Mudanças de regimes na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil : uma abordagem utilizando Markov Regime Switching

O presente trabalho busca identificar a ocorrência, duração e probabilidades de transição de diferentes regimes na condução da política monetária no Brasil a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em 1999. A estimação da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil é realizada a partir de uma Regra de Taylor forward looking para uma economia aberta, onde utilizamos a metodologia Markov Regime Switching para caracterizar de forma endógena os diferentes regimes de política monetária. Os resultados obtidos indicam a ocorrência de três regimes distintos de política monetária a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. O primeiro regime ocorre durante 21% do período estudado e se caracteriza pela não aderência ao princípio de Taylor e discricionariedade da autoridade monetária, que reage demonstrando maior sensibilidade ao hiato do produto. O segundo regime é o de maior duração, ocorre durante 67% do período estudado, e se caracteriza pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor e equilíbrio nos pesos atribuídos pelo Banco Central tanto ao hiato do produto como ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta. Já o terceiro regime ocorre durante 12% do período estudado e se caracteriza não somente pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor, como também por uma maior aversão ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta.

[No rebound psychosis in a case of switching from clozapine to quetiapine]

OBJECTIVE: After rapid discontinuation of clozapine treatment rebound psychosis have been reported. Preexposure of D (2) receptors to clozapine may alter their affinity to endogenous dopamine. Clozapine withdrawal may also lead dysfunctional NMDA-receptors to cause dopamine release in the striatum. METHOD: We report a case of a schizophrenic patient treated with clozapine 200 mg and aripiprazole 15 mg per day. After rapid clozapine discontinuation we added quetiapine up to 700 mg daily. RESULTS: No rebound psychosis occurred. Even ten weeks after switching to quetiapine the patient's condition remained stable in the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of aripiprazole and quetiapine seemed to control supersensitivity effects at the D (2) receptor after clozapin withdrawal in this case.

Impact of Switching From Zidovudine to Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate on Bone Mineral Density and Markers of Bone Metabolism in Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Patients; A Substudy of the PREPARE Study

Context: In virologically suppressed, antiretroviral-treated patients, the effect of switching to tenofovir (TDF) on bone biomarkers compared to patients remaining on stable antiretroviral therapy is unknown. Methods: We examined bone biomarkers (osteocalcin [OC], procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide, and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen) and bone mineral density (BMD) over 48 weeks in virologically suppressed patients (HIV RNA < 50 copies/ml) randomized to switch to TDF/emtricitabine (FTC) or remain on first-line zidovudine (AZT)/lamivudine (3TC). PTH was also measured. Between-group differences in bone biomarkers and associations between change in bone biomarkers and BMD measures were assessed by Student's t tests, Pearson correlation, and multivariable linear regression, respectively. All data are expressed as mean (SD), unless otherwise specified. Results: Of 53 subjects (aged 46.0 y; 84.9% male; 75.5% Caucasian), 29 switched to TDF/FTC. There were reductions in total hip and lumbar spine BMD in those switching to TDF/FTC (total hip, TDF/FTC, −1.73 (2.76)% vs AZT/3TC, −0.39 (2.41)%; between-group P = .07; lumbar spine, TDF/FTC, −1.50 (3.49)% vs AZT/3TC, +0.25 (2.82)%; between-group P = .06), but they did not reach statistical significance. Greater declines in lumbar spine BMD correlated with greater increases in OC (r = −0.28; P = .05). The effect of TDF/FTC on bone biomarkers remained significant when adjusted for baseline biomarker levels, gender, and ethnicity. There was no difference in change in PTH levels over 48 weeks between treatment groups (between-group P = .23). All biomarkers increased significantly from weeks 0 to 48 in the switch group, with no significant change in those remaining on AZT/3TC (between-group, all biomarkers, P < .0001). Conclusion: A switch to TDF/FTC compared to remaining on a stable regimen is associated with increases in bone turnover that correlate with reductions in BMD, suggesting that TDF exposure directly affects bone metabolism in vivo.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

Time-dependent vascular regression and permeability changes in established human tumor xenografts induced by an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor/vascular permeability factor antibody

The hyperpermeability of tumor vessels to macromolecules, compared with normal vessels, is presumably due to vascular endothelial growth factor/vascular permeability factor (VEGF/VPF) released by neoplastic and/or host cells. In addition, VEGF/VPF is a potent angiogenic factor. Removal of this growth factor may reduce the permeability and inhibit tumor angiogenesis. To test these hypotheses, we transplanted a human glioblastoma (U87), a human colon adenocarcinoma (LS174T), and a human melanoma (P-MEL) into two locations in immunodeficient mice: the cranial window and the dorsal skinfold chamber. The mice bearing vascularized tumors were treated with a bolus (0.2 ml) of either a neutralizing antibody (A4.6.1) (492 μg/ml) against VEGF/VPF or PBS (control). We found that tumor vascular permeability to albumin in antibody-treated groups was lower than in the matched controls and that the effect of the antibody was time-dependent and influenced by the mode of injection. Tumor vascular permeability did not respond to i.p. injection of the antibody until 4 days posttreatment. However, the permeability was reduced within 6 h after i.v. injection of the same amount of antibody. In addition to the reduction in vascular permeability, the tumor vessels became smaller in diameter and less tortuous after antibody injections and eventually disappeared from the surface after four consecutive treatments in U87 tumors. These results demonstrate that tumor vascular permeability can be reduced by neutralization of endogenous VEGF/VPF and suggest that angiogenesis and the maintenance of integrity of tumor vessels require the presence of VEGF/VPF in the tissue microenvironment. The latter finding reveals a new mechanism of tumor vessel regression—i.e., blocking the interactions between VEGF/VPF and endothelial cells or inhibiting VEGF/VPF synthesis in solid tumors causes dramatic reduction in vessel diameter, which may block the passage of blood elements and thus lead to vascular regression.

The role of prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex in task switching

Human ability to switch from one cognitive task to another involves both endogenous preparation without an external stimulus and exogenous adjustment in response to the external stimulus. In an event-related functional MRI study, participants performed pairs of two tasks that are either the same (task repetition) or different (task switch) from each other. On half of the trials, foreknowledge about task repetition or task switch was available. On the other half, it was not. Endogenous preparation seems to involve lateral prefrontal cortex (BA 46/45) and posterior parietal cortex (BA 40). During preparation, higher activation increases in inferior lateral prefrontal cortex and superior posterior parietal cortex were associated with foreknowledge than with no foreknowledge. Exogenous adjustment seems to involve superior prefrontal cortex (BA 8) and posterior parietal cortex (BA 39/40) in general. During a task switch with no foreknowledge, activations in these areas were relatively higher than during a task repetition with no foreknowledge. These results suggest that endogenous preparation and exogenous adjustment for a task switch may be independent processes involving different brain areas.

Endogenous c-src as a determinant of the tumorigenicity of src oncogenes.

We have compared the tumorigenicity of two src oncogenes, v-src and c-src(527), whose respective protein products pp60v-src and pp60c-src(527) show a different spectrum of amino acid substitutions vis-à-vis the c-src protooncogene-encoded product pp60c-src. Whereas the extent of primary tumor growth induced by c-src(527) was quite similar in the two chicken lines tested, the extent of v-src-induced tumor growth showed a marked line dependence. As examined with a line of chickens that shows immune-mediated regression of v-src-induced tumors, a weaker tumor immunity, as correlated with a greater level of primary tumor growth, resulted from inoculation of c-src(527) DNA than of v-src DNA. These observations indicated that the v-src-specific amino acid substitutions define a major tumor antigenicity. That a separate src-associated antigenicity is also targetable by the tumor immune response followed from the finding that the level of protective immunity against the growth of c-src(527) DNA-induced tumors was augmented under conditions of the prior regression of v-src DNA-induced tumors. As this latter antigenicity may include one or more c-src(527)-encoded peptides that are equivalent to c-src-encoded self peptides, these observations suggest that a host tolerance to pp60c-src can be broken so as to permit a tumor immune response based on recognition of self peptides of pp60c-src(527).

Recovering Natural History: Modeling Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Presence of Endogenous Medication Use

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Islet Neogenesis-associated Protein (ingap): The Role Of Its Endogenous Production As A Positive Modulator Of Insulin Secretion.

Islet neogenesis-associated protein (INGAP) is a peptide found in pancreatic exocrine-, duct- and islet- non-β-cells from normal hamsters. Its increase induced by either its exogenous administration or by the overexpression of its gene enhances β-cell secretory function and increases β-cell mass by a combination of stimulation of cell replication and islet neogenesis and reduction of β-cell apoptosis. We studied the potential modulatory role of endogenous INGAP in insulin secretion using two different experimental approaches. Hamster islets transfected with INGAP-small interfering RNA (INGAP-siRNA) were used to study glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS). In parallel, freshly isolated islets were incubated with high glucose and the same concentration of either a specific anti-INGAP rabbit serum or normal rabbit serum. INGAP-siRNA transfected islets reduced their INGAP mRNA and protein content by 35.1% and 47.2%, respectively whereas GSIS decreased by 25.8%. GSIS by transfected islets attained levels comparable to those recorded in control islets when INGAP pentadecapeptide (INGAP-PP) was added to the culture medium. INGAP antibody in the medium decreased significantly GSIS in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that endogenous INGAP plays a physiological positive modulatory role in insulin secretion, supporting its possible use in the treatment of prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes.

Rapidly Switching Multidirectional Defibrillation: Reversal Of Ventricular Fibrillation With Lower Energy Shocks.

Cardiac arrest after open surgery has an incidence of approximately 3%, of which more than 50% of the cases are due to ventricular fibrillation. Electrical defibrillation is the most effective therapy for terminating cardiac arrhythmias associated with unstable hemodynamics. The excitation threshold of myocardial microstructures is lower when external electrical fields are applied in the longitudinal direction with respect to the major axis of cells. However, in the heart, cell bundles are disposed in several directions. Improved myocardial excitation and defibrillation have been achieved by applying shocks in multiple directions via intracardiac leads, but the results are controversial when the electrodes are not located within the cardiac chambers. This study was designed to test whether rapidly switching shock delivery in 3 directions could increase the efficiency of direct defibrillation. A multidirectional defibrillator and paddles bearing 3 electrodes each were developed and used in vivo for the reversal of electrically induced ventricular fibrillation in an anesthetized open-chest swine model. Direct defibrillation was performed by unidirectional and multidirectional shocks applied in an alternating fashion. Survival analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of defibrillation and the shock energy. Compared with shock delivery in a single direction in the same animal population, the shock energy required for multidirectional defibrillation was 20% to 30% lower (P < .05) within a wide range of success probabilities. Rapidly switching multidirectional shock delivery required lower shock energy for ventricular fibrillation termination and may be a safer alternative for restoring cardiac sinus rhythm.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Hypobromous Acid, A Powerful Endogenous Electrophile: Experimental And Theoretical Studies.

Hypobromous acid (HOBr) is an inorganic acid produced by the oxidation of the bromide anion (Br(-)). The blood plasma level of Br(-) is more than 1,000-fold lower than that of chloride anion (Cl(-)). Consequently, the endogenous production of HOBr is also lower compared to hypochlorous acid (HOCl). Nevertheless, there is much evidence of the deleterious effects of HOBr. From these data, we hypothesized that the reactivity of HOBr could be better associated with its electrophilic strength. Our hypothesis was confirmed, since HOBr was significantly more reactive than HOCl when the oxidability of the studied compounds was not relevant. For instance: anisole (HOBr, k2=2.3×10(2)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl non-reactive); dansylglycine (HOBr, k2=7.3×10(6)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl, 5.2×10(2)M(-1)s(-1)); salicylic acid (HOBr, k2=4.0×10(4)M(-1)s(-1), non-reactive); 3-hydroxybenzoic acid (HOBr, k2=5.9×10(4)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl, k2=1.1×10(1)M(-1)s(-1)); uridine (HOBr, k2=1.3×10(3)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl non-reactive). The compounds 4-bromoanisole and 5-bromouridine were identified as the products of the reactions between HOBr and anisole or uridine, respectively, i.e. typical products of electrophilic substitutions. Together, these results show that, rather than an oxidant, HOBr is a powerful electrophilic reactant. This chemical property was theoretically confirmed by measuring the positive Mulliken and ChelpG charges upon bromine and chlorine. In conclusion, the high electrophilicity of HOBr could be behind its well-established deleterious effects. We propose that HOBr is the most powerful endogenous electrophile.

Comparing Near-infrared Conventional Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy And Hyperspectral Imaging For Determination Of The Bulk Properties Of Solid Samples By Multivariate Regression: Determination Of Mooney Viscosity And Plasticity Indices Of Natural Rubber.

Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

Effect Of Pain Chronification And Chronic Pain On An Endogenous Pain Modulation Circuit In Rats.

We tested the hypothesis that chronic pain development (pain chronification) and ongoing chronic pain (chronic pain) reduce the activity and induce plastic changes in an endogenous analgesia circuit, the ascending nociceptive control. An important mechanism mediating this form of endogenous analgesia, referred to as capsaicin-induced analgesia, is its dependence on nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms. Therefore, we also investigated whether pain chronification and chronic pain alter the requirement for nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms in capsaicin-induced analgesia. We used an animal model of pain chronification in which daily subcutaneous prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) injections into the rat's hind paw for 14 days, referred to as the induction period of persistent hyperalgesia, induce a long-lasting state of nociceptor sensitization referred to as the maintenance period of persistent hyperalgesia, that lasts for at least 30 days following the cessation of the PGE2 treatment. The nociceptor hypersensitivity was measured by the shortening of the time interval for the animal to respond to a mechanical stimulation of the hind paw. We found a significant reduction in the duration of capsaicin-induced analgesia during the induction and maintenance period of persistent mechanical hyperalgesia. Intra-accumbens injection of the μ-opioid receptor selective antagonist Cys(2),Tyr(3),Orn(5),Pen(7)amide (CTOP) 10 min before the subcutaneous injection of capsaicin into the rat's fore paw blocked capsaicin-induced analgesia. Taken together, these findings indicate that pain chronification and chronic pain reduce the duration of capsaicin-induced analgesia, without affecting its dependence on nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms. The attenuation of endogenous analgesia during pain chronification and chronic pain suggests that endogenous pain circuits play an important role in the development and maintenance of chronic pain.

Reproductive behavior, development and eye regression in the cave armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus Reis, 1987 (Siluriformes: Loricariidae), breed in laboratory

The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.