Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Análisis de la política exterior norteamericana hacia Turquía, en materia de seguridad, y su influencia en el Kurdistán. Periodo 2003-2009

Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los elementos que articulan la Política Exterior de los Estados Unidos hacia Turquía, en materia de seguridad, y su influencia en el Kurdistán, ya que en el periodo 2003-2009 se presentaron acontecimientos que marcaron la vida política, económica, militar y social de la región del Medio Oriente, caracterizado por la presencia de los Estados Unidos. Esta investigación se desarrollara de acuerdo con el modelo de monografía, para dar un análisis teórico sobre el tema delimitado anteriormente. Se espera que el presente estudio sirva para que el lector comprenda las diferentes actuaciones de los Estados Unidos en el escenario internacional, para la consecución de sus intereses y que tenga un acercamiento en las diferentes relaciones entre los Estados para entender mejor los acontecimientos que se presentaron en el periodo a analizar.

The effects of mechanical stress, environment and cathodic protection on the degradation and failure of coatings: An overview

Organic coatings have been used in conjunction with cathodic protection as the most economical method of corrosion protection by the oil and gas pipeline industry. In a bid to prolong the life of the pipelines, the degradation and failure of pipeline coatings under the effects of major influencing factors including mechanical stress, the environmental corrosivity and cathodic protection have been extensively investigated over the past decades. This paper provides an overview of recent research for understanding coating degradation under the effect of these factors, either individually or in combination. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy remains the primary and the most commonly used technique of studying the degradation of organic coatings, although there have been attempts to use other techniques such as electrochemical polarization (both dynamic and static), electrochemical noise, Scanning Kelvin Probe, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, Differential Scanning Calorimetry and Dynamic Mechanical Analyser. Major knowledge and technological gaps in the investigation of the combined effects of mechanical stress, environmental corrosivity and cathodic protection on coating degradation have been identified.

Determinação da qualidade da radiografia digital aplicada às soldas de gasodutos e oleodutos terrestres e marítimos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelagem e simulação de sistemas de geração de energia para o setor de petróleo e gás

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Caracterização gfeológico-geotécnica aplicada a gestão de risco no gasoduto GASBOL, trecho Ipeúna/SP - Itirapina/SP

The pipelines are characterized by the great length and linearity, these enterprises are usually associated with the horizon of soil and decomposed rock and accidents in this system usually have high complexity. So this work proposes a study of geological and geotechnical characterization of approximately 40 km ² and a study of risk analysis along 18.3 km of gas pipeline GASBOL, in the municipalities of Ipeúna-SP and Itirapina-SP, in scale 1:25.000, besides correlation between studies. The method for geological and geotechnical characterization is based on physiographic integrated analysis technique, which is supported by literature research, observation and interpretation of satellite imagery (photointerpretation), correlation of products numerical model of ground, fieldwork. The method adopted for risk classification is based on preliminary analysis of hazards (APP) technique, which is identified the geological process, this feature is classified as the susceptibility of occurrence, and then classified as the possible consequence of the process, if this evolves. As a product of the research, we designed a map in 1:25,000 scale, containing a table of geological and geotechnical characteristics of the mapped drives, as well as sectorization risk in each section of the pipeline. Were mapped geological and geotechnical seven units in the study area, delimited in excerpts of which five are classified as high risk, totaling 1.1 km in length of 18.3 km total

The effect of flex fuel vehicles in the Brazilian light road transportation

The retaking of the ethanol program in the year 2003 as a fuel for light road transportation in Brazil through the introduction of flex fuel vehicles fleet was a good strategy to overcome the difficulties of the ethanol production sector and did work to increase its market share relative to gasoline. This process, however, may cause a future disequilibrium on the food production and on the refining oil derivates structure. In order to analyze the substitution process resultant of the competition between two opponents fighting for the same market, in this case the gasoline/ethanol substitution process, a method derived from the biomathematics based on the non-linear differential equations (NLDE) system is utilized. A brief description of the method is presented. Numerical adherence of the method to explain several substitution phenomena that occurred in the past is presented in the previous author`s paper, in which the urban gas pipeline system substitution of bottled LPG in the dwelling sector and the substitution of the urban diesel transportation fleet by compressed natural gas (CNG) buses is presented. The proposed method is particularly suitable for prospective analysis and scenarios assessment. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance tests of two small trigeneration pilot plants

Trigeneration systems have been used with advantage in the last years in distributed electricity generation systems as a function of a growth of natural gas pipeline network distribution system, tax incentives, and energy regulation policies. Typically, a trigeneration system is used to produce electrical power simultaneously with supplying heating and cooling load by recovering the combustion products thermal power content that otherwise would be driven to atmosphere. Concerning that, two small scale trigeneration plants have been tested for overall efficiency evaluation and operational comparison. The first system is based on a 30 kW (ISO) natural gas powered microturbine, and the second one uses a 26 kW natural gas powered internal combustion engine coupled to an electrical generator as a prime mover. The stack gases from both machines were directed to a 17.6 kW ammonia-water absorption refrigeration chiller for producing chilled water first and next to a water heat recovery boiler in order to produce hot water. Experimental results are presented along with relevant system operational parameters for appropriate operation including natural gas consumption, net electrical and thermal power production, i.e., hot and cold water production rates, primary energy saving index, and the energy utilization factor over total and partial electrical load operational conditions. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting smokeless tobacco cessation in a blue -collar population

The use of smokeless tobacco products is undergoing an alarming resurgence in the United States. Several national surveys have reported a higher prevalence of use among those employed in blue-collar occupations. National objectives now target this group for health promotion programs which reduce the health risks associated with tobacco use.^ Drawn from a larger data set measuring health behaviors, this cross-sectional study tested the applicability of two related theories, the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), to smokeless tobacco (SLT) cessation in a blue-collar population of gas pipeline workers. In order to understand the determinants of SLT cessation, measures were obtained of demographic and normative characteristics of the population and specific constructs. Attitude toward the act of quitting (AACT) and subjective norm (SN) are constructs common to both models, perceived behavioral control (PBC) is unique to the TPB, and the number of past quit attempts is not contained in either model. In addition, a self-reported measure was taken of SLT use at two-month follow-up.^ The study population was comprised of all male SLT users who were field employees in a large gas pipeline company with gas compressor stations extending from Texas to the Canadian border. At baseline, 199 employees responded to the SLT portion of the survey, 118 completed some portion of the two-month follow-up, and 101 could be matched across time.^ As hypothesized, significant correlations were found between constructs antecedent to AACT and SN, although crossover effects occurred. Significant differences were found between SLT cessation intenders and non-intenders with regard to their personal and normative beliefs about quitting as well as their outcome expectancies and motivation to comply with others' beliefs. These differences occurred in the expected direction, with the mean intender score consistently higher than that of the non-intender.^ Contrary to hypothesis, AACT predicted intention to quit but SN did not. However, confirmatory of the TPB, PBC, operationalized as self-efficacy, independently contributed to the prediction of intention. Statistically significant relationships were not found between intention, perceived behavioral control, their interactive effects, and use behavior at two-month follow-up. The introduction of number of quit attempts into the logistic regression model resulted in insignificant findings for independent and interactive effects.^ The findings from this study are discussed in relation to their implications for program development and practice, especially within the worksite. In order to confirm and extend the findings of this investigation, recommendations for future research are also discussed. ^

Reconciliação de dados de uma malha de gasodutos.

O trabalho aborda a aplicação da técnica de reconciliação de dados para o balanço da movimentação de gás natural em uma malha de escoamento de gás não processado, elaborando também um método de cálculo rápido de inventário de um duto. Foram aplicadas, separadamente, a reconciliação volumétrica à condição padrão de medição e a reconciliação mássica, bem como realizadas comparações dos resultados em relação ao balanço original e verificação do balanço resultante de energia em termos de poder calorífico superior. Dois conjuntos de pesos foram aplicados, um arbitrado de acordo com o conhecimento prévio da qualidade do sistema de medição de cada um dos pontos, outro baseado no inverso da variância dos volumes diários apurados no período. Ambos apresentaram bons resultados e o segundo foi considerado o mais apropriado. Por meio de uma abordagem termodinâmica, foi avaliado o potencial impacto, ao balanço, da condensação de parte da fase gás ao longo do escoamento e a injeção de um condensado de gás natural não estabilizado por uma das fontes. Ambos tendem a impactar o balanço, sendo o resultado esperado um menor volume, massa e energia de fase gás na saída. Outros fatores de considerável impacto na qualidade dos dados e no resultado final da reconciliação são a qualidade da medição de saída do sistema e a representatividade da composição do gás neste ponto. O inventário é calculado a partir de uma regressão que se baseia em um regime permanente de escoamento, o que pode apresentar maior desvio quando fortes transientes estão ocorrendo no último dia do mês, porém a variação de inventário ao longo do mês possui baixo impacto no balanço. Concluiu-se que a reconciliação volumétrica é a mais apropriada para este sistema, pois os dados reconciliados levam os balanços mássicos e de energia em termos de poder calorífico, ambos na fase gás, para dentro do perfil esperado de comportamento. Embora um balanço volumétrico nulo apenas da fase gás não seja por si só o comportamento esperado quando se considera os efeitos descritos, para desenvolver um balanço mais robusto é necessário considerar as frações líquidas presentes no sistema, agregando maior dificuldade na aquisição e qualidade dos dados.

At any price: Russia is embarking on the construction of South Stream. OSW Commentary No. 98, 2012-12-07

Gazprom is determined to continue its efforts to build the South Stream gas pipeline regardless of the slump on the European gas market and the fact that there is sufficient capacity already in the existing transport infrastructure. The official inauguration of the maritime section of South Stream was held on 7 December this year, but the construction itself will commence in 2014. The agreements concluded so far, both intergovernmental and between corporations, are necessary for the launch of the construction of the new pipeline, but still do not guarantee that the project will be completed on time. First of all, some legal problems have yet to be resolved, such as the evaluation of the compliance of the planned actions with the ‘third energy package’ or the fact that ecological surveys required under European law need to be carried out. Secondly, given the present situation on the European gas market and medium-term forecasts, the high cost of implementation of this project and the maintenance expenses of existing pipelines – which are not being used to full capacity – the new project seems to be unfeasible. However, Gazprom’s determination in its efforts to build the pipeline proves that Russia is ready to take a high economic risk to maintain its dominant position on the European gas supply market; it will restrict the possibilities of alternative infrastructural projects being implemented (above all, the EU’s Southern Corridor) and use the construction of new pipelines as an instrument of political pressure on the present transit countries (especially Ukraine).

Bulgarian-Russian games in the energy sector: an outcome is getting closer. OSW Commentary No. 61, 2011-10-5

Bulgaria and Russia are entering the final phase of setting the conditions of their co-operation in the energy sector. A new gas contract is being negotiated because the currently applicable agreements will have expired by the end of 2012. The fate of two major energy projects – whose implementation depends on good co-operation between Sofia and Moscow: the Burgas– –Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the construction of a Bulgarian nuclear power plant in Belene with Russian participation – is currently being decided. Another issue ever-present on the agenda is the future of the South Stream gas pipeline promoted by Russia, which is to run through Bulgarian territory. The outcome of all the aforementioned discussions and negotiations will determine for years the model of Bulgarian-Russian relations and may strongly affect the shape of the oil, gas and electricity markets in South-Eastern Europe.

Volume averaging of multiphase flows with hydrate formation in subsea pipelines

In oil and gas pipeline operations, the gas, oil, and water phases simultaneously move through pipe systems. The mixture cools as it flows through subsea pipelines, and forms a hydrate formation region, where the hydrate crystals start to grow and may eventually block the pipeline. The potential of pipe blockage due to hydrate formation is one of the most significant flow-assurance problems in deep-water subsea operations. Due to the catastrophic safety and economic implications of hydrate blockage, it is important to accurately predict the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles in flowlines. Currently, there are few or no studies that account for the simultaneous effects of hydrate growth and heat transfer on flow characteristics within pipelines. This thesis presents new and more accurate predictive models of multiphase flows in undersea pipelines to describe the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles through a pipeline. A growth rate model for the hydrate phase is presented and then used in the development of a new three-phase model. The conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy are formulated to describe the physical phenomena of momentum and heat transfer between the fluid and the wall. The governing equations are solved based on an analytical-numerical approach using a Newton-Raphson method for the nonlinear equations. An algorithm was developed in Matlab software to solve the equations from the inlet to the outlet of the pipeline. The developed models are validated against a single-phase model with mixture properties, and the results of comparative studies show close agreement. The new model predicts the volume fraction and velocity of each phase, as well as the mixture pressure and temperature profiles along the length of the pipeline. The results from the hydrate growth model reveal the growth rate and location where the initial hydrates start to form. Finally, to assess the impact of certain parameters on the flow characteristics, parametric studies have been conducted. The results show the effect of a variation in the pipe diameter, mass flow rate, inlet pressure, and inlet temperature on the flow characteristics and hydrate growth rates.

Roteiro Tecnológico (roadmap) da Captação, Utilização e Armazenamento de Dióxido de Carbono (CCUS) em Portugal

O objetivo primordial deste trabalho foi estabelecer um roteiro tecnológico para aplicação das tecnologias de “Captação, Utilização e Sequestração de Carbono - CCUS” em Portugal. Para o efeito procedeu-se à identificação da origem das maiores fontes emissoras estacionárias industriais de CO2, adotando como critério o valor mínimo de 1×105 ton CO2/ano e limitado apenas ao território continental. Com base na informação recolhida e referente aos dados oficiais mais recentes (ano de 2013), estimou-se que o volume de emissões industriais de CO2 possível de captar em Portugal, corresponde a cerca de 47 % do valor global das emissões industriais, sendo oriundo de três setores de atividade industrial: produção de cimento, de pasta de papel e centrais termoelétricas a carvão. A maioria das grandes fontes emissoras industriais localiza-se no litoral do país, concentrando-se entre Aveiro e Sines. Pelas condicionantes geográficas do país e, sobretudo pela vantagem de já existir uma rede de gasodutos para o transporte de gás natural, com as respetivas infraestruturas de apoio associadas, admitiu-se que o cenário mais favorável para o transporte do CO2 captado será a criação de um sistema de transporte por gasoduto específico para o CO2. Como critério de compatibilização da proximidade das fontes emissoras de CO2 com potenciais locais para o armazenamento geológico das correntes captadas, adotou-se a distância máxima de 100 km, considerada adequada perante a dimensão do território nacional e as características do tecido industrial nacional. Efetuou-se a revisão das tecnologias de captação de CO2 disponíveis, quer comercialmente, quer em níveis avançados de demonstração e procedeu-se à análise exploratória da adequação desses diferentes métodos de captação a cada um dos setores de atividade industrial previamente identificados com emissões de CO2 suscetíveis de serem captadas. Na perspetiva da melhor integração dos processos, esta análise preliminar tomou em consideração as características das misturas gasosas, assim como o contexto industrial correspondente e o processo produtivo que lhe dá origem. As possibilidades de utilização industrial do CO2 sujeito à captação no país foram tratadas neste trabalho de forma genérica dado que a identificação de oportunidades reais para a utilização de correntes de CO2 captadas exige uma análise de compatibilização das necessidades efetivas de utilização de CO2 por parte de potenciais utilizadores industriais que carece da caracterização prévia das propriedades dessas correntes. Este é um tipo de análise muito específico que pressupõe o interesse mútuo de diferentes intervenientes: agentes emissores de CO2, operadores de transporte e, principalmente, potenciais utilizadores de CO2 como: matéria-prima para a síntese de compostos, solvente de extração supercrítica na indústria alimentar ou farmacêutica, agente corretor de pH em tratamento de efluentes, biofixação por fotossíntese, ou outra das aplicações possíveis identificadas para o CO2 captado. A última etapa deste estudo consistiu na avaliação das possibilidades de armazenamento geológico do CO2 captado e envolveu a identificação, nas bacias sedimentares nacionais, de formações geológicas com características reconhecidas como sendo boas indicações para o armazenamento de CO2 de forma permanente e em segurança. Seguiu-se a metodologia preconizada por organizações internacionais aplicando à situação nacional, critérios de seleção e de segurança que se encontram reconhecidamente definidos. A adequação para o armazenamento de CO2 das formações geológicas pré-selecionadas terá que ser comprovada por estudos adicionais que complementem os dados já existentes sobre as características geológicas destas formações e, mais importante ainda, por testes laboratoriais e ensaios de injeção de CO2 que possam fornecer informação concreta para estimar a capacidade de sequestração e de retenção de CO2 nestas formações e estabelecer os modelos geológicos armazenamento que permitam identificar e estimar, de forma concreta e objetiva, os riscos associados à injeção e armazenamento de CO2.