Computational fluid dynamic analysis of intracranial aneurysm bleb Formation (NS26P)

Purpose: The management of unruptured aneurysms remains controversial as treatment infers potential significant risk to the currently well patient. The decision to treat is based upon aneurysm location, size and abnormal morphology (e.g. bleb formation). A method to predict bleb formation would thus help stratify patient treatment. Our study aims to investigate possible associations between intra-aneurysmal flow dynamics and bleb formation within intracranial aneurysms. Competing theories on aetiology appear in the literature. Our purpose is to further clarify this issue. Methodology: We recruited data from 3D rotational angiograms (3DRA) of 30 patients with cerebral aneurysms and bleb formation. Models representing aneurysms pre-bleb formation were reconstructed by digitally removing the bleb, then computational fluid dynamics simulations were run on both pre and post bleb models. Pulsatile flow conditions and standard boundary conditions were imposed. Results: Aneurysmal flow structure, impingement regions, wall shear stress magnitude and gradients were produced for all models. Correlation of these parameters with bleb formation was sought. Certain CFD parameters show significant inter patient variability, making statistically significant correlation difficult on the partial data subset obtained currently. Conclusion: CFD models are readily producible from 3DRA data. Preliminary results indicate bleb formation appears to be related to regions of high wall shear stress and direct impingement regions of the aneurysm wall.

Dynamic optimization of migration topology in internet-based distributed genetic algorithms

Distributed Genetic Algorithms (DGAs) designed for the Internet have to take its high communication cost into consideration. For island model GAs, the migration topology has a major impact on DGA performance. This paper describes and evaluates an adaptive migration topology optimizer that keeps the communication load low while maintaining high solution quality. Experiments on benchmark problems show that the optimized topology outperforms static or random topologies of the same degree of connectivity. The applicability of the method on real-world problems is demonstrated on a hard optimization problem in VLSI design.

A non-linear dynamic analysis of heavy haul track line sleepers under wheel flat

Significant wheel-rail dynamic forces occur because of imperfections in the wheels and/or rail. One of the key responses to the transmission of these forces down through the track is impact force on the sleepers. Dynamic analysis of nonlinear systems is very complicated and does not lend itself easily to a classical solution of multiple equations. Trying to deduce the behaviour of track components from experimental data is very difficult because such data is hard to obtain and applies to only the particular conditions of the track being tested. The finite element method can be the best solution to this dilemma. This paper describes a finite element model using the software package ANSYS for various sized flat defects in the tread of a wheel rolling at a typical speed on heavy haul track. The paper explores the dynamic response of a prestressed concrete sleeper to these defects.

A dynamic mapping of the UK's creative industries

This paper argues that, despite its strengths, the UK Department of Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) classification of the creative industries contains inconsistencies which need to be addressed to make it fully fit for purpose. It presents an improved methodology which retains the strengths of the DCMS's approach while addressing its deficiencies. We focus on creative intensity: the proportion of total employment within an industry that is engaged in creative occupations.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Static and dynamic performance of lightweight hybrid composite floor plate system

In the modern built environment, building construction and demolition consume a large amount of energy and emits greenhouse gasses due to widely used conventional construction materials such as reinforced and composite concrete. These materials consume high amount of natural resources and possess high embodied energy. More energy is required to recycle or reuse such materials at the cessation of use. Therefore, it is very important to use recyclable or reusable new materials in building construction in order to conserve natural resources and reduce the energy and emissions associated with conventional materials. Advancements in materials technology have resulted in the introduction of new composite and hybrid materials in infrastructure construction as alternatives to the conventional materials. This research project has developed a lightweight and prefabricatable Hybrid Composite Floor Plate System (HCFPS) as an alternative to conventional floor system, with desirable properties, easy to construct, economical, demountable, recyclable and reusable. Component materials of HCFPS include a central Polyurethane (PU) core, outer layers of Glass-fiber Reinforced Cement (GRC) and steel laminates at tensile regions. This research work explored the structural adequacy and performance characteristics of hybridised GRC, PU and steel laminate for the development of HCFPS. Performance characteristics of HCFPS were investigated using Finite Element (FE) method simulations supported by experimental testing. Parametric studies were conducted to develop the HCFPS to satisfy static performance using sectional configurations, spans, loading and material properties as the parameters. Dynamic response of HCFPS floors was investigated by conducting parametric studies using material properties, walking frequency and damping as the parameters. Research findings show that HCFPS can be used in office and residential buildings to provide acceptable static and dynamic performance. Design guidelines were developed for this new floor system. HCFPS is easy to construct and economical compared to conventional floor systems as it is lightweight and prefabricatable floor system. This floor system can also be demounted and reused or recycled at the cessation of use due to its component materials.

Dynamic simulation of a light-weight, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe

The University of Queensland UltraCommuter concept is an ultra- light, low-drag, hybrid-electric sports coupe designed to minimize energy consumption and environmental impact while enhancing the performance, styling, features and convenience that motorists enjoy. This paper presents a detailed simulation study of the vehicle's performance and fuel economy using ADVISOR, including a detailed description of the component models and parameters assumed. Results from the study include predictions of a 0-100 kph acceleration time of ≺9s, and top speed of 170 kph, an electrical energy consumption of ≺67 Wh/km in ZEV mode and a petrol-equivalent fuel consumption of ≺2.5 L/100 km in charge-sustaining HEV mode. Overall, the results of the ADVISOR modelling confirm the UltraCommuter's potential to achieve high performance with high efficiency, and the authors look forward to a confirmation of these estimates following completion of the vehicle.

Measuring the burden of disease in Shandong province : an adoption of the disability-adjusted life year [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担]

Objective To estimate the burden of diseases in Shandong province by the means of DALY (Disability- adjusted life year) thus to investigate the key public health problems referencing for health policy making. Methods DALYs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability. We measured YLLs using the mortality data of 19 Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) in Shandong Province during 2000 and 2005. YLDs were estimated based on data for WPRO in the 2002 GBD study published by WHO. Results During this period, the average DALYs loss by all causes for the residents of DSPs in Shandong was 149.74 per thousand persons each year. Noncommunicable diseases accounted for 76.63% of the disability adjusted life years, communicable diseases and other disorders represented 14.13%, and injuries 9.24%. Nearly half of the DALYs (45%) happened among the elderly (60+). Malignant neoplasm was the number one cause of DALYs loss in the male, followed by neuropsychiatric disorder, injury, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease，etc. However, neuropsychiatric disorder possessed the largest single contributor to DALY in the female and followed by heart disease, malignant neoplasm, cerebrovascular disease and respiratory disease. Conclusion Non-communicable diseases such as circulatory diseases, neuropsychiatric disorders and malignant neoplasms were the main causes of disease burden in Shandong province. The importance of neuropsychiatric disorders was more striking and should be recognized properly. The lack of morbidity data is the main limitation of this study. Abstract in Chinese 目的 应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担,提出该地区主要卫生问题,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以山东省2000-2005年19个疾病监测点的死因监测资料为基础,利用世界卫生组织(WHO)提供的方法计算不同疾病在不同性别年龄人群所造成的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs),其中,YIJDs根据WHO公布的亚太区2002年疾病负担数据进行估算. 结果 2000-2005年山东省疾病监测系统居民因为早死和残疾年平均损失149.74个DALYs/千人,其中,76.6%的DALYs损失因慢性非传染性疾病所致,14.1%由传染性疾病等引起,9.2%因为意外伤害造成;接近1/2(45%)的DALYs损失发生在60岁以上人群;恶性肿瘤为造成男性居民DALYs损失的首位原因,其次为精神行为疾患、意外伤害、脑血管病和心脏病等,女性居民则以精神行为疾患为DALYs首位原因,其次为心脏病、恶性肿瘤、脑血管病和呼吸系统疾病. 结论 以循环系统疾病、精神行为疾惠和恶性肿瘤为首的慢性非传染性疾病为造成山东省疾病负担DALYs损失的主要原因.对于精神行为疾患的重要性的认识有待于进一步提高,研究的主要局限性在于发病率资料的缺乏.

Estimating the Burden of Malignant Neoplasm in Shandong Province [山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担研究]

Objective To make a comprehensive estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasm in Shandong province by the means of disability- adjusted life year (DALY) for the first time. Methods DALYs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability. We measured YLLs using the cancer mortality data of 19 Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) in Shandong Province during 2000 and 2005. YLDs were estimated based on the cancer morbidity data of 6 Cancer Incidence Surveillance Points in Shandong Province in 2005. Results All cancers were responsible for 20.60 DALYs for every thousand population in Shandong Province (25.30 for men and 15.74 for women) . 94.3% of the losses were due to premature death and 5.7% to disability. 31.9% of the DALYs happened among 45~59 age group. The top 10 cancers for DALYs were lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, oesophagus cancer, colon/rectum cancer, breast cancer, leukemia, brain cancer, pancreas cancer and cervix uteri cancer in turn. The burden of major cancers such as lung cancer and liver cancer in Shandong were heavier than the global and national level. Conclusions he burden of disease of malignant neoplasm is mainly because of premature death. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and oesophagus cancer are the major cancers in Shandong Province and should be paid more attention to their prevention and control. Abstract in Chinese 目的 首次应用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)对山东省居民恶性肿瘤疾病负担进行综合评价. 方法 以2000-2005年山东省疾病监测系统的恶性肿瘤死亡资料和2005年山东省恶性肿瘤发病监测系统的发病资料为基础,利用世界卫生组织提供的专门公式,计算恶性肿瘤的YLLs、YLDs和DALYs,以此评价恶性肿瘤的疾病负担. 结果 山东省每千人每年因恶性肿瘤造成20.60个DALYs损失(男性25.30,女性15.74),其中,9413%为早死所致,5.7%因残疾所致:恶性肿瘤主要导致45～59岁人群的DALYs损失,占31.93%;恶性肿瘤疾病负担前10位依次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食道癌、肠癌、乳腺癌、白血病、脑癌、胰腺癌和宫颈癌;山东省肺癌、肝癌等主要癌症疾病负担高于全球和全国水平. 结论 恶性肿瘤疾病负担主要由早死所致,肺癌、肝癌、胃癌和食道癌等主要癌症的防制地位十分突出.

Estimating the burden of malignant neoplasm on village residents in a mountainous area [山区农村居民恶性肿瘤疾病负担的估计]

Objective To make a comprehensive estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasm on village residents in Linqu County by the means of DALY (Disability-adjusted life year). Methods DALYs, YLLs and YLDs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability, based on the cancer registration data of Linqu villages during 1998-2004, in order to measure the burden of various caners. Results All cancers were responsible for 20.00 DALYs for every thousand population in Linqu County (24.82 for men and 14.96 for women). 92.5% of the losses were due to premature death and 7.5% to disability. 31.5% of the DALYs happened among 45-59 age group. The top 10 cancers for DALYs were stomach cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, oesophagus cancer, leukemia,colon/rectum cancer, brain cancer, pancreas cancer, breast cancer and bone cancer in turn. Only stomach cancer, lung cancer and liver cancer together account for 69.3% of total DALYs due to malignant neoplasm. The burden of malignant neoplasm was on rising recent years. Conclusions The burden of disease of malignant neoplasm is mainly because of premature death. Stomach cancer, lung cancer and liver cancer lead to heavier burden than the global and national levels. Abstract in Chinese 目的 应用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)对临朐县农村恶性肿瘤疾病负担进行评价. 方法 以1998～2004年临朐县农村肿瘤登记资料为基础,利用全球疾病负担研究中使用的专门公式计算恶性肿瘤的YLLs、YLDs和DALYs,以此评价各类恶性肿瘤的疾病负担. 结果 临朐农村每千人每年因恶性肿瘤造成20.0个DALYs损失(男性24.82,女性14.96),其中92.5%为早死所致,7.5%因残疾所致;恶性肿瘤主要导致45～59岁人群的DALYs损失,占31.5%;恶性肿瘤疾病负担前10位依次为胃癌、肺癌、肝癌、食道癌、白血病、肠癌、脑癌、胰腺癌、乳腺癌和骨癌,其中仅胃癌、肺癌和肝癌三大肿瘤DALYs就占全部肿瘤的69.3%;临朐县农村恶性肿瘤疾病负担有进一步上升的趋势. 结论 恶性肿瘤疾病负担主要由早死所致,胃癌、肺癌、肝癌等主要癌症疾病负担高于全球和中国区水平.

Economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担分析]

Objective: To evaluate the economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main sources for this study were the data from the third sampling survey of death cause in 2006 and cancer prevalence survey in 2007 in Shandong province. The direct medical cost was calculated based on the survey data. The indirect cost due to mortality and morbidity were estimated with human capital approach based on the data of disability-adjusted life years derived from the two surveys and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The total economic burden was the sum of direct medical cost and indirect cost. The uncertainty analysis was conducted according to the methodology in global burden of disease study. Results: The total cost of cancer in Shandong province in 2006 estimated was 18 057 million Yuan RMB (95% confidence interval:16 817 － 19 393 million), which accounted for 0. 83% of the total GDP. The direct medical cost，indirect mortality cost and indirect morbidity cost accounted for 17.28%, 78.53%, and 4.20% of total economic burden of malignant neoplasms, respectively. Liver，lung and stomach cancer were the top three tumors with heavier economic burden, with accounted for more than one half (57. 83%) of the total economic burden of all cancers. The uncertainty of total burden estimated was around ± 7%, which mainly derived from the uncertainty of indirect economic burden. Conclusion: The influence of cancers on social economy is dominated by the loss of productivity, especially by the productivity loss due to premature death. Liver, lung and stomach cancer are the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong province. Abstract in Chinese 目的 评价山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以2006年山东省第3次死因回顾抽样凋查资料和2007年山东省恶性肿瘤现患状况抽样调查资料为基础,测算全省直接医疗成本;采用人力资本法测算死亡间接负担和伤残间接负担;参考全球疾病负担研究的方法对测算结果的不确定性进行分析. 结果 2006年山东省因恶性肿瘤导致的总经济负担为180.57亿元(95%CI=16 817～19 393),占全省GDP总量的0.83%,其中直接医疗成本占总负担的17.28%,死亡造成的间接经济负担占78.53%,伤残所致间接经济负担占4.20%;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌为山东省经济负担最重的3种恶性肿瘤,总经济负担合计占全部恶性肿瘤的57.83%;总经济负担估计结果的不确定性范围在±7%左右,主要取决于间接经济负担的不确定性. 结论 恶性肿瘤对社会经济的影响主要通过生产力的损失产生作用,并以死亡所致生产力损失为主;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌应是山东省恶性肿瘤预防控制的重点.

Defining the parental burden of acute cough in children

Despite the prevalence of acute cough in children (<2 weeks duration), the burden to parents and families is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to determine the parental burden of children’s acute cough, and to evaluate psychological and other infl uences on the reported burden of acute cough in children. Methods Parents of children with a current acute cough (<2 weeks) at enrolment completed 4 questionnaires (state trait anxiety inventory (STAI); short form health survey (SF-8); depression, anxiety and stress 21-item scale (DASS21); and our preliminary 48-item parent acute cough specifi c quality of life (PAC-QOL48) questionnaire). In PAC-QOL48, lower scores refl ect worse QOL. Results Median age of the 104 children enrolled was 2.63 (IQR 1.42, 4.79) years, 54 were boys. Median length of cough at enrolment was 3 (IQR 2, 5) days. Median total PAC-QOL48 score of parents enrolled at presentation to the emergency department (n = 70) was signifi cantly worse than of parents enrolled through the community (n = 24) (p < 0.01). More than half (n = 55) had sought medical assistance more than once for the current acute coughing illness. PAC-QOL48 score was signifi cantly negatively correlated to verbal category descriptive and visual analogue scale cough scores (Spearman r = −0.26, p = 0.05 and r = −0.46, p = 0.01 respectively) and DASS21 total score (r = −0.36, p = 0.01), but not to child’s age. Conclusions Consistent with data on chronic cough, stress was the predominant factor of parental burden. This study highlights the ongoing need for clinicians to be cognizant of parental worries and concerns when their children are coughing, and for further research into safe and effective therapies for acute cough in children.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.