An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Pairing Repeated Reading and Systematic Error Correction: Impact on Fluency of 18 Year Old Students on a Small Caribbean Island

This study investigates the impact of a combined treatment of Systematic Error Correction and Repeated Reading on reading rate and errors for 18 year olds with undiagnosed reading difficulties on a Caribbean Island. In addition to direct daily measures of reading accuracy, the Reading Self Perception Scale was administered to determine whether the intervention was associated with changes in the way the student perceives himself as a reader.

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

Quantum error correction with the IBM quantum experience

Mentre si svolgono operazioni su dei qubit, possono avvenire vari errori, modificando così l’informazione da essi contenuta. La Quantum Error Correction costruisce algoritmi che permettono di tollerare questi errori e proteggere l’informazione che si sta elaborando. Questa tesi si focalizza sui codici a 3 qubit, che possono correggere un errore di tipo bit-flip o un errore di tipo phase-flip. Più precisamente, all’interno di questi algoritmi, l’attenzione è posta sulla procedura di encoding, che punta a proteggere meglio dagli errori l’informazione contenuta da un qubit, e la syndrome measurement, che specifica su quale qubit è avvenuto un errore senza alterare lo stato del sistema. Inoltre, sfruttando la procedura della syndrome measurement, è stata stimata la probabilità di errore di tipo bit-flip e phase-flip su un qubit attraverso l’utilizzo della IBM quantum experience.

Perceptually driven video error protection using a distributed source coding approach

In video communication systems, the video signals are typically compressed and sent to the decoder through an error-prone transmission channel that may corrupt the compressed signal, causing the degradation of the final decoded video quality. In this context, it is possible to enhance the error resilience of typical predictive video coding schemes using as inspiration principles and tools from an alternative video coding approach, the so-called Distributed Video Coding (DVC), based on the Distributed Source Coding (DSC) theory. Further improvements in the decoded video quality after error-prone transmission may also be obtained by considering the perceptual relevance of the video content, as distortions occurring in different regions of a picture have a different impact on the user's final experience. In this context, this paper proposes a Perceptually Driven Error Protection (PDEP) video coding solution that enhances the error resilience of a state-of-the-art H.264/AVC predictive video codec using DSC principles and perceptual considerations. To increase the H.264/AVC error resilience performance, the main technical novelties brought by the proposed video coding solution are: (i) design of an improved compressed domain perceptual classification mechanism; (ii) design of an improved transcoding tool for the DSC-based protection mechanism; and (iii) integration of a perceptual classification mechanism in an H.264/AVC compliant codec with a DSC-based error protection mechanism. The performance results obtained show that the proposed PDEP video codec provides a better performing alternative to traditional error protection video coding schemes, notably Forward Error Correction (FEC)-based schemes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fault Tolerant Error Coding and Detection using Reversible Gates

In recent years, reversible logic has emerged as one of the most important approaches for power optimization with its application in low power CMOS, quantum computing and nanotechnology. Low power circuits implemented using reversible logic that provides single error correction – double error detection (SEC-DED) is proposed in this paper. The design is done using a new 4 x 4 reversible gate called ‘HCG’ for implementing hamming error coding and detection circuits. A parity preserving HCG (PPHCG) that preserves the input parity at the output bits is used for achieving fault tolerance for the hamming error coding and detection circuits.

Time course of error detection and correction in humans: neurophysiological evidence.

Using event-related brain potentials, the time course of error detection and correction was studied in healthy human subjects. A feedforward model of error correction was used to predict the timing properties of the error and corrective movements. Analysis of the multichannel recordings focused on (1) the error-related negativity (ERN) seen immediately after errors in response- and stimulus-locked averages and (2) on the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) reflecting motor preparation. Comparison of the onset and time course of the ERN and LRP components showed that the signs of corrective activity preceded the ERN. Thus, error correction was implemented before or at least in parallel with the appearance of the ERN component. Also, the amplitude of the ERN component was increased for errors, followed by fast corrective movements. The results are compatible with recent views considering the ERN component as the output of an evaluative system engaged in monitoring motor conflict.

Effective video content distribution by combining TCP with adaptive FEC coding

This paper will look at the benefits and limitations of content distribution using Forward Error Correction (FEC) in conjunction with the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP). FEC can be used to reduce the number of retransmissions which would usually result from a lost packet. The requirement for TCP to deal with any losses is then greatly reduced. There are however side-effects to using FEC as a countermeasure to packet loss: an additional requirement for bandwidth. When applications such as real-time video conferencing are needed, delay must be kept to a minimum, and retransmissions are certainly not desirable. A balance, therefore, between additional bandwidth and delay due to retransmissions must be struck. Our results show that the throughput of data can be significantly improved when packet loss occurs using a combination of FEC and TCP, compared to relying solely on TCP for retransmissions. Furthermore, a case study applies the result to demonstrate the achievable improvements in the quality of streaming video perceived by end users.

Suppression of patterning effects in digital communications by an adaptive constrained coding

We quantify the error statistics and patterning effects in a 5x 40 Gbit/s WDM RZ-DBPSK SMF/DCF fibre link using hybrid Raman/EDFA amplification. We propose an adaptive constrained coding for the suppression of errors due to patterning effects. It is established, that this coding technique can greatly reduce the bit error rate (BER) value even for large BER (BER > 101). The proposed approach can be used in the combination with the forward error correction schemes (FEC) to correct the errors even when real channel BER is outside the FEC workspace.

Autenticação de vídeo H.264/AVC

Hoje em dia, há cada vez mais informação audiovisual e as transmissões ou ficheiros multimédia podem ser partilhadas com facilidade e eficiência. No entanto, a adulteração de conteúdos vídeo, como informação financeira, notícias ou sessões de videoconferência utilizadas num tribunal, pode ter graves consequências devido à importância desse tipo de informação. Surge então, a necessidade de assegurar a autenticidade e a integridade da informação audiovisual. Nesta dissertação é proposto um sistema de autenticação de vídeo H.264/Advanced Video Coding (AVC), denominado Autenticação de Fluxos utilizando Projecções Aleatórias (AFPA), cujos procedimentos de autenticação, são realizados ao nível de cada imagem do vídeo. Este esquema permite um tipo de autenticação mais flexível, pois permite definir um limite máximo de modificações entre duas imagens. Para efectuar autenticação é utilizada uma nova técnica de autenticação de imagens, que combina a utilização de projecções aleatórias com um mecanismo de correcção de erros nos dados. Assim é possível autenticar cada imagem do vídeo, com um conjunto reduzido de bits de paridade da respectiva projecção aleatória. Como a informação de vídeo é tipicamente, transportada por protocolos não fiáveis pode sofrer perdas de pacotes. De forma a reduzir o efeito das perdas de pacotes, na qualidade do vídeo e na taxa de autenticação, é utilizada Unequal Error Protection (UEP). Para validação e comparação dos resultados implementou-se um sistema clássico que autentica fluxos de vídeo de forma típica, ou seja, recorrendo a assinaturas digitais e códigos de hash. Ambos os esquemas foram avaliados, relativamente ao overhead introduzido e da taxa de autenticação. Os resultados mostram que o sistema AFPA, utilizando um vídeo com qualidade elevada, reduz o overhead de autenticação em quatro vezes relativamente ao esquema que utiliza assinaturas digitais e códigos de hash.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.

Analysis and optimization of the satellite-to-plane link of an aeronautical global system

En aquest projecte s’ha analitzat i optimitzat l’enllaç satèl·lit amb avió per a un sistema aeronàutic global. Aquest nou sistema anomenat ANTARES està dissenyat per a comunicar avions amb estacions base mitjançant un satèl·lit. Aquesta és una iniciativa on hi participen institucions oficials en l’aviació com ara l’ECAC i que és desenvolupat en una col·laboració europea d’universitats i empreses. El treball dut a terme en el projecte compren bàsicament tres aspectes. El disseny i anàlisi de la gestió de recursos. La idoneïtat d’utilitzar correcció d’errors en la capa d’enllaç i en cas que sigui necessària dissenyar una opció de codificació preliminar. Finalment, estudiar i analitzar l’efecte de la interferència co-canal en sistemes multifeix. Tots aquests temes són considerats només per al “forward link”. L’estructura que segueix el projecte és primer presentar les característiques globals del sistema, després centrar-se i analitzar els temes mencionats per a poder donar resultats i extreure conclusions.

Discriminant ECOC: a heuristic method for application dependent design of error correcting output codes

We present a heuristic method for learning error correcting output codes matrices based on a hierarchical partition of the class space that maximizes a discriminative criterion. To achieve this goal, the optimal codeword separation is sacrificed in favor of a maximum class discrimination in the partitions. The creation of the hierarchical partition set is performed using a binary tree. As a result, a compact matrix with high discrimination power is obtained. Our method is validated using the UCI database and applied to a real problem, the classification of traffic sign images.