A review of system safety failure probability objectives for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are one of a number of emerging aviation sectors. Such new aviation concepts present a significant challenge to National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) charged with ensuring the safety of their operation within the existing airspace system. There is significant heritage in the existing body of aviation safety regulations for Conventionally Piloted Aircraft (CPA). It can be argued that the promulgation of these regulations has delivered a level of safety tolerable to society, thus justifying the “default position” of applying these same standards, regulations and regulatory structures to emerging aviation concepts such as UAS. An example of this is the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS, which is based on the 1309 regulation for CPA. However, the absence of a pilot on-board an unmanned aircraft creates a fundamentally different risk paradigm to that of CPA. An appreciation of these differences is essential to the justification of the “default position” and in turn, to ensure the development of effective safety standards and regulations for UAS. This paper explores the suitability of the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS. A detailed review of the proposed regulation is provided and a number of key assumptions are identified and discussed. A high-level model characterising the expected number of third party fatalities on the ground is then used to determine the impact of these assumptions. The results clearly show that the “one size fits all” approach to the definition of 1309 regulations for UAS, which mandates equipment design and installation requirements independent of where the UAS is to be operated, will not lead to an effective management of the risks.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

Effect of machine dependence on wall failure property measurements, Jenike versus an annular shear tester

Annular, ring or torsional shear testers are commonly used in bulk solids handling research for the purpose of powder characterisation or equipment design. This paper reports from a DEFRA sponsored project which aims to develop an industrial powder flow-ability tester, (based on the annular shear tester) that is economic to buy and quick and easy to use in trained but unskilled hands. This paper compares the wall failure loci measured with an annular shear cell with measurements obtained using the accepted standard wall friction tester, the Jenike shear cell. These wall failure loci have been measured for several bulk solids which range from fine cohesive powders to free-flowing granular materials, on a stainless steel 304 2B wall surface.

Comparisons of seismic rock slope stability assessments between the Hoek-Brown and Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria

Current investigations have shown that earthquakes can trigger significant damages of equipment, property infrastructure and environment. This is a persistent cause of economic loss for any country, especially for the loss of life. The conventional method for slope stability design is to utilize limit equilibrium method (LEM) in conjunction with the pseudo-static (PS) approach. However, the LEM has a significant drawback which is to determine the slip surface before factor of safety calculation. The numerical upper and lower bound limit analysis method employed in this paper can avoid this limitation. In this study, the presented slope stability evaluations considering earthquake effects based on the finite difference method will be discussed and compared with the results from the numerical limit analysis methods.

A failure tolerant filing system,

"COO-1469-0200."

Maintenance strategies affecting equipment performance

Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

Novel NR5A1 Missense Mutation in Premature Ovarian Failure: Detection in Han Chinese Indicates Causation in Different Ethnic Groups

Background The etiology of most premature ovarian failure (POF) cases is usually elusive. Although genetic causes clearly exist and a likely susceptible region of 8q22.3 has been discovered, no predominant explanation exists for POF. More recently, evidences have indicated that mutations in NR5A1 gene could be causative for POF. We therefore screened for mutations in the NR5A1 gene in a large cohort of Chinese women with non-syndromic POF. Methods Mutation screening of NR5A1 gene was performed in 400 Han Chinese women with well-defined 46,XX idiopathic non-syndromic POF and 400 controls. Subsequently, functional characterization of the novel mutation identified was evaluated in vitro. Results A novel heterozygous missense mutation [c.13T>G (p.Tyr5Asp)] in NR5A1 was identified in 1 of 384 patients (0.26%). This mutation impaired transcriptional activation on Amh, Inhibin-a, Cyp11a1and Cyp19a1 gene, as shown by transactivation assays. However, no dominant negative effect was observed, nor was there impact on protein expression and nuclear localization. Conclusions This novel mutation p.Tyr5Asp, in a novel non-domain region, is presumed to result in haploinsufficiency. Irrespectively, perturbation in NR5A1 is not a common explanation for POF in Chinese.

Body composition changes assessed by bioelectrical impedance and their associations with functional class deterioration in stable heart failure patients

Background: Heart failure (HF) patients develop important changes in body composition, but only a small number of studies have evaluated the associations between these changes and functional class deterioration in a prospective manner. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether changes in bioimpedance parameters were associated with NYHA functional class deterioration over six months. Methods: A total of 275 chronic stable HF patients confirmed by echocardiography were recruited. Body composition measurements were obtained by whole body bioelectrical impedance with multiple frequency equipment (BodyStat QuadScan 4000). We evaluated functional class using the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification at baseline and after six months. Results: According to our results, 66 (24%) subjects exhibited functional class deterioration, while 209 improved or exhibited no change. A greater proportion of patients exhibited higher extracellular water (> 5%), and these patients developed hypervolemia, according to location on the resistance/reactance graph. A 5% decrease in resistance/height was associated with functional class deterioration with an OR of 1.42 (95% CI 1.01-2.0, p = 0.04). Conclusions: Body composition assessment through bioelectrical impedance exhibited a valuable performance as a marker of functional class deterioration in stable HF patients.