1000 resultados para Expected shortfall (ES)
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The city of Lorca (Spain) was hit on May 11th, 2011, by two consecutive earth-quakes of magnitudes 4.6 and 5.2 Mw, causing casualties and important damage in buildings. Many of the damaged structures were reinforced concrete frames with wide beams. This study quantifies the expected level of damage on this structural type in the case of the Lorca earth-quake by means of a seismic index Iv that compares the energy input by the earthquake with the energy absorption/dissipation capacity of the structure. The prototype frames investigated represent structures designed in two time periods (1994–2002 and 2003–2008), in which the applicable codes were different. The influence of the masonry infill walls and the proneness of the frames to concentrate damage in a given story were further investigated through nonlinear dynamic response analyses. It is found that (1) the seismic index method predicts levels of damage that range from moderate/severe to complete collapse; this prediction is consistent with the observed damage; (2) the presence of masonry infill walls makes the structure very prone to damage concentration and reduces the overall seismic capacity of the building; and (3) a proper hierarchy of strength between beams and columns that guarantees the formation of a strong column-weak beam mechanism (as prescribed by seismic codes), as well as the adoption of counter-measures to avoid the negative interaction between non-structural infill walls and the main frame, would have reduced the level of damage from Iv=1 (collapse) to about Iv=0.5 (moderate/severe damage)
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ISSIS is the instrument for imaging and slitless spectroscopy on-board WSO-UV. In this article, a detailed comparison between ISSIS expected radiometric performance and other ultraviolet instruments is shown. In addition, we present preliminary information on the performance verification tests and on the foreseen procedures for in-flight operation and data handling.
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This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective seven days moving-average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18.1ºC and 18.7ºC. These temperatures characterise a realised thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ?warm-window? opening in the piedmont reach.
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The aim of this retrospective study was to compare the peculiarities of maxillofacial injuries caused by interpersonal violence with other etiologic factors. Medical records of 3,724 patients with maxillofacial injuries in São Paulo state (Brazil) were retrospectively analyzed. The data were submitted to statistical analysis (simple descriptive statistics and Chi-squared test) using SPSS 18.0 software. Data of 612 patients with facial injuries caused by violence were analyzed. The majority of the patients were male (81%; n = 496), with a mean age of 31.28 years (standard deviation of 13.33 years). These patients were more affected by mandibular and nose fractures, when compared with all other patients (P < 0.01), although fewer injuries were recorded in other body parts (χ(2) = 17.54; P < 0.01); Victims of interpersonal violence exhibited more injuries when the neurocranium was analyzed in isolation (χ(2) = 6.85; P < 0.01). Facial trauma due to interpersonal violence seem to be related to a higher rate of facial fractures and lacerations when compared to all patients with facial injuries. Prominent areas of the face and neurocranium were more affected by injuries.
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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.
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Tal como se apresenta na atualidade, o campo de Teorias de Tomadas de Decisão reflete a intersecção de três desenvolvimentos teóricos principais: Utilidade Esperada, Heurísticas e Desvios e Intuição Holística. As relações entre estes não são clarividentes, nem estão estabelecidas na literatura sobre o assunto, sobretudo porque algumas das tendências em jogo ainda são muito novas. Meu objetivo é contribuir para o suprimento desta lacuna, oferecendo uma visão geral do campo, particularmente sensível às demandas epistemológicas às quais cada novo desenvolvimento respondeu e às limitações destas respostas. De especial interesse é o fato de que isto irá habilitar o leitor a compreender os fundamentos do novo conceito de intuição decisional que desponta e a se posicionar criticamente em relação ao mesmo.
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Currently, the acoustic and nanoindentation techniques are two of the most used techniques for material elastic modulus measurement. In this article fundamental principles and limitations of both techniques are shown and discussed. Last advances in nanoindentation technique are also reviewed. An experimental study in ceramic, metallic, composite and single crystals was also done. Results shown that ultrasonic technique is capable to provide results in agreement with those reported in literature. However, ultrasonic technique does not allow measuring the elastic modulus of some small samples and single crystals. On the other hand, the nanoindentation technique estimates the elastic modulus values in reasonable agreement with those measured by acoustic methods, particularly in amorphous materials, while in some policristaline materials some deviation from expected values was obtained.
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Based on pre-DNA racial/color methodology, clinical and pharmacological trials have traditionally considered the different geographical regions of Brazil as being very heterogeneous. We wished to ascertain how such diversity of regional color categories correlated with ancestry. Using a panel of 40 validated ancestry-informative insertion-deletion DNA polymorphisms we estimated individually the European, African and Amerindian ancestry components of 934 self-categorized White, Brown or Black Brazilians from the four most populous regions of the Country. We unraveled great ancestral diversity between and within the different regions. Especially, color categories in the northern part of Brazil diverged significantly in their ancestry proportions from their counterparts in the southern part of the Country, indicating that diverse regional semantics were being used in the self-classification as White, Brown or Black. To circumvent these regional subjective differences in color perception, we estimated the general ancestry proportions of each of the four regions in a form independent of color considerations. For that, we multiplied the proportions of a given ancestry in a given color category by the official census information about the proportion of that color category in the specific region, to arrive at a ""total ancestry"" estimate. Once such a calculation was performed, there emerged a much higher level of uniformity than previously expected. In all regions studied, the European ancestry was predominant, with proportions ranging from 60.6% in the Northeast to 77.7% in the South. We propose that the immigration of six million Europeans to Brazil in the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries - a phenomenon described and intended as the ""whitening of Brazil"" -is in large part responsible for dissipating previous ancestry dissimilarities that reflected region-specific population histories. These findings, of both clinical and sociological importance for Brazil, should also be relevant to other countries with ancestrally admixed populations.
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Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.
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This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.
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In this paper, it is shown that, for a wide range of risk-averse generalized expected utility preferences, independent risks are complementary, contrary to the results for expected utility preferences satisfying conditions such as proper and standard risk aversion.
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Background: Subtotal esophagectomy and gastric pull-up with cervical anastomosis is the main treatment for advanced achalasia. This surgical technique has been associated to esophagitis and also Barrett`s epithelium following esophagectomy. Aim: To analyze late clinical, endoscopic, and pathologic findings in the esophageal stump (ES) mucosa after subtotal esophagectomy in patients treated for advanced chagasic achalasia. Methods: 101 patients submitted to esophagectomy and cervical gastroplasty were followed-up prospectively for a mean of 10.5 +/- 8.8 years. All patients underwent clinical, endoscopic and histopathological evaluation every 2 years. Gastric acid secretion was also assessed. Results: The incidence of esophagitis in the esophageal stump (45.9% at 1 year; 71.9% at 5 years, and 70.0% at 10 years follow-up); gastritis in the transposed stomach (20.4% at 1 year, 31.0% at 5 years, and 40.0% at 10 or more years follow-up), and the occurrence of ectopic columnar metaplasia and Barrett`s Esophagus in the ES (none until 1 year; 10.9% between 1 and 5 years; 29.5% between 5 and 10 years; and 57.5% at 10 or more years follow-up), all rose over time. Gastric acid secretion returns to its preoperative values 4 years postoperatively. Esophageal stump cancer was detected in the setting of chronic esophagitis in five patients: three squamous cell carcinomas and two adenocarcinomas. Conclusion: (1) Esophagitis and Barrett`s esophagus in the esophageal stump rose over time. (2) These mucosal alterations and the development of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma are probably due to exposure to duodenogastric reflux, and progressively higher acid output in the transposed stomach.
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O Compromisso Nacional para Aperfei??oar as Condi????es de Trabalho na Cana-de-A????car, firmado pelo Governo Federal e entidades de trabalhadores e empres??rios do setor sucroenerg??tico, ?? resultado de uma experi??ncia in??dita no pa??s de negocia????o tripartite para enfrentar o desafio de melhorar as condi????es de vida e trabalho no cultivo manual da cana-de-a????car. Por meio de uma Mesa de Di??logo, sob a coordena????o da Secretaria-Geral da Presid??ncia da Rep??blica, foi constru??do um acordo hist??rico para valorizar e disseminar as melhores pr??ticas trabalhistas na lavoura da cana, evidenciando a import??ncia do di??logo social na elabora????o das Pol??ticas P??blicas. Atrav??s da ades??o volunt??ria das empresas ao Compromisso, da divulga????o das boas pr??ticas empresariais e do cadastro positivo formado pelo selo ???Empresa Compromissada???, conferido ap??s verifica????o in loco de auditoria independente, a iniciativa induz os demais atores do setor a aderir ao Compromisso e adotar as boas pr??ticas trabalhistas
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A simula????o visa preparar gerentes e assessores para organizarem informa????es e diagn??sticos para tomada de decis??o. Apresenta diversos pontos de vista sobre um programa em andamento e estimula debates entre gestores e atores das ??reas envolvidas. A partir da aprecia????o dos pontos de vista desses atores, os participantes dever??o se preparar, em curto espa??o de tempo, para uma reuni??o com o dirigente rec??m-empossado respons??vel pelo programa em quest??o