Second law analysis and simulation techniques for the energy optimization of buildings

The research activity described in this thesis is focused mainly on the study of finite-element techniques applied to thermo-fluid dynamic problems of plant components and on the study of dynamic simulation techniques applied to integrated building design in order to enhance the energy performance of the building. The first part of this doctorate thesis is a broad dissertation on second law analysis of thermodynamic processes with the purpose of including the issue of the energy efficiency of buildings within a wider cultural context which is usually not considered by professionals in the energy sector. In particular, the first chapter includes, a rigorous scheme for the deduction of the expressions for molar exergy and molar flow exergy of pure chemical fuels. The study shows that molar exergy and molar flow exergy coincide when the temperature and pressure of the fuel are equal to those of the environment in which the combustion reaction takes place. A simple method to determine the Gibbs free energy for non-standard values of the temperature and pressure of the environment is then clarified. For hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and several hydrocarbons, the dependence of the molar exergy on the temperature and relative humidity of the environment is reported, together with an evaluation of molar exergy and molar flow exergy when the temperature and pressure of the fuel are different from those of the environment. As an application of second law analysis, a comparison of the thermodynamic efficiency of a condensing boiler and of a heat pump is also reported. The second chapter presents a study of borehole heat exchangers, that is, a polyethylene piping network buried in the soil which allows a ground-coupled heat pump to exchange heat with the ground. After a brief overview of low-enthalpy geothermal plants, an apparatus designed and assembled by the author to carry out thermal response tests is presented. Data obtained by means of in situ thermal response tests are reported and evaluated by means of a finite-element simulation method, implemented through the software package COMSOL Multyphysics. The simulation method allows the determination of the precise value of the effective thermal properties of the ground and of the grout, which are essential for the design of borehole heat exchangers. In addition to the study of a single plant component, namely the borehole heat exchanger, in the third chapter is presented a thorough process for the plant design of a zero carbon building complex. The plant is composed of: 1) a ground-coupled heat pump system for space heating and cooling, with electricity supplied by photovoltaic solar collectors; 2) air dehumidifiers; 3) thermal solar collectors to match 70% of domestic hot water energy use, and a wood pellet boiler for the remaining domestic hot water energy use and for exceptional winter peaks. This chapter includes the design methodology adopted: 1) dynamic simulation of the building complex with the software package TRNSYS for evaluating the energy requirements of the building complex; 2) ground-coupled heat pumps modelled by means of TRNSYS; and 3) evaluation of the total length of the borehole heat exchanger by an iterative method developed by the author. An economic feasibility and an exergy analysis of the proposed plant, compared with two other plants, are reported. The exergy analysis was performed by considering the embodied energy of the components of each plant and the exergy loss during the functioning of the plants.

Dynamic computer simulations of electrophoresis: three decades of active research

Dynamic models for electrophoresis are based upon model equations derived from the transport concepts in solution together with user-inputted conditions. They are able to predict theoretically the movement of ions and are as such the most versatile tool to explore the fundamentals of electrokinetic separations. Since its inception three decades ago, the state of dynamic computer simulation software and its use has progressed significantly and Electrophoresis played a pivotal role in that endeavor as a large proportion of the fundamental and application papers were published in this periodical. Software is available that simulates all basic electrophoretic systems, including moving boundary electrophoresis, zone electrophoresis, ITP, IEF and EKC, and their combinations under almost exactly the same conditions used in the laboratory. This has been employed to show the detailed mechanisms of many of the fundamental phenomena that occur in electrophoretic separations. Dynamic electrophoretic simulations are relevant for separations on any scale and instrumental format, including free-fluid preparative, gel, capillary and chip electrophoresis. This review includes a historical overview, a survey of current simulators, simulation examples and a discussion of the applications and achievements of dynamic simulation.

Simulation, Design and Analysis of Air-Breathing Combined-Cycle Engines for High Speed Propulsion

Desde la aparición del turborreactor, el motor aeróbico con turbomaquinaria ha demostrado unas prestaciones excepcionales en los regímenes subsónico y supersónico bajo. No obstante, la operación a velocidades superiores requiere sistemas más complejos y pesados, lo cual ha imposibilitado la ejecución de estos conceptos. Los recientes avances tecnológicos, especialmente en materiales ligeros, han restablecido el interés por los motores de ciclo combinado. La simulación numérica de estos nuevos conceptos es esencial para estimar las prestaciones de la planta propulsiva, así como para abordar las dificultades de integración entre célula y motor durante las primeras etapas de diseño. Al mismo tiempo, la evaluación de estos extraordinarios motores requiere una metodología de análisis distinta. La tesis doctoral versa sobre el diseño y el análisis de los mencionados conceptos propulsivos mediante el modelado numérico y la simulación dinámica con herramientas de vanguardia. Las distintas arquitecturas presentadas por los ciclos combinados basados en sendos turborreactor y motor cohete, así como los diversos sistemas comprendidos en cada uno de ellos, hacen necesario establecer una referencia común para su evaluación. Es más, la tendencia actual hacia aeronaves "más eléctricas" requiere una nueva métrica para juzgar la aptitud de un proceso de generación de empuje en el que coexisten diversas formas de energía. A este respecto, la combinación del Primer y Segundo Principios define, en un marco de referencia absoluto, la calidad de la trasferencia de energía entre los diferentes sistemas. Esta idea, que se ha estado empleando desde hace mucho tiempo en el análisis de plantas de potencia terrestres, ha sido extendida para relacionar la misión de la aeronave con la ineficiencia de cada proceso involucrado en la generación de empuje. La metodología se ilustra mediante el estudio del motor de ciclo combinado variable de una aeronave para el crucero a Mach 5. El diseño de un acelerador de ciclo combinado basado en el turborreactor sirve para subrayar la importancia de la integración del motor y la célula. El diseño está limitado por la trayectoria ascensional y el espacio disponible en la aeronave de crucero supersónico. Posteriormente se calculan las prestaciones instaladas de la planta propulsiva en función de la velocidad y la altitud de vuelo y los parámetros de control del motor: relación de compresión, relación aire/combustible y área de garganta. ABSTRACT Since the advent of the turbojet, the air-breathing engine with rotating machinery has demonstrated exceptional performance in the subsonic and low supersonic regimes. However, the operation at higher speeds requires further system complexity and weight, which so far has impeded the realization of these concepts. Recent technology developments, especially in lightweight materials, have restored the interest towards combined-cycle engines. The numerical simulation of these new concepts is essential at the early design stages to compute a first estimate of the engine performance in addition to addressing airframe-engine integration issues. In parallel, a different analysis methodology is required to evaluate these unconventional engines. The doctoral thesis concerns the design and analysis of the aforementioned engine concepts by means of numerical modeling and dynamic simulation with state-of-the-art tools. A common reference is needed to evaluate the different architectures of the turbine and the rocket-based combined-cycle engines as well as the various systems within each one of them. Furthermore, the actual trend towards more electric aircraft necessitates a common metric to judge the suitability of a thrust generation process where different forms of energy coexist. In line with this, the combination of the First and the Second Laws yields the quality of the energy being transferred between the systems on an absolute reference frame. This idea, which has been since long applied to the analysis of on-ground power plants, was extended here to relate the aircraft mission with the inefficiency of every process related to the thrust generation. The methodology is illustrated with the study of a variable- combined-cycle engine for a Mach 5 cruise aircraft. The design of a turbine-based combined-cycle booster serves to highlight the importance of the engine-airframe integration. The design is constrained by the ascent trajectory and the allocated space in the supersonic cruise aircraft. The installed performance of the propulsive plant is then computed as a function of the flight speed and altitude and the engine control parameters: pressure ratio, air-to-fuel ratio and throat area.

Co-simulation Methodologies for Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Dynamics

In recent decades, full electric and hybrid electric vehicles have emerged as an alternative to conventional cars due to a range of factors, including environmental and economic aspects. These vehicles are the result of considerable efforts to seek ways of reducing the use of fossil fuel for vehicle propulsion. Sophisticated technologies such as hybrid and electric powertrains require careful study and optimization. Mathematical models play a key role at this point. Currently, many advanced mathematical analysis tools, as well as computer applications have been built for vehicle simulation purposes. Given the great interest of hybrid and electric powertrains, along with the increasing importance of reliable computer-based models, the author decided to integrate both aspects in the research purpose of this work. Furthermore, this is one of the first final degree projects held at the ETSII (Higher Technical School of Industrial Engineers) that covers the study of hybrid and electric propulsion systems. The present project is based on MBS3D 2.0, a specialized software for the dynamic simulation of multibody systems developed at the UPM Institute of Automobile Research (INSIA). Automobiles are a clear example of complex multibody systems, which are present in nearly every field of engineering. The work presented here benefits from the availability of MBS3D software. This program has proven to be a very efficient tool, with a highly developed underlying mathematical formulation. On this basis, the focus of this project is the extension of MBS3D features in order to be able to perform dynamic simulations of hybrid and electric vehicle models. This requires the joint simulation of the mechanical model of the vehicle, together with the model of the hybrid or electric powertrain. These sub-models belong to completely different physical domains. In fact the powertrain consists of energy storage systems, electrical machines and power electronics, connected to purely mechanical components (wheels, suspension, transmission, clutch…). The challenge today is to create a global vehicle model that is valid for computer simulation. Therefore, the main goal of this project is to apply co-simulation methodologies to a comprehensive model of an electric vehicle, where sub-models from different areas of engineering are coupled. The created electric vehicle (EV) model consists of a separately excited DC electric motor, a Li-ion battery pack, a DC/DC chopper converter and a multibody vehicle model. Co-simulation techniques allow car designers to simulate complex vehicle architectures and behaviors, which are usually difficult to implement in a real environment due to safety and/or economic reasons. In addition, multi-domain computational models help to detect the effects of different driving patterns and parameters and improve the models in a fast and effective way. Automotive designers can greatly benefit from a multidisciplinary approach of new hybrid and electric vehicles. In this case, the global electric vehicle model includes an electrical subsystem and a mechanical subsystem. The electrical subsystem consists of three basic components: electric motor, battery pack and power converter. A modular representation is used for building the dynamic model of the vehicle drivetrain. This means that every component of the drivetrain (submodule) is modeled separately and has its own general dynamic model, with clearly defined inputs and outputs. Then, all the particular submodules are assembled according to the drivetrain configuration and, in this way, the power flow across the components is completely determined. Dynamic models of electrical components are often based on equivalent circuits, where Kirchhoff’s voltage and current laws are applied to draw the algebraic and differential equations. Here, Randles circuit is used for dynamic modeling of the battery and the electric motor is modeled through the analysis of the equivalent circuit of a separately excited DC motor, where the power converter is included. The mechanical subsystem is defined by MBS3D equations. These equations consider the position, velocity and acceleration of all the bodies comprising the vehicle multibody system. MBS3D 2.0 is entirely written in MATLAB and the structure of the program has been thoroughly studied and understood by the author. MBS3D software is adapted according to the requirements of the applied co-simulation method. Some of the core functions are modified, such as integrator and graphics, and several auxiliary functions are added in order to compute the mathematical model of the electrical components. By coupling and co-simulating both subsystems, it is possible to evaluate the dynamic interaction among all the components of the drivetrain. ‘Tight-coupling’ method is used to cosimulate the sub-models. This approach integrates all subsystems simultaneously and the results of the integration are exchanged by function-call. This means that the integration is done jointly for the mechanical and the electrical subsystem, under a single integrator and then, the speed of integration is determined by the slower subsystem. Simulations are then used to show the performance of the developed EV model. However, this project focuses more on the validation of the computational and mathematical tool for electric and hybrid vehicle simulation. For this purpose, a detailed study and comparison of different integrators within the MATLAB environment is done. Consequently, the main efforts are directed towards the implementation of co-simulation techniques in MBS3D software. In this regard, it is not intended to create an extremely precise EV model in terms of real vehicle performance, although an acceptable level of accuracy is achieved. The gap between the EV model and the real system is filled, in a way, by introducing the gas and brake pedals input, which reflects the actual driver behavior. This input is included directly in the differential equations of the model, and determines the amount of current provided to the electric motor. For a separately excited DC motor, the rotor current is proportional to the traction torque delivered to the car wheels. Therefore, as it occurs in the case of real vehicle models, the propulsion torque in the mathematical model is controlled through acceleration and brake pedal commands. The designed transmission system also includes a reduction gear that adapts the torque coming for the motor drive and transfers it. The main contribution of this project is, therefore, the implementation of a new calculation path for the wheel torques, based on performance characteristics and outputs of the electric powertrain model. Originally, the wheel traction and braking torques were input to MBS3D through a vector directly computed by the user in a MATLAB script. Now, they are calculated as a function of the motor current which, in turn, depends on the current provided by the battery pack across the DC/DC chopper converter. The motor and battery currents and voltages are the solutions of the electrical ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) system coupled to the multibody system. Simultaneously, the outputs of MBS3D model are the position, velocity and acceleration of the vehicle at all times. The motor shaft speed is computed from the output vehicle speed considering the wheel radius, the gear reduction ratio and the transmission efficiency. This motor shaft speed, somehow available from MBS3D model, is then introduced in the differential equations corresponding to the electrical subsystem. In this way, MBS3D and the electrical powertrain model are interconnected and both subsystems exchange values resulting as expected with tight-coupling approach.When programming mathematical models of complex systems, code optimization is a key step in the process. A way to improve the overall performance of the integration, making use of C/C++ as an alternative programming language, is described and implemented. Although this entails a higher computational burden, it leads to important advantages regarding cosimulation speed and stability. In order to do this, it is necessary to integrate MATLAB with another integrated development environment (IDE), where C/C++ code can be generated and executed. In this project, C/C++ files are programmed in Microsoft Visual Studio and the interface between both IDEs is created by building C/C++ MEX file functions. These programs contain functions or subroutines that can be dynamically linked and executed from MATLAB. This process achieves reductions in simulation time up to two orders of magnitude. The tests performed with different integrators, also reveal the stiff character of the differential equations corresponding to the electrical subsystem, and allow the improvement of the cosimulation process. When varying the parameters of the integration and/or the initial conditions of the problem, the solutions of the system of equations show better dynamic response and stability, depending on the integrator used. Several integrators, with variable and non-variable step-size, and for stiff and non-stiff problems are applied to the coupled ODE system. Then, the results are analyzed, compared and discussed. From all the above, the project can be divided into four main parts: 1. Creation of the equation-based electric vehicle model; 2. Programming, simulation and adjustment of the electric vehicle model; 3. Application of co-simulation methodologies to MBS3D and the electric powertrain subsystem; and 4. Code optimization and study of different integrators. Additionally, in order to deeply understand the context of the project, the first chapters include an introduction to basic vehicle dynamics, current classification of hybrid and electric vehicles and an explanation of the involved technologies such as brake energy regeneration, electric and non-electric propulsion systems for EVs and HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles) and their control strategies. Later, the problem of dynamic modeling of hybrid and electric vehicles is discussed. The integrated development environment and the simulation tool are also briefly described. The core chapters include an explanation of the major co-simulation methodologies and how they have been programmed and applied to the electric powertrain model together with the multibody system dynamic model. Finally, the last chapters summarize the main results and conclusions of the project and propose further research topics. In conclusion, co-simulation methodologies are applicable within the integrated development environments MATLAB and Visual Studio, and the simulation tool MBS3D 2.0, where equation-based models of multidisciplinary subsystems, consisting of mechanical and electrical components, are coupled and integrated in a very efficient way.

Simulation modelling applied to runoff modelling using mapscript

Dynamic spatial analysis addresses computational aspects of space–time processing. This paper describes the development of a spatial analysis tool and modelling framework that together offer a solution for simulating landscape processes. A better approach to integrating landscape spatial analysis with Geographical Information Systems is advocated in this paper. Enhancements include special spatial operators and map algebra language constructs to handle dispersal and advective flows over landscape surfaces. These functional components to landscape modelling are developed in a modular way and are linked together in a modelling framework that performs dynamic simulation. The concepts and modelling framework are demonstrated using a hydrological modelling example. The approach provides a modelling environment for scientists and land resource managers to write and to visualize spatial process models with ease.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

A study of the dynamic behaviour of a pulsed column solvent extraction plant

A study has been made of the dynamic behaviour of a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant utilising pulsed solvent extraction columns. A flowsheet is presented and the choice of an extraction device is discussed. The plant is described by a series of modules each module representing an item of equipment. Each module consists of a series of differential equations describing the dynamic behaviour of the equipment. The model is written in PMSP, a language developed for dynamic simulation models. The differential equations are solved to predict plant behaviour with time. The dynamic response of the plant to a range of disturbances has been assessed. The interactions between pulsed columns have been demonstrated and illustrated. The importance of auxillary items of equipment to plant performance is demonstrated. Control of the reprocessing plant is considered and the effect of control parameters on performance assessed.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

Dynamic Modeling and Seasonal Performance Evaluation of Air-to-Water Heat Pump Systems

In this Thesis a series of numerical models for the evaluation of the seasonal performance of reversible air-to-water heat pump systems coupled to residential and non-residential buildings are presented. The exploitation of the energy saving potential linked to the adoption of heat pumps is a hard task for designers due to the influence on their energy performance of several factors, like the external climate variability, the heat pump modulation capacity, the system control strategy and the hydronic loop configuration. The aim of this work is to study in detail all these aspects. In the first part of this Thesis a series of models which use a temperature class approach for the prediction of the seasonal performance of reversible air source heat pumps are shown. An innovative methodology for the calculation of the seasonal performance of an air-to-water heat pump has been proposed as an extension of the procedure reported by the European standard EN 14825. This methodology can be applied not only to air-to-water single-stage heat pumps (On-off HPs) but also to multi-stage (MSHPs) and inverter-driven units (IDHPs). In the second part, dynamic simulation has been used with the aim to optimize the control systems of the heat pump and of the HVAC plant. A series of dynamic models, developed by means of TRNSYS, are presented to study the behavior of On-off HPs, MSHPs and IDHPs. The main goal of these dynamic simulations is to show the influence of the heat pump control strategies and of the lay-out of the hydronic loop used to couple the heat pump to the emitters on the seasonal performance of the system. A particular focus is given to the modeling of the energy losses linked to on-off cycling.

Simulação da varredura da superfície por um cortador de base segmentado

Base cutting and feeding into harvesters of plants lying close to the ground surface require an efficient sweeping action of the cutting mechanism. It is not the case of conventional sugarcane harvesters which have rigid blades mounted on discs capable to contaminate the cane with dirt as well as damage the ratoons. The objective of this work was to simulate the sweeping performance of a segmented base cutter. The model was developed using the laws of dynamic. Simulation included two rotational speeds (400 and 600 rpm), two cutting heights (0.12 and 0.13 m) and two disk tilting angles (-10º and -12º). The simulated sweeping angle varied between 56º and 193º, which are very promising as a mean to cutting and feeding cane sticks lying on the ground. Cutting height was the variable that affected sweeping action the most. This behavior indicates the need to have an automatic control of the cutting disk height in order to keep good sweeping performance as the harvester moves forward.

An approach of optimal sensitivity applied in the tertiary loop of the automatic generation control

This paper proposes an approach of optimal sensitivity applied in the tertiary loop of the automatic generation control. The approach is based on the theorem of non-linear perturbation. From an optimal operation point obtained by an optimal power flow a new optimal operation point is directly determined after a perturbation, i.e., without the necessity of an iterative process. This new optimal operation point satisfies the constraints of the problem for small perturbation in the loads. The participation factors and the voltage set point of the automatic voltage regulators (AVR) of the generators are determined by the technique of optimal sensitivity, considering the effects of the active power losses minimization and the network constraints. The participation factors and voltage set point of the generators are supplied directly to a computational program of dynamic simulation of the automatic generation control, named by power sensitivity mode. Test results are presented to show the good performance of this approach. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solution of a heterogeneous modeling of a horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass (HAIB) reactor by the sequencing method

A modeling study was completed to develop a methodology that combines the sequencing and finite difference methods for the simulation of a heterogeneous model of a tubular reactor applied in the treatment of wastewater. The system included a liquid phase (convection diffusion transport) and a solid phase (diffusion reaction) that was obtained by completing a mass balance in the reactor and in the particle, respectively. The model was solved using a pilot-scale horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass (HAIB) reactor to treat domestic sewage, with the concentration results compared with the experimental data. A comparison of the behavior of the liquid phase concentration profile and the experimental results indicated that both the numerical methods offer a good description of the behavior of the concentration along the reactor. The advantage of the sequencing method over the finite difference method is that it is easier to apply and requires less computational time to model the dynamic simulation of outlet response of HAIB.

Structured modeling of recombinant protein production in batch and fed-batch culture of baculovirus-infected insect cells

The infection of insect cells with baculovirus was described in a mathematical model as a part of the structured dynamic model describing whole animal cell metabolism. The model presented here is capable of simulating cell population dynamics, the concentrations of extracellular and intracellular viral components, and the heterologous product titers. The model describes the whole processes of viral infection and the effect of the infection on the host cell metabolism. Dynamic simulation of the model in batch and fed-batch mode gave good agreement between model predictions and experimental data. Optimum conditions for insect cell culture and viral infection in batch and fed-batch culture were studied using the model.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.