A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

How complex a dynamical network can be?

Positive Lyapunov exponents measure the asymptotic exponential divergence of nearby trajectories of a dynamical system. Not only they quantify how chaotic a dynamical system is, but since their sum is an upper bound for the rate of information production, they also provide a convenient way to quantify the complexity of a dynamical network. We conjecture based on numerical evidences that for a large class of dynamical networks composed by equal nodes, the sum of the positive Lyapunov exponents is bounded by the sum of all the positive Lyapunov exponents of both the synchronization manifold and its transversal directions, the last quantity being in principle easier to compute than the latter. As applications of our conjecture we: (i) show that a dynamical network composed of equal nodes and whose nodes are fully linearly connected produces more information than similar networks but whose nodes are connected with any other possible connecting topology; (ii) show how one can calculate upper bounds for the information production of realistic networks whose nodes have parameter mismatches, randomly chosen: (iii) discuss how to predict the behavior of a large dynamical network by knowing the information provided by a system composed of only two coupled nodes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DYNAMICS AT INFINITY of A CUBIC CHUA'S SYSTEM

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On an Optimal Linear Control Applied to a Non-Ideal Load Transportation System, Modeled with Periodic Coefficients

In this paper, a load transportation system in platforms or suspended by cables is considered. It is a monorail device and is modelled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a DC motor. The governing equations of motion were derived via Lagrange's equations. In the mathematical model we consider the interaction between the DC motor and the dynamical system, that is, we have a so-called non-ideal periodic problem. The problem is analysed and we also developed an optimal linear control design to stabilize the problem.

On an optimal control design for Rossler system

In this Letter, an optimal control strategy that directs the chaotic motion of the Rossler system to any desired fixed point is proposed. The chaos control problem is then formulated as being an infinite horizon optimal control nonlinear problem that was reduced to a solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We obtained its solution among the correspondent Lyapunov functions of the considered dynamical system. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Control of an Ideal/Nonideal Load Transportation System With Periodic Coefficients

In this paper, a loads transportation system in platforms or suspended by cables is considered. It is a monorail device and is modeled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a dc motor the governing equations of motion were derived via Lagrange's equations. In the mathematical model we consider the interaction between the dc motor and the dynamical system, that is, we have a so called nonideal periodic problem. The problem is analyzed, qualitatively, through the comparison of the stability diagrams, numerically obtained, for several motor torque constants. Furthermore, we also analyze the problem quantitatively using the Floquet multipliers technique. Finally, we devise a control for the studied nonideal problem. The method that was used for analysis and control of this nonideal periodic system is based on the Chebyshev polynomial exponsion, the Picard iterative method, and the Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F transformation). We call it Sinha's theory.

Behavioural Analysis of a Nonlinear Mechanical System Using Transient Trajectories

This work aims at a better comprehension of the features of the solution surface of a dynamical system presenting a numerical procedure based on transient trajectories. For a given set of initial conditions an analysis is made, similar to that of a return map, looking for the new configuration of this set in the first Poincaré sections. The mentioned set of I.C. will result in a curve that can be fitted by a polynomial, i.e. an analytical expression that will be called initial function in the undamped case and transient function in the damped situation. Thus, it is possible to identify using analytical methods the main stable regions of the phase portrait without a long computational time, making easier a global comprehension of the nonlinear dynamics and the corresponding stability analysis of its solutions. This strategy allows foreseeing the dynamic behavior of the system close to the region of fundamental resonance, providing a better visualization of the structure of its phase portrait. The application chosen to present this methodology is a mechanical pendulum driven through a crankshaft that moves horizontally its suspension point.

On the analytical solution for the slewing flexible beam-like system: analysis of the linear part of the perturbed problem

The dynamical system investigated in this work is a nonlinear flexible beam-like structure in slewing motion. Non-dimensional and perturbed governing equations of motion are presented. The analytical solution for the linear part of these perturbed equations for ideal and for non-ideal cases are obtained. This solution is necessary for the investigation of the complete weak nonlinear problem where all nonlinearities are small perturbations around a linear known solution. This investigation shall help the analyst in the modelling of dynamical systems with structure- actuator interactions.

Dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles moving in a driven potential well with different time perturbation

We consider dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles confined to an infinite box of potential and containing a time-dependent potential well described by different nonlinear functions. For smooth functions, the phase space contains chaotic trajectories, periodic islands and invariant spanning curves preventing the unlimited particle diffusion along the energy axis. Average properties of the chaotic sea are characterised as a function of the control parameters and exponents describing their behaviour show no dependence on the perturbation functions. Given invariant spanning curves are present in the phase space, a sticky region was observed and show to modify locally the diffusion of the particles. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Sliding vector fields for non-smooth dynamical systems having intersecting switching manifolds

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Continuity of Dynamical Structures for Nonautonomous Evolution Equations Under Singular Perturbations

In this paper we study the continuity of invariant sets for nonautonomous infinite-dimensional dynamical systems under singular perturbations. We extend the existing results on lower-semicontinuity of attractors of autonomous and nonautonomous dynamical systems. This is accomplished through a detailed analysis of the structure of the invariant sets and its behavior under perturbation. We prove that a bounded hyperbolic global solutions persists under singular perturbations and that their nonlinear unstable manifold behave continuously. To accomplish this, we need to establish results on roughness of exponential dichotomies under these singular perturbations. Our results imply that, if the limiting pullback attractor of a nonautonomous dynamical system is the closure of a countable union of unstable manifolds of global bounded hyperbolic solutions, then it behaves continuously (upper and lower) under singular perturbations.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Effect of a variable delay in delayed dynamical systems

We report numerical evidence of the effects of a periodic modulation in the delay time of a delayed dynamical system. By referring to a Mackey-Glass equation and by adding a modula- tion in the delay time, we describe how the solution of the system passes from being chaotic to shadow periodic states. We analyze this transition for both sinusoidal and sawtooth wave mod- ulations, and we give, in the latter case, the relationship between the period of the shadowed orbit and the amplitude of the modulation. Future goals and open questions are highlighted.

A method for revealing phase space structures of general time dependent dynamical systems

In this paper we develop new techniques for revealing geometrical structures in phase space that are valid for aperiodically time dependent dynamical systems, which we refer to as Lagrangian descriptors. These quantities are based on the integration, for a finite time, along trajectories of an intrinsic bounded, positive geometrical and/or physical property of the trajectory itself. We discuss a general methodology for constructing Lagrangian descriptors, and we discuss a “heuristic argument” that explains why this method is successful for revealing geometrical structures in the phase space of a dynamical system. We support this argument by explicit calculations on a benchmark problem having a hyperbolic fixed point with stable and unstable manifolds that are known analytically. Several other benchmark examples are considered that allow us the assess the performance of Lagrangian descriptors in revealing invariant tori and regions of shear. Throughout the paper “side-by-side” comparisons of the performance of Lagrangian descriptors with both finite time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) and finite time averages of certain components of the vector field (“time averages”) are carried out and discussed. In all cases Lagrangian descriptors are shown to be both more accurate and computationally efficient than these methods. We also perform computations for an explicitly three dimensional, aperiodically time-dependent vector field and an aperiodically time dependent vector field defined as a data set. Comparisons with FTLEs and time averages for these examples are also carried out, with similar conclusions as for the benchmark examples.