Inequality and economic growth in Latin

Latin America is the region that bears the highest rates of inequality in the world. Deininger and Squire (1996) showed that Latin American countries achieved only minor reductions in inequality between 1960 and 1990. On the other hand, East Asian countries, recurrently cited in recent literature on this issue, have significantly narrowed the gap in income inequality, while achieving sustained economic growth. These facts have triggered a renewed discussion on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. According to the above literature, income inequality could have an adverse effect on countries’ growth rates. The main authors who spouse this line of thinking are Persson and Tebellini (1994), Alesina and Rodrik (1994), Perotti (1996), Bénabou (1996), and Deininger and Squire (1996, 1998). More recently, however, articles were published that questioned the evidence presented previously. Representatives of this new point of view, namely Li and Zou (1998), Barro (1999), Deininger and Olinto (2000) and Forbes (2000), believe that the relation between these variables can be positive, i.e., income inequality can indeed foster economic growth. Using this literature as a starting point, this article seeks to evaluate the relation between income inequality and economic growth in Latin America, based on a 13-country panel, from 1970 to 1995. After briefly reviewing the above articles, this study estimates the per capita GDP and growth rate equations, based on the neoclassical approach for economic growth. It also estimates the Kuznets curve for this sample of countries. Econometric results are in line with recent work conducted in this area – particularly Li and Zou (1998) and Forbes (2000) – and confirm the positive relation between inequality and growth, and also support Kuznets hypothesis.

Healing wounds institutional strength, peacebuilding, and productive entrepreneurship – exploratory analysis on 23 departments of Colombia

Este estudio presenta un análisis exploratorio sobre la correlación entre la fortaleza institucional, las condiciones de paz, y el emprendimiento en una muestra de 23 departamentos en Colombia usando datos de 2014. Para llevar a cabo este objetivo se propusieron y construyeron tres índices siguiendo definiciones conceptuales seminales o estándares de evaluación internacional, a saber: 1) El Índice de Fortaleza Institucional, 2) El Índice de Construcción de Paz (construido a partir del índice de paz negativa y el índice de paz positiva) y 3) El Índice de Emprendimiento Productivo. Los resultados no muestran una correlación significativa entre todos los tres índices. Por un lado, existe una correlación significativa (p<0.05) entre los índices de fortaleza institucional y emprendimiento productivo. Por otro lado, existen correlaciones negativas no significativas entre los índices de paz positiva y fortaleza institucional, emprendimiento productivo y paz positiva y emprendimiento productivo y construcción de paz. En un segundo acercamiento, la población de los departamentos fue la variable con mayor número de correlaciones significativas (p<0.01) entre variables relacionadas con emprendimiento productivo, empleo, producto interno bruto, sofisticación industrial, innovación (patentes) y crimen. Finalmente, se discuten las conclusiones y las futuras investigaciones.

High-resolution DNA melt curve analysis of the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat locus of Campylobacter jejuni

A novel method for genotyping the clustered, regularly interspaced short-palindromic-repeat (CRISPR) locus of Campylobacter jejuni is described. Following real-time PCR, CRISPR products were subjected to high-resolution melt (HRM) analysis, a new technology that allows precise melt profile determination of amplicons. This investigation shows that the CRISPR HRM assay provides a powerful addition to existing C. jejuni genotyping methods and emphasizes the potential of HRM for genotyping short sequence repeats in other species

Keep ahead of the workforce development curve through the establishment of standardised training for rail incident investigators

The Australasian rail industry lacks a consistently accepted standard of minimal training necessary to perform rail incident investigations. Current Australasian courses do not offer the breadth of development required for a comprehensive career pathway in incident investigation (Biggs, Banks & Dovan, 2012; Short, Kains & Harris, 2010).

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Effect of environmental conditions on the distribution of Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae in the California Current system

We modeled the probability of capturing Pacif ic mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae as a function of environmental variables for the Southern California Bight (SCB) most years from 1951 through 2008 and Mexican waters offshore of Baja California from 1951 through 1984. The model exhibited acceptable fit, as indicated by the area under a receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.80 but was inconsistent with the zero catches that occurred frequently in the 2000s. Two types of spawners overlapped spatially within the survey area: those that exhibited peak spawning during April in the SCB at about 15.5°C and a smaller group that exhibited peak spawning in August near Punta Eugenia, Mexico, at 20°C or greater. The SCB generally had greater zooplankton than Mexican waters but less appropriate (lower) geostrophic f lows. Mexican waters generally exhibited greater predicted habitat quality than the SCB in cold years. Predicted quality of the habitat in the SCB was greater from the 1980s to 2008 than in the earlier years of the survey primarily because temperatures and geostrophic flows were more appropriate for larvae. However, stock size the previous year had a larger effect on predictions than any environmental variable, indicating that larval Pacific mackerel did not fully occupy the suitable habitat during most years.

Relationships between microcystins and environmental parameters in 30 subtropical shallow lakes along the Yangtze River, China

1. A survey of 30 subtropical shallow lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River area in China was conducted during July-September in 2003-2004 to study how environmental and biological variables were associated with the concentration of the cyanobacterial toxin microcystin (MC). 2. Mean MC concentration in seasonally river-connected lakes (SL) was nearly 33 times that in permanently river-connected lakes (RL), and more than six times that in city lakes (NC) and non-urban lakes (NE) which were not connected to the Yangtze River. The highest MC (8.574 mu g L-1) was detected in Dianshan Lake. 3. MC-RR and MC-LR were the primary toxin variants in our data. MC-RR, MC-YR and MC-LR were significantly correlated with Ch1 a, biomass of cyanobacteria, Microcystis and Anabaena, indicating that microcystins were mainly produced by Microcystis and Anabaena sp. in these lakes. 4. Nonlinear interval maxima regression indicated that the relationships of Secchi depth, total nitrogen (TN) : total phosphorus UP) and NH4+ with MC were characterised by negative exponential curves. The relationships between MC and TN, TP, NO3- + NO2- were fitted well with a unimodal curve. 5. Multivariate analyses by principal component and classifying analysis indicated that MC was mainly affected by Microcystis among the biological factors, and was closely related with temperature among physicochernical factors.

Community structure of macrobenthos in coastal water off Rushan, southern Shandong Peninsula, and the relationships with environmental factors

To understand the present actuality of the marine ecosystem in the southern coastal water region of the Shandong Peninsula and the impact of the global change and the human activities to the marine ecosystem of the region, the macrobenthic community structure was researched based on data from 26 sampling stations carried out on four seasonal cruises from December 2006 to November 2007. The data was analyzed using PRIMER 6.0 and SPSS 15.0 software packages. The results showed that 236 macrobenthic species in total were collected from the research region by the field works. Most of the species belong to Polychaeta (76 species), Mollusca (75) and Crustacea (60). Of which, 33 species were common species by the four cruises. The dominant species were different among the four seasons, however, the polychaete species Nephtys oligobranchia and Sternaspis scutata were always dominant in the four seasons. The abundances and biomasses of the macrobenthos from the research region were variable in tire four seasons. The results of CLUSTER and MDS analysis showed that the similarities of macrobenthic structures among the stations were low, most of the similarities were at about 40% of similarity values, only that of two stations were up to 60%. In accordance with the similarity values of the macrobenthic structures, the 26 stations were clustered as six groups at arbitrary similarity level of 30%. The ABC curve indicated that the marcofauna communities in the research region had riot been disturbed distinctly. The results of BIOENV and BVSTEP (Spearman) analysis implied that the concentrations of organic matter in bottom water and heavy metal copper in sediment, water depth and temperature of bottom were the most significant environmental factors to affect the macrobentic community.

Holocene deposits from Neptune’s Cave, Nordland, Norway: Environmental interpretation and relation to the deglacial and emergence history of the Velfjord–Tosenfjord area

Neptune’s Cave in the Velfjord–Tosenfjord area of Nordland, Norway is described, together with its various organic deposits. Samples of attached barnacles, loose marine molluscs, animal bones and organic sediments were dated, with radiocarbon ages of 9840+/-90 and 9570+/-80 yr BP being derived for the barnacles and molluscs, based on the superseded but locally used marine reservoir age of 440 years. A growth temperature of c. 7.51C in undiluted seawater is deduced from the d13C and d18O values of both types of marine shell, which is consistent with their early Holocene age. From the dates, and an assessment of local Holocene uplift and Weichselian deglaciation, a scenario is constructed that could explain the situation and condition of the various deposits. The analysis uses assumed local isobases and sea-level curve to give results: that are consistent with previous data, that equate the demise of the barnacles to the collapse of a tidewater glacier in Tosenfjord, and that constrain the minimum extent of local Holocene uplift. An elk fell into the cave in the mid-Holocene at 510070 yr BP, after which a much later single ‘bog-burst’ event at 178070 yr BP could explain the transport of the various loose deposits further into the cave.

Differential induction, isolation, physicochemical and molecular characterization of temperate phages of environmental Vibrio cholerae as evidence of phage mediated Horizontal Gene Transfer

The resurgence of the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative organism of epidemic cholera, remains a major health problem in many developing countries like India. The southern Indian state of Kerala is endemic to cholera. The outbreaks of cholera follow a seasonal pattern in regions of endemicity. Marine aquaculture settings and mangrove environments of Kerala serve as reservoirs for V. cholerae. The non-O1/non-O139 environmental isolates of V. cholerae with incomplete ‘virulence casette’ are to be dealt with caution as they constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes in the marine environment and play a crucial role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer. The genes coding cholera toxin are borne on, and can be infectiously transmitted by CTXΦ, a filamentous lysogenic vibriophages. Temperate phages can provide crucial virulence and fitness factors affecting cell metabolism, bacterial adhesion, colonization, immunity, antibiotic resistance and serum resistance. The present study was an attempt to screen the marine environments like aquafarms and mangroves of coastal areas of Alappuzha and Cochin, Kerala for the presence of lysogenic V. cholerae, to study their pathogenicity and also gene transfer potential. Phenotypic and molecular methods were used for identification of isolates as V. cholerae. The thirty one isolates which were Gram negative, oxidase positive, fermentative, with or without gas production on MOF media and which showed yellow coloured colonies on TCBS (Thiosulfate Citrate Bile salt Sucrose) agar were segregated as vibrios. Twenty two environmental V. cholerae strains of both O1 and non- O1/non-O139 serogroups on induction with mitomycin C showed the presence of lysogenic phages. They produced characteristic turbid plaques in double agar overlay assay using the indicator strain V. cholerae El Tor MAK 757. PCR based molecular typing with primers targeting specific conserved sequences in the bacterial genome, demonstrated genetic diversity among these lysogen containing non-O1 V. cholerae . Polymerase chain reaction was also employed as a rapid screening method to verify the presence of 9 virulence genes namely, ctxA, ctxB, ace, hlyA, toxR, zot,tcpA, ninT and nanH, using gene specific primers. The presence of tcpA gene in ALPVC3 was alarming, as it indicates the possibility of an epidemic by accepting the cholera. Differential induction studies used ΦALPVC3, ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14, underlining the possibility of prophage induction in natural ecosystems, due to abiotic factors like antibiotics, pollutants, temperature and UV. The efficiency of induction of prophages varied considerably in response to the different induction agents. The growth curve of lysogenic V. cholerae used in the study drastically varied in the presence of strong prophage inducers like antibiotics and UV. Bacterial cell lysis was directly proportional to increase in phage number due to induction. Morphological characterization of vibriophages by Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed hexagonal heads for all the four phages. Vibriophage ΦALPVC3 exhibited isometric and contractile tails characteristic of family Myoviridae, while phages ΦALPVC11 and ΦALPVC12 demonstrated the typical hexagonal head and non-contractile tail of family Siphoviridae. ΦEKM14, the podophage was distinguished by short non-contractile tail and icosahedral head. This work demonstrated that environmental parameters can influence the viability and cell adsorption rates of V. cholerae phages. Adsorption studies showed 100% adsorption of ΦALPVC3 ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14 after 25, 30, 40 and 35 minutes respectively. Exposure to high temperatures ranging from 50ºC to 100ºC drastically reduced phage viability. The optimum concentration of NaCl required for survival of vibriophages except ΦEKM14 was 0.5 M and that for ΦEKM14 was 1M NaCl. Survival of phage particles was maximum at pH 7-8. V. cholerae is assumed to have existed long before their human host and so the pathogenic clones may have evolved from aquatic forms which later colonized the human intestine by progressive acquisition of genes. This is supported by the fact that the vast majority of V. cholerae strains are still part of the natural aquatic environment. CTXΦ has played a critical role in the evolution of the pathogenicity of V. cholerae as it can transmit the ctxAB gene. The unusual transformation of V. cholerae strains associated with epidemics and the emergence of V. cholera O139 demonstrates the evolutionary success of the organism in attaining greater fitness. Genetic changes in pathogenic V. cholerae constitute a natural process for developing immunity within an endemically infected population. The alternative hosts and lysogenic environmental V. cholerae strains may potentially act as cofactors in promoting cholera phage ‘‘blooms’’ within aquatic environments, thereby influencing transmission of phage sensitive, pathogenic V. cholerae strains by aquatic vehicles. Differential induction of the phages is a clear indication of the impact of environmental pollution and global changes on phage induction. The development of molecular biology techniques offered an accessible gateway for investigating the molecular events leading to genetic diversity in the marine environment. Using nucleic acids as targets, the methods of fingerprinting like ERIC PCR and BOX PCR, revealed that the marine environment harbours potentially pathogenic group of bacteria with genetic diversity. The distribution of virulence associated genes in the environmental isolates of V. cholerae provides tangible material for further investigation. Nucleotide and protein sequence analysis alongwith protein structure prediction aids in better understanding of the variation inalleles of same gene in different ecological niche and its impact on the protein structure for attaining greater fitness of pathogens. The evidences of the co-evolution of virulence genes in toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from different lineages of environmental non-O1 strains is alarming. Transduction studies would indicate that the phenomenon of acquisition of these virulence genes by lateral gene transfer, although rare, is not quite uncommon amongst non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae and it has a key role in diversification. All these considerations justify the need for an integrated approach towards the development of an effective surveillance system to monitor evolution of V. cholerae strains with epidemic potential. Results presented in this study, if considered together with the mechanism proposed as above, would strongly suggest that the bacteriophage also intervenes as a variable in shaping the cholera bacterium, which cannot be ignored and hinting at imminent future epidemics.

Lifecycle environmental impact and cost analyses of steel bridge piers with seismic risk

Lifecycle approaches have found their wide applications in analyzing, evaluating and assessing technologies and management methods in the infrastructure systems. While environmental problems such as global warming have become a serious issue in the world, researchers and practicing engineers in civil engineering have to pay attention to environmental impacts as well as function, safety, cost and aesthetics in the
whole lifecycle of civil infrastructures. In addition to the normal lifecycle activities accompanied with operation and aging, the effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes with a low occurrence probability but a high
hazard loss require a full consideration in determining both lifecycle cost and lifecycle environmental impact. In this research, an approach is proposed to predetermine the lifecycle environmental impact and costs of bridges from their construction and maintenance as well as the losses and recovery after natural hazards. Based on this research, it becomes possible to quantitatively outline the roles of bridge construction, maintenance and earthquake in both environmental impact and cost in the whole lifetime of a bridge, especially their constituent parts from seismic losses and recoveries.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Growth curve in Santa Ines sheep

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)