931 resultados para Failure Probability


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Objectives To compare the reliability of the disto-facial (DF) and mesio-lingual (ML) cusps of an anatomically correct zirconia (Y-TZP) crown system The research hypotheses tested were (1) fatigue reliability and failure mode are similar for the ML and DF cusps, (2) failure mode of one cusp does not affect the failure of the other Methods The average dimensions of a mandibular first molar crown were imported into CAD software, a tooth preparation was modelled by 1 5 mm marginal high reduction of proximal walls and occlusal surface by 2 0 mm The CAD-based tooth preparation was milled and used as a die to fabricate crowns (n = 14) with porcelain veneer on a 0 5 mm Y-TZP core. Crowns were cemented on composite reproductions of the tooth preparation The crowns were step-stress mouth motion fatigued with sliding (0 7 mm) a tungsten-carbide indenter of 6 25 mm diameter down on the inclines of either the DF or ML cusps Use level probability Weibull curve with use stress of 200 N and the reliability for completion of a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load were calculated Results Reliability for a 200 N at 50,000 cycles mission was not different between tested cusps SEM imaging showed large cohesive failures within the veneer for the ML and smaller for the DF Fractures originated from the contact area regardless of the cusp loaded Conclusion No significant difference on fatigue reliability was observed between the DF compared to the ML cusp Fracture of one cusp did not affect the other (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

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Purpose: The aim of this research was to evaluate the fatigue behavior and reliability of monolithic computer-aided design/computer-assisted manufacture (CAD/CAM) lithium disilicate and hand-layer-veneered zirconia all-ceramic crowns. Materials and Methods: A CAD-based mandibular molar crown preparation, fabricated using rapid prototyping, served as the master die. Fully anatomically shaped monolithic lithium disilicate crowns (IPS e.max CAD, n = 19) and hand-layer-veneered zirconia-based crowns (IPS e.max ZirCAD/Ceram, n = 21) were designed and milled using a CAD/CAM system. Crowns were cemented on aged dentinlike composite dies with resin cement. Crowns were exposed to mouth-motion fatigue by sliding a WC-indenter (r = 3.18 mm) 0.7 mm lingually down the distobuccal cusp using three different step-stress profiles until failure occurred. Failure was designated as a large chip or fracture through the crown. If no failures occurred at high loads (> 900 N), the test method was changed to staircase r ratio fatigue. Stress level probability curves and reliability were calculated. Results: Hand-layer-veneered zirconia crowns revealed veneer chipping and had a reliability of < 0.01 (0.03 to 0.00, two-sided 90% confidence bounds) for a mission of 100,000 cycles and a 200-N load. None of the fully anatomically shaped CAD/CAM-fabricated monolithic lithium disilicate crowns failed during step-stress mouth-motion fatigue (180,000 cycles, 900 N). CAD/CAM lithium disilicate crowns also survived r ratio fatigue (1,000,000 cycles, 100 to 1,000 N). There appears to be a threshold for damage/bulk fracture for the lithium disilicate ceramic in the range of 1,100 to 1,200 N. Conclusion: Based on present fatigue findings, the application of CAD/CAM lithium disilicate ceramic in a monolithic/fully anatomical configuration resulted in fatigue-resistant crowns, whereas hand-layer-veneered zirconia crowns revealed a high susceptibility to mouth-motion cyclic loading with early veneer failures. Int J Prosthodont 2010; 23: 434-442.

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This study evaluated the effect of core-design modification on the characteristic strength and failure modes of glass-infiltrated alumina (In-Ceram) (ICA) compared with porcelain fused to metal (PFM). Premolar crowns of a standard design (PFMs and ICAs) or with a modified framework design (PFMm and ICAm) were fabricated, cemented on dies, and loaded until failure. The crowns were loaded at 0.5 mm min(-1) using a 6.25 mm tungsten-carbide ball at the central fossa. Fracture load values were recorded and fracture analysis of representative samples were evaluated using scanning electron microscopy. Probability Weibull curves with two-sided 90% confidence limits were calculated for each group and a contour plot of the characteristic strength was obtained. Design modification showed an increase in the characteristic strength of the PFMm and ICAm groups, with PFM groups showing higher characteristic strength than ICA groups. The PFMm group showed the highest characteristic strength among all groups. Fracture modes of PFMs and of PFMm frequently reached the core interface at the lingual cusp, whereas ICA exhibited bulk fracture through the alumina core. Core-design modification significantly improved the characteristic strength for PFM and for ICA. The PFM groups demonstrated higher characteristic strength than both ICA groups combined.

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In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

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The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

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This paper proposes a PSO based approach to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The statistical failure and repair data of distribution components is the main basis of the proposed methodology that uses a fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A Modified Discrete PSO optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

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First published online: December 16, 2014.

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Untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers is a very harmful environmental hazard that needs to be tackled urgently in many countries. In order to safeguard the river ecosystem and reduce water pollution, it is important to have an effluent charge policy that promotes the investment of wastewater treatment technology by domestic firms. This paper considers the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic firms regarding the investment in the wastewater treatment technology and the design of optimal e­ffluent charge policy that should be implemented. In this model, the higher is the proportion of non-investing firms, the higher would be the probability of having to incur an e­ffluent charge and the higher would be that charge. On one hand the government needs to impose a sufficiently strict policy to ensure that firms have strong incentive to invest. On the other hand, it cannot be too strict that it drives out firms which cannot afford to invest in such expensive technology. The paper analyses the factors that affect the probability of investment in this technology. It also explains the difficulty of imposing a strict environment policy in countries that have too many small firms which cannot afford to invest unless subsidised.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

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Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints.

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Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints. Keywords: barriers to innovation, failure of innovation projects, financial constraints JEL Classifications: O31, D21

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BACKGROUND: Adalimumab (ADA) and certolizumab pegol (CZP) have demonstrated efficacy in Crohn's disease (CD) patients previously treated with infliximab (IFX). AIM: To assess the efficacy and tolerability of a third anti-TNF in CD after failure of and/or intolerance to two different anti-TNF antibodies. METHODS: Crohn's disease patients who received ADA or CZP after loss of response and/or intolerance to two anti-TNF agent were included in this retrospective study. Data were collected using a standardized questionnaire. Clinical response, duration, safety and reasons for discontinuation were assessed. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients treated with CZP (n = 40) or ADA (n = 27) were included. A clinical response was observed in 41 (61%) at week 6 and 34 patients (51%) at week 20. The probability of remaining under treatment at 3 months, 6 months and 9 months was 68%, 60% and 45%, respectively. At the end of follow-up, the third anti-TNF had been stopped in 36 patients for intolerance (n = 13), or failure (n = 23). Two deaths were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment with a third anti-TNF (CZP or ADA) agent of CD patients, who have experienced loss of response and/or intolerance to two anti-TNF antibodies, has favourable short-term and long-term efficacy. It is an option to be considered in patients with no other therapeutic options.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS: Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION: Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.