance) registry: results of the German pilot phase.

OBJECTIVES: During its German pilot phase, the EuroCMR (European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance) registry sought to evaluate indications, image quality, safety, and impact on patient management of routine CMR. BACKGROUND: CMR has a broad range of applications and is increasingly used in clinical practice. METHODS: This was a multicenter registry with consecutive enrollment of patients in 20 German centers. RESULTS: A total of 11,040 consecutive patients were enrolled. Eighty-eight percent of patients received gadolinium-based contrast agents. Twenty-one percent underwent adenosine perfusion, and 11% high-dose dobutamine-stress CMR. The most important indications were workup of myocarditis/cardiomyopathies (32%), risk stratification in suspected coronary artery disease/ischemia (31%), as well as assessment of viability (15%). Image quality was good in 90.1%, moderate in 8.1%, and inadequate in 1.8% of cases. Severe complications occurred in 0.05%, and were all associated with stress testing. No patient died during or due to CMR. In nearly two-thirds of patients, CMR findings impacted patient management. Importantly, in 16% of cases the final diagnosis based on CMR was different from the diagnosis before CMR, leading to a complete change in management. In more than 86% of cases, CMR was capable of satisfying all imaging needs so that no further imaging was required. CONCLUSIONS: CMR is frequently performed in clinical practice in many participating centers. The most important indications are workup of myocarditis/cardiomyopathies, risk stratification in suspected coronary artery disease/ischemia, and assessment of viability. CMR imaging as used in the centers of the pilot registry is a safe procedure, has diagnostic image quality in 98% of cases, and its results have strong impact on patient management.

High amplitude contractions in the middle third of the esophagus: a manometric marker of chronic alcoholism?

BACKGROUND--Oesophageal motor abnormalities have been reported in alcoholism. AIM--To investigate the effects of chronic alcoholism and its withdrawal on oesophageal disease. PATIENTS--23 chronic alcoholic patients (20 men and three women; mean age 43, range 23 to 54). METHODS--Endoscopy, manometry, and 24 hour pH monitoring 7-10 days and six months after ethanol withdrawal. Tests for autonomic and peripheral neuropathy were also performed. Motility and pH tracings were compared with those of age and sex matched control groups: healthy volunteers, nutcracker oesophagus, and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease. RESULTS--14 (61%) alcoholic patients had reflux symptoms, and endoscopy with biopsy showed oesophageal inflammation in 10 patients. One patient had an asymptomatic squamous cell carcinoma. Oesophageal motility studies in the alcoholic patients showed that peristaltic amplitude in the middle third was > 150 mm Hg (95th percentile (P95) of healthy controls) in 13 (57%), the ratio lower/ middle amplitude was < 0.9 in 15 (65%) (> 0.9 in all control groups), and the lower oesophageal sphincter was hypertensive (> 23.4 mm Hg, P95 of healthy controls) in 13 (57%). All three abnormalities were present in five (22%). Abnormal reflux (per cent reflux time > 2.9, P95 of healthy controls) was shown in 12 (52%) alcoholic patients, and was unrelated to peristaltic dysfunction. Subclinical neuropathy in 10 patients did not effect oesophageal abnormalities. Oesophageal motility abnormalities persisted at six months in six patients with ongoing alcoholism, whereas they reverted towards normal in 13 who remained abstinent; reflux, however, was unaffected. CONCLUSIONS--Oesophageal peristaltic dysfunction and reflux are frequent in alcoholism. High amplitude contractions in the middle third of the oesophagus seem to be a marker of excessive alcohol consumption, and tend to improve with abstinence.

High amplitude contractions in the middle third of the esophagus: a manometric marker of chronic alcoholism?

BACKGROUND--Oesophageal motor abnormalities have been reported in alcoholism. AIM--To investigate the effects of chronic alcoholism and its withdrawal on oesophageal disease. PATIENTS--23 chronic alcoholic patients (20 men and three women; mean age 43, range 23 to 54). METHODS--Endoscopy, manometry, and 24 hour pH monitoring 7-10 days and six months after ethanol withdrawal. Tests for autonomic and peripheral neuropathy were also performed. Motility and pH tracings were compared with those of age and sex matched control groups: healthy volunteers, nutcracker oesophagus, and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease. RESULTS--14 (61%) alcoholic patients had reflux symptoms, and endoscopy with biopsy showed oesophageal inflammation in 10 patients. One patient had an asymptomatic squamous cell carcinoma. Oesophageal motility studies in the alcoholic patients showed that peristaltic amplitude in the middle third was > 150 mm Hg (95th percentile (P95) of healthy controls) in 13 (57%), the ratio lower/ middle amplitude was < 0.9 in 15 (65%) (> 0.9 in all control groups), and the lower oesophageal sphincter was hypertensive (> 23.4 mm Hg, P95 of healthy controls) in 13 (57%). All three abnormalities were present in five (22%). Abnormal reflux (per cent reflux time > 2.9, P95 of healthy controls) was shown in 12 (52%) alcoholic patients, and was unrelated to peristaltic dysfunction. Subclinical neuropathy in 10 patients did not effect oesophageal abnormalities. Oesophageal motility abnormalities persisted at six months in six patients with ongoing alcoholism, whereas they reverted towards normal in 13 who remained abstinent; reflux, however, was unaffected. CONCLUSIONS--Oesophageal peristaltic dysfunction and reflux are frequent in alcoholism. High amplitude contractions in the middle third of the oesophagus seem to be a marker of excessive alcohol consumption, and tend to improve with abstinence.

Relation between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cardiovascular and renal markers in a middle-income country in the African region.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is associated with several cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and with renal function markers. However, these associations have not been examined in populations in the African region. We analyzed the distribution of hs-CRP and the relationship with a broad set of CVRF, renal markers and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), in the Seychelles (African region). METHODS: We conducted a survey in the population aged 25-64years (n=1255, participation rate: 80.2%). Analyses were restricted to persons of predominantly African descent (n=1011). RESULTS: Mean and median hs-CRP serum concentrations (mg/l) were 3.1 (SD 7.6) and 1.4 (IQR 0.7-2.9) in men and 4.5 (SD 6.7) and 2.2 (IQR 1.0-5.4) in women (p<0.001 for difference between men and women). hs-CRP was significantly associated with several conventional CVRF, and particularly strongly with markers of adiposity. With regards to renal markers, hs-CRP was strongly associated with cystatin C and with microalbuminuria but not with creatinine. hs-CRP was not associated with IMT. CONCLUSIONS: Serum concentration of hs-CRP was significantly associated with sex, several CVRF and selected renal function markers, which extends similar findings in Europe and in North America to a population in the African region. These findings can contribute to guide recommendations for the use of hs-CRP in clinical practice in the region.

Mobilization of hemopoietic stem cells with high-dose methotrexate plus granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor in patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: High-dose therapy with autologous stem cell support after standard dose induction is a promising approach for therapy of primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL). High-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is a standard drug for induction of PCNSL; however, data about the capacity of HD-MTX plus granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) to mobilize hemopoietic progenitors are lacking. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This investigation describes the data from stem cell mobilization and apheresis procedures after one or two cycles of HD-MTX for induction of PCNSL within the East German Study Group for Haematology and Oncology 053 trial. Eligible patients proceeded to high-dose busulfan/thiotepa after induction therapy and mobilization. RESULTS: Data were available from nine patients with a median age of 58 years. The maximal CD34+ cell count per microL of blood after the first course of HD-MTX was 13.89 (median). Determination was repeated in six patients after the second course with a significantly higher median CD34+ cell count of 33.69 per microL. Five patients required two apheresis procedures and in four patients a single procedure was sufficient. The total yield of CD34+ cells per kg of body weight harvested by one or two leukapheresis procedures was 6.60 x 10(6) (median; range, 2.68 x 10(6)-15.80 x 10(6)). The yield of CD34+ cells exceeded the commonly accepted lower threshold of 3 x 10(6) cells per kg of body weight in eight of nine cases. Even in the ninth, hemopoietic recovery after stem cell reinfusion was rapid and safe. CONCLUSION: HD-MTX plus G-CSF is a powerful combination for stem cell mobilization in patients with PCNSL and permits safe conduction of time-condensed and dose-intense protocols with high-dose therapy followed by stem cell reinfusion after HD-MTX induction.

A Comparative Study on Internationalization and the Role of International Offices at Selected Middle Eastern and German Universities

Internationalization of higher education has become one of the most important policies for institutions of higher education worldwide. Though universities are international by nature, the need for intensified quality activities of international nature has promoted internationalization to be under spotlight of researchers, administrators and policy makers and to be an area for research. Each institution follows its certain way to govern its international affairs. Most Universities, especially in the 'Developed World' started to plan it strategically. This study explores the meanings and importance of internationalization especially that it means different things to different people. It also studies the rationales behind internationalizing higher education. It focuses on the four main prevailing rationales; political, cultural/social, economic/financial, and academic on both national and institutional levels. With the increasing need to strategically plan, the study explores internationalization strategies in terms of how to develop them, what are their approaches and types, and their components and dimensions. Damascus University has witnessed an overwhelming development of its international relations and activities. Therefore, it started to face a problem of how to deal with this increasing load especially that its International Office is the only unit that deals with the international issues. In order to study the internationalization phenomenon at Damascus University, the 2WH approach, which asks the what, why, and how questions, is used and in order to define the International Office's role in the internationalization process of the University, it studies it and the international offices of Kassel University, and Humboldt University in Germany, The University of Jordan, and Al Baath University in Syria using the 'SOCIAL' approach that studies and analyses the situation, organization, challenges, involvement, ambitions, and limitations of these offices. The internationalization process at the above-mentioned Universities is studied and compared in terms of its meaning, rationales for both the institution and its academic staff, challenges and strategic planning. Then a comparison is made among the international offices of the Universities to identify their approaches, what led to their success and what led to their failure in their practices. The aim is to provide Damascus University and its International Office with some good practices and, depending on the experiences of the professionals of the case-studies, a suggested guidance to the work of this Office and the University in general is given. The study uses the interviews with the different officials and stakeholders of the case-studies as the main method of collecting the information in addition to site visits, studying their official documents and their websites. The study belongs to qualitative research that has an action dimension in it since the recommendations will be applied in the International Office. The study concludes with few learned lessons for Damascus University and its International Office depending on the comparison that was done according to a set of dimensions. Finally a reflection on the relationship between internationalization of higher education and politics, the impact of politics on Middle Eastern Universities, and institutional internationalization strategies are presented.

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.